Education investment: a package of market economy countermeasures for surplus value rate and accumulation rate
Introduction: Japan is one of the big capitalist economies. After World War II, the economy collapsed and everything was depressed. With the assistance and support of the United States, the whole country made great efforts to learn and introduce science and technology from Europe and the United States, which made Japan's national economy develop rapidly and returned to the level before World War II in 1955. By 1968, the gross national product surpassed the former Soviet Union, ranking second in the world. At the end of 1980s, there was an extremely serious economic bubble in Japan. Since the 1990s, the "bubble" economy has burst, the financial crisis is serious, the economic recovery is weak, and the political situation has changed frequently, losing the momentum of catching up with the United States and Western Europe. However, its comprehensive national strength ranks second in the world and plays an important role in the progress of the world economy.
The first part discusses the reasons for Japan's rapid economic development after the war.
First, Japan's economic recovery after World War II.
In World War II, Japan suffered a crushing defeat. The Japanese lost 2.35 million people in the war, and the colonies occupied by the war, such as Korea, South Sakhalin Island, Taiwan Province Province and Northeast China, were also completely lost, and most local cities were devastated. At this time, Japan's economy has collapsed. Due to the sharp decline in industrial production, a large number of workers have lost their jobs, especially in the munitions industry, and at least 50% of the workers have been fired. At the same time, demobilized soldiers and overseas retirees flocked in, and the number of unemployed people soared to130 thousand at the end of the war. During the war, the government issued a large number of deficit bonds to raise military expenses. Since 1944, the accumulated balance of public debt has exceeded the national income of that year. After the war, the central bank issued a large number of loans to help the emergency, which greatly intensified the contradiction between money surplus and material scarcity. At that time, Japanese scholars described Japan's future as "foggy and dark". Japan's economy is almost at the end of its tether.
However, it only took 10 years for Japan's economy to recover quickly from the ruins of war. By 1955, Japan's industrial production, national income and labor productivity all exceeded the highest level before or after World War II. Import and export trade recovered to 90% and 72% before World War II respectively, with the balance of payments surplus exceeding $280 million and foreign exchange reserves reaching $900 million. At the same time, domestic inflation has been controlled, and the financial situation has also improved significantly.
I think the reasons for Japan's rapid economic development after World War II are:
1, the implementation of strategic shift, adopted a strategic decision to adapt to national conditions and national strength. After World War II, the Ji Tianmao government commissioned a group of experts and scholars to study the way out of the Japanese economy. In the report "Basic Problems of Rebuilding Japan's Economy", the policy of building the country economically was put forward, pointing out that only by establishing the road of building the country economically can Japan's economy be restored and developed. Japan has successively restored basic industries such as coal, steel, electric power, chemical fertilizer, transportation (railways, shipping), and established a financial industry, giving strong support to the production departments, so that the production industries have been significantly developed. The rapid recovery of these sectors provided cheap power, raw materials and transportation for the whole national economy, which in turn promoted and promoted the recovery of the whole economy. According to the lack of natural resources such as minerals in Japan, practical technologies with high technical level and low energy consumption are introduced vigorously.
2. Democratic reform based on the American model. After World War II, the American occupation troops stationed in Japan in the name of the United Nations, in order to "ensure that Japan no longer poses a threat to the United States", they fully integrated Japan into the political and economic system of the United States, and at the same time, under the strong pressure of international democratic forces at that time, they pursued policies aimed at eliminating the political system and economic foundation that supported Japanese militaristic forces.
3. American assistance. After World War II, the United States carried out demilitarization and democratization reforms in order to completely eradicate Japanese militaristic forces and weaken monopoly capital. Soon, the situation changed and the former Soviet Union confronted the United States. Therefore, the United States changed its policy toward Japan, incorporated it into the United States Far East anti-* * strategic system, relaxed its restrictions on Japan, and turned to support it, hoping that Japan would become an important force in the anti-* * trend. The United States also provides assistance through the War Zone Relief Fund and the War Zone Economic Recovery Fund. 1946- 195 1 year, assisting 210.8 billion dollars in various ways, accounting for more than 40% of Japan's total imports in the same period. American aid was paid in the form of grain, accounting for 40% of the proceeds from the sale. It was used to buy urgently needed means of production such as oil, fertilizer and cotton and raw materials for processing and export, which played a considerable role in alleviating the food crisis in Japan at that time and developing the economy.
