Second, long-term oil policy choice and financial game

As an important strategic resource related to the national economy and people's livelihood, oil has always been one of the important factors affecting the economic development of all countries and even the world. Especially today, the world economy is in the recovery stage of economic adjustment, and the transformation and renewal of economic and industrial structures in various countries have further expanded the demand for international oil. The rapid economic development and economic upgrading cycle in some emerging market countries and regions have increased the demand for petroleum energy resources. This shows the importance of oil prices. If the oil price is too high, it will promote the increase of production cost and price and directly restrict the speed of economic development; On the other hand, if the oil price is too low, the foreign exchange income of oil exporting countries will be greatly reduced, thus damaging the economic interests of oil exporting countries; Therefore, in the medium term, how to maintain the international oil price at a reasonable level is a major issue that the international community needs to properly solve.

1. Uncertainty of world economic growth. The continuous rise of international oil prices is an uncertain factor for the further growth of the world economy. According to the International Monetary Fund's estimation, if the international oil price rises by $5 per barrel, the world economic growth rate will decrease by 0.3 percentage points 1 year. The fluctuation of oil production and price is a cyclical problem, which will affect the economic growth of different countries. When the international oil price is at a high level, it will lead to oil overproduction and oversupply, and then the price will plummet, leading to oil production contraction and oil price increase. This has been proved by history. Therefore, the economic growth of the countries concerned will inevitably be affected by this oil production-price cycle. In contrast, oil importing countries will be more vulnerable to this economic cycle fluctuation than exporting countries. At present, the demand for oil in the economic recovery of industrialized countries is also increasing. Oil is the most important import item of developed countries and the biggest deficit item in foreign trade. The fluctuation of international oil prices will have the most direct impact on the euro zone countries that rely heavily on imports. A very important reason for the depreciation of the euro lies in the pressure of rising inflation in the euro zone brought about by the rise of international oil prices. Even if the problem of rising prices is temporarily alleviated because of the increase of oil exporting countries, it is impossible to change this basic trend.

From the perspective of developing countries, the economic recovery in Asia has been relatively good in recent years, which has expanded the demand for oil supply. During the period of 1990- 1999, the increase in oil demand in East Asian countries accounted for about 80% of the increase in global oil demand, except for oil-producing countries in West Asia. If the oil price remains high, it will exert great pressure on Asian countries' fiscal revenue and expenditure, inflation, international trade revenue and expenditure and foreign debt repayment ability, and affect the good momentum of Asian economic growth. North America, Europe and Asia are the three largest oil markets in the world, among which Asia's oil demand is the fastest growing, but Asia's oil output as a major oil producer has basically not increased, which has greatly increased the oil imports of Asian countries from the Middle East. In addition, the political and economic turmoil in major oil-producing developing countries and regions also directly affects the fluctuation and rise of oil prices. For example, political problems in Venezuela have seriously reduced oil production, equipment aging and oil production reduction caused by Saudi economy, and destructive oil resources in Iraq are all potential oil price fluctuations. Among the oil-producing countries, some developing countries or countries with economies in transition, such as Russia, rely heavily on oil revenues to boost their economies and are greatly affected by oil price fluctuations. The price increase makes them happy, and the price reduction makes them sad. The rise of international oil prices since 2003 has greatly restricted the overall recovery and growth level of the world economy. As the tension in Iraq deteriorates again due to sudden violence, the high international oil price may become an obstacle to the recovery of the world economy.

2. The inevitability of structural adjustment of energy demand. With the economic globalization, the rapid development of productive forces, the rapid enhancement of national economic strength and the improvement of economic growth quality, the demand for energy in various countries is increasing day by day. In 2004, the world oil demand increased by 6.5438+650 million barrels per day, and the daily oil consumption reached 79.9 million barrels. At the same time, the international energy demand structure is undergoing fundamental changes, the world crude oil stocks are decreasing, and the comprehensive problems of resources, technology and equipment for oil exploitation are outstanding; In addition, the decline in coal demand and the rapid increase in fuel and natural gas demand have made the contradiction between international fuel supply and demand more and more prominent; With the increase of high-tech content in the new economy, international oil production, transportation and storage have also undergone high-tech transformation, and the combination of alternative oil and crude oil resources has gradually emerged. The development of natural gas, hydrogen and other energy sources has also affected the international oil supply and demand pattern. As the world economy is facing the transition from the traditional economy to the new economy, especially the structural transition from export-driven to investment-driven, the expansion of domestic demand in various countries not only increases the investment demand, but also promotes the sharp rise of international raw material prices, and the rise of raw materials such as oil, steel and coal has produced a joint reaction. In the era of global commodity flow, there are transportation bottlenecks and storage technology problems in the international oil market. High transportation costs, crowded ports and roads, and rising storage costs have all stimulated the further rise of oil prices to some extent.

