It is completely different from the pessimistic expectation of the current market for the large refining and chemical project itself and the terminal demand. We believe that the historic structural profit leap of the domestic private refining and chemical sector is coming soon, and the expectation difference is huge!
There is a huge difference in the expectation of the core incremental profit source: We believe that the profits of large-scale refining and chemical enterprises will be mainly reflected through the main business PX-PTA- polyester of related leading enterprises, and the profit structure of the main business "PTA-PX" will be enlarged to the main form of 20 19-2020, which will be essentially different from the traditional large-scale refining and chemical projects that reflect the main profit growth through refined oil and other chemicals.
The expected difference in demand is huge: our judgment of demand is very different from that of the market. Our empirical deduction based on objective data shows that the downstream demand growth rate of polyester filament in 20 19 years will not be lower than the lowest level of 6.7% in recent five years, and the downstream demand growth rate is even less likely to have the negative growth expected by the market since the data were available in 2002.
There is no expectation for the profit transfer of PX pricing premium (beyond supply and demand pricing): the large-scale commissioning of PX plant in China's large private refining and chemical company will make PX return to the strong competitive nature of bulk raw materials from the current highly monopolized pricing in Japan and South Korea, and its price will inevitably fall structurally, and the long-standing pricing premium in PX link will no longer exist. We judge that the price reduction of PX from 2019 to 2020 is about 200-400 USD/year. At the same time, the leading enterprises in PTA and polyester downstream of PX have stood out in the past strong competitive environment in recent years, and their bargaining power has been enhanced, which will make a structural leap in the total profit of PTA and polyester links at the end of large refining and chemical products, especially PTA leading enterprises will have more full autonomy to arrange PTA production according to the principle of profit maximization.
1. 1 The profit probability of the private large refining and chemical sector will exceed market expectations, with strong certainty.
1. 1. 1 The core profit source of large private refining and chemical enterprises is completely different from that of three barrels of oil.
The profit core of private large refining and chemical sector comes from its crude oil -PX-PTA- polyester industrial chain, and the profits are mainly reflected in naphtha -PX, PX-PTA and PTA-PET.
Private large-scale refining and chemical companies have expanded the profit structure of their main business PTA-PX into the main form that will continue from the second half of 20 19 to 2020, which eventually leads to the structural transformation of PTA-PX- polyester from the traditional "strong cycle and weak profit" to "weak cycle and strong profit", and the result of this transformation is highly irreversible. This profit model is completely different from that of Sanbarrel Refinery. The market is used to comparing large-scale refining projects with three barrels of oil with private large-scale refining projects to evaluate the future profitability under similar refining scale, which has fundamental logical defects and forms a huge expected difference!
There are huge expected differences in the profitability of large private refining and chemical companies, mainly in the following three aspects:
1. There is a serious lack of expectation for the commodity pricing power revolution brought about by the large-scale localization of PX devices.
2. Without considering the huge profit transfer caused by the change of PX bargaining power, the profit transfer caused by the loss of pricing power premium and overcapacity is very different from that caused by traditional overcapacity. In addition, the average cost formula of PX unit in the integrated unit of private polyester refining and chemical company mostly adopts PX imported from Japan and South Korea as the cost. After PX is put into production, most of the intermediate costs (tariff, freight, ACP premium, etc. ) will be transferred to profit.
3. At present, two large private refineries are the largest refineries in China. There is obvious scale effect in PX devices of large refining and chemical companies, and its scale far exceeds the current scale of devices in Japan and South Korea. According to the past factory cost-expense ratio, it will be obviously overestimated, but the profit rate of its downstream transfer is underestimated.
4. The market is too worried about PTA capacity growth, and the market blindly counts all planned and constructed capacity as rigid capacity, while the actual rigid capacity is less than the market expectation.
The market is too pessimistic about the demand. It is generally expected that there will be a negative growth in textile and clothing demand, without realizing that the terminal textile and clothing demand is highly positively correlated with GDP. The data of 19 in the past showed that the correlation coefficient was as high as 0.82. As long as GDP can increase by more than 5%, the demand of textile and garment industry chain will remain highly certain.
1. 1.2 The profit structure of the refinery has changed fundamentally.
