Second, China regional spillover status analysis
(A sound industrial structure and advanced economic system are conducive to regional development.
When local industries establish close ties with other regions, capital and factors can flow freely, so final consumption will have a greater multiplier effect through the flow between industries in different regions, and promote the economic development of local and other regions. For example, the eastern coastal areas have a relatively perfect industrial structure and economic system, which not only has a good economic development, but also has a good radiation effect on the surrounding areas. For example, the Yangtze River Delta region has experienced radiation from Shanghai to Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and now it has begun to radiate to Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and other provinces.
(B) China has formed the core of long-term stability-the marginal structure.
From the perspective of China's regional economic development, the industrial structure in the eastern and southern coastal areas is relatively perfect, and the total economic output has always been in the leading position in the country. The interregional spillover effect is greater than that in other regions, while the interregional spillover effect in backward areas is very small. This can be explained by the relevant theories of new economic geography. Due to the existence of agglomeration force determined by the market effect of the home country and the price index effect, the dispersion force formed by mutual competition among enterprises will be greater than that when the degree of free trade is high, thus forming a stable core-periphery structure, which is difficult to change once it is formed. 1980, the GDP of the eastern region was 220.237 billion yuan, and that of the central and western regions was1369/kloc-0.2 billion yuan and 73.564 billion yuan respectively. The output value of eastern China is 1.6 1 times and 2.99 times that of central China and western China, respectively. After 28 years of development, by 20 10, the GDP of the eastern region increased to 250,487.94 million yuan, and that of the central and western regions increased to116817.56 million yuan and 69,736.49 million yuan, respectively, and the GDP of the eastern region was 2/kloc-0 of that of the central and western regions. Although China has implemented various preferential policies and invested heavily in the central and western regions at present, it has not fundamentally changed the position of each region in China's economic development.
(C) the intermediate demand rate determines the size of industrial spillover effect
The spillover effect of agriculture, mining and other service industries is greater, and the spillover effect of light industry, heavy industry and energy industry is greater. Agriculture, mining and mineral processing industries have little demand for intermediate products and little impetus to other industries, so the spillover effect is small and large; Other service industries mainly serve the local final demand, but also have a small spillover effect on other places. Light industry, heavy industry and energy industry have great demand for intermediate products, so the spillover effect is great. If the main purpose is to develop the local economy, we should develop industries with large spillover effects, because the output of these industries can promote the local economic development; To promote the coordinated development of regional economy, it is necessary to coordinate the industrial structure between regions according to local resources and industrial advantages. The eastern region of China is transforming from light industry to modern service industry, while the industries in the central and western regions are mainly extractive industries and heavy industries.
(d) Developed regions gain more benefits from economic spillovers.
Because developed regions have higher returns on scale and human capital to attract local and other regions' capital and talents, agglomeration economies and economies of scale will be generated, especially to attract funds and talents from relatively backward regions, or to obtain high profits from relatively backward regions through technological advantages. At present, many students in the central region with high education quality regard the eastern region as the goal of study and employment, and industries with high added value of culture and technology such as automobiles, shipbuilding and animation are basically concentrated in the eastern region. The economic growth in developed areas has not promoted the economic growth in backward areas. On the contrary, with the higher level of economic development, more perfect industrial structure and strengthened local economic status in the eastern region, backward areas have become "subsidence areas". From the perspective of spatial distribution, the economic spillover of adjacent areas is greater than that of non-adjacent areas. Of course, there are exceptions. If both regions are developed, even if the two regions are not adjacent, the spillover effect between them is great, which is called leap-forward diffusion or hierarchical diffusion.
Third, China regional economic spillover mechanism analysis
(A) Regional economic spillover mechanism based on vertical links
Vertical connection refers to the relationship between upstream and downstream industries. For example, coal mining enterprises provide coal to thermal power stations, which supply power to power grid companies, and power companies distribute electricity to users. These industries form a vertical chain.
Chenery and Watanabe divide various industries into four categories according to the difference between intermediate input rate and intermediate demand rate (table below). If the intermediate demand rate is large, the spillover effect of other industries on this industry is large, but the spillover effect on this industry is small; If the intermediate input rate is large, then the spillover effect of this industry on other industries will be large, and vice versa.
