The economic impact of the Olympic Games is mainly realized through income and expenditure, input and output. The expenditure of hosting the Olympic Games is the economic investment of the host city. The economic impact of the Olympic Games on the host city is closely related to the Olympic investment. Within the marginal cost, the greater the investment, the greater the economic impact.
Beijing will need more infrastructure and construction funds than the industrialized countries such as the United States and Australia to host the 2008 Olympic Games, and the related investment for the 2008 Olympic Games will be around 35 billion US dollars. The Olympic Games will contribute to the economic development of the host country and help solve economic problems such as labor employment and economic restructuring. Moreover, the economic significance of hosting the Olympic Games lies not only in the year of hosting the Olympic Games, but also in the high-speed growth period of 6- 10 years. At the same time, it should be pointed out that at the end of the Olympic investment cycle, due to the sudden stall of investment, the economic development of the host city and the host country will be adversely affected, so we should consider not only the economic and social benefits during the Olympic Games, but also the economic security after the Olympic Games.
According to the analysis and calculation of China's endogenous economic growth model, it is concluded that the annual contribution of Beijing Olympic Games to China's GDP growth is 0.3%-0.5%. After 65,438+000 years of development, the modern Olympic movement has developed into the largest peaceful activity in human history. The Olympic Games is global, persistent, comprehensive, super-large, with high cultural connotation, long preparation time, huge investment, large number of participants and high competitive level. It has become a remarkable activity, with huge comprehensive social, economic, political and cultural effects, and has been widely concerned by governments and people, public opinion and business groups all over the world. The influence of the Olympic Games has surpassed any other social and cultural activities today.
The success of Beijing's Olympic bid indicates that Beijing's social economy may take the opportunity of hosting the Olympic Games to achieve faster development. The 2008 Olympic Games will have the following main impacts on Beijing's social economy:
positive impact
1. Through the analysis of the cost-benefit budget system, it is concluded that if the expenditure does not include the infrastructure expenditure, better economic benefits can be obtained.
The income sources of hosting the Olympic Games can be divided into the following modes: government investment mode; The mode of relying entirely on marketing income; Based on marketing and supplemented by government investment. According to the expenditure of Los Angeles Olympic Games, Montreal Olympic Games and Barcelona Olympic Games, we can learn from Beijing's practice of increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, expanding its influence and realizing sustainable development in 2008 Olympic Games to avoid more problems.
Exploring the economic impact mechanism of the Olympic Games shows that the Olympic Games first affects the expenditure, image and technology of the host country, and then finally reflects the changes in output, income, employment and economic growth through the interactive mechanism in the economic system. According to the research on the economic impact of 1992 Barcelona Olympic Games, 1996 Atlanta Olympic Games and 2000 Sydney Olympic Games, the operating profit and net economic benefit of the Olympic Games are positive. The absolute value of the economic impact of the Olympic Games is relatively large; The impact of the Olympic Games on the economy is not strong; The industries benefiting from the Olympic Games are relatively concentrated; Olympic Games urges the host city to increase infrastructure investment; There are differences in the economic impact of the Olympic Games.
According to the inbound tourism effect of previous Olympic Games since 1980s, the author shows that the inbound tourism effect of Olympic Games is obvious, but domestic tourism is not outstanding. The main benchmark of Olympic tourism activities is the host city and region, and the regional diffusion effect is not prominent. From the figures, the intensity of the Olympic tourism effect is not as great as people think. But the Olympic Games has a very good effect on enhancing the image of the host city. The prediction of the tourism and economic impact of the Olympic Games should be rational.
It is worth noting that the economic impact of the Olympic Games on the host city includes both positive and negative effects. Among the positive effects, the direct effects include promoting the growth of GDP, employment, the development of related industries and the improvement of investment environment in the host city. Indirect effects include improving human capital and promoting regional economic development. The negative impact refers to the idleness of sports facilities, the loss of life of urban non-beneficiaries, and the increase of social extra expenditure.
2. The Olympic economy has increased the regional economy of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei by 1.23%, creating 265,438+10,000 jobs for China.
The role of the Olympic Games in the regional growth of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei lies in the influence of economic agglomeration effect. Through the analysis, it is concluded that the scale economy produced by Beijing Olympic Games is manifested in the economic agglomeration brought by the expansion of exports to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and new enterprises and labor will be attracted to this region. This will reduce regional economic costs and improve product competitiveness. This is a dynamic process, because with the enhancement of agglomeration effect, the economic cost of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region turns to rise, which in turn produces the "diffusion effect" of economic activities transferring to other regions.
