1. Trend of real estate regulation and control policies
It is predicted that the key to real estate regulation in 2007 is to strengthen the implementation of policies, and the key points of policies are to speed up the adjustment of housing structure, improve the housing security system, vigorously standardize the market order, and continue to do a good job in supervision and inspection. At the same time, in view of the complexity of the current economic and social contradictions in China and the uncertainty of the main behavior of the real estate market, there is still some uncertainty in the real estate regulation and control policy.
2. Real estate market conditions
It is predicted that the overall development of China real estate market will improve in 2007, the trend of structural adjustment will further increase, and the characteristics of market differentiation will become more obvious, but the improvement of the market is still a gradual process. This is mainly manifested in four aspects: first, the demand in the real estate market is still relatively strong; Second, the investment and supply structure of the real estate market will be greatly improved; Third, the overall increase in house prices will stabilize and fall, and the price trends of various market segments will be differentiated; Fourth, the rapid development of the real estate market in the central and western regions and second-and third-tier cities has basically taken shape, and the cross-regional operation pattern of large real estate enterprise groups has become more obvious, and the wave-like expansion pattern of the national real estate market has initially taken shape.
3. The competition in the same industry is further fierce.
At present, China's commercial banks have fierce competition in the public real estate credit business market, especially in recent years, all banks have taken vigorously developing personal housing loan business as the focus of strategic transformation. In order to promote the development of individual housing loan business, banks have increased the allocation of public real estate credit resources for high-quality real estate development enterprises and high-quality houses. At present, China Construction Bank, which started the first and largest corporate real estate credit business, still holds a large market share and maintains a strong competitive advantage by virtue of its traditional advantages; In recent years, Agricultural Bank of China has been actively developing real estate credit business with good asset quality and benefit in its business structure, and the rapid growth momentum is very rapid; After the listing of Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the adjustment of the public business sector has greatly enhanced their business competitiveness and latecomer advantage; Joint-stock commercial banks such as Minsheng Bank rely on flexible incentive mechanism to increase the marketing of high-quality customers; With the full opening of the financial industry five years after China's entry into NT00, foreign banks will make full use of their superior management and risk control capabilities and rely on leading products and services to further occupy some high-end markets in key cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. In addition, with the gradual transition of China Development Bank to commercial banks, market competition will be further intensified.
4. The impact of direct financing
To some extent, the development of real estate direct financing is not only the objective demand of the development of China's real estate market and financial market, but also the development goal actively advocated and worked hard by government departments such as the People's Bank of China. In recent years, many real estate development enterprises have sought to raise funds through IPO, rights issue, private placement, trust, bonds and other diversified financing channels after the bank's credit gate continues to shrink, or because of the shortage of capital chain, or because of the need to expand business and reserve land resources, or because of the need to acquire the equity or assets of other real estate enterprises. More and more real estate enterprises, especially high-quality real estate enterprises, will seek more forms of financial support, which will divert the better credit demand of commercial banks in China to some extent.
Second, the impact of the current situation on the real estate finance business of China's commercial banks
At present, the real estate finance business opportunities and challenges of China's commercial banks coexist.
1. Development opportunities
First, it is conducive to the sustained and healthy development of commercial banking business. According to China's "residential goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way", in order to achieve the goal of 30 square meters per capita housing area in cities and towns in 20 10, it can be clearly predicted that there is still a large room for development of China's real estate industry in the future, which provides a basis for commercial banks to expand their real estate finance business space. At present, the state's macro-control of the real estate market is conducive to the long-term development of the real estate industry, thus contributing to the sustained and healthy development of the real estate financial business.
Second, it is conducive to commercial banks to optimize their business structure. With the tightening of land and credit policies, the real estate market will further emerge the situation of survival of the fittest, which is conducive to commercial banks to optimize the real estate customer structure; The development of central and western regions and second and third tier cities is conducive to commercial banks to expand their business and develop new regional space; The demand for self-occupation based on ordinary housing has been further guided and supported by the government, which is conducive to the further investment of commercial bank loans in ordinary housing projects with real needs.
