At the China Development Forum held on March 24th, how the Sino-US trade war with the world ended attracted much attention.

Since 20 18, Sino-US economic and trade relations have been "shrouded in dark clouds". From imposing restrictions on imported photovoltaic products and large washing machines, to taxing imported steel and aluminum products, to announcing the results of 30 1 survey and imposing high tariffs on about 60 billion US dollars of goods imported from China, the United States' trade protectionist measures against China have intensified.

What does America want?

So far, the United States has put forward 30 1 survey "big stick" more than 120 times. The most famous case is the investigation of 30 1, which forced Japan to make substantial concessions on the issue of automobile trade. It is Wright Heze, the current US Trade Representative, who has played a big role in this matter.

Some scholars have analyzed that what the United States is doing now is exactly the same as that of that year. They all use the 30 1 investigation as a means of deterrence and intimidation to pressure other countries to make concessions.

At the development high-level forum, this move by the United States was "squeezed out" by the participants.

Stephen roach, a senior researcher at Yale University, said that American policy is determined by the "eccentric thinking" of current President Donald Trump. Although there are some advisers to assist the president, this policy is worrying. "The United States is a little lost."

Former us treasury secretary summers also bluntly said that the policy logic of the current us government is "difficult to understand." He said that the great relationship between big countries lies in respecting each other's dignity and traditions and cooperating on issues of common concern. China and the United States can work together to build a better world, but "if a trade war is fought, it is unlikely to win."

"I don't believe that a trade war can solve the problem, and it is useless to fight a trade war", Lawrence, CEO of BlackRock Group? Fink called on Trump to "look at the financial market and listen to the voice of the market": both China and the United States benefit from globalization. More importantly, the world needs a stronger China and the United States and does not want to see a trade war break out in the first two economies.

What can China do?

Officially, China is ready for a trade war. Cui Tiankai, China's ambassador to the United States, said that China does not want to engage in a trade war with any party and is still trying to avoid it. But if someone insists on fighting, we will resolutely fight back. China will not yield to any threats, coercion or intimidation. We are considering all options and will take all necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of China.

Chen Deli, director of the Department of Law and Law of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said in an interview a few days ago that China is fully prepared to resolutely defend its legitimate interests, and these countermeasures will be "comprehensive". China will pay close attention to the progress of the US 30/KLOC-0 investigation into China, and "once China's interests are damaged, it will resolutely take action".

While actively defending rights and preparing for the battle, China will continue to open wider to the outside world at its own pace and pace, and promote the liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment.

In the 20 18 government work report, China has clearly proposed to build a world-class business environment, fully liberalize the general manufacturing industry, expand the opening up of telecommunications, medical care, education, pension, new energy vehicles and other fields, and promised to strengthen intellectual property protection.

Analysts said that China has demonstrated its firm determination to open wider to the outside world, which will bring more development opportunities to the world.

Lou Jiwei, former Minister of Finance of China, said that one of the successful experiences of China's reform and opening up is to fully accept international rules with an open attitude, embrace globalization and gradually accelerate the pace of opening up. Today, "China's direction is very clear, that is, national treatment plus a negative list, and follow this direction."

In the eyes of overseas scholars, China should also try to clarify misunderstandings.

Stephen roach said that Trump claimed that the US trade deficit with China was as high as 500 billion US dollars, but the actual figure was 375 billion US dollars, which was calculated according to the added value in China. The actual situation is 40% lower than this, maybe only 250 billion. "This is a big problem, and China didn't explain it to the world well. China should better explain the facts and China's role in global trade and value chain to the world. "

Where is the Sino-US trade war going?

In fact, this is not the first time that the United States has conducted a 30 1 survey on China. According to public information, 199 1 and 1994, the United States conducted two 30 1 special investigations on intellectual property rights in China, which were finally resolved by agreement.

In addition, 199 1, the United States launched a 30 1 investigation on China's market access barriers, and the two sides reached an understanding one year later. 20 10 the United States initiated an investigation into China's clean energy policy, and submitted a consultation request to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism on China's subsidies to wind power equipment manufacturers. After consultation, China cancelled the subsidy measures.

So, what about this time? Is it war or peace?

"I don't know the answer," said Pascal Lamy, a former WTO director-general. "Whether a series of tariff measures introduced by the United States will make everyone renegotiate or destroy the entire trading system", these two interpretations have made sense so far. "

He pointed out that the United States, India and other economies do have "different opinions" on the current trading system, but "it will be a great risk if the whole trading system is destroyed or unstable because of these dissatisfaction." It is necessary to improve the multilateral trading system, including further opening up the market and better implementing the discipline of investment and subsidies, "but all these must be achieved through negotiations."

Of course, it is a happy result to end the negotiation. After all, the trade war between the world's top two economies will not only impact the economies of China and the United States, but also be unbearable for the whole world.

In Summers' words, it is incorrect for the United States to regard China as its enemy. The economic fate of the United States depends largely on external factors, and it is impossible to outshine others. "Trade wars, like nuclear wars, have no winners."

It is worth noting that on the morning of March 24th, Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, Vice Premier the State Council, director of China Financial Office and Chinese leader of China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, telephoned US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin at an appointment, saying that China was ready and had the strength to defend national interests, and hoped that both sides would remain rational and work together to maintain the overall stability of China-US economic and trade relations. The two sides agreed to continue to communicate on this.