-East, Central and West

Jia Yandong Zhang Hongxing

(School of Statistics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics 6 10074)

Abstract: There is a relationship of mutual restriction and promotion between education and economic development, but the transmission links of this relationship are not always coordinated. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the correlation between education and economic growth in 365,438+0 provinces in China through panel data model, and finds that the coordination between education and economic development in China is different in the eastern, central and western regions. With the economic growth, education investment in different regions has increased, but the process from the increase of education investment to the improvement of education level and the promotion of education development to economic growth is not coordinated.

Keywords: coordinated development, economic growth, education development, panel data.

I. Introduction

The increase of government investment in education promotes the formation of human capital and the speed of technological innovation, which in turn promotes the growth of the whole economy. Sustained economic growth provides the necessary conditions for education investment and stimulates its further growth. Many theoretical and empirical studies have come to the conclusion that education and economic development promote each other and influence each other. If this relationship exists from education investment to economic growth to further investment, we think that the relationship between education and economic development is coordinated. However, by reviewing the development of economy and education in different countries in different periods and analyzing a series of problems in recent years, such as the unreasonable educational structure, the decline of education level caused by the expansion of enrollment, and the difficulty of graduates' employment, we can find that this coordinated development relationship between education and economy does not always exist. Cai Zengzheng (1999) analyzed the contribution of education to economic growth in three periods in 194 countries, and found that the productivity of the education sector was lower than that of other sectors in the economy. In different stages of economic development, the role of education in economic growth is different, showing a trend of weakness first, then strength, and finally a slight decline. Lu Genyao and Zhu (2004) came to the conclusion after analyzing the data of China in recent ten years: the role of education in China's economic growth is low. From this, we believe that the relationship between education and economic development is different because of different countries, different stages of economic development, different development models and different environments, and it is not always coordinated.

Especially for China in the transitional period, the coexistence of institutional compulsion and induced changes (Lin Yifu 1989), the imbalance of regional economic development and the particularity of educational product supply have led to different manifestations of this relationship. Therefore, how to judge the current coordinated development of education and economy in China, how to analyze the relationship and problems of coordinated development of education and economy among regions in China, how to deal with the problems of education supply and education development in the process of development, and how to find the possible reasons for uncoordinated development are extremely important.

Second, the background and literature

Most studies on the relationship between education and economic development only focus on the contribution of education to economic growth. This is related to people's cognitive process. According to the historical investigation of educational economists on the development of educational economics, more than 2,000 years ago, both Confucius in China, Plato and Aristotle in ancient Greece had related discussions (Cai Zengzheng, 2003). Terec (Tilak 1989) thinks that Plato not only points out the importance of education, but also relates to the relationship between education and a country's economic growth. Cai Zengzheng (2003) and others thought that China's Confucius had similar views and made a simple and effective summary. Not only that, William, the originator of economics? Patty, Adam? Smith, Malthus, Carl? Marx, Marshall and Fisher all put forward the economic idea that education can promote a country's economic growth (Yao Yilong, 2004).

From the perspective of modern economic growth economics, the modern scholar who really regards education as the endogenous variable of economic growth is Solo 1957 1960). When he used the production equation to examine the input-output relationship, he made unexplained "surplus" contributions other than traditional production factors such as capital and labor, put forward the viewpoint of technological progress factors, and actually indirectly pointed out the contribution of education to economic growth. Undoubtedly, the most comprehensive, detailed and classic theory about the role and contribution of education to economic growth should be the theory of human capital. Schultz delivered a speech entitled "On Human Capital Investment" at the annual meeting of American Economics from 65438 to 0960, which systematically and profoundly expounded the theory of human capital and opened up a new field of human capital research. Schultz's human capital theory has five main points: first, human capital exists in people, which is manifested as the sum of knowledge, skills and physical strength (health status) values. The human capital of a country can be measured by the quantity, quality and working hours of workers. Second, human capital is formed by investment. There are five investment channels, including nutrition and medical care expenses, school education expenses, on-the-job personnel training expenses, personnel expenses incurred in the process of choosing a job and relocation expenses. Third, human capital investment is the main source of economic growth. Schultz said that the growth of human investment has undoubtedly improved the quality of work in the process of economic take-off, and these quality improvements have also become an important source of economic growth. Talent is the key to the prosperity of modern economy. Fourth, human capital investment is the best investment. The purpose of human investment is to obtain income. Schultz made a quantitative study on the relationship between American education investment and economic growth in 1929- 1957, and drew the following conclusions: the average rate of return of education investment at all levels is17%; The income from investment in education accounts for 70% of the increase in labor income; The growth of education investment income accounts for 33% of the national income growth. In other words, human capital investment is the investment with the highest rate of return. Fifth, the essence of the consumption part of human capital investment is durability, even more durable than the material durability of consumer goods.

