What I have done in the blockchain industry can be summarized as two points: the first is popular science. "What is Bitcoin?" is a long popular science article written by Jiang in Zhihu, which is the most popular popular science article in Chinese community, with nearly 6 million views. This is a must-read article for many people to get started with blockchain, and even many blockchain companies use it as training materials for new employees.
Besides popular science, another label of ginger is miners, and mining is the biggest industry of ginger. Lai Bitcoin mine pool founded by Jiang is one of the earliest bitcoin mines in the world, and all this originated from two graphics card mining machines at the end of 20 13. After a bull market of 20 13 and a long bear market of 20 14-20 15, Jiang has been firmly optimistic about bitcoin for a long time, and converted all profits into bitcoin by digging counterfeit money and then converting it into bitcoin. 20 15, 10 June, first, in the long and boring bear market, Jiang spent a month writing a 60,000-word famous popular science "What is Bitcoin?" on Zhihu, predicting that a bull market was coming with the increasing number of active addresses of Bitcoin. The second is the dispute over the expansion of bitcoin, which spread from bitcoin developers to the whole community to participate in the debate, making Jiang realize that "you must have bitcoin computing power to protect your own bitcoin." So, at the beginning of 20 16, Jiang established his own bitcoin mine pool-BTC.top.2065438+07 at the end of the bull market. TOP once became the most powerful mine pool in the whole network. During the "94" period of 20 17 and the mine disaster at the end of 20 18, many mines stopped production, and mining machines were sold by the catty, and panic spread throughout the mining industry. Surprisingly, at this point in time, Jiang bought a large number of mining machines and sold them cheaply in the market. Jiang also has the nickname of "black hole of mining machine" in the industry, because he has never bought a large number of mining machines, but he has never even sold one. Jiang's logic is: "I am optimistic about Bitcoin for a long time. If I buy a mining machine, I will honestly dig it out and scrap it. I will eat the long-term excess return from fish head to fish tail, and there is no need to do short-term toss. " Every time bitcoin continues to rise beyond market expectations for a long time, it also makes people who hold mining machines earn a lot of money, which makes people who play short-term bands regret it.
Unlike many people who have just entered the coin circle, many people who have just entered the coin circle buy coins, while Jiang's practice is to buy and mine. Why did Jiang choose the road of mining? We analyze that mining has many advantages over speculation for long-term value investment.
1. In terms of cost, mining is a cheaper and more stable way to obtain bitcoin. There are two ways to obtain bitcoin, buying and mining from the secondary market. Bitcoin purchased through the secondary market is usually called speculative currency and has a market sentiment premium. This premium may be a positive premium or a negative premium. Recently, the price of money has fallen like a waterfall because it contains a negative premium of market sentiment.
With the data of mining machine cost, electricity fee, other fixed operating expenses, and the computing power of the whole network, the cost of mining bitcoin can be roughly calculated. In the early stage of industry development, many miners with faith gained huge wealth accumulation.
With the rapid development of the industry, the difficulty of mining and the computing power of the whole network have been significantly improved, and the price of mining institutions has become higher and higher. The cost advantage of mining for bitcoin is gradually decreasing or even disappearing. But at the same time, it also promotes the specialization and centralization of the industry, and large-scale mines and pools gradually appear, which greatly reduces the marginal cost of mining, and mining is still profitable under good market conditions.
2. Mining is a good means of risk hedging. The blockchain industry has ups and downs, and the market conditions these days are a good proof. The currency price fluctuates greatly, and it is difficult for most people to face the skyrocketing market. In the development of Bitcoin, 75% or even 90% of the extreme prices have been staged many times. Panic caused by extreme prices has led many people to sell coins and clear their positions. The change of mentality caused these people to lose the opportunity to get on the bus. When the currency price fluctuates close to 30%, any short-term operation, especially leveraged trading, is extremely risky. Mining for the continuous production of coins has become a risk hedging means to reduce the average cost of obtaining coins.