4. The Korean War is exciting. 1950 After the Korean War broke out in June, Japan suddenly became a military base and war material supplier of the United States. This rapidly expanding "special demand" has created a broad market for Japan. It promoted export trade and enlivened all industrial and mining departments.
Second, Japan's economic development after World War II
From 65438 to 0955, Japan's economy fully recovered, but its economic strength was far from that of European and American countries. At that time, the gross national product was $24 billion, only 6.7% of the United States and 56% of the Federal Republic of Germany. Per capita national income 194 USD, ranking 34th in the capitalist world. The industrial structure and trade structure are quite backward. The number of employees in the primary industry accounts for 40% of the total employment, and among the export commodities, light industrial products account for 62%. The overall level of science and technology lags behind Europe and America for 20 years, but during the period of 1, 956- 1, 973, the development speed was extremely fast: the average annual growth rate of the gross national product was 1.9%, quadrupling and increasing by 1.6 times. This is unprecedented in Japanese history and unique in the world economic history.
In the rapid economic development, Japan realized the modernization of industry and agriculture in the mid-1970s, and the management of enterprises became expert and scientific. The labor productivity of major industrial sectors has reached and surpassed the world advanced level, and the quality and output of major products have also entered the international advanced ranks.
The main reasons for Japan's rapid economic development are:
1, correct economic development strategy and strong state intervention measures. It is this immature heavy industry that did not develop before World War II that was enriched and developed in the following 20 years, which made Japan's economy grow rapidly and become a world power.
Once the heavy chemical industry entered the formal development stage, it quickly aroused the national strength buried in the light industry period, and developed to a certain extent, which can provide the most suitable steel raw materials, machinery and equipment and various chemical products for various industries in China, making the technology skilled and unique.
Strengthening the state's intervention and regulation of economic life is highlighted by vigorously supporting heavy chemical industries, emerging industries and export industries. Give special preferential treatment in taxation, loans and industrial policies. The state's intervention in economic life is also manifested in strict restrictions on the import of foreign goods and foreign capital. According to the Japanese government, except for the raw materials necessary for advanced equipment imported with advanced technology, the import of all other complete machines and finished products is strictly restricted. Japan has protected its domestic industries for a long time, and only after its domestic industries have strong international competitiveness will it gradually open its market to foreign countries. Until today, Japan's rice market is still impregnable, which is an important reason for Japan's agricultural development.
2, vigorously introduce foreign advanced technology, and actively cultivate domestic scientific and technological strength. After the formulation of heavy chemical industry policy, the introduction of science and technology has occupied a prominent position in various measures taken to promote development. The Japanese understand that an economically backward country must take the most advanced things in the world as the starting point if it wants to catch up later. Large-scale introduction, digestion and absorption of foreign advanced technology not only greatly promoted the heavy chemical industry, but also made Japan's chemical industry and later semiconductor, communication and other industries in the world leading position.
In order to cooperate with the introduction of technology, the Japanese government has expanded investment in education and trained scientific and technological talents. In the "National Income Multiplication Plan" put forward by the Japanese government in 1960, it was emphasized that "the fundamental thing to revitalize science and technology is to cultivate talents centered on science and technology education". Around the 1960s, the "education investment theory" prevailed in Japan, which believed that people were resources and education was a means to develop the economy. Therefore, talent development and education were included in the economic plan. It is really the forerunner of the "knowledge economy theory" that appeared in the 1990s. In terms of education investment, the continuous introduction of advanced science and technology is also the key to the rapid development of Japan's economy after World War II.
3. Continuously expand investment in fixed assets and capital accumulation. During the period of rapid economic growth, Japan's fixed assets investment increased from 65.438+077.84 billion yen to 255.46 billion yen, which increased by more than 654.38+03 times during the period of 654.38+05. The ratio of investment in fixed assets to GDP is around 1/3 every year, which is higher than other capitalist countries. Most of the investment in fixed assets is concentrated in the industrial field, especially in the four departments of steel, machinery, electricity and chemistry.
