(1. Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences, Ministry of Education, chongqing technology and business university Economic Research Center of Upper Yangtze River, Chongqing, 400067 2. Agricultural College of Guangxi University, Nanning, 5300053. Chongqing technology and business university Tourism College, 400067 4. China Institute of Environmental Management, Qinhuangdao, 066004).
Based on the data of Chongqing 1996 ~ 2005, this paper discusses the coupling relationship between land use and economic development from the perspective of changes in cultivated land and construction land and their relationship with economic development. The analysis shows that the GDP and primary GDP in Chongqing are negatively correlated with the change of cultivated land area, while the regional GDP, non-agricultural added value and construction land area are positively correlated. The correlation between fixed assets investment and construction land area in Chongqing is extremely significant. At the same time, the coupling relationship between land use and economic development is only one of the representations of regional economic growth mode in a certain period in history, and it is also a measure of land use intensification and economy.
Keywords: economic development; Land use; Coupling relationship; Chongqing
Land use change is the most active and common phenomenon in today's economy and society, and it is the core field and hot issue of global change research [1]. The dynamic change of land use is essentially a process of continuously allocating various land uses to meet the needs of social and economic development, which reflects the development trend of human beings using land for production and life activities [2 ~ 5]. The change of land use reflects the main process of human-land interaction, and the development of regional economy should be supported by the rational use of land resources. The difference of land use type and structure affects and restricts the development pattern of regional economy [6]. The relative scarcity, immovability and nonrenewability of land determine its important position in social development. Land resource is the "smallest component" among the three elements of land, labor and capital, but it is the "biggest limiting factor" of national economic development, and there is a dialectical relationship of "barrel effect" [8]. Therefore, the rational use of land should be the primary consideration of economic development.
Since Chongqing was directly under the central government, the economy has developed continuously and rapidly. In the period of rapid economic development, it is inevitable to occupy land, especially cultivated land. In order to protect the living environment and ensure the sustainable development of regional economy, it is necessary to find the best combination of land protection and economic development. Practice shows that economic development is a long-term structural evolution process, which is not only reflected in the continuous growth of social output (GDP) and the continuous improvement of per capita income, but also in the continuous changes in the input direction and utilization structure of natural materials [9 ~ 10]. This paper analyzes the correlation between the change of cultivated land and construction land area and economic development in Chongqing, and probes into the coupling relationship between land use and economic development in Chongqing, with a view to providing reference for land managers and decision makers in the process of developing economy and protecting land.
1 land use and economic development in Chongqing
1. 1 Chongqing's economic structure changes
In recent years, Chongqing's economic growth has shown a good development trend of high growth and low inflation. The city's economy continues to develop rapidly, the consumer market is booming, people's living standards are steadily improving, and the contribution of consumption to the stability of economic growth is gradually enhanced. According to statistics, in 2005, Chongqing's annual GDP exceeded 300 billion yuan, reaching 306.9438+0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.438+065.438+0.5%. Among them, the primary industry was 46.342 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5%; The secondary industry12,583.2 billion yuan, an increase of12.9%; The tertiary industry was 65.438+034.736 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+02.3%. The industrial structure has been adjusted and optimized for three consecutive times, from 24.2∶ 4 1.8∶ 34.0 before direct administration to15.1∶ 41.0 ∶ 43.9 [1/kloc-in 2005].
Figure 1 Changes of Economic Structure of Three Industries in Chongqing
As can be seen from the figure 1, the general trend of the three industrial structure changes in Chongqing from 1996 to 2005 is: the proportion of the primary industry in the gross national product has steadily declined, and the decline rate has slowed down in recent years; The proportion of the secondary industry has generally increased steadily; The proportion of tertiary industry is generally on the rise. From 2002 to 2005, the growth of Chongqing's three industries was unstable, which also reflected to some extent that some deep-seated contradictions and problems were increasingly prominent in economic operation. For example, Chongqing's industry fluctuates greatly, the investment growth rate drops, and the economic growth rate slows down accordingly.
