Miao Wenzhi Kujun
20 19, the turbulent China auto market continued to decline, the competition in the stock age has started, and the industry has been deeply adjusted.
In 2020, a sudden black swan flapped its wings, and an epidemic sweeping across the country touched the nerves of Chinese people. Wuhan, where cherry blossoms bloom in my memory, has cast a heavy shadow.
The fog of the continuous downward trend of the automobile market has not been blown away, and the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has brought an unpredictable impact to the automobile industry in China. What is the future trend? Where will the market go? Where should we go in the fog?
Before the Spring Festival, in the article "Tribute to 20 19 | China's Adult Ceremony", think tank Jun reviewed the extraordinary 20 19 that China's automobile industry experienced, hoping to help China automobile people better see the road under their feet through the dribs and drabs and profound changes that China's automobile industry experienced in the past year.
Recently, China Automotive Thirty-member Think Tank officially launched "Intelligence Review 2020? Column | The next golden decade of the automobile industry, invite experts from China Automobile 30-member think tank to analyze the future pattern and trend changes of China automobile. Following the invitation of Zhong Shi, a think tank expert and senior auto media person in the last issue ("Wisdom Review 2020? |? Zhong Shi: The demand for automobiles is still the same as before. In this issue, I will talk to Liu Xiaozhi, founder and CEO of think tank expert Yashilong Technology Co., Ltd.
Facing the "black swan" flying around in 2020, Liu Xiaozhi believes that cooperation will be the general trend of the global automobile industry in the future.
"The development of the automobile industry is difficult to do alone, only cooperation, even the alliance between elephants. This will give full play to its advantages in technology research and development, resource coordination, investment layout, market expansion, business model innovation and international operation. "
What impact does the epidemic have on the industry?
Think Tank Jun: In terms of sales, what impact will the epidemic have on the automobile market in China? How long will the impact last? Will it aggravate the downward trend of the automobile market?
Liu Xiaozhi: The epidemic will definitely have an impact on China's automobile industry, including automobile R&D, manufacturing, supply chain, sales and after-sales service. Especially in the supply chain, it will not only have an impact on China's automobile manufacturing, but also have a far-reaching impact on the world. But consumers' demand for cars will not disappear because of the outbreak of the epidemic. China has a strong market and consumption capacity, and it is believed that the China automobile market can survive this crisis.
Of course, the specific impact degree and time depends on when the epidemic can be controlled, and factors such as inventory/cash flow will affect whether the enterprise can survive this crisis. At present, the epidemic situation outside Wuhan has been initially controlled, which will have a serious impact on the automobile market in the first quarter of this year, especially in June, 438+ 10 and February. As the factory continues to resume work, it is expected that there will be a significant improvement in March, which will not have much impact on the whole year. After the Spring Festival, it was originally the off-season of automobile sales. The outbreak of the epidemic will stimulate the first purchase demand of some consumers, and it will only appear after the outbreak of the epidemic.
Think Tank Jun: On the production side, what impact will the epidemic have on car companies and parts suppliers in the industrial chain?
Liu Xiaozhi: Delaying the resumption of work and stopping production will affect production efficiency even at the initial stage of resumption of work. The epidemic situation is also a big test for the supply chain of car companies. Nissan's suspension of production due to the failure of parts supply in China is the best example. For new energy vehicles, whether the supply of key components including batteries, motors and electronic controls can keep up is the key. Enterprises with a particularly high degree of industry integration, such as BYD, will have less pressure and greater autonomy.
Think Tank Jun: As far as market segments are concerned, which brands, price ranges and models will be more affected by the epidemic?
Liu Xiaozhi: From the automobile market of 19, Japanese brands, such as Honda, Toyota and luxury brands, such as BMW-Benz, are in a state of full production line and short supply. The delay in returning to work caused by this epidemic will have a great impact on them. In addition, this epidemic will stimulate the demand for some high-end models with air purification function, which may be the part that consumers are more concerned about in the future.
Where will China Auto Market Go in 2020?
Think Tank Jun: Generally speaking, do you think China auto market will continue to decline or pick up in 2020?
Liu Xiaozhi: From the current point of view, it will be a high probability event that the epidemic in the first quarter of 2020 will cause the automobile market to be frustrated. However, in order to cope with the epidemic, it is expected that all localities will introduce relevant policies to stimulate the automobile market, so I think the impact will not be too great from the perspective of the whole year, and it is more likely to drop slightly throughout the year.
Think Tank Jun: Will China's new energy vehicle market pick up in 2020? How much will the market space grow?
