First of all, about the growth of The Secret Behind:

The ultimate fate of an enterprise has two characteristics: there is an upper limit on its life span, and the larger the enterprise is, the slower its growth rate will be. Why can't enterprises keep growing? Because there are two types of growth: market growth and enterprise growth.

Second, the comparative analysis of two different growth trends:

1. Growth at the market level: the cornerstone of the market is assumed to be discontinuous, emphasizing innovation and destruction. It is destructive thinking, using innovative enterprises to destroy old enterprises. When an enterprise in a certain industry develops rapidly, a large number of funds, talents and consumers in the market will be inclined to it. This way of "voting with your feet" makes the market growth rate higher than that of individuals and brings open growth.

2. Enterprise-level growth: the cornerstone of the enterprise is assumed to be sustainable, emphasizing management and sustainability. This is a kind of protective thinking. Faced with the conflict between old and new businesses, enterprises will choose to protect their main old businesses and give up new ones. The result of this protective thinking choice will bring closed growth, which is the so-called "big brother eats little brother effect"

The protective thinking of enterprises, the existence of this big brother eating little brother effect, makes enterprises unable to cross their own discontinuity and self-elimination. In order to pursue a lasting foundation, they chose to protect themselves, but lost sustained growth, and were eventually eliminated by the market and replaced by new excellent enterprises. What should we do?

Third, the second curve innovation is the only element of economic development.

Richard Foster said: Destruction is creation. Schumpeter called the process of market creation and elimination "creative destruction". If an enterprise wants to keep growing, it must leap to the second curve through creative destruction. The second curve innovation is also called discontinuous innovation. Compared with the first curve, it is not a gradual improvement and innovation along the original S curve, but a transition from one curve to another. It is the only factor of economic development.

Compared with the first curve (continuous innovation and gradual growth), the second curve is a transitional discontinuous innovation. The growth of the first curve will probably bring about 10% or about 20%, then crossing the second curve will bring about exponential growth and the speed of 10 times. The essence of the second curve innovation is that the parent system destroys the subsystem. The death of individuals realizes the continuation of race, the extinction of race realizes the continuation of nature, and the destruction of large companies promotes economic growth.

How can an enterprise last forever-it's amazing to be upright. Maintain righteousness and strive to prolong the life of the main business; Surprisingly, before the first curve reaches the financial limit, we need to actively explore the second curve to find the breakpoint of the second curve and the good factor of 10 times. Evergreen foundation is crossing the second curve again and again.

Avoid into the pit: 1, the first curve has not reached the breaking point and has not entered the self-growth momentum. Don't develop non-main business at will, the main business has no strong growth trend, and doing other innovations is not doing business; 2. If the growth rate of the first curve slows down, it is necessary to start the second curve, give more support to emerging businesses, and operate independently without being bound by the main business.

Fourth, key words

Discontinuity: it is a large-scale concept, and it is a process in which a mode of thinking suddenly changes into another mode within the framework of deduction. These three premises are natural selection, gradual compensation and metaphysical limitation.

Shape elements of the second curve: double S curve, discontinuous fault in the middle, breakpoints and limit points of the first curve, and breakpoints of the second curve.

analyse

The second curve model is suitable for combing the business history and personal development history of enterprises, departments and individuals.

The success of the second curve innovation needs three stages: 1, and the original main business enters a period of rapid growth; 2. Discontinuity of the original business; 3. Explore new business, actively cultivate new business, find a good factor of 10 times, break through the breaking point, enter a period of rapid growth of new business, cross discontinuity, and form a quadratic curve growth.

Case: Nintendo's Perfect Second Curve

1, industrial leap

Nintendo's initial business was a small ancestral workshop, and Yamauchi Pu soon became the first in the Japanese market. However, after his inspection in the United States, he found that the card industry is very limited, and he foresaw that there would be a limit point in the near future (the year-on-year growth continued to slow down, the industry growth exposed the ceiling, and the deterioration factor occurred ten times faster). At that time, the second curve began in the mountain, the old business cards continued to develop, the team structure was changed, and a large number of engineers were recruited. A number of independent small organizations have been set up, completely out of the original card, and they are doing new business attempts with small organizations, some making toys, some making electronic shooting halls, and some making couples hotels. There is no factor of getting better ten times faster. In the 1980s, the market environment changed, commercial game halls appeared, and color TV sets became popular. In order to cope with this change, Nintendo's independent small institutions have started new research, resources and talents. 1983, Nintendo launched a home color game machine, with a sales volume of 6.5438+0.6 million units, which broke through the breaking point and formed a second curve. Nintendo finally sold 60 million units. Nintendo completed a discontinuity and an industrial leap, from the card industry to the game industry. At this time, the game has become its main business.

Nintendo has experienced four leaps in the development history of industry, scene, crowd and scene, and achieved four perfect discontinuous innovations, from cards to games, from home game consoles to laptops, from core players to light users, and from stand-alone computers to Switch, each of which conforms to the second curve innovation model.

2.5 1Talk (dislocation competition of the second curve of the industry)

Founded on 20110,51talk, the first curve of the industry at that time was adult English giants such as ef and wall street, offline live-action teaching in Europe and America, and small classes and classrooms in high-end office buildings. 5 1Talk analyze the development trend of the industry, innovate beyond the mainstream standards of the industry, choose online teaching, and use foreign teachers in the Philippines. One-on-one way, using qq, Skype and other instant messaging to complete the teaching, low cost, high cost performance, quickly acquire the customer base outside the mainstream business, achieve rapid growth, and form its own first curve. By the second half of 20 14, the proportion of young users' income began to increase continuously, and this factor improved ten times faster. Then, a lot of money, personnel and specialized institutions were invested in the young people's business module, forming a teaching business for young people 1v 1, forming a second curve, driving the company to grow rapidly. 20 18, at present, the income contribution of youth education is close to 80%, exceeding the original first curve and becoming a new main business.

boundary

Start-ups, or individuals, have not yet formed the first curve of their main business in the early stage of their business. At this point, judging the deceptive disappointment area of the first curve as the first curve is close to the limit point, and exploring the second curve will be more likely to fail and fall into low-level repetition or tinkering.

doubt

Looking for the breakpoint of the second curve, sometimes we have to resist the pressure of many fans of the main business and throw cold water on it, especially in the period of no growth. How to improve the pressure resistance in this process?