At present, the market view is that oil prices are falling, and the prices of aromatic hydrocarbons and their downstream products are falling, which weakens profitability. Contrary to the market view, we believe that the market confuses the basic concepts. It is true that the prices of crude oil and its industrial chain are highly correlated with the rise and fall of oil prices (this is qualitative: the prices of products and raw materials change in the same direction most of the time), but the specific rise and fall range of products downstream of crude oil in the process of oil price changes is determined by the actual trading orders of the products themselves (this is quantitative: the changes of products and raw materials in a specific direction are determined by their own trading orders). The raw material end can fall at the same time as the product, but when the price drop of the raw material end is greater than that of the product end, the profit of the product end will expand, not shrink. We judge that the production capacity of PX projects newly put into operation from 2019 to 2020 is expected to reach12.5 million tons/year (three major private refining and chemical projects, Hengli Dalian, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengyi Petrochemical * * account for/kloc-0.0 million tons, and CICC Petrochemical and Quanzhou, China account for more than 2.5 million tons), and the new supply accounts for 2.5 million tons. The new PX capacity brought by the newly-built large-scale refining and chemical industry will inevitably impact the existing PX supply pattern, which will inevitably bring about a round of structural decline in the PX market. The rich profits of naphtha -PX link will be given priority to the downstream PTA plant.
The structural decline of PX price can partly draw lessons from the localization process of PTA plant. During the period of 20 1 1 -20 12, the gross profit of PTA plant decreased greatly after the newly-increased domestic production capacity (12.6 million tons/year) exceeded 50% of the current demand. We expect that the PX link will shift to the downstream PTA from the second half of 20 19 to the whole year of 2020.
There are two core arguments to find out why the profit of 20 19 naphtha -PX link is preferentially allocated to PTA-PX link instead of polyester -PTA link:
1. This industrial restructuring is 20 19-2020, and the PX production capacity has increased substantially, while the PTA production capacity has increased slightly. Most of them are PTA production capacity orderly released by large refining and chemical enterprises with the main purpose of maximizing profits.
2. The concentration of PTA production capacity in China is high, and the bargaining power of private petrochemical leading enterprises is stronger than that of polyester. The profit of PX- naphtha was transferred to PTA-PX, and private leading petrochemical enterprises benefited the most.
Leading enterprises in the large refining and chemical sector have a strong demand for profit maximization, especially for contrarian holdings. We believe that the main tone of leading enterprises in the large refining and chemical sector in the future is to release production capacity in an orderly manner to meet the new demand at home and abroad, rather than leaving it in disorder.
In addition, polyester producers are more dispersed than PTA. At present, the concentration of pre-PTA 10 enterprises is 8 1.6%, the concentration of four leading enterprises is 55%, and the concentration of pre-polyester 10 enterprises is about 4 1%. The bargaining power of PTA leading enterprises is obviously stronger than that of polyester.
1.2. Empirical deduction of detailed demand data: there is no doubt that the demand for polyester terminal textiles and clothing is stable and positive.
We believe that the downstream demand growth rate of polyester filament in the future will not be lower than the lowest level of 6.7% in the last five years, and judging from the data since 2002, the downstream demand growth rate is even less likely to have negative growth. Based on the objective data itself, the empirical derivation process of excluding subjective preference is as follows:
As the downstream of the "crude oil -PX-PTA- polyester-filament" industrial chain, textiles and garments belong to the "clothing-food-housing-travel" in the consumer industry and are one of the essential consumer goods for residents. According to the year-on-year growth rate of textile and garment retail sales and GDP (current price) announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, we find that the growth rate of textile and garment industry is highly positively correlated with GDP growth rate, and the correlation coefficient between them reached 0.82 from 2002 to 20 18. At the same time, we find that although China's GDP growth rate has entered a new normal stage in recent years, the growth rate of textile and garment industry still maintains positive growth when the GDP growth rate is higher than 5%. In recent five years (20 14-20 18), the average year-on-year growth rate of retail sales in textile and garment industry reached 8.8%, with the lowest being 6.7% in the first half of 20 16.