Liu Xiaozhi: With the localization of Tesla, joint ventures have continuously introduced competitive new energy products, and the price is close to that of fuel vehicles. The cruising range of some models has exceeded 600 kilometers. With the expansion of charging facilities, it is unlikely that subsidies will be withdrawn in 2020. I am optimistic about the new energy market this year.
Think Tank Jun: How do you view the competition between China brands and foreign brands during the market adjustment period? What do independent brands in China need to do to resist pressure?
Liu Xiaozhi: As far as the supply chain is concerned, the industrial chain of China brands is mainly concentrated in China, which is more affected by the epidemic. Foreign brands will have stronger capabilities in products, brands and capital.
At present, the most important thing for independent brands is how to survive the epidemic smoothly, pay attention to protecting employees' health, and strive to prevent upstream and downstream risks, provide necessary support for distributors and supplier partners in all aspects, and ensure the stability of the team, supply chain and distributor system.
Think Tank Jun: In 2020, it will be the last year of subsidies for new energy vehicles. What impact do you think it will have on the development of new energy vehicles in China?
Liu Xiaozhi: From the current point of view, it is unlikely that new energy vehicles will decline this year, but there will always be no subsidies. Only market-oriented competition can make new energy vehicle companies stronger, and subsidies will definitely affect some sales. However, with the continuous improvement of the product strength of new energy vehicles, the continuous decline of costs and the continuous improvement of the layout of charging facilities, this part of the impact will become less and less.
Think Tank Jun: What impact will the promotion of the double-point policy have on car companies?
Liu Xiaozhi: There is no doubt that the double-point policy will bring certain challenges to enterprises with high dependence on fuel vehicles. Although the policy allows the combination of two points, it is not easy for car companies to reduce consumption and develop new energy vehicles. In the long run, new energy vehicles are the only way out for car companies.
Think Tank Jun: The draft of New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035) has been released. How to treat the phased goal of 25% sales of new energy vehicles and 30% sales of new intelligent networked vehicles in 2025?
Liu Xiaozhi: By 2025, the market competitiveness of new energy vehicles will be significantly improved, and major breakthroughs will be made in key technologies such as power batteries, drive motors and on-board operating systems. Highly autonomous intelligent networked vehicles will be commercialized in limited areas and specific scenarios, so this goal is not out of reach.
Think Tank Jun: Will the technological development direction of new energy vehicles change? What are the prospects of plug-in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles?
Liu Xiaozhi: Pure electric power is still the most important direction. With the release of plug-in cars by major foreign brands, the proportion of plug-in cars will reach its peak within five years; The positioning of fuel cells has reached a basic international consensus. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are 65,438+00 years behind pure electric vehicles. At present, there are still some major bottlenecks, such as hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and hydrogen transportation. The construction of hydrogen refueling station has just started, and it will take at least 10 years to achieve the goal of industrialization.
Open cooperation, where will China enterprises go?
Think Tank Jun: With the further expansion of China's opening to the outside world, it is urgent to adjust the share ratio of joint ventures. How to treat the stock ratio game between China and foreign countries? What does China need to do?
Liu Xiaozhi: In the long run, it is the inevitable result of market development to cancel the requirement of joint venture share ratio. Whether it is an international brand or an independent brand in China, the China market or the customers who buy cars have the final say. This is good for China automobile industry, and it is necessary to get rid of the pain of infancy. Independent brand companies need to increase investment to establish development and technical teams.
Think Tank Jun: How to evaluate the impact that Tesla's independent factory in China will bring to China's new energy automobile industry and even China's automobile industry?
Liu Xiaozhi: Tesla will have a great impact on all models in its product price range. Not only will new energy car companies encounter pressure, such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Tesla, but they are not perfect. For example, its product design is based on the preferences of consumers in North China, which may not be suitable for in consumers, and its after-sales service system has no advantage over some independent brands. ?
Think Tank Jun: What impact will Tesla bring to China's new car-making forces? Can the new forces that haven't built a car continue?
Liu Xiaozhi: With the delivery of domestic Tesla, some potential users of new energy vehicles will be separated. For the new forces, it is important not only to build high-performance, reliable, durable and safe cars, but also to avoid confrontation with Tesla and attract a large number of customers who support the brand of state-owned enterprises with high-quality services and innovative sales. After all, China's new energy market will gradually mature and expand, not just a new market.
In fact, solving the problem of funds and being able to continue to live is the top priority of the new forces that build cars. The cooperation between Weilai Automobile and Hefei Municipal Government has won tens of billions of investment, which has well explained the survival skills of enterprises to other enterprises. ?
