It is estimated that from 20 15 to 2020, the scale of vocational education will increase from143 billion yuan to 176 10 billion yuan, and the CAGR will be 4.2%, while the scale of vocational non-academic education will increase from 3 106 billion yuan to 90.6 billion yuan. The above is a complete analysis of the prospect and present situation of vocational education.
The rapid growth of vocational education depends on the dual promotion of supply and demand. On the supply side, the government strongly supports the development of vocational education at the policy and financial levels. On April 20 10, the State Council issued the Outline of the National Medium-and Long-Term Education Reform and Development Plan (20 10-2020), proposing to vigorously develop vocational education, encouraging the reform of vocational education school-running mode, and emphasizing the principles of overall planning by the government, school-enterprise cooperation and collectivization, which laid the overall tone for the subsequent introduction of vocational education policies.
Through the analysis of the prospect and present situation of vocational education, since the release of the Outline of 20 10, the government has continuously increased education expenditure, and the scale of investment in vocational education has also increased rapidly. From 20 10 to 20 15, the national public expenditure on higher vocational education increased from 3165438+92 million yuan to 79.295 billion yuan, an increase of 154% and a cagr of 20.5%, while the public expenditure on the whole education field in the same period,
From the demand side, there are two factors that constitute the basic driving force for the development of vocational education. First of all, the increasing employment pressure has given birth to the demand for vocational education. Judging from the job market, the number of college graduates has been increasing in recent years. From 20 10 to 20 14, the number of graduates increased from 63 10 to 7.49 million, with a cagr of 3.5%, and the employed population expanded year by year. However, the current economic growth has slowed down, the demand for employment in some industries has declined, and structural adjustment has not yet produced new employment growth points, which has led to increased employment pressure for fresh graduates. Fierce employment competition can promote academic qualifications, vocational education and vocational training.
Through the analysis of the prospect and present situation of vocational education, the demand for technical secondary school graduates in the job market has been fluctuating at 65,438+05% of the total demand since 2065,438+02, and it showed an upward trend in the third quarter of 2065,438+06, and the market demand for technical secondary school talents increased. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, since 20 10, the number of students enrolled in secondary schools has shown an obvious downward trend. After 3-4 years' academic delay, the number of graduates with technical secondary education will also decrease in the five years after 20 13, and the decrease in talent supply will aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand of talents with technical secondary education in the talent market.
The number of vocational education schools is decreasing year by year, and the enrollment of vocational education is also decreasing. On the one hand, due to the imperfection of the teaching system of academic education, the trained talents and skills do not meet the needs of the labor market and cannot achieve a good connection between supply and demand. Therefore, adapting to the adjustment of industrial structure and the integration of production and education has become the focus of its future development; On the other hand, people's long-standing prejudice against vocational education leads to difficulties in enrolling students in vocational education schools and the quality of students is not competitive. The above is a complete analysis of the prospect and present situation of vocational education.