After Schultz, the research on the contribution of education to economic growth showed diversity. On the one hand, with Gary Scholars represented by Baker and Denison think along Schultz's human capital theory. On the other hand, some scholars have applied some insights from information economics and international trade theory to the study of the contribution of education to economic growth, and obtained some conclusions that seem to refute the theory of human capital, but in fact they reach the same goal with the theory of human capital.

Domestic related research is also mainly analyzed from two aspects. On the one hand, the econometric model is used to quantitatively analyze the relationship between education investment or education development and economic growth. Mainly: Cai Zengzheng (1999) used the data of 194 countries and regions to investigate the contribution of education to economic growth in 1965- 1990. Three samples of low-income, middle-income and industrialized countries are estimated respectively. The contribution of education to economic growth is huge and substantial, and the spillover effect is not only positive, but also considerable; At the same time, it is found that the productivity of the education sector is lower than that of other sectors in the economy; The conclusion is that in the process of economic development, the effect of education on economic growth is weak at first, then strong, and finally slightly reduced. Lin Yong (2003) made an empirical analysis of the relationship between education and economic development in China by using the method of grey system analysis, and came to the conclusion that education promotes economic development and education development should pay attention to the coordination of internal structure. Sun (2003) used the cluster analysis, principal component analysis and grey correlation degree in the grey system method to analyze the relationship between education and economy under different education levels, and concluded that the overall level of correlation between education development level and economic development level in various provinces and regions in China is not high, and there is a gradient difference from backward category to high category. On the other hand, the discussion mainly focuses on the measurement and analysis of the contribution of education to economic growth. Representative ones are: Lu Genyao and Zhu (2004) used the model of education and non-education to measure the internal and external effects of education on China's economic growth and the spillover effects of education on non-education sectors. Li Ling (2004) used the static index system to calculate the contribution rate and contribution rate of China's education investment to economic growth; By establishing a dynamic regression model, the contribution level of education investment to economic growth is further proved. Then, the reasons for the low contribution of education investment to economic growth are analyzed in detail from three aspects: total education investment, education investment structure and education investment benefit. However, the research of Liu Shengyuan and Zhang (2000) and (2003) mainly focused on measuring and analyzing the degree of education promoting economic growth from the perspective of the output of the education sector.

From the above summary, it can be concluded that the existing related research generally measures and analyzes the role of education in the whole economic development process from the perspective of the influence of education on economic growth. In addition, it also shows that there is more analysis of the overall level and less analysis of the structure and regional differences; One-sided correlation calculation is the main feature, but the analysis of the coordinated relationship between education and economy is insufficient.

Based on this, this paper attempts to take 365,438+0 provinces in China as the object, and make a series of empirical tests on the coordination and correlation between the economic development level, education investment level and education development in the eastern, central and western regions of China, and make a quantitative analysis on its structure and formation characteristics to describe and judge the coordination between education and economic development in China.

Third, research ideas and empirical models.

1, research ideas

Education and economic development promote and restrict each other. This synergy is usually manifested in three links. First of all, from developing economy to increasing investment in education, this is a process of government behavior, which reflects the direct role of the state in the education economy. Secondly, the improvement of education level caused by the increase of education investment reflects the utilization rate of educational resources and the coordinated development level and development ability of the education system itself. The last link is that the quantitative improvement of education level has promoted the further economic growth. This process is not only the embodiment of the ability and efficiency of the education system to cultivate talents, but also the reflection of the human capital transformation ability of a national education system. The concrete manifestation of this coordination relationship is as follows: Figure 1.

In China, education, as a quasi-public product, is mainly provided by the government. The government not only promotes the development of education industry through financial support to establish various schools and provide various learning opportunities, but also promotes the expansion of individual payment for education through coordination mechanisms such as taxation. This process involves not only the change of total investment in education, but also the change and adjustment of government investment in education. As far as the education sector is concerned, the internal structure of education is unreasonable and the distribution of educational resources at all levels is uncoordinated, which affects the efficiency of resource utilization in the education sector. Therefore, it is very necessary to empirically test the coordination of different links in the coordinated development of China's education economy in combination with the current situation of China's regional economic development.

Based on the above understanding and analysis of the coordination relationship, we divide the process of analyzing and judging the coordinated development of China's education economy into the following three basic propositions for verification: 1, economic development promotes the increase of education investment; 1, the increase in education investment has improved the education level; 3. The improvement of education level has promoted economic growth. This paper will make an empirical test around the above three propositions.

