First, the Fed's interest rate hike may end, and the exchange rate and capital flows will begin to turn. Once the Fed enters the interest rate cut cycle (or temporarily stabilizes), it means that our house prices may usher in a new round of market.
Secondly, the financing of housing enterprises will be extended to the end of 2024, and housing enterprises such as "One of the Five Tigers in South China" and "Forever Big" will be cleared up, which means that the previous problems may be handled well in the next year and a half, when the property market will enter a new cycle.
Finally, after the "small new three years", the domestic economy and industry need time to recover, and it can be solved in as short as three years; At the same time, the leverage reduction in the real estate sector has achieved remarkable results, and the property market cycle needs to stage a new script together with the economic cycle.
Constitute a new inflection point of housing prices:
They are "the inflection point of housing price and rent", "the inflection point of population and urbanization rate", "the inflection point of upside-down housing price" and "the inflection point of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve".
The first is the "inflection point of house price inversion":
In the past, the property market game in big cities was "innovation", but now the property market game in big cities is "luxury". The former is the phenomenon of price inversion, while the latter is the phenomenon of property market differentiation and circle differentiation.
Before, the prices of second-hand houses and new houses were upside down, and there was an expected phenomenon of buying and earning. Now it is the selling pressure of second-hand housing stock, which has caused the expected instability of new housing prices in the region.
Previously, our definition of house price was based on "location". Now, even the real estate in the same lot will have multiple differences because of the differences in quality, property, brand, circle and design. This also shows that a good new house may not have a ceiling in the future.
Followed by the "demographic turning point":
Although there are problems such as declining birth rate, aging and low marriage rate, don't forget that young people still occupy a huge population base.
Roughly speaking, college graduates will continue to maintain "ten million levels" in the next five years; At the same time, after the post-85 s and post-90 s, housing will be purchased or improved for the first time in big cities, which brings about the release of housing demand. The concept of school district housing may gradually weaken.
In addition, the current urbanization rate of about 65% is expected to have a growth cycle of about 15 years, during which the phenomenon of tearing and differentiation will continue; For example, the decline of small cities and the siphon of big cities.
Then there is the "inflection point of house price and rent":
At present, the rent-to-sale ratio in many cities is unreasonable, so it is more likely that rents will rise in the future. At the same time, big cities will also launch a balanced market of shared delivery rooms and public rental houses.
For the problem of low liquidity of some properties that everyone cares about, REITS may be adopted to enter the financial market through securitization, thus reflecting liquidity.
It is worth noting that the future housing price lies in the competition of stock, which is related to the competition of a city's population and talents, as well as the new industrial track and the planning and development expectation of the new urban area.
Finally, there is the "inflection point of the Fed's interest rate hike":
Its essence is actually our mortgage interest rate problem. According to the current interest rate trend, the future mortgage interest rate will appear prefix 3 or even prefix 2; It means that the cost of capital is greatly reduced, the expectation of depreciation is avoided, and the idea of buying a house to fight inflation erupts.
The key factor that determines whether our current mortgage interest rate can continue to decrease is when the Fed's interest rate hike cycle ends. Now their interest rate is above 5%, and capital is jumping into the sea, which naturally brings depreciation pressure to our exchange rate. Once the Fed enters the interest rate cut cycle, our interest rate cut space will be completely released.