According to the polyester filament operating rate and filament inventory we tracked, the polyester filament operating rate rose rapidly to 77.5% in the last week (March 20 199) after the Spring Festival of 20 1 9. Considering that the annual holiday of the polyester filament factory during the Spring Festival led to a sharp decline in the operating rate of polyester filament during the Spring Festival holiday, we calculated that the average Spring Festival holiday in recent five years began at 36.4 days after New Year's Day, while the spring break holiday of 20 19 began at 34 days after New Year's Day, so the operating rate of 20 19 was highly comparable to the average level in the same period in recent five years. After 20 19 spring festival, the operating rate of polyester filament is obviously higher than the average level of 67% in recent five years.
According to the inventory days of POY, DTY and FDY, the average inventory days of POY 20 1 9 (2019 March1) in the last week were 7.4 days, while the average inventory days in the past five years were 13.4 days. In 20 19 years, the average inventory days of FDY were 1 1.2 days, while in recent five years it was 17. 1 day. The average inventory days of DTY in 20 19 years were 1 1.7 days, with an average of 23.5 days in recent five years. Since 20 19, the stocks of three kinds of polyester filaments are obviously lower than the average level in recent five years.
By comparing the operating rate and inventory days, we find that the operating rate of polyester filament is obviously higher than the average level in the past five years since 20 19, while the inventory level is obviously lower than the average level in the past five years. Therefore, we think that in 20 19, the growth rate of downstream demand, that is, the textile and garment industry, is better than the worst situation in the past five years, and it is highly comparable from an empirical point of view compared with the average level in the past five years.
According to the 20 19 government work report made by the prime minister at the second session of the 13th National People's Congress, the target of China's economic development in 20 19 is a GDP growth of 6-6.5%. We believe that the growth rate of textile and garment industry is highly correlated with GDP growth rate, and the correlation coefficient reaches 0.82. In the past five years, the average year-on-year growth rate of textiles and clothing reached 8.8%, with a minimum of 6.7%. Since 20 19, the operating rate of polyester filament is higher than the average level in recent five years, while the inventory level of POY, FDY and DTY is lower than the average level in recent five years. Objective data show that the growth rate of demand side of 20 19 is obviously better than the lowest level of 6.7% in recent five years. On the premise of stable GDP growth, we believe that the downstream demand growth rate of polyester filament will not be lower than the lowest level of 6.7% in recent five years, and from the data since 2002, it is even less likely that the downstream demand growth rate will have negative growth.
2. 1PX gradually changed from high-profit monopoly pricing in Japan and South Korea to low-profit complete competitive pricing.
There is a mismatch in the production capacity of domestic PX-PTA- polyester sheet. China has overcapacity in PTA and polyester. However, due to domestic people's misunderstanding of PX and public opinion resistance, more than 50% of PX products still need to be imported from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan Province Province and other surrounding areas, forming a PX seller market dominated by Japan and South Korea. Because the domestic PX supply is insufficient, mainly from Sinopec, PX pricing is highly monopolized by Japan and South Korea. At present, the pricing of PX is controlled by Japanese and Korean PX sellers in the form of Asian contract price (ACP), and the spot is mostly concentrated in the hands of a few companies with strong price control. At present, the pricing and settlement mode of PX is 50% ACP pricing +50% spot price.
Private refining and chemical companies, as the main consumers of PX, got rid of the situation of passively accepting the pricing of Japanese and Korean companies after the completion of PX production capacity. In the case of PX self-sufficiency, the private large refining and chemical sector will gradually grasp the bargaining initiative when signing long-term cooperative contracts with Japanese and Korean enterprises, and gradually change the PX contract pricing of Japanese and Korean enterprises from 50% Asian contract price (ACP)+50% average market price +/-(2~4) USD/ton to 100% average market price (self-sufficiency), which also makes the domestic market return to bulk from Japanese and Korean highly monopolized pricing.
After the large-scale private refining and chemical company is put into production, the following parts will be converted from cost to profit:
1. Pricing right premium and tight supply and demand premium, we judge that the PX pricing right premium and tight supply and demand premium brought by monopoly pricing in Japan and South Korea total about 300-450 USD/ton.
2. Japan and South Korea need about $20 freight insurance for importing PX raw materials, and there is also a 2% tariff. If large private refining and chemical companies are self-sufficient, this part of the cost will also be converted into corporate profits.
