The core of the development of upper internal circulation

In order to cope with the changes in the world political and economic situation since the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the central government has formulated a development strategy of "domestic internal circulation as the mainstay, supplemented by international external circulation", the main point of which is to promote and promote the development of domestic consumption, so as to maintain the sustained and healthy development of China's economy.

Therefore, to promote the development of domestic consumption, we should consider four aspects: enhancing consumption confidence, enhancing consumption ability, changing consumption environment and intelligently creating consumer products.

First, enhance consumer confidence.

Enhancing consumer confidence is actually to make China people dare to spend, and to weaken and eliminate the existing factors that weaken consumption. Judging from the current situation, the main factors that weaken consumer confidence are housing, education, medical care and old-age care.

High housing prices, increasing costs of education, medical care and old-age care, and insufficient quantity and quality of facilities make Chinese people afraid to spend boldly.

Therefore, stabilizing housing prices, reducing the costs of education, medical care and old-age care, increasing the number of related facilities and improving the quality are the only way to enhance the consumer confidence of Chinese people.

During the epidemic, the state strictly implemented the real estate policy of "only living and not speculating". Although some areas try to test the water repeatedly in various ways, hoping to relax the strict real estate control policy in a short time and stimulate economic development, the central government has found that it is necessary to strictly control housing prices together with punishment, which shows that the state is quite determined to enhance consumer confidence.

At the same time, with a large number of new infrastructure investment and continuous investment in online education, epidemic prevention and other related projects, it is believed that education, medical care and old-age care will be important investment directions in the future, and efforts will be made to reduce related costs, reduce people's concerns and further enhance consumer confidence.

Second, enhance consumption power.

The key to enhancing consumption power is to let China people get more social wealth distribution.

With the application of new technologies such as 5G technology, artificial intelligence, big data, Internet of Things and industrial automation, industrial products and commercialization of various new technologies have been continuously improved, which has continuously improved production efficiency and productivity and further increased the ability of society to create wealth.

Encourage and support the development of the capital market, promote the healthy development of the capital market and further promote and support the increase of national wealth.

We will promote the establishment and improvement of wage income security mechanism, individual tax collection mechanism and social insurance mechanism, steadily increase per capita disposable income and enhance residents' consumption power.

Third, change the consumption environment.

The consumption environment is mainly reflected in the political and business environment, business environment, legal environment and so on. By improving the government's management ability and legislative system construction, we will create a healthy production and development environment for enterprises, especially small and medium-sized private enterprises, and encourage their healthy development.

We must reform and clean up all policies, systems, laws and regulations that affect and hinder market development and restrain the release of consumption power, with only one purpose, that is, to encourage and support the development of enterprises and the consumption of China people.

Fourth, build consumer products intelligently.

Intelligent manufacturing of consumer goods refers to the development, design and manufacture of new products with high added value by using new technologies and new materials to meet the market consumption demand.

Encourage and support a number of enterprises with independent core intellectual property rights and competitive advantages, such as Huawei, Hikvision and DJI, to develop rapidly and healthily, and lead China products to continuously upgrade their technology. In addition to meeting domestic consumption demand, they should also focus on the world and explore the world market.

Therefore, the future development of China will be reflected in how to realize "enhancing consumer confidence, enhancing consumption capacity, changing consumption environment and making consumer products intelligent".

New thinking of non-performing assets investment under the background of low internal circulation development

The new thinking of non-performing assets investment is mainly based on the end of the domestic epidemic and the start of the internal circulation strategy. Many things that were rarely seen or impossible in the past have appeared in the non-performing assets industry, that is, various objective environments have changed, forcing us to deal with this new environment and generating a new cognitive model.

What objective situation changes?

1, after the epidemic, there will be many unexpected bad things.

These unexpected bad enterprises mainly adopt the strategy of light assets. According to the previous cognition, it is difficult to identify the value of these non-performing assets that lack sufficient mortgage and guarantee assets as the underlying assets. Even if the value is determined, the value will be very low. In fact, these enterprises with good business model and good cash flow, just because of the impact of the epidemic, the capital chain is broken, and they must not judge and identify the value according to the previous model.

2. The increase of competitors leads to increasingly fierce competition in the field of traditional non-performing assets.

With the conclusion of the Sino-US trade agreement, the non-performing assets industry is fully open to foreign investment, and foreign capital has entered the non-performing assets industry one after another. Foreign predators with sufficient capital and experience in non-performing assets have entered the non-performing assets market in China. At the same time, state-owned capital and large-scale private capital have set foot in this industry, increasing the competition of traditional non-performing assets industries. Therefore, we need to use new thinking to find the regional blue ocean market of non-performing assets industry.

Therefore, we believe that there are four major changes in the non-performing assets investment in the post-epidemic era: changes in the value of basic assets to be invested by non-performing assets, changes in the logic of non-performing assets investment, changes in the investment cycle, cost and profit of non-performing assets, and changes in the content of non-performing assets investment process.

The essence of this change is the change of thinking of non-performing assets investment, and thinking is the attribute, ability and process of logical deduction of human thinking. The new thinking of non-performing assets investment is a process in which the non-performing assets industry adopts new value cognitive logic and realizes it.

First, a new cognitive thinking on the value of non-performing assets

1, the cognition of asset value carrier is different.