Third, it is conducive to commercial banks to prevent and resolve credit risks. First, in 2006, the regulatory policy once again reiterated that enterprises with their own funds below 35% and other loan conditions are not allowed to issue loans, and added new credit management requirements, indicating that the management department aims to establish a long-term mechanism to regulate the steady operation of commercial banks, which is conducive to commercial banks to further strengthen their awareness of risk prevention. Second, the relevant quantitative indicators are helpful for commercial banks to clearly and accurately grasp policies and enhance the scientific and operability of management. For example, the proportion of houses below 90 square meters is not less than 70%, which is conducive to the branches of commercial banks to grasp the access conditions of ordinary residential projects and investigate risks in advance; For another example, it is stipulated that commercial housing banks that have been vacant for three years should not be used as collateral for loans, which will prompt commercial banks to choose better collateral when issuing loans or accelerate the recovery of loan funds. Third, the information transparency of the real estate market will be strengthened, which will help commercial banks to monitor the project sales in real time.
2. Challenges faced
First, policy risks still exist. At present, the real estate market in China is still dominated by the government to some extent. Whether the regulatory policy can achieve the expected goal depends on the specific measures of relevant ministries and local governments and the reaction of market players. There are certain uncertainties in market development and future policy orientation. This makes it more difficult for commercial banks to judge the market, projects and customers, and the potential risks of credit business increase.
Second, the risks in the local real estate market still exist. First of all, the possibility that the sales progress of some properties in some areas will slow down or cannot be sold still exists. Secondly, under the background of macro-control, some small and medium-sized real estate development enterprises have weak comprehensive strength and high debt ratio, so they can't get continuous financial support, and the capital chain is facing the risk of fracture. Thirdly, the adjustment of land supply mode, the transfer of land use rights and the control of demolition scale have certain influence on land reserve loans. For example, the regulation policy has adjusted the land supply mode, from the single highest-priced land in the past to the comprehensive bidding mode of competitive land price and real price on the basis of limited apartment type and limited house price. Therefore, in the future, there may be a phenomenon of land price decline or "auction", which will lead to the government's land transfer income being lower than the existing land storage and storage cost or the land transfer income cannot be realized at all; For another example, the regulatory policy moderately controls the scale and progress of demolition, which will increase the uncertainty of the land purchasing and storage process.
Third, the accelerated differentiation of market development puts forward higher requirements for the real estate credit management level of commercial banks. The difference of real estate market is not only reflected in the same product market at different regional levels, but also in different product markets at the same regional level. This requires commercial banks to further refine their real estate credit policies according to the differentiated characteristics of the market, and scientifically formulate differentiated policies that are differentiated, maintained and pressured, advanced and retreated.
Fourthly, the intensification of horizontal competition and the diversification of financing channels put forward higher requirements for the management and service of commercial banks. In recent years, the strengthening of land and financial control policies has further demonstrated the importance of capital and enterprise strength to enterprise development. For example, the bidding method of land has strict requirements on the payment time of land price, and companies without sufficient financial strength cannot complete the payment of land price in a short time. On the one hand, commercial banks will intensify competition in a few high-quality customers and projects that meet regulatory requirements. On the other hand, due to the time mismatch between the capital demand of development enterprises and the credit supply that meets the regulatory requirements, real estate development enterprises often no longer need bank credit support when they meet the credit conditions such as "four certificates are complete". More and more development enterprises are actively looking for other ways to obtain funds besides traditional bank credit, which will have a great impact on the effective credit demand of commercial banks, which requires commercial banks to actively take corresponding countermeasures in credit process, varieties and services to expand effective business demand.
Thirdly, the development strategy of real estate finance business of commercial banks in China under the current situation.
Correctly interpret the regulatory policies, scientifically analyze the real estate market situation, especially strengthen the analysis of the local real estate market and the research on related policies.
China's commercial banks should correctly understand the far-reaching significance of real estate regulation and control policies to promote the sustained and healthy development of the real estate industry, and understand that the focus of regulation and control is to develop "ordinary commodity housing" that "meets the self-occupation needs of local residents"; Understand that the careful implementation of regulatory policies and the steady development of business have inherent coordination and consistency. In view of the strong regional nature of the real estate industry and the great differences in local conditions, commercial banks should strengthen communication with local government departments on the one hand, and focus on analyzing the implementation rules or policies and measures that have been or will be issued by local government departments such as planning, land, planning and construction; On the other hand, we should carefully analyze the supply and demand situation of the local real estate market, the market operation characteristics, and the possible impact of various policies on the local market and the real estate credit business of commercial banks. By strengthening the analysis and research on regional markets, we can enhance the accuracy of judging the business development environment and provide a more scientific basis for business decision-making.
