In fact, this policy can reduce educational competition. After all, there is no extracurricular counseling institution, that is, there is a demand for extracurricular counseling, and no educational counseling institution can meet this demand.
The side effect of this policy is to reduce consumption. I am watching the news. In some places, with the disappearance and closure of extracurricular counseling institutions, catering and other service industries (bookstores, canteens, etc.). ) nearby, there are some local business centers. With the closure of extracurricular tutoring institutions on the third floor, restaurants on the second floor and children's products on the first floor also closed down.
There's a reason for spending money. Consumption is based on demand. Reducing opportunities for going out means reducing consumption. People can order takeout and cook for themselves to meet their needs. I didn't expect that cracking down on extra-curricular tutoring would have a negative impact on the consumption and catering industries.
The importance of education lies in that it is the best way to achieve class leap. Even Amin, the former general secretary of Afghanistan, did his homework, then went to study in the United States with a scholarship and finally got a master's degree. Finally, the children of an ordinary Afghan family can make a leap through education. It's possible.
If everyone doesn't attend remedial classes, the competitive pressure will be much less. Education is a competitive process, so that educational resources can be used more effectively. Not attending remedial classes depends entirely on talent and hard work. This state can only exist in imagination. I still remember the first time I took the subway in Chengdu, a big city rich in resources in China. What about the fairness of educational resources?
In fact, South Korea has also formulated a policy to crack down on extra-curricular tutoring. Therefore, the phenomenon of "villa tutoring" (private tutors are invited in villas for one-on-one tutoring) has intensified the solidification of the class, hindered the efficient use of resources, and further made educational equity an empty talk.
I saw a summer nursery class for children of cadres and workers organized by an organ of the Shandong Provincial Political Consultative Conference to strengthen the education of party history. In China, there is a "Course of Party History", which is to reduce the pressure on parents to raise their children. After all, children can understand a lot after listening to the history of the party, and there is also a problem of the allocation of educational resources.
2. What does the author think of the decline in the proportion of high school admissions?
This policy is really not a lack of educational resources in China, but a solution to the structural employment problem in China. After all, 7 million college students graduate every year in China, which is a huge employment pressure. On the other hand, China's manufacturing industry is facing difficulties in retaining people.
The manufacturing industry can't find people, rather it can't keep them. After all, three interns in our company have left on the same day this year. The current situation is that the manufacturing industry can find people, but it can't keep them. The upgrading of manufacturing industry needs not only the breakthrough of high-end technology and key technology, but also the contribution of a large number of technicians in related industries to transform technology into production capacity.
However, young people are not interested in manufacturing. If they don't insist on manufacturing, how can they accumulate manufacturing experience, let alone high-level manufacturing technicians?
The problem that manufacturing can't keep people is that its profits are far from the high profits and freedom of service industry. Without high profits, enterprises can't pay high wages. Without high wages, how can they keep people? The manufacturing industry faces machines, while the service industry faces people. The human brain is unwilling to accept something that cannot be changed. If you keep this state for a long time, it will become boring.
The policy of diverting senior high school entrance examination is to increase educational competition. China still hopes that children can blow air conditioners in the office instead of working in the factory. Because their parents have experienced factory life, they will make their children not want to live this life.
The structural employment problem in China is caused by the decline of labor force since 20 15. For manufacturing, there is no growing labor force. Facing the reduction of the total labor force, the manufacturing industry faces not only the freedom of work, but also the prosperity of the location (the service industry is in the city, and the manufacturing industry is not necessarily in the location), the working environment (the manufacturing industry is inevitably exposed to some toxic and harmful substances) and, most importantly, the salary is not high.
Isn't the purpose of educational policy to reduce the pressure of educational competition?
When the interval between the policy of diverting senior high school entrance examination and cracking down on extracurricular tutoring is less than half a year, these two policies with completely opposite effects can effectively reduce the cost of raising children and let more families have a second child.
The other is to divide the senior high school entrance examination so that vocational education will not disappear with the decrease of the birth population. After all, many towns and villages have cancelled primary schools, and they will all be in the next four or five years. If the enrollment ratio of high schools is not changed, many schools in the vocational education system will close down in the next seven to eight years because they can't find people, just like the disappearing primary schools.
One more thing, with the decrease of population, if the current university scale remains unchanged, only 120,000 junior high school students will graduate in 2032, and only 6 million students will go to high school, then the remaining12 million people will go abroad to look for it.
As we all know, China is not a country where domestic subsidies are higher than foreign subsidies. A large number of international students will inevitably increase the financial pressure on the education sector.
The educational resources left by family planning are not enjoyed by China people, but by foreigners, which is unacceptable to most people in China.
4. What does the author think of this change in family planning law?
The first, of course, is the opening of the third child. After the single three-child policy was not formulated, it proved that the influence of the family planning commission on the decision-making level weakened. After all, it was suggested to open the second child in 20 15, but it was said by Professor Zhai, a population expert, that the full opening of the second child would make the birth population reach more than 40 million, making the full opening of the second child a separate second child, that is, both parents are only children to have a second child.
At the moment when the cost of childbirth is getting higher and higher, I think the open birth restriction policy has little effect on improving the fertility rate, but it has paid little. For the government, this is a very low-cost attempt.
At present, the abolition of social support payments is two points for the general family population. Similarly, this policy has paid little. Social support is a kind of disguised tax. When almost no one will pay this tax, what will be the impact of canceling this tax?
Social support is one of the means to raise the cost of raising children artificially in the period of low cost of raising children. However, at present, there is no need to artificially increase the cost of raising children from the perspective of high housing prices (you must buy a house to get married), high marriage costs (bride price, wedding), financial binding of educational resources and land (the reduction of school districts and public educational resources), and educational arms race (the burden of public schools is reduced, extra-curricular cram schools are increased, and the learning pressure of junior and middle schools is greatly increased).
On the contrary, having children now provides a considerable market demand, including milk powder, diapers, preschool education, parent-child activity education, school districts, textbooks and corresponding counseling materials, and also contributes to the labor force after 16.
It also marks that China has changed from a policy of restraining multiple births to a policy of encouraging births, which is also a key change.
5. Does the author have any views on the future?
Because the number of people born between 2000 and 20 10 is declining continuously, even if all the people born after 10 live to adulthood, get married and have two children, the number of people born will not exceed 20 million, because there were not 20 million people born in China in 2000.
There will be a negative population growth in the future 10, and the population born in the next 30 years will not exceed 20 million. Therefore, it is of little significance to pay attention to the absolute value of the birth population. We should pay attention to where the lower limit of China's future fertility rate is and when it will rise. Only when the fertility rate reaches 2. 1 can we complete the result of the replacement of the times.
However, even the United States does not have a birth rate of 2. 1. Countries with a living rate below 2. 1 need to introduce immigrants to balance the total population of the country. This is the necessity of introducing immigrants to Europe and America. If there is no national population growth, how to maintain the growth of the domestic consumer market? Without growth, the market economy will not run at a high speed.
I have heard too many changes in population policy this year, and the density of policies is enough to prove that time waits for no one, readers-the times have really changed.
Update some questions about Guizhou cement market next week.