By analyzing the dynamic regional economic impact of Beijing Olympic Games from this angle, it is concluded that the host city Beijing will have an "overflow" demand effect due to hosting the Olympic Games, and Beijing will spread its economic, tourism and transportation activities to Hebei and Tianjin due to the rising economic and social costs, with an economic growth of 1.23%.
Statistics from the Finance Bureau of New South Wales, Australia show that there is a great demand for labor for hosting the Olympic Games in Sydney in 2000. Combined with the situation in China, most of the current unemployment is structural unemployment rather than cyclical unemployment. According to the supply factors of the Beijing government to the Olympic economic system and the supply elasticity of the Olympic economy to the labor market, the number of jobs will increase even more in the face of the positive short-term demand shocks brought by the Olympic Games. By 2008, the Olympic economy had provided 2,654,380+million jobs for China. The 265.438 million+employment opportunities are as follows: first, the employment brought about by the construction of projects needed for the Olympic Games and the permanent use after the Olympic Games requires specialized personnel to manage and operate; Second, by hosting the Olympic Games, Beijing's urban infrastructure and environment will be greatly improved, which will attract more new investment and tourism for the city and create a large number of employment opportunities; Third, by hosting the Olympic Games, Beijing citizens who participate in the Olympic Games need corresponding education and training, so as to improve human capital, enhance competitiveness and increase employment opportunities.
Beijing Olympic Games will increase China's economy by 0.3%-0.5% and Beijing's economy by 2%.
According to the financial budget of Beijing's 2008 Olympic bid report, BOCOG's budgeted expenditure is $65.438+609 billion, its budgeted income is $65.438+625 billion, and its profit is $65.438+600 million. In the budget of non-BOCOG, non-BOCOG will spend 654.38+0.23.85 on environmental protection, road and railway transportation and airport construction without the Olympic Games. However, the non-OCOG expenditures generated by the Olympic Games include stadiums and the Olympic Village, totaling $65,438 +0.87438+0 billion; The budget expenditure of non-Organizing Committee (city, region or national government and private investment) totals $6,543.8+$04.256 billion. In this way, the total expenditure related to the Olympic Games is 65.438+05.865 billion US dollars, which is about 65.438+0365.438+02 billion RMB.
Economic impact (investment, consumption, export, government debt, etc.). ) can create more labor demand and output, thus promoting the increase of domestic employment and national income in quantity (rather than in long-term growth rate).
(B) the negative impact
1, the Olympic host city will attract foreign investment, which may increase the imbalance of regional economic development.
The government has just put forward the development of the western region, and in the past two years, investment has begun to tilt to the west. Now that Beijing is hosting the Olympic Games, a one-time investment of 280 billion yuan means another great development of the eastern region. So how to reflect the tilt to the western region? If the east and the west tilt at the same time, does the government have that much financial resources? In addition, for Shanghai, a city that competes directly with Beijing, will the urban development of Beijing affect Shanghai's attraction to international capital in the future?
2. After the closing of the Olympic Games, there will be some venues and facilities built for the Olympic Games, and the utilization rate will be reduced.
3. After a large number of Olympic venues are added, the same is true from foreign experience, which will lead to inflation.
According to the analysis and calculation of China's endogenous economic growth model, the annual contribution of Beijing Olympic Games to China's GDP growth is 0.3%-0.5%. Due to the lack of empirical test of endogenous economic growth model of large-scale sports events in China, it is still impossible to determine the time limit for Beijing Olympic Games to promote economic growth.
After further analysis and prediction, it is concluded that the contribution rate of Beijing Olympic Games to Beijing's economic growth is 2%, because the Olympic Games will undoubtedly improve Beijing's long-term economic growth capacity because of the improvement of basic resources or production process or the more intensive use of resources. To what extent is this improvement or increase? As far as the timeliness of this improvement or increase is concerned, the growth period can reach about 20 15.
It should be pointed out that although the Olympic economy can bring the rapid growth of service industry demand in a certain period, it is not long-term. Therefore, for the government, it is necessary to prevent in advance, strictly control, and adopt various methods to prevent the blindness of enterprises' entry and avoid the disorderly entry of enterprises with poor competitiveness; For enterprises, it is necessary to position their development strategies and goals through risk assessment, start with improving their own capabilities, develop under a fair and reasonable market economic order, and strengthen self-discipline at the same time to avoid behaviors that are not conducive to the development of the industry, such as blind expansion of scale and vicious competition.