The huge amount of funds needed for large-scale investment in fixed assets in Japan mainly comes from the following aspects: First, capitalization of surplus value. Due to historical and social reasons, the wage rate of Japanese workers has been lower than that of other major capitalist countries for a long time, so it has a high surplus value rate and accumulation rate. Second, enterprises' foreign investment, such as savings conversion, private direct investment, financial support and foreign capital injection, is rich in sources. Japan has a high personal savings rate. During the period of 1964- 1973, the personal savings rate reached 12.8% (less than 10% in Britain, France, the United States and other countries), forming a relatively rich bank loanable funds. The Japanese government encourages private investment, and the dividends received by private investment are tax-free. Japan's military expenditure is very small, accounting for less than 1% of its gross national product and only 5%-7% of its fiscal revenue every year, especially after the expansion of its economic aggregate. Therefore, more funds can be concentrated for economic construction. In 1960s, government investment accounted for about 24% of the total domestic investment. 1956- 1973, Japan introduced foreign capital of US$ 26.9 billion, with direct loans and foreign stocks accounting for 89% of the total investment.
4. Unique enterprise management system. Japan systematically introduced the advanced management experience of the United States and combined it with its own traditional experience to form an efficient enterprise management system. This scientific and efficient management system and advanced technology are called the two wheels of rapid economic growth. Japan's unique management system can be summarized as "three great artifacts", namely: ① lifelong employment system; (2) the annual merit sequence system is combined with learning; (3) Internal trade union organization. As long as the enterprise does not close down, the employees of this enterprise can work in this enterprise. And enterprises are also very concerned about the interests of employees. The wages of employees can be increased year by year according to their length of service; Enterprises do not dismiss employees at will, etc., forming the cohesion of enterprises. Closely integrate the interests of employees and enterprises.
5. The development and distribution of natural resources after World War II are extremely beneficial to Japan. Japan is a country with extremely scarce natural resources, and it is short of almost everything except fresh water. A large number of raw materials and fuels needed to develop heavy chemical industry must be imported from other countries. After World War II, the vast number of colonies, semi-colonies and dependent countries became independent one after another, and countries vigorously developed and exported resources, especially large-scale oil exploitation, which triggered the energy revolution. 1950, the world oil output was 3.8 billion barrels, 1970 reached166.8 billion barrels. Resources such as iron ore, coal and copper mine in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Australia are also exploited in large quantities. After World War II, the price of primary products in the international market was very low, while the price of finished products rose sharply. This not only enables Japan to obtain a lot of energy and other resources cheaply, but also makes it earn a lot of "scissors difference" profits in import trade. Take the oil price as an example. 1973+00 Before the outbreak of the Middle East war in June, the price of a barrel of oil was only 2-3 dollars. After the Middle East War, it rose to about 12 USD per barrel. Japan's oil import rate in the 1960s and 1970s was 99.8%, and cheap oil benefited the Japanese economy greatly.
The second part of the existing problems
After the so-called "lost decade" in the 1990s, Japan's economy not only failed to get out of the shadow of long-term depression, but showed signs of deterioration. How to explain this phenomenon? How long will Japan's economic depression last in the future? Is it possible to get out of the depression? To find the answers to these questions, it should be said that the key lies in exploring the essence of Japan's current economic depression.
Kazuyoshi, a famous economic critic who served as the Minister of Economic Planning of Japan, believes that the current economic downturn in Japan is the result of the superposition of the following three reasons. First, the economic cycle is in the downward phase, which means that the Japanese economy will have an economic recession every five or six years; Second, the "balance sheet depression" means that after the collapse of the bubble economy, a large number of bad debts accumulated without being dealt with, which dragged down the equipment investment of enterprises and led to unstable employment; The third is "civilization depression", which means that Japan established a modern industrial society suitable for mass production after the war, but now the world is in transition to a diversified knowledge economy era, and Japan's mass production system, organization and habits have failed to keep pace with the new world civilization. Wu Jie advocated: "We must solve the problem of' three kinds of depression' at the same time." However, in addition to the above-mentioned "three depressions", it must be pointed out that there are at least two other depressions in Japan. One is "population depression", that is, the tendency of younger age in the population structure; The second is "political depression", that is, the political system reform lags behind and politics is increasingly conservative. Besides? Japan's economy is also affected by the slowdown of the world economy, especially the American economy on which Japan is deeply dependent.
