Since the beginning of this year, the world economy has maintained a moderate recovery momentum and has generally emerged from the shadow of the international financial crisis. The world economy is expected to achieve positive growth in 20 10, but there are still unstable and uncertain factors in the world economy: First, the recovery of the world economy is very uneven. China, Brazil, Indian, Russian and other emerging economies are growing strongly; The U.S. economy maintained its recovery momentum, and consumer demand increased substantially, which became the main engine to stimulate the economy; Japan's economic recovery momentum is good, and the demand of emerging markets such as China has driven the rapid growth of Japanese exports; The eurozone was dragged down by the sovereign debt crisis and its economic recovery was weak. Second, the foundation of world economic recovery is still fragile. Developed countries generally face the risk of high fiscal deficit. The debt risk of developed countries has become an important factor affecting the sustainable growth of the world economy. Major international stock markets and commodity prices fluctuated and adjusted, and various trade protectionism rose obviously. The recovery momentum of the world economy is still unstable, and the structural problems that caused the crisis have not been fundamentally solved. Third, the reform of the international financial system is in the ascendant. With the gradual easing of the international financial crisis, the willingness of some developed countries to promote the reform of the international financial system has weakened, but the reform of the international financial system is the general trend: substantial progress has been made in the reform of the World Bank, the voting rights of developing countries and countries in transition have increased as a whole, and the representation of developing countries has exceeded 47%. The position of G20 as the core mechanism of global economic governance has been further consolidated. Fourth, countries have stepped up efforts to adjust and change the mode of economic growth. The traditional industrialization road with high consumption and high pollution is increasingly unsustainable, and low-carbon economy and green economy have become important development directions. Western developed countries strive to achieve "re-industrialization" at a higher starting point, and emerging economies strive to enhance their development potential. Global industrial transfer and international division of labor are deepening. All countries regard scientific and technological innovation as the main means to promote industrial upgrading and seize the commanding heights of future development.

Second, relations between major powers continue to be adjusted, and changes in power contrast promote changes in the international system.

With the deep-seated impact of the international financial crisis further emerging, the strength and international influence of big countries have undergone new changes, and their relationship has become more complicated. First, the balance of international power has further changed. The United States continues to be dragged down by a financial crisis and two wars against terrorism, while Europe is deeply affected by the sovereign debt crisis. The reputation of financial institutions and rating agencies in the west, especially in the United States, has been discredited, and the aura of development model has faded. Traditional developed countries generally face internal and external troubles, their self-confidence and superiority are frustrated, and their strength and influence are relatively declining. In sharp contrast, the strong development momentum of emerging powers has not only become the main engine of world economic recovery, but also become the object of help for the West to get rid of the crisis and solve international problems. Brazil and Turkey actively mediate the Iranian nuclear issue and participate more actively in international affairs. Coordination and cooperation among BRIC countries have been further strengthened. However, the basic pattern of international power being strong in the north and weak in the south will be difficult to change for a long time. Second, the United States and other big countries have stepped up their efforts to adjust their foreign strategies. The new national security strategy of the United States emphasizes revitalizing the American economy and other power bases, implementing "multi-partner" diplomacy, consolidating relations with allies, strengthening cooperation with "centers of influence" such as China, Russian Federation and Indian, and relying more on international mechanisms and multilateral cooperation. Other major countries have also adjusted their foreign strategies to cope with the changes in US policy. Third, the interaction between big countries is more active. Sino-US relations have experienced twists and turns and come out of the trough; Russia and the United States have strengthened cooperation on a series of international issues; Japan's new cabinet reiterated that relations with the United States are the cornerstone of diplomacy; The contradiction between the United States and Europe on European sovereign debt crisis and other issues is prominent; Emerging powers strengthen unity; The traditional boundaries between friends and enemies among big countries are becoming increasingly blurred, and different combinations are formed around different issues.

Third, regional hot spots are one after another, and the international security situation presents a new trend.

The international and regional security situation has generally maintained a easing trend, but traditional and non-traditional security threats continue to interweave and develop. First, hot issues come one after another. The Cheonan incident triggered a new military tension on the Korean Peninsula, and the six-party talks on the Korean nuclear issue were blocked. The political situation in Kyrgyzstan and Thailand is turbulent, unstable factors in Myanmar, Nepal and other countries are increasing, and the anti-terrorism situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan is grim. Israel's attack on the Turkish convoy transporting humanitarian relief supplies to Gaza has intensified the contradiction between Israel and Palestine, and the Middle East peace process is struggling. Secondly, nuclear disarmament, nuclear safety and non-proliferation have made progress on the international agenda. The United States and Russia signed a new treaty to reduce and limit offensive strategic weapons. The first Nuclear Security Summit was held in Washington. The eighth Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons was held. The consensus of all parties on cooperation in dealing with nuclear safety issues has increased, and their expectations for promoting the international nuclear disarmament process have risen. Third, the traditional arms race has become more intense. On the one hand, the United States advocates the establishment of a "nuclear-weapon-free world" to weaken its strategic opponents and reduce its own risks; On the other hand, we will vigorously develop new weapons such as the "rapid global strike" system and safeguard the absolute leading position of the conventional military forces of the United States. The United States has vigorously improved the intelligence level of various combat platforms and formally established the Cyber Command. Other military powers have also vigorously promoted military reform. International military competition has expanded from traditional land, sea and air to "strategic frontiers" such as land, sea and air Skynet. The competition of high-tech weapons and equipment in the world has intensified. Fourth, various non-traditional security threats have increased. Transnational influences such as Iceland volcano eruption, oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and forest fire in Russia have attracted people's attention. Issues such as food security and water resources disputes are prominent. The threats to international security are increasingly diversified, and various security issues are intertwined, and their comprehensiveness, suddenness and proliferation are enhanced.

4. China's all-round diplomacy is active on the world stage, and its international status and influence have steadily improved.

20 10 is the beginning of the second decade of 2 1 century. The international community further turned its attention to China, and generally regarded the rise of China as the most important global event in this century. China has successfully resisted the impact of the international financial crisis, and its weight in the world economy has further increased, which continues to be one of the most important factors affecting the development of the international situation. The attention of all parties to China has further increased, and at the same time, the sense of inadaptability to the rapid development of China has been further enhanced, and new arguments such as "China's hardline theory" and "China's arrogance theory" have emerged constantly. Facing the complicated and changeable international situation, China has actively carried out all-round diplomacy and maintained a generally good external environment. First, continue to do a good job in summit diplomacy and expand China's influence and voice. Second, "Expo diplomacy" and "Asian Games diplomacy" have become new important platforms for promoting mutual understanding and trust between China and foreign countries and displaying China's open, inclusive, enthusiastic and friendly image. The third is to stabilize and develop relations with major powers, and China's cooperation with other emerging powers continues to strengthen. The fourth is to deepen friendly cooperation with neighboring countries and developing countries. Fifth, actively participate in solving hot and global problems.