Keywords: 2007 world economy, economic forecast, economic situation analysis
The world economy continues to grow steadily and rapidly.
Since the second quarter of 2007, the world economic growth has declined due to the economic slowdown in the United States and the subprime mortgage problem. But overall, the world economy is still in a period of rapid growth. According to the data of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after getting rid of the economic recession caused by the bursting of the new economic bubble and entering a new round of growth cycle, the world economy will maintain a growth rate of more than 4% (calculated by PPP method, the same below) for five consecutive years, and the world economy is in a period of unprecedented high growth since the 1960s. According to the latest forecast in the World Economic Outlook published by IMF on June 5438+ 10, 2007, the world economic growth rate of IMF will be 5.2% IMF 2007 and 4.8% in 2008, and will continue to grow rapidly.
According to the IMF's autumn forecast, the economic growth rate of developed countries will be 2.5% and 2.2% in 2007 and 2008 respectively, and the economic growth rate of emerging markets and developing countries will be 8. 1% and 7.4% respectively, which are 0.6 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points higher than the spring report respectively, which is the main reason for the upward adjustment of world economic growth. Among the developed economies, the economic growth forecast of the United States has been greatly lowered, and the economic growth rate in 2007 and 2008 will be 1.9%, which is 0.3 and 0.9 percentage points lower than the spring report respectively. Driven by the BRIC countries, the economic growth of developing countries, as well as the substantial economic growth of countries in transition and even some countries such as the Middle East and Latin America, is increasingly expanding the pace of economic growth with developed countries. In 2007 and 2008, the economic growth rate of developing countries in Asia increased from 8.8% and 8.4% to 9.8% and 8.8% respectively. The economic growth forecasts of Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the Western Hemisphere, including China, Indian and Russian, have been raised to varying degrees. With the further expansion of economic scale, the contribution of these countries to world economic growth has greatly increased.
Affected by the cooling of the real estate market, American economic growth began to slow down obviously in the second quarter of 2006. In the first and second quarters of 2007, the annual economic growth of the United States was 0.6% and 3.8% respectively. Although the economic growth in the second quarter was higher than expected, it mainly benefited from private domestic investment and export growth, while the contribution of personal consumption expenditure dropped sharply, which became the biggest worry to maintain stable economic growth. The mortgage crisis began to spread throughout the financial market. The decline in housing investment makes the growth of fixed assets investment weak, and may affect the related employment demand, credit and consumption of residents. If so, it will affect the real economy and the negative impact on economic growth will expand. Although there is little hope that the real estate market will recover soon, the decline in house prices is limited, indicating that supply and demand are not completely unbalanced and will not collapse. At the same time, the impact of high energy prices on the US economy is gradually weakening, and inflationary pressure is moderate. At present, the focus of the Fed's regulatory policy has shifted to financial markets. As long as it is properly regulated, the US economy will continue to maintain a moderate growth trend.
Although the subprime mortgage risk has also spread to the European Union, Japan and other countries and regions, the slowdown in economic growth in the United States has not seriously affected economic growth. Unlike in the past, when economic growth was mainly driven by exports, the main driving forces of economic growth in the euro zone were investment and private consumption. At the same time, the employment in the euro zone has continued to improve, the unemployment rate has dropped, and the inflation rate has been lower than the 2% target set by the European Central Bank for several months. In the second quarter of 2007, the economic growth rate in the euro zone slowed down unexpectedly and obviously, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.3%, far lower than the 0.7% in the first quarter, which is the lowest growth rate since the beginning of 2005, indicating that the current economic growth cycle in the euro zone has peaked. In 2007 and 2008, the economic growth rate of the euro zone is expected to be 2.5% and 2. 1%, and major countries such as Germany, France and Italy continue to maintain rapid growth.