1.2 Present situation of land use and its structural changes in Chongqing
1.2. 1 land use status
The total land area of Chongqing is 822.69× 104 hm2. By the end of 2005, the total area of agricultural land in Chongqing was 694.54× 104 hm2, accounting for 84.42% of the total land area, mainly cultivated land, forest land and other agricultural land, accounting for 27.50%, 39.79% and 65,438 respectively. The construction land is 56.9 1× 104 hm2, accounting for 6.92% of the city's total land area, mainly residential and industrial land, accounting for 82.90% of the city's total construction land; The unused land is 7 1.28× 104 hm2, accounting for 8.66% of the city's total land area, mainly unused land [13] (table 1).
Table 1 land use in Chongqing in 2005 Unit: × 104 hm2
1.2.2 land use change
Land use change is expressed by the range of land area of different land types relative to 1996, that is, land use change = [(pit-pi0)/pi0] ×100%; Among them, Pit is the area (hm2) of the I-th land type in a certain year, and Pi0 is the area (hm2) 1996 of the I-th land type.
Figure 2 Land use change in Chongqing in 2005
As can be seen from Figure 2, from 1996 to 2005, the change of land use in Chongqing was mainly reflected in the change of construction land, cultivated land and unused land, which showed that the area of construction land increased year by year, while the area of cultivated land and unused land decreased year by year, and the construction land increased from 48.0364× 104 hm2 before the municipality directly under the central government to 56.938+0×2005 hm2. Agricultural land is mainly reflected in the adjustment of internal structure, showing a slight net increase but no obvious change.
1.3 changes in the internal structure of construction land in Chongqing
From 1996 to 2005, the net increase of construction land in Chongqing was 8.87× 104 hm2, and the increase of residential area, independent industrial and mining land and water conservancy facilities land was slightly larger than that of traffic land (Figure 3).
Fig. 3 1996-2005 structural changes of construction land in Chongqing.
As can be seen from Figure 3, during the period of 1996-2005, Chongqing's economic development required a lot of land, and the residential area and industrial and mining land increased by 44239hm2, with an increase rate of 10.35%. Traffic land increased by 17555hm2, with an increase of 55.93%; The land for water conservancy facilities increased by 27043hm2, an increase of 95.74%. The construction land in Chongqing increased at a relatively balanced rate, with a large increase in 2003 and 2004, mainly due to the acceleration of urbanization in Chongqing, the inundation of the Three Gorges reservoir area and the impact of resettlement land. The main source of construction land increase in Chongqing is agricultural land, followed by unused land. In 2005, the growth rate of residential areas, industrial and mining land and water conservancy facilities decreased.
2 Correlation analysis of land use change and economic development in Chongqing
2. 1 Chongqing cultivated land and economic development
The contribution of cultivated land change to economic development is mainly reflected in GDP and output value of various industries. From 1996 to 2005, the change of cultivated land area in Chongqing was positively correlated with regional GDP and output value of primary industry (Figure 4).
Fig. 4 1996-2005 correlation analysis between cultivated land area change and GDP and output value of primary industry in Chongqing.
Figure 4 shows that with the development of social economy, the cultivated land area in Chongqing is decreasing. From 1996 to 2005, the cultivated land area in Chongqing decreased by 30× 104 hm2, and the decrease of cultivated land was mainly concentrated in 200 1 ~ 2004. In 2003-2004, due to the implementation of the western development strategy and the construction of the Three Gorges immigrants, a large area of cultivated land was reduced, especially the inundation of the Three Gorges reservoir area and the relocation of immigrants occupied a large amount of cultivated land [10]. At the same time, the agricultural output value of Chongqing decreased slightly in the early stage, and continued to increase after 2000, especially during 2003-2004, the agricultural output value increased by 6.284 billion yuan, an increase of 365.438+0.34% compared with 65.438+0.996. Although the cultivated land area is decreasing, the agricultural output value is increasing, which also reflects that the utilization rate of cultivated land in Chongqing has improved in recent years due to the internal adjustment of agricultural structure.