A new round of economic downturn continues.
After the war, Japan's economy experienced ups and downs and experienced 13 cycles. 1998, the Japanese economy experienced a serious recession with negative growth. This is the first time that Japan experienced negative growth mainly due to domestic reasons after the war. It was not until1April 1999 that Japan's economy slowly picked up and entered the rising period of the postwar 13 economic cycle. After entering 2000, the economic situation in the first half of the year was quite good, the stock price rose, the investment in equipment centered on IT (information technology) industry increased a lot, the export remained in a good state, and the government expenditure also maintained a high level due to the supplementary budget. However, personal consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, has been negative for three consecutive years and continues to be weak. This means that although Japan's economic situation has improved, its "constitution" is still fragile. By the third quarter of 2000, the economic situation began to retrogress.
Japan's economy is heavily dependent on the American economy, which began to slow down in the third quarter of 2000, which dealt a great blow to Japan's economy. In terms of trade, exports to the United States account for more than 30% of Japan's total exports. The economic slowdown in the United States will not only affect Japan's exports to the United States, but also affect Japan's entire exports (because Japan's main export targets are also highly dependent on the United States). As a result, Japan's exports, which have been growing for five consecutive quarters since the second quarter 1999, stopped growing in the third quarter of 2000, and the trade surplus tended to decrease. Secondly, due to the bursting of the IT bubble, the demand for information and electronic products such as personal computers decreased, which directly hit the electronic device industry such as integrated circuits, which was the main engine driving Japan's economic recovery from 1999 to 2000. According to some people's estimation that "a drop of two percentage points in the US economic growth rate will lead to a drop of 0.8 percentage points in Japan's economy", the current slowdown in the US economy is tantamount to adding insult to injury to Japan's economy, whose economic growth rate is only a few percent.
Obviously, since the third quarter of last year, the Japanese economy has entered a period of decline in the economic cycle, thus making the Japanese economy usher in a very dark beginning at the beginning of the new century. 200 1 Japan's further economic decline is indeed an ominous sign for the future of Japan's economy at the beginning of the new century, because even such a poor economic performance in the 1990 s is at the expense of fiscal stimulus totaling 100 trillion yen (otherwise its economic performance may be even worse); When Japan's fiscal deficit accounts for nearly 10% of GDP, and the central and local government debts increase to 666 trillion yen, which is about 130% of GDP, there is little room for Japan to continue to rely on fiscal stimulus. Therefore, Japan's economic prospects at the beginning of 2 1 century are indeed "not bright".
Second, "balance sheet depression"
The problem of bad debts began with the bursting of Japan's bubble economy in the early 1990s, and Japanese financial institutions began to solve the problem in the mid-1990s. However, under the background of long-term economic depression and falling land prices, bad creditor's rights are like weeds that have been cut off and reborn, and have never been eradicated. According to statistics, by the end of March 20001,the bad debts of Japanese financial institutions were about 43.4 trillion yen, about 2 trillion yen more than the previous year. At the same time, the "problem creditor's rights" that may be converted into bad creditor's rights exceed 100 trillion yen.
The direct consequence of the problem of bad creditor's rights is bank lending, which in turn leads to financing difficulties for enterprises, thus inhibiting the equipment investment of enterprises and affecting the recovery of economic prosperity. This means that the financial intermediary function that banks should play is damaged, which leads to the unreasonable flow and effective utilization of social production factors; At the same time, the distrust of domestic and foreign investors in the stock market will also deepen, making the operation of banks more difficult. On the other hand, the economic depression is inducing new bad debts, forming a vicious circle of mutual drag. This is because the more depressed the economy is, the more enterprises are unable to pay their debts; The continuous decline of stock price and land price will lead to the depreciation of assets such as land as guarantee, so the potential bad creditor's rights will continue to increase and turn into real bad creditor's rights, and bad creditor's rights (that is, paying off debts with land as guarantee) are difficult to deal with because of the depreciation of assets such as land.