The US Energy Agency predicts that the global demand for various forms of energy will increase by 54% in the next 20 years, and the daily consumption of crude oil alone may increase to 40 million barrels. The forecast of American Energy Information Association (EIA) in 2025 also shows that the energy use in developing countries will show the strongest growth, especially in China and India, which will further increase their energy demand due to their vibrant economies. It is predicted that the energy consumption of developing countries will increase by 965,438+0% in the next 20 years, while that of industrialized countries will increase by 33%. It is predicted that the global oil demand will increase to 1.2 1 billion barrels per day in 2025 and 8 1 billion barrels per day in 2004. The United States, China and other developing countries in Asia will digest nearly 60% of the new crude oil. According to statistics, the energy demand in Asia will increase by 8%- 10% in 2004, and the supporting role of oil in economic growth is self-evident.

3. Coordination of international economic relations. The oil problem has multi-level complexity in international economic relations, such as the contradiction between OPEC and non-OPEC, the contradiction between oil supply and demand, and then extends to the complex coordination and cooperation between big countries and powerful countries, rich countries and rich countries, big countries and small countries, rich countries and poor countries. The uncertain fluctuation of international oil price interferes with the recovery of the world economy and increases the difficulty of economic policy coordination in major countries and regions. The changes in the relationship between oil supply and demand in international economic relations caused by international oil problems mainly focus on financial security and economic interests. The oil issue has become an important bargaining chip for the strengthening and loosening, reorganization and clutch of state relations, among which the prominent influencing factors are the economic interests, political hegemony, military power and its unique position in the financial market of the United States. The oil issue is the main line of American foreign political, trade, economic and diplomatic relations, and it is also one of the main fronts of economic and financial competition and contest between the United States, Europe and Japan. Statistics show that 25% of the total oil imported by the United States comes from the Middle East, 60% from Europe and 80% from Japan. The competition among the three major interest groups in the United States, Europe and Japan stems from oil and complains about oil.

The supply and demand pattern of world economic development is becoming more and more obvious. Developed countries are major oil consumers, and most oil exports are concentrated in some developing countries and countries with economies in transition. There are mutual needs and contradictions here, and it is a relationship that needs constant adjustment and coordination. In addition, multiple and complicated international relations such as the United States and Russia, Japan and Russia, China and Japan, old and new Europe are permeated with oil, and political intentions have also become an important incentive for oil price fluctuations. In particular, Russia's interests are intertwined with those of some western powers, which have both the intention of the west to expand and deepen Russia's interests and the strategic intention of the west to demand Russian oil. Japan's actions on the Siberian oil pipeline are well known, while the United States is making long-term plans.

From the perspective of resource regions, Gulf oil is the main support point for oil consumption in industrialized countries. Therefore, international forces on the world stage are keeping a close eye on the huge oil reserves in the Gulf region. It is not difficult to find that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues and the Gulf War continues. Gulf oil is one of the focuses of world economic and political issues, and its rise and fall indicates the development trend of the international situation. After the end of the American war against Iraq, the international oil prospect will be more unpredictable, and the impact of the war on the oil market will exceed expectations. In 2004, political factors will play a leading role in oil prices. With the weakening of political issues and the strengthening of accumulation, oil price fluctuations will continue to expand.

4. The difference between globalization and regionalization. Since the advent of the euro, the rejection and attack on the euro has been the main theme of American international financial strategy, and the tangible and intangible contest has made the euro face great pressure and risks. The fundamental difference between America and Europe lies in the game of globalization and regionalization. The United States and Japan are admirers of economic globalization, because their economic scale, market share and development level are dominant, which makes it difficult for them to integrate with weak developing countries or emerging market economies in the region. They are afraid of paying the "price" in regionalization, so they are bound to show their advantages and consolidate their interests by globalization. Europe, on the other hand, is a developed economy with relatively balanced politics, economy, finance and trade, and has the inherent advantage of regionalization. 1 The realization of the EU's eastward expansion 10 in May, 2000 has made the integration of old and new Europe form a stronger economic alliance, surpassing the United States in economy, population and market. The differences in the interests of globalization and regionalization between the United States, Japan and Europe, as well as the unbalanced and balanced situation, are mainly due to the different concepts of economic globalization and European economic regionalization. The differences in economic and financial concepts between the United States, Europe and Japan are also reflected in the price competition in financial markets, such as exchange rate, stock price, gold price or oil price. In the international oil competition, the three major economies or monetary bodies will inevitably increase the competition of international resource products with their own ideas of economic globalization or regionalization. It is an important strategic intention of the United States to attack the original oil supply and demand pattern with the wars in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq, supplemented by currency competition. From Japan's point of view, in order to make up for its own oil demand, it has strengthened economic and trade cooperation with Asian and Middle Eastern countries, improved and even strengthened its relations with Russia, and its trend is also worth pondering and studying.