The large loss of cultivated land is a common problem in areas with rapid economic development, which shows that economic development is one of the most important driving forces for the change of cultivated land quantity [14]. From 1996 to 2005, there was a significant negative correlation between Chongqing's GDP and the change of cultivated land area, the correlation coefficient was -0.9745 (0.9745 > R9, 0.0 1 = 0.735), and the change model was y =-52.69x+14825. On the other hand, this coupling relationship also shows that the reduction of cultivated land area is caused by the economic drive under the existing development model. From 1996 to 2005, Chongqing's GDP and output value were negatively correlated with the change of cultivated land area, with the correlation coefficient of -0.9356 (0.9356 > R9, 0.0 1 = 0.735) and the change model of y =-5.2055x+/kloc-0.
2.2 Chongqing's economic development and construction land changes
The increase of construction land is often an important symbol of rapid regional economic growth and accelerated urbanization. With the overall and rapid growth of urbanization, urban expansion and land for infrastructure construction will become the driving force for the change of regional land use types [15]. Economic development will inevitably lead to the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, and industrial development and urban expansion need more land to support. Chongqing's economy is in a period of rapid development, and the demand for construction land is also great.
Fig. 5 1996-2005 correlation analysis between the change of construction land area and GDP and non-agricultural added value in Chongqing.
As can be seen from Figure 5, the change trend of GDP and non-agricultural added value in Chongqing is highly positively correlated with the change trend of construction land area. With the development of social and economic construction, the scale of construction land has expanded rapidly. The correlation coefficient between regional GDP and construction land area reached 0.988 1, reaching a very significant level (0.988 1 > R9, 0.0 1 = 0.735), and its relationship model was y = 21kloc-0/./kloc. It shows that there is a strong coupling relationship between economic development and construction land. The construction land area increased by 1× 104 hm2, and the regional GDP increased by 211.10/billion yuan, which is equivalent to the regional GDP of Yuzhong District in one year. On the other hand, for every 6,543.8+billion yuan increase in regional GDP, the construction land area needs to reach 50hm2. The correlation coefficient between non-agricultural added value and construction land area is 0.9886, reaching a very significant level (0.9886 >r9, 0.0 1 = 0.735), and its relationship model is y = 179.3x-7777.8 (y is non-agricultural added value, and x is construction land area), which shows the development of non-agricultural industries and. The increase of construction land area is the main driving factor of Chongqing's economic development; The level of economic development and urbanization has led to the expansion of construction land.
2.3 the relationship between investment in fixed assets and construction land
The sustained growth of fixed assets investment in Chongqing is one of the main factors to promote the rapid and stable economic growth in Chongqing. After being directly under the central government, the investment in fixed assets in Chongqing increased by 22.76% annually, reaching 200.632 billion yuan in 2005, an increase of 39.639 billion yuan or 24.6% over 2004. The driving force of social fixed investment is increasing year by year, which is reflected in the increase of construction land in land use (Figure 6).
Correlation between fixed assets investment and construction land area in Chongqing.
The growth of fixed assets investment has promoted the increase of construction land area. Figure 6 shows the relationship between fixed assets investment and construction land area in Chongqing. The correlation coefficient between them is 0.9864, reaching a very significant level (0.9864 >r9, 0.0 1 = 0.735), and the relationship model is y = 0.005 1 x+47.286 (. X is investment in fixed assets). According to the relational model, for every increase of 1 100 million yuan in fixed resources investment, the construction land needs to be increased by 5 1 hm2. According to this demand model, the annual investment in fixed assets in Chongqing reaches 200 billion yuan, which requires construction land10×1.04hm2. On the other hand, the increase of construction land is bound to be the implementation of construction projects, which will inevitably bring greater investment. At the same time, it also shows that land use must meet the requirements of economical and intensive use in order to ensure the sustained and stable development of regional economy. Simply relying on expanding the scale of construction land to promote economic development will inevitably bring about the unsustainability of regional development. The growth of fixed assets investment depends on the implementation of project construction conditions in Chongqing, and the guarantee of project construction land demand has promoted the growth of investment; At the same time, the change of construction land scale is also affected by the scale of fixed assets investment and the difference of regional economic development speed and level.