3.3. Cost reduction due to scale effect. PX device. At present, the average scale of a single set of PX in Japan is 420,000 tons/year, and more than 90% of the devices will be put into production before 20 10. The average scale of a single set of PX in South Korea is 600,000 tons/year, which is equivalent to the scale of domestic state-owned PX devices and relatively new to Japanese PX devices. The newly-built private large-scale refinery has 4 million tons/year PX plant, which has obvious cost reduction in cost and raw material consumption.
2.2PTA from rigid and disorderly production capacity to grab the market to leading enterprises in an orderly manner.
2.2. 1 domestic effective PTA capacity device
The leading PTA plant in China is mainly owned by large private oil refining and chemical enterprises. As a leading enterprise in PTA industry, domestic private large-scale refining and chemical enterprises occupy more than 50% market share, with an average plant scale of 265.438+10,000 tons/year, with obvious scale advantages.
China's existing backward PTA production capacity is concentrated in the hands of other enterprises, with an average scale of 420,000 tons/year, which has obviously lagged behind the market.
In 20 19, the newly-built PTA production capacity supporting its downstream polyester is only 2.2 million tons/year PTA plant of Xinfeng Dushan Petrochemical Company, and it is expected to reach production in the first half of 2020. Considering that the annual consumption growth rate of downstream polyester is not less than 5%, the rigid new capacity of PTA20 19 can be completely digested at the consumption end. In 2020, other PTA production will be mainly concentrated in the hands of large refining and chemical leading enterprises, which have high market awareness and strong profit demands (related leading enterprises continue to increase their holdings). We judge that the PTA production arrangement of large refining and chemical leading enterprises will fully consider the principle of profit maximization.
2.2.2 Domestic PTA has changed from rigid production capacity and market share to orderly production capacity release to maximize profits.
PTA has experienced a golden expansion period of 10 year since 2000. The apparent consumption and production capacity overlap in 201year, which means that the domestic production capacity is self-sufficient in 20 1 1 year. In order to seize market share, PTA plant has been continuously expanded from 20 1 1 to 20 14. However, it can be seen that although the nominal capacity is rising rapidly, the output is rising relatively slowly. In 20 14, Far East Petrochemical, one of the leading PTA enterprises in China, went bankrupt and reorganized, while another leading PTA enterprise, Longteng Aromatics PX Plant, had a major accident and the PTA plant was shut down for a long time. Opened the curtain of PTA plant capacity clearing. In the next three years, PTA plant has been hovering around the break-even point, resulting in a large number of zombie capacity. Some enterprises even just built factories, but considering the cost factor, they have not been put into production.
After 20 17, PTA gradually became profitable due to the improvement of supply and demand, and the scale of leading enterprises was close to that of other non-leading enterprises, so the domestic PTA competition situation was clear. Leading enterprises have changed from disorderly expansion of production capacity to seize market share to orderly release of production capacity to maximize profits. It is mainly reflected in the enhancement of PTA's independent pricing ability, especially its ability to resist the fall of oil prices. However, due to Japan and South Korea's monopoly on PX, PTA price increase is meaningless, because the profits of price increase are basically eaten by Japanese and Korean companies through PX price increase. However, once the PX monopoly in Japan and South Korea can be freed, PTA's independent pricing ability can be fully reflected in profit growth.
2.3PTA-PX is the biggest benefit link of raw material PX overcapacity.
The change of profit structure is based on the change of production capacity structure. 20 19-2020 domestic production increase12.5 million tons/year, breaking the current import and export situation. Mainly affected are South Korea and Japan, the main sources of domestic imported PX.
Compared with Japanese and Korean production capacity, domestic private large-scale refining and chemical production capacity has obvious scale advantages and transportation cost advantages, so the crushing power of PX mainly comes from Japanese and Korean PX production capacity. Except Lotte Chemical and SK, Hanwha Total, Hyundai Cosmao, GSCaltex and S-oil all have no PTA downstream polyester production capacity. JXTG, Japan's largest PX exporter, and Sheng Xing, Chu Guang, are at risk of closing down because their average scale is much smaller than domestic production capacity.
