China's $25 billion was exchanged for Russian crude oil supply of 300 million tons in 20 years.
Business Daily reporter Liu Lianying
Due to the deficit crisis faced by the Russian government and the financing difficulties of Russian oil companies, the agreement of "25 billion US dollars loan for 20 years and 300 million tons of crude oil supply" originally scheduled for next month ended early on Tuesday. This news became an important topic in the market yesterday. The insiders believe that this is a win-win cooperation from many aspects such as politics, economy and energy security. With its abundant foreign exchange reserves, China is becoming the biggest buyer of energy assets in the financial crisis.
sign an agreement
China-Russia energy dialogue reached a formal agreement
On February 17, the third Sino-Russian energy dialogue held in Beijing reached an agreement on the details of the Sino-Russian "loan-for-oil" contract and signed a formal agreement.
China Petroleum (12.8 1, 0.05, 0.39%) Gas Group recently signed long-term crude oil trade agreements with Rosneft and Russian National Petroleum Pipeline Transportation Company respectively, and signed an agreement with Russian National Petroleum Pipeline Transportation Company on the design, construction and operation of the pipeline from Skovorodino to the border of China. China National Development Bank also signed loan agreements with Rosneft and Russian National Oil Pipeline Transportation Company respectively.
According to the statement published on the official website of the Russian National Oil Pipeline Transportation Company, in the next 20 years, Russia will export150,000 tons of oil to China every year on the basis of the loan Russia obtained from China. Relevant persons of PetroChina confirmed this news to Xinhua News Agency.
At the same time, the Russian national oil pipeline transportation company said that the pipeline from Skovorodino, Russia to the border of China will start construction in 2009 and be put into production in 20 10. The construction of the pipeline will be carried out simultaneously with the first phase of the Russian Far East crude oil pipeline.
The signing of the Sino-Russian crude oil pipeline agreement is based on the principle agreement of China branch line of Russian Far East crude oil pipeline signed by PetroChina and Russian National Petroleum Pipeline Transportation Company last year. According to the agreement in principle, the two sides will jointly build and operate the Sino-Russian crude oil pipeline from Skovorodino, the Russian Far East city, to Mohe, the border city of China, on the basis of the first phase of the Russian Far East crude oil pipeline project. The Sino-Russian crude oil pipeline is about 70 kilometers long in Russia and 960 kilometers long in China.
Russian interests
Support economic revitalization and energy strategy
A lot of money is needed to stabilize the national finance.
The agreement signed this time has determined many details. The interest rate problem that hindered the negotiations before was finally determined as a fixed interest rate of 6%; At the same time, Russia used oil as collateral to repay the loan by supplying oil. From 20 1 1 to 2030, a total of 300 million tons of oil will be supplied to China through pipelines according to the annual scale of150,000 tons. Oil price is based on the price of Russian oil transported to Nakhotka Port, which moves with the market. At present, the annual Russian oil supply to China by rail is not affected by this agreement, and will increase to150,000 tons in the future. In addition, as part of Sino-Russian energy cooperation, the two sides also signed cooperation agreements including nuclear energy, electric power and mineral development.
"Obviously, a long-term loan of $25 billion will bring great benefits to Russia." China Investment Consulting pointed out that after the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the global stock market plummeted, and Russia once became the "safe island" of the world economy. However, under the international financial crisis, it is difficult for Russia to be immune. Since then, a large amount of foreign capital has flowed out of Russia, which has reduced Russia's international reserves by 60 billion US dollars, and several major oil companies have fallen into debt crisis. Therefore, a large amount of capital needs to be injected to stabilize Russia's national financial situation and alleviate the capital shortage of large oil and gas companies. In the past two years, due to strategic needs, several major Russian oil companies have seized resources everywhere in Europe, Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America, and their expansion momentum is fierce. This kind of expansion lacks the support of its own funds, and it has to borrow a lot of short-term debts from the west. The debts due at the end of this year alone are as high as 80 billion US dollars. In addition, Russian oil and gas companies are also facing the problem of expanding reproduction. In recent years, their investment in domestic oil and gas resources exploration and development is obviously insufficient, but to ensure the oil supply to Europe and Asia at the same time, it is necessary to expand exploration and development, which also requires a lot of imported funds.
Dependence on the European market has been greatly reduced.
China Investment Consulting pointed out that on the other hand, Russia is formulating an energy strategy before 2030. Russia and Europe depend on each other on the issue of oil and gas supply, which is the weakness of both Europe and Russia. If the eastern market is opened up, it will not only solve the financial problem of economic development and provide support for Russia's economic revitalization, but also help prevent regional separatism and safeguard Russia's national unity. In terms of energy export, Russia's dependence on the European market can be greatly reduced. If the Far East oil and gas pipeline has been opened, Russia's attitude towards western pressure may become tougher. And China's big market is just what they need.
