China's economy "rebounded weakly" in the short term, and its long-term potential growth rate moved down.
Participants believe that China's economy is currently showing a "weak recovery" trend. From September 2065438 to September 2002, many important indicators of China's economic operation ended the bottom decline that lasted for more than two years and began to stabilize and rebound. However, in the first few months of 20 13, the recovery trend of various economic indicators showed differentiation: some indicators showed a slight decline during the recovery process; Some indicators continue to show an upward trend, but the recovery rate is not large. This shows that the upward momentum and downward pressure of the economy are intertwined, the upward momentum of the economy is not strong, and the foundation for economic recovery is not stable.
The main factors leading to the "weak recovery" of China's economy are as follows:
1 First of all, profound changes in the economic environment and background at home and abroad. Internationally, the world economy has entered a period of deep transformation and adjustment from the period of rapid development before the international financial crisis in 2008. The economic trend is complex and full of uncertainty, the impact of the crisis is still fermenting, and the demand in the international market is still sluggish. Domestically, China's economy is entering a transition period from a high-speed growth period to a low potential growth rate. In such a big environment and background, it is difficult for China's economy to enter a state of strong recovery. Secondly, macro-control policies have not been relaxed. This round of macro-control did not adopt a large-scale stimulus policy, but adhered to the general tone of steady progress, making overall consideration of steady growth, controlling prices, preventing risks and promoting sustained and healthy economic development.
2. In addition, due to the pressure of rising consumer prices and housing prices and the constraints of overcapacity, there is limited room for relaxation of macro-control policies at present.
3. The leading bodies at all levels are in a transitional period. The formation of new decisions and plans by various localities and departments requires a process of investigation, brewing, decision-making and implementation, and it is difficult to form a force to promote rapid economic recovery at once.
4. Economic cycle fluctuation is at a low point. The production, operation and financial situation of enterprises are difficult, the expected prospect of production, operation and investment in fixed assets is not optimistic, and enterprises are very cautious in expanding production and bank lending, which makes it difficult to start economic recovery. Especially in the case of increasing uncertainty in the domestic and international economic environment, the economic recovery is even weaker.
Judging from the long-term economic growth trend, with the continuous growth of China's economic aggregate, the potential economic growth rate will gradually decline. In the first quarter of 20 13, the GDP of China increased by 7.7% year-on-year, which was lower than the market expectation. Since the second quarter of 20 12, it has been below 8% for four consecutive quarters, indicating that China's economy is entering a period of medium and high-speed growth from high-speed growth. This is consistent with the change of potential growth rate in the transition from industrialization stage to urbanization stage in developed countries and Latin American countries.
Judging from some obvious signs, such as the decrease of capital elasticity and the increase of labor elasticity, the acceleration of population transformation, the slowdown of productivity, stricter carbon emission restrictions, the improvement of energy conservation and emission reduction standards, and the decrease of capital efficiency, China's economic slowdown is inevitable, and the existing investment-driven economic growth model is unsustainable. Participants believe that it is in line with economic laws to reduce the potential growth rate of China's medium and long-term economy to 7%-8%.
Industrialization and urbanization have great potential, which will push China to overcome the middle-income trap. According to the standards of the World Bank, China has entered the ranks of middle-income countries. However, the decline in economic growth has aroused people's concern about whether China will fall into the middle-income trap. Participants believe that according to the expected target of 7.5% annual economic growth in the coming period proposed by the central government, by 2020, China's per capita national income will exceed 1 billion US dollars, which will successfully overcome the middle income trap, and the economic growth rate of 7.5% is guaranteed, mainly based on the following points.
Industrialization has developed in depth. China has entered the middle and late stage of industrialization, but there are great regional differences. The level of industrialization in the eastern developed areas has reached a fairly high level, while the level of industrialization in the central and western regions is still low. From the perspective of regional industrial structure, there is isomorphism in technical level and product level in various regions, and this similar industrial structure needs to be optimized. It can be seen that there is still a lot of room for development in China's industrialization, especially under the impetus of the new generation of information technology, the deep integration of informatization and industrialization will greatly improve the industrialization level and production efficiency of China, thus promoting sustained and rapid economic growth.