Since 2006, thanks to strong regional and domestic demand, Japan's economic growth has been unexpected. The deflationary pressure that has caused Japan's economy to slump for more than 10 years is being alleviated. But this is still a risk to Japan's economic recovery. Since 2007, the slowdown in economic growth has been partly due to the weakening of private consumption. Due to the increase in exports, the income of enterprises has remained at a high level, and the demand for equipment investment is still strong. In addition, due to the slow growth of personal income and good personal consumption, the economic situation is still basically stable. Japan's economic growth rate in 2007 and 2008 is expected to be 2.0% and 1.7%.
Although the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis has increased the uncertainty of the world economic prospect, the basic factors supporting the world economic growth still exist, and steady and rapid development is still the basic feature of the world economy.
First of all, the basic conditions supporting the rapid growth of the world economy have not changed. The rapid growth of the world economy since 2003 stems from the continuous improvement of the basic conditions supporting growth, and the technological progress with information and communication technology as the core has improved the growth potential of the world economy. Economic globalization makes the traditional manufacturing industry transfer to developing countries, and advanced technology and management experience spread to developing countries, which improves the labor productivity of developing countries. Developed countries have passed the difficult stage of hollowing out industries in the initial stage of industrial transfer, and made breakthroughs in industrial structure adjustment. High value-added industries such as information, biology, new materials, new energy, environmental protection, aerospace and high-end service industries such as finance are developing rapidly, and developing countries and developed countries are in a "win-win" situation in the process of globalization.
Secondly, the monetary policy has been adjusted from moderately tight to neutral loose. The macro-control measures of various countries are becoming more and more mature. Whether in developed or developing countries, macro-control policies are more flexible and pragmatic, and can be actively adjusted according to changes in the economic situation, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the world economy. Since August 2008, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have rapidly injected a large amount of liquidity into the market to solve the liquidity shortage caused by subprime loans and stabilize the financial market. The United States also reduced the discount rate and the federal benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point. American monetary policy is the vane of global monetary policy. Although the U.S. interest rate cut does not mean that other countries will immediately follow the U.S. interest rate cut, the global interest rate hike cycle is coming to an end, and the global monetary policy has begun to be adjusted from moderately tight to neutral or neutral loose, which is conducive to stabilizing the financial market, stimulating investment and promoting economic growth.
Third, the subprime mortgage crisis has increased the potential risks in economic operation, but it will not seriously endanger the world economy. It is estimated that the total value of subprime loans is about 750 billion ~ 1.2 trillion US dollars. Through mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and debt-backed bonds (CDO), most subprime loans are securitized and held by funds and banks in the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries, and the risks are scattered all over the world. According to the current situation of subprime mortgage default, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke estimated that the loan loss was about 50 billion US dollars to 654.38+000 billion US dollars, and Moody's estimated that the loss was 654.38+065.438+03 billion US dollars. Of course, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis will spread from the financial sector to the physical sector, and the continuous decline in real estate prices will also affect the growth of American consumption and lead to the possibility of the subprime mortgage problem worsening.
Second, the growth of world trade has slowed down at a high level.
In 2006, the global trade in goods reached 1 1.9 trillion US dollars, almost twice that of 2002. The growth rate of world trade is higher than that of world economy, which makes the proportion of world trade in global GDP continue to rise, and the correlation between trade development and economic growth is further enhanced. On the one hand, economic globalization makes the traditional manufacturing industry transfer to developing countries, and the progress of science and technology, the adjustment of industrial structure, the rapid development of multinational corporations and the improvement of the world trade system have brought great impetus to the development of world trade. Especially since China joined the WTO, the growth of foreign trade has continued to exceed expectations, which has effectively promoted the development of world trade. On the other hand, the sustained and rapid growth of the world economy has expanded the trade demand. The rapid development of the world economy, especially the expanding domestic demand of developed countries, is the fundamental driving force to promote the development of international trade. In recent years, the sustained and rapid growth of the world economy, especially the healthy development of major developed economies such as the United States, Japan, Europe and Australia, has injected vitality into the growth of international trade.