2. Selection of empirical model.

For the test of the above proposition, we can boil down to estimating the following relational equation:

( 1)

(2)

(3)

We use a dynamic model to describe this correlation. The scale of current education investment is influenced by the level of current economic growth and the scale of previous education investment; The current level of education development is influenced by the insufficient investment in education in party flag and the previous level of education; The level of economic development is influenced by the current level of education and the previous level of economic development. It is the scale of education investment in the first province, the level of education development in the first province and the level of economic development in the first province. If the relationship between education and coordinated economic development is significant, the β coefficient values of each equation should be significantly different from 0.

Fourth, the measurement of data and variables.

This paper divides the whole country into 3 1 province (city) by province (or municipality directly under the central government). According to the national standards for dividing the central, eastern and western regions, the provinces are divided into three categories (see the following table 1):

Table 1: regional division

Regional province share

Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Hainan in the east.

Central Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei and Hunan

Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi and Yunnan in the west.

Select the relevant data of 1996-2003 in time. It should be noted that in the process of analysis, we summarized the relevant indicators of Chongqing and Sichuan. This is because the time length of indicators related to education investment in unified caliber accounting is 1996-2003, and the independent data of Chongqing began to be published after 1997. In order to increase the sample size as much as possible, we merged Sichuan and Chongqing from 1996.

1, measure of educational development level

Following the principles of comprehensiveness, comparability and operability, combined with China's specific situation, according to the basic education, vocational education, higher education and educational effect, the following 19 indicators are selected to form an education level measurement system, and the overall education development level, basic education level, vocational education level and higher education level in different periods in China are obtained by using the weighted composition method of principal components.

Specifically, we chose the proportion of primary school students, ordinary middle school students, middle school students, vocational middle school students, college students, primary school teachers, ordinary middle school teachers, middle school teachers and vocational middle school teachers in the total population, university teachers, primary schools, ordinary middle schools, vocational middle schools and universities. The number of illiterate and semi-illiterate people in each region, the number of people with primary school education in each region, the number of people with junior high school education in each region, the number of people with high school education in each region, and the number of people with college education or above. The indicators we choose here are the total indicators in a certain period of time. Before the principal component analysis, we calculate the change rate of the above indicators respectively to reflect the development and change of education in this period.

2. Measurement of education investment level and economic development level.

For education investment, this paper chooses the per capita national financial education funds (including budgetary education funds) in each region to measure. As far as the level of economic development is concerned, the combination of regional GDP, total fixed assets, labor productivity, total output value of tertiary industry and principal component weighting is chosen because education-related economic development indicators are considered in a certain period.

3. Principal component analysis of indicators.

Because this paper uses panel data, in the process of principal component analysis, we analyze the educational development level of different regions in the past three years, select the principal component with cumulative contribution rate above 85%, and weight it according to its variance contribution rate. Taking the average weight of three years as the final weight, the index of educational development level in different years in each region is obtained. Standardize the per capita education investment index, and average the principal components of economic development indicators such as GDP index, and get the education investment and economic development level in different regions and different periods respectively. The data of education development level, economic development and education investment all come from the relevant period of China Statistical Yearbook 1997-2004.

An Empirical Analysis of verb (abbreviation of verb)

Next, equations (1), (2) and (3) are estimated by using data from different regions, and the significance of the parameters is tested. Because we choose a dynamic lag variable, the heterogeneity of time dimension is not considered in the model.

In the estimation method, we adopt two estimation methods under two assumptions. The first is the fixed effect. We choose LSDV to estimate the parameters without variance. The other is random effect, which is estimated by GLS. Finally, these two hypotheses are tested by houseman test to determine the specific form of the model.

Because it is the estimation of three equations and two effects in three regions, there are many equation estimation and test results involved, so we only take the western region as an example, and we will give relevant results directly in other regions.

1, western region:

After houseman test, the equation (1) is a fixed effect model, and the specific results are as follows:

T value (1.668) (0.121)

=0.705 1

After houseman test, Equation (2) is a random effect model, and its specific results are as follows:

T value (8.44) (5. 12)

=0.8 1

Proposition 3 equation is a fixed effect model:

T value (1.51) (1.2) (18.68)

=0.93

From the above results, it can be concluded that the coordinated development of economy and education in the western region is not ideal. The correlation between economic growth and the increase of education investment is not significant, and the estimator of parameters in the equation fails to pass the significance level test. The promotion of education development to economic growth is not obvious, and the contribution of basic education and higher education to economic growth is not obvious. However, the correlation between education investment and education development is obvious, and the development of the overall level of education has a cumulative effect in time, which is consistent with the development of education industry. Therefore, there are some disadvantages in the relationship between education and economic development in the western region, such as insufficient education investment, low efficiency of education industry training and low effectiveness of talent transformation.

