This kind of influence may be deep, which was not available in the scientific and technological innovation board at that time. The specific reason can be deduced from the following logic.
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Behind the North Exchange is the greater market depth covered by enterprises. Science and technology innovation board is the rapid capitalization of high-tech enterprises in China, while the North Exchange is the main battlefield of the whole small and medium-sized enterprises and specialized and newly-growing enterprises, and it is an enterprise group of two orders of magnitude.
The biggest policy change of the North Exchange is to reduce the threshold of China securitization from 654.38+0 billion to 200 million, which means that the depth of the market has been instantly enlarged by several orders of magnitude.
If calculated according to the business scale corresponding to the net profit of 20 million, at least 2,000 enterprises in the New Third Board will meet the standards in the next three years, and at least 1000 enterprises according to the threshold of 40 million, which means that the New Third Board will have an independent capital ecology and trading ecology.
For example, in Public Offering of Fund, there are independent New Third Board researchers and fund managers, market makers, brokerage business departments, opinion leaders, small circles of professional investors, opinion leaders of retail investors, and professional New Third Board service agencies, and there may be nearly 10,000 employees here.
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What does the securitization threshold of 200 million market value mean?
This covers the China venture capital market after the B round, the China provincial regional equity center market, and Sun Company, a subsidiary of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises.
In other words, the radiation range of the New Third Board+North Exchange is at least 20,000-30,000 enterprises, which means that the depth of enterprise-level intermediary services and investment banking services has been rapidly expanded, and even this is the main way to solve the problem of domestic private primary market investment in the barrier lake. It is conservatively estimated that it is trapped by 80,000 yuan.
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In the short term, the North Exchange has more funds than stocks; In the medium term, there are more stocks than funds, and in the long term, funds are in the first place.
The North Exchange estimates that there are about 2-300 1 year; However, there are currently 7 million households that meet the requirements for opening an account, and 6,543,800+3,000 households have already opened an account.
However, there will be restrictions on the reduction of holdings in the initial stage of Beijing Jiaotong University, which means that the short-term liquidity is worry-free, but it will not last long. For example, in 2022 or 2023, there will be more and more listed companies, so the liquidity will be more and more concentrated in the head enterprises.
The North Exchange will be "stratified" again, which will be spontaneously generated by the market. Just like the current A-share market, 3 billion and 30 billion are two capital markets.
It seems that it will be easier to go public in the future, but the actual situation is that the threshold of liquidity has increased, and only the head market will have excess capital dividends in the future.
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This means that for intermediary service agencies, seizing the head customers is the "Shangganling" campaign, which has great strategic significance.
For enterprises, whether they can get their own capital excess dividend is the key to industrial competition, but in fact, who will master the "pricing power" is the problem.
Is the market value pricing power of enterprises in the hands of investment institutions or in their own hands? This is the core proposition of capital management of listed companies, and this challenge is very great for listed companies. This problem is not limited to the North Exchange, and all A-share companies are the same.
Essentially, it is a process in which an enterprise builds its own capital capacity.
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The new third board investment banking business of brokers is undergoing profound changes, but most brokers have not acted.
A typical feature is that the prospectus materials of the North Stock Exchange have actually been simplified, which seems to be less difficult, but in fact the main contradiction is shifting.
The core value of investment banks is rapidly changing from how to obtain approval materials in compliance to how to make customers valuable. But for investment banks, this problem cannot be solved. This is the division of labor within the investment bank. After the investment bank's sponsorship is approved and the capital market department's issuance is completed, it will inevitably determine the outcome of each management. After the enterprise value is listed, it can only be managed by the boss, but not by the secretary.
However, the organizational division of North Exchange business within securities companies is closed-loop. Underwriting and contracting are in the third board sector, and even have the ability of independent research and mergers and acquisitions. Some brokers' three boards are equivalent to a small brokerage. For such brokers, the current environment is actually a great opportunity, but it is a great challenge to their business ability.
I also talked about this issue when I was doing internal training with the third board departments of several domestic brokers. Either you have knowledge but no ability, or you don't know and don't act.
Under the background of registration system, the core value of investment banks is changing from fragmented sponsorship ability to the ability to complete "enterprise value" pricing power.
In essence, this is a new investment banking capability.
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The lowering of the threshold of securitization means that the "external resources" of enterprises are being re-priced, and the market value is one of the largest strategic resources of enterprises, which will lead to whoever has a larger strategic pattern can incite more resources.
The firm pricing of this resource potential means that the capital mobilization ability and resource integration ability of enterprises are being reconstructed. In the process of stimulating this potential, enterprises need a new strategic pattern to win new capital support, which means that the consulting needs of enterprises will be amplified, especially in strategic upgrading, performance growth, marketing positioning, digital transformation and even market value management.
They are not short of money, but they may lack ability, system, system and talents.
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For investors, it is both an opportunity and a challenge.
The North Stock Exchange will bring more targets, but the New Third Board is defined as the on-market market, which may lead to many investment terms not being applicable in the primary market. In the past, the liquidity of the New Third Board was not good and the investment institutions were strong. In order to obtain financing, it is necessary to withdraw from the market, some of which are real shares or periodic repurchases. After this negotiation environment is reversed, it will in turn force investment institutions to have stronger investment and research capabilities, return to the essence of investment, and make transactions more standardized.
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There are still many innovative business opportunities worth looking forward to in Beijing Stock Exchange.