Since 2007, although the overall growth rate of the world economy is higher than expected, the growth of developed economies is gradually slowing down, which will slow down the demand growth of some countries, and this trend is expected to continue in 2008. From the perspective of import demand, in 2006, the import growth rate of goods denominated in US dollars was 10.7%, which continued to be an important driving force for the growth of world trade. However, since 2007, the import growth of the United States has obviously slowed down, with an increase of only 4.3% in the first half of the year, 4.8% in July and 2.4% in August respectively. In the first and second quarters of 2007, the euro zone's imports increased by 5.4% and 4. 1% respectively, and increased by 1 1.7% in July, which was also significantly slower than the growth of 13.4% in 2006. According to the IMF's forecast, world trade will increase by 6.3% and 6.9% in 2007 and 2008, which is 0.9 and 0.8 percentage points lower than the spring forecast, and the growth rate is much lower than the 9.3% growth of world trade in 2006.
The price of products in the international market is still high.
Driven by the sustained and rapid growth of the world economy, the demand in the international market is strong, and the market demand for primary products such as raw materials and energy has greatly increased. Commodity prices in the international market have been on the rise since they bottomed out in 2002. The main reasons for the rise in commodity prices in the international market in recent years are as follows. First, output or supply growth is slower than demand growth. The rapid growth of American economy makes the housing market prosperous, which leads to an increase in demand for basic materials such as building materials. The demand for coal, non-ferrous metals and petrochemical products in Asia, especially in China, has also increased significantly since 2003, which has also supported the price increase of these commodities. Secondly, stimulated and influenced by some temporary unexpected factors, such as strikes, production accidents, political situation, etc., the market is worried about the reduction or interruption of supply, and the price has soared repeatedly, which has been hovering at a high level. Third, the price increase of raw materials or upstream products has promoted and supported the price increase of semi-finished products, finished products or downstream products to a certain extent. Fourth, the weakening of the US dollar exchange rate has led to an increase in commodity prices in US dollars.
Since 2007, except in August, the prices of primary products in the international market have continued to rise month by month. According to the data of the World Bank, the price of primary products in the international market in September 2007 increased by 6.0% compared with that in August, by 65,438+09.2% compared with that in February 2006, and by 65,438+08.0% compared with that in February 2006. Among them, the price of non-energy products increased by 0.2% compared with August, up by12.0% year-on-year; The price of energy products increased by 8.6% compared with August and 22.5% year-on-year. At the same time, the structural upward trend of primary product prices in the international market is more obvious. Before 2006, the price trend of some products with large increase was relatively stable, while the prices of some foods, beverages, metal minerals, energy and so on rose sharply. Among agricultural products, the prices of fish, olive oil and sugar fell, while the prices of major agricultural products such as wheat, corn, barley, soybean, palm oil, coconut oil and wool all rose by more than 30%~70% by the end of September, while the prices of coffee, rubber and other products rose by nearly 20% in the same period. It is worth noting that the prices of rice, some oils, pork, fish, sugar, beverages, wood, cotton and leather are still at a low level. On the whole, the prices of metal and mineral products have been at a high level, among which the prices of lead, tin and uranium have risen sharply, while the prices of copper and iron ore, which were relatively high in the previous period, have risen steadily, while the prices of aluminum, zinc and nickel have fallen. In recent years, energy prices have risen the most, especially crude oil. From June to September, the prices of crude oil and coal increased by 24. 1% and 4 1.2% respectively, while the price of natural gas decreased by 2.4%. Since the second half of 2007, international oil prices have been rising all the way, constantly hitting record highs. By the close of 10 and 16, the crude oil futures price in new york hit an intraday high of $87.97/barrel, the highest price in 22 years (see figure 1). The multiple factors such as the tense situation in the Middle East, tight supply, high demand expectation and the depreciation of the US dollar are the supporting forces for oil prices to continue to hit new highs.