2, the central region:

The specific situation in the central region is as follows:

From the estimation results of the FE model to the central region, it can be seen that there is an obvious positive correlation between economic growth and the increase of education investment and the improvement of education level. Moreover, the lag effect is also obvious. Judging from the estimation of Equation (3), the correlation between the improvement of education level and economic growth is not clear. Among them, the influence of basic education and secondary vocational education on economic growth is not significant, and the correlation between higher education development and economic growth is obvious, but the absolute value is small. Therefore, the relationship between education and economic development in the central region is not harmonious, and there is the possibility of low educational efficiency.

The conclusion of regional correlation equation

middle

=0.96 T value (3. 19) (9.35)

(Fixed effect)

Xiang restaurant

=0.86 T value (5.09) (10.85)

(Fixed effect)

Xiang restaurant

=0.93 T value (1.65) (-1.95) (4.08) (7.34)

(Fixed effect)

faintish

3, the eastern region:

The specific situation in the eastern region is as follows:

The conclusion of regional correlation equation

east

=0.98 T value (4. 17) (13.4)

(Fixed effect)

Xiang restaurant

=0.90 T value (1.31) (22.1)

(Fixed effect)

faint

=0.97 T value (3.15) (0.55) (4.74) (14.75)

(Fixed effect)

Xiang restaurant

The estimation results of the eastern region show that there is a significant relationship between education investment and economic growth in the eastern provinces. However, the correlation between education development level and education investment between government departments is not obvious. This is not contradictory to the reality of our country. Since the 1990s, China has accelerated the pace of education system reform, and the liberalization of school-running entities and the reform of education fee system have made the sources of education funds in the eastern developed areas increasingly diversified. There is a significant correlation between the improvement of education level and the further economic growth, but the positive role of basic education and higher education is obvious, while the role of vocational education is weak.

VI. Some conclusions

This paper focuses on the regional characteristics of the coordinated relationship between education and economy in China. Through the above empirical analysis, we believe that the mutual promotion between China's economic growth and education development is not coordinated, as shown in the following:

First, from the perspective of the coordinated development of education and economy, China's education and economic development have different characteristics in the east, middle and west. From the regional point of view, the correlation between economic growth and education investment, the improvement of education level and economic growth in the western region is not strong, which shows that the relevant education investment and different education investment strategies of the government are unreasonable, and the ability of transforming educational resources into human capital is weak; The central region is not only closely related to economic growth, but also the ability of transforming educational investment into educational resources is stronger than that of the western region, but the economic transformation ability of educational resources is still not strong; In contrast, although the transformation ability between education investment and education level improvement in the eastern region is weak, its overall coordination relationship has been significantly improved compared with that in the central and western regions.

Secondly, from the overall horizontal point of view, the correlation between education investment and economic growth in any region is relatively strong, indicating that the government's educational product supply behavior is favorable and appropriate; The influence of education investment on the change of education level is strong in the middle and weak in the east and west; However, as far as the ability of transforming education into economy is concerned, there is a growing trend from the west to the east. This tells us that the development progress of different regions is different in different links of education and economy. The difference of educational development level is not entirely the difference of investment, and the gap between the realization of educational investment and the transformation of education into economic production capacity is also obvious. The promotion of different levels of education has different effects on economic growth, but secondary vocational education is in a weak position in the country.

Thirdly, from the time point of view, the correlation characteristics between the above different regions have not improved with the passage of time, but there are signs of increase. This shows that our views on the coordinated development of education economy are not comprehensive enough. Today, there are still situations that only focus on investment but not management, and only focus on quantity and not quality. It is very important to judge the coordination between education investment and economic development in China in time for economic development and the development of education industry.

Based on the above empirical conclusions, we put forward the following views:

First, education and economy promote each other, restrict each other and develop harmoniously. The irrationality of any link will lead to the disharmony of the overall development. Therefore, the government should start with the action mechanism and clarify the interaction mechanism in order to formulate more effective relevant policies.

Secondly, through empirical analysis, we can draw a conclusion that how to make effective and reasonable use of existing education investment and enhance the transformation from investment to improving education level is one of the important ways to solve the current coordinated development of education economy.

Thirdly, improving the effectiveness of education, especially the transformation of educational resources to production capacity in the western region, is an important topic we are facing in the development of the western region.

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