In particular, the trend of international oil prices has exceeded the relatively optimistic and peaceful expectations of the market, and the degree of using oil as a political strategic bargaining chip has been greatly improved, which hides the financial strategies of big countries such as the United States. The United States can take advantage of the dollar quotation system to control oil prices through the dollar-linked oil quotation, and further demonstrate the comprehensive advantages of its global oil strategy and financial strategy with the help of the oil reserve strategy.

[Countermeasures] International oil price trend and China's oil strategy

The international oil price is inflated due to the demand of global economic recovery, tense due to the policy adjustment of oil-producing countries, deteriorating due to geopolitical factors and changing due to seasonal factors, and the future prospect is not optimistic. In any case, the continuous rise of oil will inevitably affect the world economic growth. It is predicted that the price trend of the international oil market will be difficult to steadily decline in the short term, and will continue to operate at a high level in the medium term. Therefore, in 2004, the peak of international oil price will exceed $40 or even $45, and the annual average oil price will probably reach around $35, which is higher than the average price of $365,438 +0 last year. If the international oil price remains at a high level of $ 35-40 for a period of time, the world economic growth will be damaged by at least 0.2 percentage points; In the next 2-3 years, international oil prices will continue to rise and fall, but the average annual price may fluctuate in the range of 33-38 dollars. For the world economy, neither financial risk nor oil crisis can be taken lightly, and it is more worthy of attention and prevention of international financial risks caused by oil price changes, including the fluctuation risk of the US dollar and the potential crisis risk of European currencies. The exchange rate trend of these two currencies is directly related to the oil price level, which will definitely affect the changes and adjustments of global economy, finance, trade and investment. The Group of Seven, which has been convened and will be convened again this year, has been paying attention to oil and exchange rate issues, highlighting the inevitable connection and important influence of oil and financial security. The rising trend of global interest rate will further increase the linkage effect between international financial market and international oil market.

China is a new strategic factor in the international oil market. Expanding oil imports has become an important factor affecting international oil prices. With the sustained economic growth, China has become a big oil demand country. Last year, it imported 994 10000 tons of oil, and this year it may reach100 to1200,000 tons, which is also the highest point of world oil consumption in four years. According to the recent forecast of the International Energy Agency, China's oil demand growth will continue to exceed expectations, providing support for the high international oil price. The International Energy Agency raised the daily oil demand of China in the first quarter of 2004 from 6,543.8+0.8 million barrels to 6,654.38+0.4 million barrels, an increase of 654.38+0.8% compared with the same period last year. At present, China is the second largest oil consumer in the world after the United States. In 2003, the average import volume of crude oil and petroleum products was 265,438+006,000 barrels per day. China's daily oil imports in February soared to a record 3 1.62 million barrels, 283,000 barrels higher than that in June. Statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that in the first three months of 2004, China imported 3,065,438+400,000 tons of crude oil, an increase of 35.7% over the same period last year. In the latest monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also pointed out that due to the rapid economic development in China, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will raise its world oil consumption forecast in 2004, which is expected to increase from 23.87 million barrels per day to 2,665,438+700,000 barrels per day.

While China's energy consumption began to have an important impact on the international energy market, fluctuations in international oil prices also led to fluctuations in domestic oil prices. From 65438 to 0998, China began to dynamically manage the domestic refined oil market, that is, adjust the domestic refined oil price according to the fluctuation of crude oil price in the international market. The huge fluctuation of oil price in the international market not only affects the operating performance of oil and upstream and downstream enterprises, but also increases the operating difficulty of related enterprises, and also has a wide impact on the trend of China's economy, especially the price trend. In view of this, we should speed up the implementation of the "national petroleum reserve strategy", carry out oil futures trading, improve the price formation and adjustment mechanism of domestic refined oil market, safeguard China's oil security and financial security, and ensure the healthy and stable development of the national economy.