2. Strengthen the constraint of economic capital on risky assets, and implement a scientific strategy of total loan amount and delivery rhythm.
Commercial banks should be guided by the capital adequacy ratio requirements of regulatory authorities, strengthen the constraints of capital on risky assets, and focus on the allocation of economic capital to realize the effective allocation of various risky assets in public real estate finance business. According to its own assets and liabilities structure, real estate industry risk limits and other indicators, we should reasonably determine the development scale of the bank's credit business of real estate companies throughout the year. At the same time, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the business development of each branch in 2006, the real estate market, customers and project reserves in 2007, scientifically and reasonably formulate the credit business development plan of each branch in 2007, and establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism linked to the asset quality level of each branch. For branches whose asset quality has deteriorated to varying degrees, their new scale should be reduced accordingly. In order to avoid the ups and downs of business development throughout the year, commercial banks should guide branches to strengthen the classification, sequencing and planning management of customers and projects to be launched during the year, rationally allocate credit resources according to the new scale of the year, scientifically grasp the pace of loan launch, and effectively achieve balanced launch time and effective scale control.
3. subdivide customers, help the superior and eliminate the inferior, and implement the customer structure adjustment strategy.
On the basis of customer segmentation, commercial banks should formulate scientific and reasonable customer access and exit standards according to the different characteristics of various businesses, implement the mechanism of excellent customer access and bad customer exit, and implement the customer structure adjustment strategy of "paying equal attention to advance and retreat, and promising and then retreating". On the one hand, in the initial stage of business acceptance, we should strictly follow the established customer access standards, standardize customer credit marketing and credit management, and move the risk control threshold forward. In the real estate development loan business, we should focus on supporting real estate enterprises (groups) with high qualification level, good credit, strong comprehensive strength and good operating performance, or real estate project companies with good growth and profitability; For ordinary customers who do not belong to the above-mentioned high-quality customers, in addition to meeting the loan conditions stipulated by the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, customers should also meet the following conditions: the development enterprise or its shareholders and principals have rich experience in real estate development, have successful cases of real estate operation, and the investors and development enterprises have no bad credit records of defaulting on bank loans in the past two years; For real estate development enterprises with large vacancy rate and high asset-liability ratio, loans should be strictly controlled; Real estate development loans shall not be issued to development enterprises whose capital fails to meet the prescribed standards, misappropriates or evades registered capital, or fails to pay the project funds as agreed in the contract and is listed as a bad credit unit by the construction administrative department. In terms of land reserve loan business, we will focus on supporting land reserve institutions in provinces, municipalities directly under the central government and central cities in economically developed areas with perfect legal person organization, sufficient capital, standardized management, monopoly operation, good financial status and reputation of local governments, standardized real estate market behavior and good development prospects; For other cities that meet the above conditions, land reserve loans should be issued cautiously. On the other hand, commercial banks should implement the withdrawal mechanism of inferior customers and take advantage of the favorable opportunity of supervision to voluntarily withdraw customers with small scale, high risk and poor efficiency. When the customer can operate normally, but the development prospect is not good, the financial situation is deteriorating, the customer's decision-making is biased and wrong, or there are potential risks, or the customer's operating period is about to expire and the project being operated is about to be completed, measures should be taken to voluntarily withdraw.
4. Reasonably grasp the investment of loan projects and implement the project structure adjustment strategy.
Compared with the general corporate loans of commercial banks, the outstanding feature of corporate real estate credit business, including real estate development loans and land reserve loans, is that the repayment source mainly depends on the sales/transfer income of special products-real estate projects. Therefore, the choice of loan projects is of great significance to commercial banks.
According to China's policy orientation and market development, commercial banks' real estate development loans should focus on supporting small and medium-sized residential projects with location advantages and marketable prices, and actively support energy-saving and land-saving projects; Strictly control the issuance of real estate development loans to large-sized high-grade commercial housing and non-residential projects such as office buildings and commercial facilities with prices significantly higher than the local average; It is strictly forbidden to issue loans to "image projects", "performance projects" and various illegal real estate projects that do not meet the local economic development level. For land reserve loans, commercial banks should carefully choose land reserve loan projects, and the land to be purchased and reserved should meet the needs of urban development and construction and recent urban construction planning, be included in the annual land purchase and reserve plan formulated by the government, and have opinions on the location of the land to be purchased. Land reserve loans may not be issued to all kinds of development zones, parks and changed land in Sasaki (county) that are not included in unified planning and management and have not prepared and adjusted the recent construction plan as required.