Urbanization has accelerated. In 20 12, China's urbanization rate was 52.57%, which was still far behind the level of 70% in developed countries. Moreover, 52.57% of the urbanization level also includes more than 200 million migrant workers who have not really become urban residents. According to international experience, the level of urbanization is between 30% and 70%, which is a period of accelerated urbanization. Therefore, in the next 20 years, the urbanization of China will continue to develop rapidly, thus stimulating the rapid growth of investment demand and consumption demand. From the perspective of investment demand, with the improvement of urbanization rate, urban infrastructure investment will continue to expand, and real estate investment and investment in education, medical care, social security and other fields will also expand accordingly. From the perspective of consumer demand, with the transfer of rural surplus labor to cities and towns, plus their families, 300 million to 400 million people will become citizens from farmers, which will obviously expand consumer demand and effectively stimulate economic growth.
Faced with many economic problems, economic transformation and upgrading is imperative. Participants believe that China's economic development has both great potential and severe challenges, especially the following outstanding problems. To solve these problems, we must speed up economic transformation and upgrading, and superimpose the dividends of reform, the potential of domestic demand and the vitality of innovation to form a new impetus. The negative effect of government intervention replacing market mechanism appears. As a catch-up economy, China's economy has played a role in mobilizing savings and investment and promoting rapid economic growth through government intervention rather than market mechanism in some areas. However, for a long time, the market selection mechanism has been artificially blocked, which has led to the continuous increase of inefficient marginal enterprises, which in turn has lowered the overall return on investment; It also leads to widespread monopoly, especially in the service industry, which makes it difficult for the high correlation and high labor productivity standards of industrial upgrading to play a role, and it is difficult for the market to play a role in promoting economic transformation and upgrading. The land use efficiency of urbanization is not high. In the past 30 years, urbanization in China has been promoted rapidly, but the occupied land resources have grown too fast. From the international comparison, the land use efficiency is low and the waste is serious in the process of urbanization in China. Cities have invested a lot in infrastructure construction, but have not produced corresponding GDP, and the quality of urbanization and economic development benefits are not high.
The consumption system needs to be improved. The investment rate in China is increasing, while the consumption rate is decreasing. An important reason is that the consumption system is not perfect. Consumption system is the general name of various consumption relations in the field of consumption, including consumption rights, consumption organization, consumption education, consumption credit, consumption information, consumption safety, consumption operation mechanism and control means. Its core issue is consumer rights and interests. Imperfect consumption system restricts residents' consumption, distorts the relationship between income, savings and consumption, makes it difficult to expand domestic demand, and is not conducive to the transformation of economic development mode.
The micro-foundation of economic transformation is still not perfect. This is mainly reflected in two aspects: first, due to the imbalance of regional development, economically underdeveloped areas still have the advantages of factor endowment in land and labor, and it is still profitable for enterprises to expand reproduction by increasing factor input, and there is still room for extensive growth; Second, due to the imperfect market system, local governments have taken on quite a lot of economic functions instead of enterprises, while local governments, under the encouragement of achievement targets, have the power and conditions to promote extensive economic expansion, and their investment impulse is stronger than that of enterprises.
The advantage space of latecomers has narrowed. In order to implement re-industrialization and strictly control high-tech exports in developed countries, the space for China to give full play to its advantages as a latecomer by introducing high-end technologies tends to shrink, and it is more difficult for China's industries to upgrade to the high end of the value chain. In particular, some high-end manufacturing enterprises return to developed countries, which makes the road of industrial upgrading in China more difficult.
In addition, the rising labor cost and the strengthening of resource and environment constraints not only pose a great challenge to the development of China's existing manufacturing industry, but also restrict the transfer of high-end manufacturing links from developed countries to China. In recent years, the industrial development of some developed coastal areas has been in a state of "high before and low after", which reflects this change and the urgent need for China's economy to transform and upgrade in order to gain new competitive advantages.