The new PX production capacity makes the supply and demand of PX in Northeast Asia unbalanced. There will be a structural decline in PX prices. Private large-scale refining and chemical enterprises have sufficient independent space to decide the production arrangement of PTA in order to maximize profits. This kind of independent pricing power has never been possessed by leading enterprises in China before Japanese and Korean enterprises.
3. 1PX background introduction
3. 1. 1PX existing equipment
Although the production capacity of paraxylene (PX) is gradually increasing, the self-sufficiency rate of paraxylene (PX) has not been significantly improved. In the past five years, the monthly output has increased from 650,000 tons to 850,000 tons per month, and the self-sufficiency rate has remained at around 43%. In 20 18, the nominal capacity of domestic p-xylene is148,000 tons/year, and the actual output is1100,000 tons/year. Although the self-sufficiency rate of PX in China is less than half, the operating rate is still not high because of the short industrial chain and the high cost of some devices.
The production path of PX is mainly divided into the following parts:
1. Atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit, which separates crude oil into LPG, naphtha, gasoline, kerosene, atmospheric and vacuum wax oil (AGO, VGO) and atmospheric and vacuum residue oil (AR, VR) according to different boiling points of fractions.
2. Reforming unit: reforming the heavy naphtha obtained from atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and hydrocracking gasoline obtained from ethylene unit, so as to aromatize some isoparaffins and improve the aromatic hydrocarbon yield. Reforming is the main source of hydrogen in refineries. There are two types of reforming routes: 1. Fuel route, reforming to obtain high octane number reformed gasoline. 2. Aromatic hydrocarbon route obtains the raw materials of aromatic hydrocarbon combined unit through reforming.
3.PX device PX device includes several sets of devices, including sulfolane extraction, transalkylation device, isomerization and disproportionation device, adsorption separation and purification device, etc. And produce PX, benzene and heavy aromatics (C 10+).
3. Technical overview and technical shortcomings of1.2px.
The mixed aromatic hydrocarbons obtained from atmospheric and vacuum distillation-pre-hydrogenation-reforming of petroleum and hydrogenation of cracked gasoline in ethylene plant were prepared by aromatic hydrocarbon combined plant. The aromatics complex mainly includes the following technologies:
1. Aromatic hydrocarbon extraction-The principle is similar miscibility, usually sulfolane extraction, but it also includes N- methylmorpholine (NFM) or N- methylpyrrolidone (NMP). This technology has been mastered by many patentees of UOP/AXENS/GTC/ Mobil/Sinopec.
2. Disproportionation and transalkylation methods-UOP Toray/IFPaxenTransplus/GTC
3. Adsorption separation: The typical process of adsorption separation is UOPParex/IFPAxensEluxyl (there is no technology in China).
4. Isomerization of ethylbenzene/xylene: UOPIsomar/AxensOparis/ Mobil/Sinopec Institute of Technology, etc.
5. GTC technology of toluene methanol alkylation (not widely used at present)
For large-scale refining and chemical plants, if the aromatic hydrocarbon route is adopted, the combined unit of reforming and aromatic hydrocarbon is usually used to produce aromatic hydrocarbons, and its patentees include a series of patentees such as UOP, AXENS, GTC and Mobil (EM).
UOP's aromatics complex consists of CCRplatforming(CCR platinum reforming), sulfolane (sulfolane extraction), Tatoray (disproportionation), Parex (adsorption separation) and Isomar (isomerization);
Axens' aromatics complex consists of aromatization (reforming), Morphylane (extraction), Transplus (disproportionation), Oparis (isomerization) and Eluxyl (adsorption separation) processes.
Domestic continuous countercurrent reforming technology was broken through by the newly-built reforming unit of China Petrochemical Company in Jinan on 20 13+00, and then was used for the expansion of aromatics plant of Hainan Refining and Chemical Company on 20 13. As an important part of domestic aromatic hydrocarbon technology, this technology won the 20 15 national special prize for scientific and technological progress. This technology breaks the monopoly of foreign continuous reforming technology and provides technical options for subsequent large-scale continuous reforming units. Of course, the status of overseas core technologies such as UOPCCRplatforming cannot be shaken, but it should be noted that breaking the monopoly is a key step to reduce the patent licensing fees of overseas companies and the disclosure of overseas technologies to domestic data.
