Russian color
During Yushchenko's administration, Ukraine spared no effort to join NATO. After the pro-Russian Yanukovych came to power, he suspended the signing of political and free trade agreements with the European Union, which led to the Ukrainian revolution and forced him to step down. After Zelensky took office, he sought to join NATO more actively, and even wrote the Ukrainian goal of joining NATO into the Constitution, which was also strongly opposed by Russia. The armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is inevitable because it cannot be resolved through consultation. Finally, on the special day of February 22, 2022, Putin announced the recognition of two newly established republics in eastern Ukraine and sent troops to "maintain stability".
On February 2 1, Russian president Vladimir Putin said in a national televised speech? Ukraine is not only a neighboring country, but also an inherent part of Russian history, culture and spiritual space. Some people interpret Putin's remarks as "the whole Ukraine has belonged to Russia since ancient times. On this basis, it is reasonable for Russia to occupy the whole of Ukraine. " This may also be an excuse for Russia to occupy more territory in Ukraine. On February 22nd, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov even questioned whether Ukraine had sovereign rights, saying that the Ukrainian government could not represent all the people on Ukrainian territory.
Three conjectures
Judging from the speeches of the Russian President and Foreign Minister, Russia's goal is not only two republics in eastern Ukraine, but also to let more Ukrainian regions follow the example of Crimea, Donetsk or Lugansk. ? I hereby declare that I fully support Ukraine's sovereign independence and territorial integrity, and the following map will not change my attitude.
The first guess is that the Ukrainian Zelensky government will step down, set up a pro-Russian or neutral government, and no longer seek to join NATO. NATO also promised that it would not expand eastward, and the territory of Ukraine would remain the status quo.
The second guess is that the territories of the People's Republic of Donetsk and the People's Republic of Lugansk have expanded to the whole Donetsk and Lugansk regions, joining Russia like Crimea.
The third conjecture is that Russia dismembered Ukraine, and Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk, Petrovsk, Zaporoge, Hellson, nikolayev and Odessa declared their independence on their own, established a new Russian People's Republic (or Ukrainian People's Republic) together with Donetsk and Lugansk, and joined Russia in a few years or through a referendum.
It is inevitable to be alienated and sanctioned.
Either way, Russia has violated the Ukrainian border defined in the Almaty Declaration and the requirement that Donbass region stay in Ukraine stipulated in the Minsk Agreement. As the five permanent members of the Security Council, Russia not only failed to maintain regional peace and stability, but also brazenly invaded a sovereign country, which was inevitably alienated and sanctioned by other countries. Russia will first assess the consequences of isolation and sanctions from other countries, and then decide which scheme to adopt to maximize its own interests.
Where do you think Ukraine will go in the future?