The root cause of bad creditor's rights is that the capital efficiency of enterprises is too low to pay off debts. Judging from the bank's balance sheet, dealing with non-performing claims is to peel off non-performing claims from the balance sheet first, so as to avoid confusing future-oriented economic activities with the results of past financing failures and cut off the vicious circle of non-performing claims caused by economic depression.
Now, Koizumi's regime requires major banks to divest existing bad debts from their balance sheets within two years, and divest new bad debts within three years, and puts forward the requirement of "completing bad debts within a time limit". Obviously, only by speeding up the handling of bad debts and reducing bad debts can banks easily provide funds to promising enterprises and actively cultivate new industrial fields, thus improving the labor productivity and competitiveness of the entire Japanese economy.
However, dealing with bad debts will also bring side effects, which will lead to the bankruptcy and unemployment of enterprises, and even lead to the danger of financial crisis. In other words, dealing with bad debts is a complex and arduous "systematic project", which not only urges banks to resume their financial intermediary functions, but also urges enterprises to improve their capital efficiency, and also constructs a "safety net" to cope with various problems such as the inevitable increase in unemployment during the handling process. It seems that Japan still has a long way to go to get out of the shadow of "asset-liability depression".
Third, "civilization depression"
In the construction of industrialized civilization, Japan was successful after World War II. However, Japan has obviously fallen behind in the construction of information civilization. As the second largest economy in the world, Japan ranks 20th and 22nd in terms of personal computer and Internet penetration (according to the statistics of 1999). This "gap between the second place and the twentieth place" typically reflects the backward situation of Japan's informatization, indicating that there are serious institutional and strategic defects in Japan's transition from the successful foundation of industrialization to informatization and in adapting its existing economic and technological strength to the revolutionary changes of the present era.
The fundamental reason why Japan has been dragged down by the United States, Northern Europe and even some Asian countries in informatization is not technology, but the backwardness in "system reform" and "system innovation". That is, Japan lacks the motivation, vitality and strategy to actively promote reform, to reform an existing system that adapts to industrial civilization, and thus to form a new system that can adapt to information civilization through "creative destruction." As Japanese scholar Noguchi Yoshio said: "First of all, we need to know that its appearance is really bad for Japan. At least from the perspective of preserving the Japanese economic system, it is an' uninvited guest'. "
Information technologies such as computers and the Internet can provide extremely convenient tools for various dispersed economic entities to make independent decisions and exchange information with each other, so they are deeply compatible with the market economy system characterized by "independent decisions and frequent exchange of information among economic entities". Therefore, the closer a country is to the market economy model, the more likely it is to make full use of its achievements and realize economic prosperity by developing it. The sustained economic expansion of the United States in the 1990 s is an example. However, Japan's so-called "market economy" does not implement market principles in many aspects, and there are many non-market economic factors, many defects that are incompatible with it, and various outdated regulations aimed at "protecting backwardness". This system, which does not implement the market principle, has increasingly acute contradictions not only with the development trend of global economic integration and marketization, but also with the emerging IT revolution, which has become a shackle restricting the sustained economic development.
At present, although the Japanese government formulated the IT National Strategy and the IT Basic Law in June 5438 +2000 10, and indicated its determination to "catch up with the United States within five years" in the IT field; However, these strategies or bills still fail to touch the real system key, and still fail to make substantive breakthroughs in system reform and system innovation. The future economic strength will be the combination of industrialization and informatization, and the developed countries will be the combination of "industrial development" and "information development". Therefore, whether Japan can adapt to the requirements of the development of information civilization and really reform and adjust the economic system and structure that used to adapt to industrial civilization is a fundamental and important issue related to whether Japan can maintain its status as an economic power and a developed country in the future world.
Fourth, "the population structure is sluggish"
For Japan's economy and society, the problems of low birth rate and aging are more essential structural problems. However, in the structural reform plans and policies of the Japanese government, this reform topic, which touches on deeper social and awareness issues, is often ignored.