At present, the domestic technical shortcomings are adsorption separation moving beds, which have not been successfully applied. Most of the existing domestic devices adopt the Parex process of Honeywell UOP. Because of its unique rotary valve, the maintenance cycle is long and the operation is relatively stable. Use a small amount of Eluxyl process of French oil company Axens. The process adopts 140 program-controlled valve (on-off valve), and the maintenance cycle is relatively short because of the certain failure probability of frequent operation of the program-controlled valve. Although it is possible to produce adsorbents for adsorption and separation in China, there are bottlenecks in the field of equipment manufacturing.
3. 1.3 times the current pricing method
At this stage, the price indicators of PX are mainly divided into three categories:
1, international closing price (divided into CFR China, FOB Korea and FOB US Gulf).
2. Domestic Sinopec settlement/listing price and domestic PX SPCP price.
3. Asian contract price negotiation price
Among them, the most commonly used price indicator in Asia is ACP price, which is called "6+7" pricing model in the industry, that is, six PX suppliers, namely, Japan Petroleum (Japan JX), Japan Nissan, ExxonMobil, South Korea S-oil, South Korea SK and India Trust (joined in April 20 17), give advocacy prices. Seven PTA manufacturers, Mitsui Chemical, Mitsubishi Chemical, BP, China-US Alliance (CAPCO), Yadong Petrochemical (OPC), Yisheng and Hong Sheng, offer counter-offer prices, and the last working day of each month is the final deadline of negotiation time. As long as two or more PX suppliers (including two) reach an agreement with two or more PTA producers (including two), this price will be regarded as the ACP price of PX next month.
Due to the shortage of PX in China before, there was no PX spot market in China, and the trading volume was scarce. PX manufacturers usually supply directly to downstream PTA factories in the form of contract goods, and the contract formula of most domestic PX factories is generally 50% daily average price +50%ACP pricing.
3. 1.4 Maintenance of Asian PX
From March to April of 20 19, the PX plant in Asia ushered in a large-scale overhaul, with a shutdown and overhaul capacity of about 4 million tons/year. Considering that the maintenance period is usually 1 month to 2 months, the PX market will maintain a tight supply situation from March to April in 20 19.
3. 1.5 mixed xylene (MX) has a substitution effect on gasoline.
Domestic reformed gasoline has the characteristics of high octane number, and RON is about 100~ 105, which is a high-quality gasoline blending oil. When the price of mixed xylene is lower than that of gasoline, there is price support, because mixed aromatic hydrocarbons (which need benzene content) can be mixed into gasoline without additional cost. There are also many reforming gasoline units in China to improve the quality of blended oil. From the process point of view, there is little difference in the reforming reaction with aromatic hydrocarbons and gasoline as the target products. Only by adjusting the catalyst and operating temperature can high quality reformed gasoline be obtained. The future trend of domestic gasoline standards is to reduce the content of unsaturated hydrocarbons, mainly aromatic hydrocarbons and olefins, in order to reduce the environmental pollution caused by incomplete combustion of unsaturated hydrocarbons in gasoline.
Generally, the RON of mixed xylene is 100- 105. There are two kinds of mixed xylene in China, the first is solvent grade, and the second is isomerization grade. Solvent grade contains more ethylbenzene and isomeric grade contains more trimethylbenzene, which is more conducive to disproportionation and transalkylation units.
At present, the mandatory national standard GB19147-2016 for gasoline has the following requirements for aromatics and olefins. Its China VI A standard will be implemented in June 20 19, and the national VI B standard will be implemented in June 2023.
3.2PTA background introduction
existing equipment
Domestic PTA plants are basically self-sufficient in 20 1 1 year, and then the rapid expansion of production capacity leads to overcapacity. From 20 14 to 20 15, a lot of production capacity stopped and became zombie production capacity, and the operating rate was reduced to about 50% all the way. However, the operating rate has gradually increased in the past three years, and the current operating rate is 80%. The upstream of PTA plant is limited by PX production capacity and import situation, and the downstream is affected by the start-up of polyester plant, so the relationship between supply and demand is complicated. Many potential domestic production capacity has been discontinued for many years, and it takes a long time to plan, inject funds, maintain equipment and train personnel to resume production. Most of the production capacity that cannot be started in five years has become zombie production capacity. According to the data of CCFEI and Wind, the operating rate has never exceeded 90% in the five years since 20 13. According to CCFEI statistics, since 20 19, the nominal capacity of PTA has been 51320,000 tons, and the effective capacity has been adjusted to 451700,000 tons, accounting for 88% of the nominal capacity.