For example, small and medium-sized enterprises can repay their debts, pledge on the spot (that is, the secondary pricing ability of financial assets), and high-yield bonds of small and medium-sized enterprises. We studied Nasdaq before, and the first thing many SMEs do when they go public is not financing. Most of them are actually issuing convertible bonds, which is a foreign trend and will be the trend after the domestic registration system matures.
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At present, the overall financing policy orientation has a very clear directional significance.
Encourage financing to support financing, but it is not easy to reduce holdings. As far as the current liquidity structure is concerned, it means that if you want to reduce your stock speculation, or want to cash out in large quantities and cut leeks, the regulatory environment will be higher.
This means that in order to maintain the ability to cash out, we must constantly make the enterprise bigger, and liquidity = growth. If you want to simply cut leeks and harvest liquidity, you will be abandoned by the market in an instant.
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Local parks and local governments will also be important participants in the North Exchange.
These not only hold a large number of enterprises, but also hold a large amount of funds. They can even be combined with local investment promotion policies. They can also incubate local enterprises to go to the Beijing Stock Exchange, link local equity transfer centers, and even push the government to guide the fund to upgrade its income model, and even create a new investment fund model.
It is very valuable to have the support of local government resources.
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For listed companies, the North Exchange also has a relationship.
Innovative incubation business, in vitro incubation business, Sun's subsidiaries can be put on the North Stock Exchange for refinancing or spin-off. Once the subsidiary has independent liquidity, it means new ways to exert organizational vitality, wealth creation mechanism, growth model and financing channels.
For listed companies, the essence is a problem, how to use external resources to complete their own innovative business growth.
The New Third Board will still be an M&A target pool, an M&A target pool and a common M&A target pool.
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The financial advisory business will also be layered.
We will soon see that all kinds of financial services are in full swing in the market of the North Stock Exchange. However, the essence of FA business is that one end is bound with the resources of core institutional investors, or the other end has the ability to lock in high-quality head customers. There must be one of the two. In financing business, at present, IPO brokers underwrite underwriting business (there will definitely be a joint underwriting model in the future), so market-oriented financial consultants are not enough.
Refinancing is the main battlefield of market-oriented institutions. The core business is the head customer, and the single financing is more than several hundred million RMB (several billion market value), which is basically the customer that the mainstream FA of the New Third Board is vying for, and customers are not short of money.
The second level is a project with a single financing of tens of millions to hundreds of millions (the market value is about 654.38+0 billion), and the competition is fierce; But this business is still profitable and has high-quality customers;
Thirdly, the first level is financing from 1 million to 10 million (with a market value of several hundred million), so it may not make much money basically, and even the completion rate may not be high.
Speaking of it, everyone is doing FA business, but the participants, business processes, investment targets and charging models may be different, and only the word "financial advisor" may be the same.
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Mergers and acquisitions, it seems that there will be new opportunities, in fact, it is very difficult to do. The lowering of the threshold of securitization means that the staged "capital value" of small companies has appeared again.
First, some companies originally wanted to sell to listed companies, and suddenly found themselves securitized, so they had a wave in their hearts and went to the North Stock Exchange, which would lead to short-term A-share mergers and acquisitions, but it was not very good;
Second, small businesses seem to have a way out again. A company with a market value of 3 billion is unlikely to acquire a company with a profit of 5 million; However, it seems very meaningful for a company with a profit of 30 million to acquire a company with a profit of 5 million.
Although it is not so reliable, it can't stop others from expecting themselves. Someone will pay for it. What if?
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For core talents, Beijing Stock Exchange is an opportunity for common prosperity. Did you get the equity incentive? Is there any opportunity for your company to be capitalized?
If we don't catch up with the GEM and science and technology innovation board's securitization, whether we can seize the opportunity to "securitize" ourselves in the next three years is a major career development issue.
This opportunity is also an opportunity that I have repeatedly talked about in the master strategy class for two years-core talents, and quickly "capitalization of professional ability".
The North Exchange will also bring a group of people worth over 100 million yuan. In some communities, house prices may rise slightly, and the intermediary at the entrance of the community may have a good business for several months.
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Other fragmented businesses may not be long-term, but there are opportunities in the short term. Including: media, training, roadshows, forums, apps, bookcases, helping with PPT, applying for subsidies, and even financial advisors in WeChat group are like leaflets.
I really don't look down on these small products. Once they are standardized, once they can be enlarged, a humble dot can make a boutique team.
Under the background of the North Exchange, the core is a big principle: this market, intellectual services and intermediary services are layered. Each layer has its own needs, rationality of existence and corresponding opportunities.
The head enterprise needs deep customization, and the resources and energy of the head enterprise of the North Stock Exchange are no less than that of an A-share listed company.
Waist enterprises are seeking strategic upgrading, and may have completed the growth counterattack.
Although the long-tail enterprise may be small, it is of great order of magnitude. Maybe a standardized industry is also a big world.
20 17, in a forum of the new third board, I said a word: "We are deeply optimistic about the opportunities of the new third board registration system in the next few years. We will adopt the mode of "long-term, large proportion, heavy participation and independent control" to carry out a saturation attack on the current disastrous New Third Board consulting investment bank market, firmly seize the opportunities of growth enterprises, and make it bigger, hoard scale and accumulate food and grass in the next three years.
Now, this opportunity has finally come!
Hejun must have the opportunity to become one of the main service organizations in the field of North Exchange.
The next three years of Beijing Stock Exchange are worth looking forward to by all of us.