Industrial classification table
Industry, especially heavy industry, belongs to industries with high intermediate input rate and intermediate demand rate, so its spillover effect and spillover effect are greater; The intermediate input rate of agriculture is small, the intermediate demand rate is large, and the spillover effect is greater; If the industries with low intermediate demand rate and low intermediate input rate, such as public utilities, culture, education, health, scientific research and administration, are not considered, the industries with low intermediate demand rate and high intermediate input rate in other intangible production sectors, such as finance and real estate, will have a greater spillover effect. According to Petty-Clark Theorem, with the increase of per capita national income, labor and capital elements will gradually shift from the primary industry to the secondary industry and then to the tertiary industry. If the tertiary industry in some areas has been developed, the spillover effect of local industries on other industries will be greater. The same is true of interregional economy. If the final demand-oriented industry in a certain area is developed, it can promote the development of industries with high intermediate demand rate in the surrounding areas, and the business service industry can promote the development of industries such as industries and extractive industries in the local and surrounding areas.
(B) Regional economic spillover mechanism based on horizontal linkages
Horizontal linkage spillover effect refers to the spillover effect produced by enterprises in the same industry through demonstration effect, competition effect and personnel flow. This is because returns to scale are increasing. If local industries gather, the local output level will be higher than other regions. After reaching a certain level, it will spread to the periphery, which is the aggregation effect and diffusion effect in the general sense.
According to the theory of new economic geography, there are three effects: local market effect, price index effect and market congestion effect. Cohesion comes from domestic market effect and price index effect. There are local market effect and price index effect in China as a whole, among which the price index effect plays a greater role in regional industrial agglomeration. From a regional perspective, the local market effect and price index effect in the eastern region have a greater impact on economies of scale, while there is no obvious industrial agglomeration in the western region, and there is no obvious phenomenon of increasing returns to scale. This is because the imperfect local market system forms institutional barriers, geographical conditions and climate differences increase transportation costs, and the imperfect industrial structure reduces local actual purchasing power. Diffusion force comes from market crowding out effect, which plays a role through the decline of actual purchasing power caused by the rise of price level. The rise in consumer goods and land prices has led to a decline in people's actual purchasing power and an increase in the cost of living. At this time, enterprises and labor began to transfer to other regions, and diffusion began to appear. As far as China is concerned, the horizontal economic spillover of developed regions to other regions is always negative, that is, the agglomeration effect of developed regions is less than the diffusion effect. If we rely on market forces to allocate resources, then backward areas will never catch up with developed areas, and this gap will widen.
Fourthly, the balanced development strategy of China regional economy.
Both developed and backward regions need to consider "efficiency" and "fairness". At present, China's development policy is "giving priority to efficiency and giving consideration to fairness". From the perspective of regional economic spillover, different regions can adopt different development models to realize the rapid and balanced development of China's regional economy.
(1) Developed regions have continuously improved their industrial structure and expanded their economic spillover effects.
Perfect industrial structure can expand local multiplier effect and regional spillover effect. At present, the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries in developed areas in eastern China is relatively large, while the proportion of primary industry is relatively small. For example, in 20 10, the GDP of the eastern region was 23,203.07 billion yuan, accounting for 53. 1% of the national total, and the secondary industry and the tertiary industry accounted for 49.37% and 44.33% of the local total output respectively. The eastern region should determine the dominant industries according to its own development characteristics, and gradually reduce the proportion of the secondary industry, especially heavy industry, develop knowledge-intensive and cultural value-added industries, and expand the spillover effect to other places.
(b) Developed regions should actively develop final demand-oriented industries, while backward regions should develop intermediate input-oriented industries.
Developed areas can gradually change from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry, which will promote the economic development of the surrounding backward areas, while the backward areas can provide intermediate products for the development of the final demand-oriented industries in developed areas and obtain corresponding benefits by developing intermediate input-oriented industries. This can establish a trans-regional industrial chain and improve the national industrial structure.
(3) The central region needs to do a good job of connecting the preceding with the following.
From the perspective of vertical economic spillover, the economic development of the central region is very important. The proportion of tertiary industry in the eastern region is increasing, and the industries in the western region are concentrated in the primary product stage such as agriculture, mining and mineral processing, so the industrial selection and upgrading in the central region is particularly important. Only by actively developing intermediate products industry, processing primary products and providing intermediate products for final demand products can a relatively complete industrial chain be formed. Moreover, when the enterprises that do not have competitive advantages in the eastern developed areas begin to move to the backward areas, the central region can undertake related industries at this time, and some industries in the central region can also move to the western region.
(4) The government should increase its support and break through the boundary between aggregation and diffusion.
According to the theory of new economic geography, with the increase of trade freedom (transaction cost decreases), agglomeration and diffusion will change, but only after reaching a certain level will sudden agglomeration and diffusion occur. Therefore, when formulating relevant policies, the government must consider the strength and time span of implementation, so that backward areas can enjoy the benefits brought by development. Otherwise, even if efforts are made, they will still fall into the strange circle of "getting poorer and poorer, getting richer and richer".
(Author: School of Management, Zhejiang Media College)