3.2.2PTA Overview of PTA mainstream technology
PTA plant in China mainly adopts two process routes: medium temperature oxidation and low temperature oxidation. The original high-temperature oxidation has been gradually withdrawn and turned into medium-temperature oxidation.
The representative processes of medium temperature oxidation include BP-Amoco process, INVISTA process and three-well oil coating process. Over the years, by reducing the reaction temperature, the volatilization of PX and acetic acid solvent has been greatly reduced, and the product is refined PTA.
The representative processes of low temperature oxidation are Hysmans and Lurgi processes. Because there is no refining unit in this process, the product is medium purity PTA(EPTA).
The most authoritative technology in the world is the intermediate temperature oxidation process of BPAmoco, followed by the intermediate temperature oxidation process of Invista.
At present, BP or INVISTAP8 are mostly used in new domestic production capacity. Through the analysis of Hengli PTA-4/5P8 process and Tongkun Jiaxing Petrochemical 1 P7 process, PTA consumption per ton decreased from 0.656 to 0.65 tons, and acetic acid decreased from 35kg to 29kg. The new process has obvious advantages in raw materials and energy consumption.
Maintenance and inventory of PTA plant
PTA plant ushered in a small maintenance peak at the end of March, and Yisheng Ningbo 4# Hengli 3# Tongkun 2# and South China No.1 Factory 3# all had two-week maintenance.
The inventory quantity of PTA circulation links has increased seasonally, but the inventory quantity is still at a historical low. Usually, PTA will be out of stock after polyester enterprises return to work during the Spring Festival, so there is little pressure on PTA inventory at present.
3.3 Present Situation of Polyester Industry
The main downstream types of PTA are ethylene terephthalate PET, propylene terephthalate PTT, butylene terephthalate PBT and dioctyl terephthalate DOTP. When we talk about polyester, we often refer to PET, which accounts for more than 95% of PTA downstream. Therefore, the study of PET can reflect the demand of PTA in polyester industry.
At present, the main downstream of PET in China are polyester filament, polyester staple fiber and polyester bottle chip.
Polyester filaments are mainly divided into POY, FDY and DTY, and there are mainly civil filaments and industrial filaments according to their uses.
The downstream of polyester staple fiber is mainly pure polyester yarn, polyester cotton yarn and polyester viscose yarn, and the downstream of bottle chip is mainly bottle packaging of beverage and alcohol products.
The concentration of leading enterprises is also inconsistent in specific sub-sectors.
1. Tongkun Group, Xinfengming, Hong Sheng Group and Hengyi Petrochemical occupy the leading position in the field of civil filament, and the output of the first four companies accounts for about 38%. Tongkun Group, with the largest production capacity, has a polyester filament production capacity of 5.5 million tons/year, and the main downstream of civilian filaments is the textile and garment industry.
2. Leading enterprises in the field of industrial silk include Shipbuilding Road, Fu You, Hailide and Hengli Group. The output of the top four companies accounts for about 64% of the whole market. And with the expansion of Hengli Kang Hui Petrochemical Company, CR4 will further increase from 2019 to 2020.
3. The downstream of polyester bottle chips is the beverage and alcoholic beverage packaging industry. China Resources, Wan Kai, Hengyi and Sanfangxiang are the top four manufacturers in the field of bottle tablets. Among them, the top four production capacity accounts for more than 50% of the market production capacity.
4. The downstream of polyester film is mainly electronic industry. Eurasia Film, Double Star New Materials and Hengli Co., Ltd. occupy the leading position in China, among which Eurasia Film 20 15 went bankrupt and reorganized. Overseas manufacturers such as DuPont occupy a leading position in the high-end field, importing more than 300,000 tons every year.
5. Five minutes later. In PBT field, Changchun Chemical and Hengli Group have the largest domestic production capacity. The downstream is mainly electronic appliances, including automobile machinery and electric light source industry.