5. Actively pay attention to regional development trends and implement regional structural adjustment strategies.
According to the development characteristics of China's economy and real estate market, the eastern region, especially the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim region, is still the most important region for market development, which deserves the key support of commercial banks, and should focus on regional central cities with standardized market order, late-comer advantages and stable housing prices. We should pay attention to prudent investment in cities with high housing prices and large fluctuations, and strictly control investment in areas where real estate investment is overheated, housing prices are rising too fast, and the real estate market is in disorder. In addition, actively support the central and western regions and second-and third-tier cities with great development potential, and steadily increase market share.
6. Differentiate and implement differentiated services and management strategies.
In order to effectively realize the above-mentioned customer, project and regional structural adjustment, commercial banks should focus on the following aspects to strengthen credit services and management. First, establish a green channel for business processes, give priority to regions, customers and projects supported by key projects, reduce credit access review links, give priority to arranging professionals to complete the evaluation of key customers and projects, give priority to approval, and appropriately extend the credit period; The second is to establish differentiated pricing and guarantee mechanisms, give preferential loan interest rates to key areas, customers and projects, and moderately reduce guarantee conditions; In principle, the loan interest rate and guarantee conditions should be raised for customers and projects that are cautiously supported or not supported; The third is to establish a differentiated customer service team. For key supported customers and projects, especially cross-regional key customers, a special customer service team should be established to provide customers with timely and convenient services. Fourth, establish a differentiated resource allocation mechanism, and tilt towards key support regions, customers and projects in terms of credit scale and marketing expenses.
7. Strengthen risk and quality awareness, implement dynamic risk monitoring and early warning, and steadily improve asset quality strategy.
First of all, we should strengthen the prevention of market risks. Commercial banks should improve their ability to analyze and predict the development situation of the real estate market, make early warning analysis of the factors that are not conducive to the development of real estate credit business in time, and avoid and guard against the risks in the real estate market. We should pay special attention to the risk of regional market adjustment caused by the imbalance of economic development in different regions, the risk of structural imbalance of product supply caused by different levels of real estate market development in different regions, and the policy risk of strengthening the regulation of real estate market by the state to avoid the market risk that may be brought about by the immature and irregular market itself. Secondly, we should strengthen the prevention of credit risk. Commercial banks should improve their ability to assess customers' credit risk. It is necessary to strengthen credit evaluation and comprehensive credit granting for real estate enterprise customers, actively promote customer credit rating, expand the coverage of credit rating, realize scientific calculation and reasonable credit granting, and improve the quality of customer evaluation and credit granting. Credit business should be carried out scientifically and reasonably according to the customer's rating results and credit line. Third, we must strengthen operational risk prevention. Commercial banks should conscientiously implement the operating rules of real estate finance business, strictly implement the "three checks" system of loans (referring to the pre-loan investigation, in-loan review and post-loan inspection made by enterprises when granting loans), increase the punishment for illegal loans, and effectively prevent operational risks. According to the business characteristics of real estate development loans and land reserve loans, commercial banks should explore and improve the closed operation management of project loan funds, effectively control the use of project credit funds, and prevent credit risks caused by customers fleeing, occupying or misappropriating funds.
8. Take customers as the center and market demand as the guide, and implement product innovation strategy.
First of all, commercial banks should speed up the combing of traditional real estate development loan products and optimize traditional credit products. According to the nature of different properties such as houses, office buildings, commercial facilities and industrial buildings and the characteristics of their target customers, we will refine and differentiate the product elements of real estate development loans, formulate differentiated service measures, and improve the satisfaction of real estate development loans to customers' needs. At present, we should combine local policies and market conditions, especially accelerate the exploration of products suitable for the needs of low-and middle-priced housing, and realize the organic combination of commercial value and social interests of commercial banks in China. Secondly, commercial banks should actively explore new business varieties and business models. For example, some enterprises adopt long-term holding operation instead of traditional post-development sales operation mode for some commercial properties, and accelerate the research and development of products suitable for operating properties. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the linkage between credit business and investment banking business. Jointly provide financial advisory services for customers, and actively adapt to the development trend of diversified financing for customers and integrated operation of commercial banks.