China interests
Every 12 USD loan is exchanged for 1 barrel crude oil supply.
"This agreement should be more precisely' oil for loans'. This is a question of who is more active, because Russia needs funds more now. " Dong Xiucheng, deputy dean of the School of Business Administration of Youshi University in China, believes that before the international financial crisis, China had an oil trade agreement with Russia. The term of the last agreement is 10 year, that is, to supply 10 million tons of oil to China every year before 20 10 year. So the biggest difference in this agreement is that "we have exchanged loans for 20 years of oil supply." Dong Xiu Cheng said.
According to some experts' calculation, if 1 ton of crude oil is equivalent to 7 barrels, 25 billion US dollars of loans will be exchanged for 2 1 100 million barrels of crude oil supply, and the average loan amount per barrel is about 12 US dollars, that is, every 12 US dollar of loans will be exchanged for 1 barrel of crude oil supply.
Resist risks and help energy security
According to this agreement, China will get an average of 300,000 barrels of crude oil a day in the next 20 years. Last year, China imported more than 3 million barrels of crude oil on average, which means that Russian oil supply to China will account for about 10% of the current daily crude oil imports. It is understood that this new oil supply agreement is based on the original export of oil to China through other channels (including the railway crossing Mongolia). In 2008, Russia exported116400 tons of crude oil to China, equivalent to 233,000 barrels per day, which was nearly 20% lower than that in 2007.
"The agreement clearly stipulates that the price of oil supply to China will go with the market in the past 20 years, so China has not obtained low-priced oil resources. However, from the perspective of energy security, we can become more calm than now. " Dong Xiucheng believes that due to the serious shortage of strategic oil reserves in China, this oil supply agreement can not control the price, but it has achieved certain energy security in the era of energy scarcity.
China Investment Consulting also pointed out that under the current international financial crisis, it is much better for China to convert some US dollar assets into resource assets such as oil and gas by changing loans into oil, which is a wise choice to solve the diversification of foreign exchange reserves and resist financial risks.
The smooth flow of oil pipelines is of great significance.
It is noteworthy that this agreement also liberalized the Russian oil pipeline to China.
In fact, Sino-Russian negotiations on cross-border crude oil pipelines have been going on for as long as 10 years, but there has been no result. One of the most fundamental reasons is that the global demand for Russian oil is strong, and Russian oil companies can easily obtain credit. However, the sudden international financial crisis and the decline in global demand have turned the oil industry into a buyer's market.
Industry commentators pointed out that Russia wants to ensure the source of tourists to balance its dependence on the Western European market. In 2008, Russian crude oil output 10 decreased for the first time in years. The loan from China National Development Bank will enable Russian oil companies to invest in relatively undeveloped oil fields and refineries in eastern Siberia, and part of the funds will also be used to build oil pipelines from Siberian oil fields to China refineries. As the second largest oil consumer in the world after the United States, China has been eager to get more Russian oil to reduce its dependence on Middle East oil. About half of China's oil consumption needs to be met by imports, and many of them need to be transported by strategically fragile sea routes. Such an oil pipeline agreement will provide China with a safer and more stable oil supply channel.
CIC consultants believe that from the perspective of energy strategy, China's energy demand is booming, and it is necessary to expand overseas energy supply. The China branch of the Far East Pipeline, which will be completed this year, is the second onshore oil pipeline in China, with an annual oil transportation capacity of 6,543,800 tons, which is undoubtedly of great significance to China's energy security.
Extension analysis
The financial crisis has made China the biggest buyer of energy assets.
"China has abundant foreign exchange reserves, while Russia is rich in oil resources. The cooperation between the two is not unexpected. " An energy industry analyst said. It is worth noting that in recent weeks, China has signed several overseas resource agreements. First, Chinalco took a stake in Rio Tinto for US$ 654.38+09.5 billion, and then Minmetals Group wanted to acquire Australian mineral resources for US$ 654.38+07 billion. Although it has not been finally approved, China's actions have begun to attract the attention of governments around the world.
While most other major economies are in recession, China has launched a massive attack with relatively abundant financial resources. Undoubtedly, these measures are expected to enhance China's position in the global commodity industry. This international financial crisis has brought an excellent opportunity to China, and it has also made the negotiations on the acquisition of various energy assets go faster and smoother.
Some foreign commentators have pointed out that although the current global economic crisis has also hit China, China's economy continues to grow-the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 9% last year, lower than 13% in 2007. According to the government of China, in the most populous country in the world, the process of urbanization and industrialization continues, which means that China's demand for energy and raw materials will greatly increase. Compared with many other international banks, China financial institutions are relatively less poisoned by non-performing assets, so they can provide financial support for many large-scale transactions.