National volume 2
(Applicable areas: Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang and Hainan)
Read the material and write as required. (60 points)
During World War II, in order to strengthen the protection of fighter planes, the British and American military investigated the distribution of bullet marks on surviving planes after the war and decided to strengthen them where there were many bullet marks. However, statistician Ward believes that more attention should be paid to the parts with less bullet marks, because it is difficult for soldiers with serious injuries in these parts to have a chance to return, and this part of the data is ignored. As it turns out, Ward was right.
Requirements: Synthesize the content and significance of the materials, choose a good angle, define the concept, define the style, and draw up a good topic by yourself; Do not copy or copy; Not less than 800 words.
Composition analysis
A "Cool" College Entrance Examination Composition
It's actually about "survivor bias"
I feel that the composition of the college entrance examination in Gao Qian, Shaanxi Province is the most chilling among all the compositions of the college entrance examination ... On the morning of June 7th 1 1: 30, the Chinese subject of the college entrance examination ended, and it was time for the whole people to write a composition. However, you may not understand the composition of Shaanxi college entrance examination this year after reading it several times.
Seemingly simple, in fact, the "pit" is deep.
Can be combined with the current situation of Xi' an to write.
Yesterday, after the Chinese course, a candidate told the Huashang Daily reporter: "When I saw the materials, I thought that the first topic was' Truth is often in the hands of a few people', and the final composition topic was it. I am very ignorant after writing. "
The topic of composition also triggered a heated discussion among netizens. "Is there anyone as hazy as I am?" Netizen "Kakaxi" said, "I can't even understand the topic." Netizen "Ma Jianbin" said: "The feeling is the coolest among several sets of questions, which makes people feel cool."
The netizen "fat and pointed" said: "This topic seems simple, but it is actually very deep. I estimate that many candidates will fall into the pit of arguments such as "better late than never", "nip in the bud" and "truth is often in the hands of a few people". It seems to be close, but in fact it is essentially different from the arguments reflected in the materials. Personally, I think the essence of this topic is to see the essence through phenomena. When analyzing problems, most people only pay attention to what they see with their eyes, often without considering the essence behind the phenomenon, and those problems that are not seen, not thought of and hidden behind the phenomenon are the most deadly. Ward saw the surviving planes, but he thought of those that didn't fly back. This is the key. "
It is also said that it can be written in combination with the current situation of Xi 'an-Xi 'an is a civilized city with a deep historical imprint. In the talent war in Xi, there are advantages and disadvantages. The gathering of talents represents the development of Xi 'an, but the lack of logistics makes it difficult to retain talents. Since talents are needed, we must find ways to solve the logistics problem. All this stems from the ancient truth that "the soldiers and horses have not moved food and grass first." Without a good living environment and traffic environment, who will come? Although it is said that it is necessary to pay attention to the places that are often beaten when repairing fighter planes, it is a precaution. It is impossible to win the battle only by preventing it. Therefore, it has also been suggested that you should pay attention to where you are not injured, because you will not suffer from comprehensive protection. This topic embodies a sentence-"sustainable development can win the final victory."
Emphasize logical thinking ability
Scientific rational character
Guo Kai, a invited lecturer in the Chinese Business Composition Lecture Hall, a researcher at Shaanxi Development Center, and a teacher training expert lecturer in the "National Training Program" of the Ministry of Education, told the Huashang Daily reporter that it is not difficult to draw a conclusion by studying the materials and closely following the key words: ① "strive for public opinion", advocate science and dare to question; 2 "Insist on your own opinions" and follow logical and rational judgment; ③ "The result is correct", trying to avoid the trap of empiricism. (4) "data negligence", penetrating the appearance to see the essence.
In terms of spiritual connotation, Shaanxi Volume II focuses on the development of students' core literacy and examines the "scientific spirit" in the "cultural foundation". Its spirit mainly includes three aspects: rational thinking, critical questioning and bold exploration.