In the past, the value carrier of non-performing assets was mainly the underlying assets of non-performing assets, that is, the assets that provided guarantees for the performance of non-performing claims, or the assets that obtained the right to dispose of through seizure and preservation, such as mortgaged and sealed real estate and land. In the traditional cognitive thinking of the value of non-performing assets, we will evaluate the ownership and market value (or replacement value) of these mortgaged and sealed houses and land in detail, so as to judge the value geometry of non-performing assets. Therefore, in traditional thinking, the underlying assets of non-performing assets are regarded as the value carrier of non-performing assets.

The new thinking tells us that the cognition of the value of non-performing assets should not be limited to the underlying assets, but should focus on the solvency of the main body of non-performing assets.

According to the existing laws, the subject of debt can be divided into three categories: debtor, guarantor and related subjects of debtor or guarantor.

Debtor, generally refers to the borrower with bad debts; Guarantor refers to the guarantor who provides mortgage, pledge and guarantee; The related subjects of the debtor or guarantor refer to those who are legally related to the debtor and guarantor and should bear relevant legal responsibilities for this, such as the debtor, the heir of the guarantor's estate, the debtor's company, the company shareholders of the guarantor, etc.

Solvency refers to the ability to obtain legal income and pay corresponding debts through its own assets or business activities.

Therefore, the new thinking tells us that the cognition of the value of non-performing assets should be the solvency of the main body of non-performing assets.

2. Different perceptions of asset value at different time points.

Traditional thinking mainly takes a certain time node or benchmark date in the collection stage as the time point of asset value. This recognition corrects the value of assets in time. For non-performing assets, time is often a factor that brings great changes to their asset values. In practice, there are two opposite theories-"Popsicle Theory" and "Cultural Relics Theory".

The popsicle theory tells us that the value of non-performing assets will decrease or even disappear with the passage of time, but the cultural relic theory tells us that the value of non-performing assets will increase or even double with the passage of time.

There is nothing wrong with both theories, but different types of assets and different disposal methods of assets will lead to such diametrically opposite conclusions. Therefore, it is a huge mistake to judge the value of non-performing assets with a fixed value identification standard.

The new thinking tells us that the real value of non-performing assets is not in the present, but in the future, at some time in the future. Therefore, the so-called losses and omissions that often occur in the non-performing assets industry are actually the illusion caused by the wrong valuation of the value of non-performing assets.

Only by judging the value of non-performing assets from the perspective of dynamic value can we really make a correct judgment. Accurately speaking, it is based on the solvency of the main body of non-performing assets in the specific exercise as the evaluation basis for determining the value of non-performing assets.

The dynamic value of non-performing assets can better identify the true value of non-performing assets and avoid so-called losses and omissions.

Second, to achieve new ideas of non-performing assets investment

1. Change the idea of collection and disposal into the idea of management and disposal.

The new thinking of non-performing assets investment needs to be realized through disposal, adopting the original collection and disposal methods, that is, through collection, debtor repurchase, litigation and arbitration execution, auction, sale of assets, debt repayment of assets, bankruptcy liquidation and so on. In fact, according to the "firewood splitting theory", high-value enterprise assets are split up piece by piece and resold at low prices. This kind of disposal is not so much disposal as destruction of asset value.

Therefore, the way to realize the new thinking of investment is obviously not this kind of destruction, but through the operation and disposal of continuously improving the value of debt subjects and their assets.

The existing management disposal is to manage and improve the debtor through asset restructuring, debt restructuring, debt-to-equity swap, property rights restructuring and bankruptcy reorganization. , so as to enhance the market value of the debtor, and at an appropriate time through repurchase and stock withdrawal to complete the realization of non-performing assets investment.

The survival of the debt subject and the continuous improvement of its asset value are the core ideas of the management and disposal methods. In the existing model, it is mainly realized through asset restructuring, debt restructuring, debt-to-equity swap, property rights restructuring and bankruptcy restructuring, which is also the basis for the transformation from "three strikes out" to "three strikes out" that people in the industry have been talking about in recent years.

2, from one-time disposal to multiple disposal.

The traditional disposal of non-performing assets is to realize the return on investment through one-off disposal methods such as collection and disposal, so that the way of fast-forward and fast-out can achieve certain benefits in a short period of time.

One-time disposal and multiple disposal each have the following advantages and disadvantages.

(1) Selection of disposal opportunity.

One-time disposal does not determine whether the disposal opportunity is the best, but multiple disposal can reasonably distinguish the disposal opportunity, reduce the risk of wrong choice of disposal opportunity, and increase the possibility of additional income from asset appreciation.

(2) the impact on the debt subject

One-time disposal mode, regardless of whether the debtor can effectively bear and the possibility of confrontation. If the debtor can't afford it, the debtor can choose various countermeasures to extend the disposal period, which may also lead to the break of the debtor's capital chain, or even bankruptcy, and eventually lead to the unfavorable result of being unable to dispose of it or disposing of it at a low price.

Diversified disposal will fully consider the debtor's affordability, and choose diversified disposal and gradually withdraw under the condition of ensuring the recovery of investment cost and basic income, so as to maximize the value of investment return and reduce the debtor's confrontation and capital chain burden.