3. The profit model is clear, and mining is favored by a large number of traditional capitals. For investors in traditional industries, although the sharp fluctuation range of Bitcoin can bring a lot of profits from speculative trading, the risk is unbearable for ordinary people. At the same time, many traditional capitals do not understand the value of Bitcoin, so they are unwilling to rush into speculation. The economic model of mining is relatively easier to understand. The scale of the mine will give people a spectacular and practical feeling: the huge roar of the mining machine and the endless workshop will give people an impact on large-scale industrial production. The payback period of mining is basically about one year, and the payback period and profit rate can be predicted quantitatively. By mining, it is easier to get money, so it is safer to add leverage. So a good way to buy money without money is to lend money to the mine! Therefore, mining is essentially a financial behavior.
4. Mining can build a commercial system with currency as the core. The huge fluctuation of currency price and the history of periodic changes in the past have made the old users in the circle have the idea of escaping from the top and hunting for the bottom. But history is always strikingly similar, but it is not a simple repetition. If you follow the previous "data law" to copy the bottom and escape from the top, you may make a wrong operation because the currency price is not executed according to the preset script. Once you get off at the wrong stop, your mentality is likely to collapse and it is difficult to get on the bus again. Mining has a daily cash flow based on currency, which can keep you in the car all the time. From this perspective, mining can avoid the risk of getting off.
Of course, mining is not the only choice or the only way to enter the currency circle.
Jiang can get thousands of times of income in just a few years, the direct reason is that he has successfully escaped from the top and bottomed out many times. Jiang has his own methodology to judge the general trend and dares to bet on his own judgment. His method doesn't apply to everyone. Just because it worked in the past doesn't mean it will work in the future. Everyone needs to think independently. Judging from the latest market of 20 17, Jiang successfully escaped from the top at the end of 20 17, and also successfully predicted that the bottom of Bitcoin wave was around $3,000. So how did he do it? This is related to his three bubble indices.
Let's say that the first bubble index is the "user bubble index", which is calculated by dividing the "total market value" by the square of the number of active addresses of Bitcoin. The underlying logic of this indicator is Metcalfe's law, that is, the value of the network is directly proportional to the square of the number of connected users.
In this model, if the price of money keeps rising, but the number of users has not kept up for a long time, according to Metcalfe's law, such network value is not supported by actual users, and a bubble appears. Blue is the total market value of Bitcoin, and the unit is 1000 billion; The orange line is the active address of Bitcoin, and the unit is 654.38+ million. The bubble index is the total market value divided by the square root of the active address.
The second bubble index is the "Increase Bubble Index", which is calculated by calculating the cumulative increase of Bitcoin for 60 days and adding up the daily increase of the last 60 days (instead of dividing the price of the 60th day by the price of the first day). The increase on the first day and the increase on the second day add up to +60 days. The greater the amplitude, the closer to the top. The logic of this indicator is: the bear market is created by the bull market, and the rise of currency prices needs continuous newcomers and new funds to support it. New funds will generally flow in steadily with the spread of news and the rich effect in the bull market. However, if the market is fanatical to a certain extent, the users in the stock market use up all the funds, or even join the leveraged investment substantially, then the price will rise sharply in the short term, and the speed will exceed the admission speed of new funds. The new capital can't support the high price, and the currency price will eventually collapse at a high level with great potential energy, ending the bull market and opening the bear market.
From the figure, we can see that before the bull market of 20 1 1 and 20 13 ended, the increase in 60 days reached 300%~200%. Before the end of 20 17, there was also a peak of 60 days 120%.
The third foam index is "mining machine foam index", which is calculated by the number of days of static recovery of mining machine (mining machine price divided by daily net income). If the return days of most mainstream mining machines drop sharply, it is the peak signal. The logic of this indicator is that if the speed of industrial mining machines can't keep up with the speed of currency price increase, then the currency price increase is too fast and unsustainable.
As can be seen from the above figure, in the bull market of 20 16~20 17, the static return period of S9 is stable at 200~250 days, and the daily profit is stable in 5 yuan. However, in February of 20 17, 17, and S9, the return period quickly dropped to about 100 days, and the daily profit soared from 5 yuan to 20 yuan, which was an obvious mining machine bubble index.
It should be noted that these three bubble indexes need to be comprehensively referenced and judged in combination with market sentiment. Even if they are comprehensively referenced, it is still difficult to escape from the top accurately. The most important significance of these indicators is to let us know where we are in the big cycle.