Post-examination reflection: There are some disadvantages in daily Chinese composition teaching, such as emphasizing form over content, emphasizing technique over writing, emphasizing explanation over reading, emphasizing routine over thinking, emphasizing emotion over speculation, emphasizing random proposition over systematic training, which should arouse our sufficient attention and be a very important reminder to future candidates: developing thinking ability and improving thinking quality are the basic essence of core literacy.
Survivor Deviation is not a super class.
You can talk about one-sidedness or comprehensiveness.
Zhang Jiancheng, deputy director of the teaching and research section of Xi 'an Far East No.2 Middle School and a provincial teaching expert, believes that the phenomenon in the materials can be summarized as "survivor bias", which refutes a common logical fallacy ("fallacy" rather than "bias"). This refuted logical fallacy means that you can only see some screening results, but you are not aware of the screening process, so you ignore the key information that has been screened.
It can be discussed from the following points:
1. A leaf can't see Mount Tai-on one-sidedness and comprehensiveness. By analyzing the materials, it will be found that the plane that can fly back after being hit shows that the damaged part is not the key part, and the damaged fuel tank engine can not fly back, so the process of starting screening is wrong and the result is bound to be wrong. From the observation of social life phenomena, for example, Peking University talents sell meat at the personal level, academic scores are king, and technological narcissism … may all be the result of one-sided screening. The article can think dialectically from both sides to avoid the bias of survivors, rather than the one-sided cognition after wrong screening.
2. Insist on the truth in public opinion-on the questioning spirit of science. In today's era of big data with information explosion, analyzing information is more important than possessing information. How to analyze and filter useful information is one of the essential abilities of individuals, which requires critical thinking and questioning spirit. For example, some netizens often kidnap others emotionally without knowing the truth, and will not think calmly and analyze carefully, or some people "pretend to be confused" and "pour their own bottom" on hot issues, which leads to chaos on the Internet.
The statistical theory "survivor bias" embodied in the materials cannot be said to be beyond the students' cognitive scope, but it is precisely the embodiment of subject integration and comprehensive literacy. Students should be exposed to these words if they read a lot, and there are many more: broken window effect, Matthew effect, black swan, gray rhinoceros incident and so on. Even if it is not mentioned in Chinese class, politics and math class will also be involved.
Don't "read only the book of sages"
Dialectical thinking on all-round development
Tian Jialin, a high school Chinese teacher attached to Shaanxi Normal University, believes that there are not many "traps" in this year's composition questions, and the focus is on students' thinking level and writing ability. Candidates are required to abandon the "self" of "reading only sage books" and be an "atmospheric" person with all-round development and dialectical thinking.
Tian Jialin believes that candidates can consider the intention of the composition from at least five aspects:
First, pay attention to systematic thinking and look at the problem comprehensively. Candidates can use the fable of the blind touching the elephant to think about how to avoid "one leaf can't see Mount Tai". In fact, it is very important to deal with problems with systematic thinking in both study and life.
Second, unqualified samples should not be ignored. In real life, people pay more attention to the winners, in fact, the failed samples are more worthy of observation and reflection. It is mentioned in this material that the part that is shot less may not be returned once it is shot, which is the factor that guides people to learn from failure and succeed.
Third, don't be confused by appearances. In the materials, the military only pays attention to the places where there are many bullet marks that need to be reinforced, ignoring the places where there are few bullet marks that need to be reinforced. This reminds us that piecemeal thinking is not desirable, and we should understand things more rationally and deeply.
Fourth, fans are fascinated, and bystanders are clear. In this material, the army is in a war, and its eyes are obscured by the desire to survive and win. At this time, onlookers can see the lifeblood and core better, so candidates can also make ideas from this level.
The fifth is not superstitious about data and so-called professionals. The military in the material is experienced, and its investigation also has objective data, but the statisticians are not led by the nose, but pay attention to those ignored and unacceptable data, so as to draw more accurate judgments. Therefore, it is also a direction not to blindly believe in authority and not to give up your own thinking and judgment easily.
Write with profound thoughts
It is difficult to think and write.
Zhang Dechang, a senior teacher in Huaqing Middle School and a special-grade teacher in Shaanxi Province, believes that this year's college entrance examination essay questions are based on cultivating students' ability to understand and participate in society, focusing on examining students' critical thinking and their ability to deal with and analyze problems.