2.4 Land use change and economic structure evolution
Economic development will inevitably lead to changes in land use structure. Using the method of inter-departmental correlation analysis, the relationship between the evolution of economic structure and the change of land use structure in Chongqing 1996 ~ 2005 was verified. The economic structure evolution on the abscissa takes the proportion of the primary industry as 1, calculates the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, and then adds up the three industries to form the economic structure. On the vertical axis, the change of land use structure is based on the scale of agricultural production land of 1, and it is integrated as a whole after the calculation of secondary and tertiary industries [9].
The results show that the relationship model between the evolution of economic structure and the change of land use structure in Chongqing is y = 0.0041x+10.0516 (y is the change of land use structure and x is the evolution of economic structure), and the correlation coefficient is 0.8953, reaching a very significant level (0.8953 > R9). If two abrupt data in 2004 and 2005 are excluded, the correlation coefficient between economic structure evolution and land use change is as high as 0.9757 during the period of 1996 ~ 2003, which shows that the land use structure and economic structure change in Chongqing are significant at the level of 0.0 1, and there is a high dependence, and industrialization, urbanization and non-agricultural production expand rapidly. As a key natural factor, the input of land resources can promote the development of regional economy through the change of land use structure. However, the trend of the relationship between economic structure and land use change shown in Figure 7 fluctuates greatly.
Fig. 7 Correlation analysis between economic structure and land use structure change
3 Chongqing land use and economic development coupling relationship analysis
3. 1 Economic growth is the main macro-driving factor for the change of cultivated land quantity in Chongqing.
The decrease of cultivated land area in Chongqing is basically in step with the growth of economic development. The regional GDP and primary output value in Chongqing are negatively correlated with the change of cultivated land area (correlation coefficients are -0.9745 and -0.9356 respectively), and the regional GDP and cultivated land area are Y =-52.69X+ 14823 (Y is the regional GDP and x is the cultivated land area). Regional economic development will inevitably occupy cultivated land, that is, the cultivated land area in Chongqing is decreasing in the process of economic development.
3.2 There is an obvious coupling relationship between construction land and Chongqing's economic growth.
From 1996 to 2005, the correlation coefficients of Chongqing's regional GDP, non-agricultural added value and construction land area reached 0.98 1 and 0.9886 respectively, and the coupling model was y = 211.1x-9082. It shows that the growth of Chongqing's GDP is an important factor. The correlation coefficient between investment in fixed assets and construction land area reached 0.9864, and Chongqing's economic development was mainly driven by investment. The level of economic development and urbanization has led to the expansion of construction land.
3.3 There is a coupling relationship between fixed assets investment and construction land.
The correlation between fixed assets investment and construction land area in Chongqing has reached a very significant level (0.9864 >r9, 0.0 1 = 0.735), and its coupling model is y = y = 0.0051x+47.286 (y is construction land area and x is fixed assets investment). The growth of fixed assets investment promotes the increase of construction land area, and the change of construction land scale is influenced by the scale of fixed assets investment and the difference of regional economic development speed and level.
3.4 Land use structure and economic structure are coupled.
The coupling model of economic structure evolution and land use structure change in Chongqing is y = 0.0041x+1.0516 (y is the change of land use structure and x is the change of economic structure). From 1996 to 2003, the correlation coefficient between economic structure evolution and land use change was extremely significant and positive. The economic structure of Chongqing is highly related to the change of land use, and the input of land plays an important role in promoting the economic development of Chongqing.
4. Thinking about the coupling relationship between land use and economic development
The coupling relationship between land use and economic development is mostly analyzed by using regional land use change data and economic development indicators, which are historical data. Therefore, when analyzing the coupling relationship between regional land use and economic development, we basically get the coupling relationship between land use and economic development at a certain stage in history, which represents the influence of land use on economic development and economic development on land use at this stage in history, and also reflects the regional economic growth mode, land use efficiency and land contribution to economic development at a certain historical stage. With the change of economic growth mode and the requirement of building a conservation-oriented society, the increment of land resources, especially construction land, brought by economic growth may be much lower than before. Therefore, the coupling relationship between regional land use and economic development also reflects the sustainable characteristics of regional economic growth mode and regional resource utilization.
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