Think Tank Jun: Will Tesla's domestic production have an impact on the fuel vehicle market? What does this mean for the whole automobile industry? ?
Liu Xiaozhi: The influence is beyond doubt. I said a few years ago that electrification came much faster than people thought. The development of some new electric vehicle companies in China and the localization of Tesla are accelerating the electrification of the entire automobile industry. ?
Think Tank Jun: Will China's advantage in the supply chain of new energy vehicles, which has been painstakingly managed for many years, eventually become "someone else's wedding dress"? Is it still possible for China's own brands to achieve "lane-changing overtaking" by relying on new energy vehicles?
Liu Xiaozhi: Independent brands must make use of the advantages of industrial chain to develop rapidly. With the landing of new energy products of major foreign brands, these advantages will become smaller and smaller, depending on who wins.
Think Tank Jun: What do you think of the alliance between SAIC and GAC? What is there to look forward to? What are the challenges?
Liu Xiaozhi: 20 19 I once said that the development of the automobile industry is difficult to go it alone, and we can only cooperate, even the alliance between elephants. This will give full play to their respective advantages in technology research and development, resource coordination, investment layout, market expansion, business model innovation and international operation.
Of course, how to effectively balance and coordinate the interests of both sides is the key to smooth cooperation.
Think Tank Jun: What do you think are the similarities and differences between the alliance between China car companies and the alliance between international giants such as Volkswagen Ford, FCA and PSA?
Liu Xiaozhi: As mentioned above, up to now, there is no solo, only an ensemble. These alliances are similar, they are all products of the development of the times, and some are forced by the situation. Cooperation can directly and effectively realize resource sharing and reduce investment risks. This is bound to be the general trend of the global automobile industry in the future. It's not too late for China car companies to start cooperation. Because of the cooperation between state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises, it may be relatively easier to reach a cooperation intention, which should be an advantage. Competition depends on the leadership after the alliance.
Think Tank Jun: The relationship between car companies and Internet companies is very complicated. At present, most car companies have reached cooperation with a number of Internet giants at the same time, and Internet giants are also trying to expand their circle of friends. How to treat this competitive and cooperative relationship?
Liu Xiaozhi: With the development of technology in the past 20 years, the automobile will eventually evolve from a completely mechanical product to a highly intelligent product. Internet giants are the promoters of technology and means in the early stage of this change for car companies, and there should be more cooperation.
Think Tank Jun: The cooperation boundary between Internet companies and car companies is becoming blurred. Do Internet companies want to build cars?
Liu Xiaozhi: I personally think that car companies and the Internet will become an inseparable community.
Think Tank Jun: Some people say that intelligent networked cars are opportunities for new forces to survive, not because they produce electric cars. what do you think?
Liu Xiaozhi: In the future, all vehicles will be inseparable from the intelligent network. Market and customers are the key to determine the life and death of each car-making force.
Attachment: Expert members of China Automotive Thirty-member Think Tank (in no particular order)
Fu Honorary Chairman of China Automotive Engineering Society
Wang Binggang, head of the national expert group on innovative engineering of new energy vehicles.
Anqing Heng, director of China Automobile Industry Advisory Committee and former chairman of BAIC Group.
Zuo Yanan, former chairman of JAC.
Chairman of Zhao Fuquan World Association of Automotive Engineers, President of Tsinghua University Institute of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy.
China automobile dealers association President Shen Jinjun
Researcher, Institute of Industrial Economics, China Academy of Social Sciences, Ying Zhao
Lin Lei, Partner and Managing Director of Rhoda Capital.
Meisonglin Weimar Automobile chief data officer
Vice President of Helen Netcom Automotive Research Institute
Zhong Shi is a senior auto media person.
Deputy General Manager and CSO of Smart Enterprise of Zhang Junyi Ping An Group
Liu Xiaozhi, founder and CEO of Yashilong Technology Co., Ltd.
Xu Xiangyang, Professor of Beihang University, Executive Deputy Director of National Passenger Car Automatic Transmission Engineering Technology Research Center.
Cai Wei, Chief Scientist of Automotive Electronic Drive Control and System Integration Engineering Research Center of Ministry of Education, Professor harbin university of science and technology, founder of Jin Jing Electric.
Wu Songquan, Senior Chief Expert of China Automotive Technology Research Center.
Shi, vice president of Tencent Car Federation, CEO of Nanjing Eagle Eye Electronic Technology Co., Ltd.
Gu Jianmin, Chief Technology Officer of Valeo Group China
Secretary-General of Cui Dongshu National Passenger Car Market Information Association
Zheng Yun, Global Senior Partner of roland berger Management Consulting Company.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.