Teacher Zhang believes that the intention of the composition is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:
First of all, we should look at the problem comprehensively. Only by understanding the problem comprehensively can we make a scientific conclusion. Pay special attention to the neglected places. As the material said, most people only saw the seriously injured part of the plane, but didn't notice the slightly injured part. However, Ward analyzed that once these minor injuries were seriously injured, the consequences would be unimaginable. Candidates can be extended from the perspective that ordinary people should be paid more attention to in real life. Although they are often inconspicuous, once problems arise, they will involve a wide range. For example, we can learn from cities. If there are no migrant workers, such as breakfast sellers, cleaners and construction workers, can they still operate normally?
Secondly, we should have the courage to stick to our own views. As long as we stick to the conclusions drawn through scientific analysis, we should not be * * * by authority.
Third, we must have the ability to prevent setbacks. The plane in the material can fly back because some parts are not injured. If these parts are injured, the plane can't fly back. Candidates can extend from anti-frustration education.
Teacher Zhang Dechang believes that this year's college entrance examination composition focuses on cultivating students' critical thinking, and should have the overall situation and truth-seeking consciousness. These are all essential elements for a person's success, which can be discussed from a big aspect, such as national development and policy formulation, or from a small aspect, such as human growth. Most students can write their own opinions according to the materials, but it is still very difficult to write a profound and thoughtful composition. Huashang Daily reporter Wei Leifu Meng Qi
Distracted thinking
On the problem of school choice fever
It is easy for people to make the mistake of "survivor bias"
Professor Zhang and several colleagues from the School of Statistics of the University of Finance and Economics also had a heated discussion when they saw the composition topic of Shaanxi college entrance examination, because the materials reflected the "survivor bias" of statistical theory. Talking about the composition of the college entrance examination, Zhang said, "The topic is very good, but it is a bit difficult for high school students. If I write a composition for the college entrance examination, I will talk about the scientific decision-making of individuals, enterprises and governments from the perspective of epistemology. "
"Survivor bias was originally a statistical concept, also known as survivor bias, in order to avoid decision-making bias such as' silent data' and' dead people can't talk'. Nowadays, "survivor prejudice" has its own moral explanation in statistics, economics and philosophy. From a statistical point of view, the sample data obtained for decision-making should be representative. If there is a' selective sample', the inference will be biased and the conclusion will naturally be wrong. "
"Survivor bias" is a common mistake in our life. For example, a child said that my sister wore a flowered shirt, drank milk and ate eggs and was admitted to Peking University. I also want to wear a flowered shirt, drink milk and eat eggs, and I can be admitted to Peking University. For example, when choosing a school, parents' idea is that "you will be admitted to a good university in the world", but in fact, getting into a good university is also related to many factors such as personal talent, diligence and teacher training. Also, when I went to see a doctor, my relatives and friends advised me to see a doctor. Perhaps only one person in 100 has recovered, which is not necessarily due to excellent medical skills, but also individual differences. These phenomena are all decision-making paradoxes caused by biased information.
In reality, enterprises like to learn from successful enterprises and study hot fields, but they don't see that the essential information of their success may be invisible. For example, the success of Alibaba depends not only on the personal ability of managers, but also on many factors such as that era and that environment. Enterprise learning is very important, but comprehensive information must be mastered in decision-making, otherwise, the possible conclusion is wrong.
The success of a local government in learning advanced experience from other regions has common problems, but there are also factors such as region and geographical location. In the process of learning, if the information is not sufficient and comprehensive, it may also lead to decision-making deviation. Therefore, whether individuals, enterprises, governments or even countries make decisions, they must first ensure that the information from the decision-making sources is sufficient and comprehensive, and then analyze and sort out the inherent essential factors in the information, and finally make appropriate strategic decisions. A typical example of the opposite is "seeing the trees but not the forest" or "learning from the East is effective". This requires that in the era of big data, information sources and data sources should be sufficient, comprehensive, diversified and multi-channel, so as to effectively avoid the deviation of decision-making information and avoid "survivor deviation".