The aging of population structure is a common phenomenon in western developed countries. However, the characteristic of Japan is that aging is not only rapid, but also accompanied by "fewer children" (low birth rate). At present, the average number of children born by Japanese women in their lifetime is only 1.35, and this trend of declining birthrate continues; The average number of children born by American women in their lifetime is 2.0 19, which is almost equal to the population replacement level. Compared with the aging of Japanese society, the United States will still be a relatively young country with a relatively high birth rate and a relatively large number of immigrants. It is predicted that the total population of Japan will decrease in 2008 and will decrease by 14% by the middle of this century. The working-age population (15-64 years old) is now declining; The population in the 0-4 age group is 40% less than that in the 20-24 age group, which indicates that the number of students in Japan's education system will decrease sharply in the next 20 years, and there will be a shortage of young labor. On the other hand, in 2005, the proportion of the elderly over 65 will exceed 20% of the total population, and the proportion of the working population to the retired population will drop rapidly.
The decrease of labor force population may lead to stagnation or even decline of economic growth. Some experts predict that the Japanese labor force will decrease by about 0.5% every year. Even if the labor productivity can be expected to increase by 1.5%, the medium and long-term potential growth rate is only 1.0%. At the same time, as the resources of young employees needed by enterprises tend to decrease, the management will become even less innovative and enterprising, which is undoubtedly not conducive to maintaining the vitality of production and technological innovation, thus weakening the competitiveness of the whole enterprise. The aging of skilled workers may also lead to the loss of useful traditional technologies. Of course, aging not only affects the vitality of enterprises, but also has a negative impact on maintaining the vitality of the whole economy and society.
The aging of fewer children is another important reason for economic difficulties. With the increase of the proportion of the elderly population, social security expenditure such as pension and medical care has increased rapidly, and social security expenditure is the largest part of fiscal expenditure. It is estimated that if the current social security system is not reformed, by 2025, the proportion of social security expenditure to national income will be as high as 3 1%, which is equivalent to twice the proportion in the mid-1990s. Obviously, it is imperative to reform the current social security system. However, both the reform of the pension system and the reform of the medical fee system are major issues that touch the interests of the broad masses of the people, and they have to rely on increasing taxes to solve them fundamentally, which will cause people's worries about the future burden caused by the aging of the youngest children, which has curbed the current private consumption.
In the era of economic globalization, capital and goods can move freely across borders on a global scale, but countries have imposed various restrictions on the cross-border movement of labor. This contradictory policy is very prominent in Japan, which needs to rely on foreign immigrants to solve the shortage of young labor. As a nearly mono-ethnic country, Japan's "openness" in population is much lower than that of the United States and Europe, and its consciousness of absorbing immigrants is also very conservative (also related to the rise of nationalism to some extent). At present, the proportion of foreigners in Japan's total population is only about 1%, while Germany and France are 9% and 7% respectively. As for the United States, the new immigrants it accepted in the 1990s accounted for nearly half of the total number of new immigrants accepted by developed countries. The experience of the United States and Europe shows that immigrants can not only contribute to supply, but also generate new demand, which is also conducive to the rejuvenation of the population (the birth rate of immigrants is often high). Different cultures brought by immigrants are also an important factor to increase social vitality. However, at present, in Japan, the social knowledge about immigrants has not yet been formed, and conservative opinions are prevalent, so it is difficult to hope to introduce a large number of labor and talents from abroad.
Now Japanese people are talking about how to solve the problem of overall labor shortage by absorbing the elderly and women into the labor force, but the effect of this method will be limited, especially the vitality of young people is an irreplaceable resource after all. It has also been suggested that the rapid growth of the birth rate should be an urgent problem. However, in Japanese society where young men and women can freely choose their lifestyles and their per capita income has reached a high level, it may not be very effective to adopt "material incentives" to encourage women to have more children.
To sum up, Japan's economic depression is a "compound depression" caused by many factors. Therefore, it is impossible to overcome this depression only by relying on a single and partial policy; Japan's anti-depression policy must include both prosperity and reform measures, including both economic and political measures, including both domestic and foreign policies. The political power to formulate and implement this "package of countermeasures" may take a tortuous process of political differentiation and reorganization to form.