Keywords: Sanming; Regional logistics; Economic development; empirical analysis
Modern logistics is known as an "accelerator" for a country or region to promote economic development. Accelerating the close combination of logistics service function and regional economic development will certainly promote regional division of labor and cooperation, enhance regional economic competitiveness and promote the rapid economic development of Sanming. Therefore, we should further understand the prominent role of modern logistics in Sanming's economic development, make use of the development space of modern logistics, grasp the development quality of modern logistics, make correct decisions, promote the future development of modern logistics, and give full play to its remarkable role in Sanming's economic development.
I. Selection of research indicators and data
According to the research of modern logistics measurement indicators in relevant literature, considering that it is difficult to find relevant professional data in the logistics industry at present, this paper selects the following indicators for related research: (1) Logistics scale indicators: the total social transportation can approximately represent the social logistics scale, that is, the size of the total logistics. This paper selects the cargo turnover (100 million kilometers) as an index, which basically reflects the social demand for transportation and indirectly reflects the approximate scale of logistics demand in this area.
(2) Indicators of national economic development level: Considering the availability and validity of data and the feasibility of research, this paper chooses gross domestic product (GDP) as an important indicator to measure the level of national economic development.
The original data of this paper is taken from Sanming Statistical Yearbook 20 10. The sample interval of the time series of GDP and cargo turnover is 199 1~20 10 years, with 20 sample values. Therefore, we refer to GDP data and cargo turnover as LGDP and LLV respectively.
Second, empirical analysis.
The study of 1. stationarity test shows that most time series obtained by first-order difference transformation of variables show stationarity. ADF test statistics are T statistics proposed by Dicky and Fulle in 1976 (at this time, T statistics are called τ statistics). If the statistical value of t is less than the critical value under the condition that there is no difference in the sequence, the sequence has no unit root, and the zero hypothesis is rejected, and the sequence is considered to be a stable I(0) sequence. If the statistical value of t is greater than the critical value and there is no difference in the sequence, the sequence has a unit root, so the zero hypothesis cannot be rejected and the sequence is considered unstable.
If the sequence rejects the null hypothesis after the first difference, it is considered to be an unstable I( 1) sequence with unit roots. And so on. Therefore, this paper uses ADF method to test the unit root of Sanming's gross domestic product (LGDP) and logistics scale (LLV) time series respectively, and analyzes their stability.
See table 1 for the inspection results of logistics scales in Sanming area.
Table 1 unit root test table of LLV time series From table1,it can be seen that LLV time series has unit roots at 5% significance level and is a non-stationary series. Its second-order difference sequence has no unit root at 5% significance level and is a stationary sequence. Namely LLV②. At the same time, according to the analysis of LGDP, it can be seen that LGDP time series has a unit root at the level of 5% significance, which is a non-stationary series. The second-order difference sequence has no unit root at the significance level of 1% and is a stationary sequence. Namely lgdp ~ I (2). At the same time, as can be seen from the table, DW values are all around 2, which eliminates the autocorrelation between variables.
2. Cointegration test
The economic significance of cointegration lies in two variables. Although they have their own long-term fluctuation laws, if they are (d, d) order cointegration, there is a long-term stable proportional relationship between them. Although these variables may deviate from the equilibrium position in the short term, they will continue to return to equilibrium under the action of some economic forces. After preliminary analysis, the relationship between logistics industry and national economy in Sanming area conforms to this long-term balanced co-integration relationship.
Through the above analysis, we can draw the following conclusions: LGDP and LLV time series are unitary of the same order and both are unitary of the second order. Therefore, we use OLS method to make regression and model estimation with LLV as the explained variable and LGDP as the explanatory variable. The short-term relationship between LLV and LGDP is as follows: LLV = 0.04912 GDP+118.5216 (1) (t =15.47823/kloc-). After adjustment, R2=0.926235, DW=0.732052 and F=239.5757 are cointegration tests, and ADF test is still used to test the singularity of the residual. Therefore, the estimated residual of the equation is tested by unit root, and the items with no difference, no intercept and no trend are selected for testing. The ADF value of residual unit root test is -2.947230, which is less than the critical value -2.7 158 at the significance level of 1%, indicating that there is no unit root at the confidence level of 99%, and there is a co-integration relationship between them.
Observing the equation (1), we can see that the fitting degree (R2) of the equation T > is very high, and the statistical value of the estimation coefficient T is also very ideal (T >; 2), but DW=0.732052, which shows that there is a high autocorrelation between variables. Therefore, autocorrelation must be eliminated. Phillips and Rollitan suggested using a dynamic distributed lag model to estimate the long-term equilibrium relationship. According to the method from general to special, the following autoregressive distributed lag model (ADL) is estimated: the determinable coefficient of regression equation (4) is very high, the t statistics of regression coefficients are all ideal, and the regression equation as a whole passes the F test; The value of DW is close to 2, which indicates that the autocorrelation is eliminated. Therefore, Equation (4) can be considered as a long-term stable relationship between LLV and LGDP. According to the formula of long-term multiplier and constant term, it can be calculated as follows: K0=0.052K 1=0.48 1. Therefore, the long-term equilibrium equation can be written as: LLV = 0.48 1 GDP+0.052(5). 3. Establish an error correction model based on co-integration analysis. If two variables are co-integrated, but in the short term, these variables can be unbalanced, and the disturbance term is an equilibrium error. The dynamic structure of the short-term imbalance between these two variables can be described by the error correction model (ECM).
1987, Engel and Granger put forward the "Granger expression theorem", thinking that if there is a cointegration relationship between two variables, an error correction model can be established.
The error correction model combines the long-term stable relationship with the short-term dynamic fluctuation characteristics in one model, which not only solves the problem that the traditional econometric model ignores pseudo-regression, but also overcomes the deficiency that the difference model loses a lot of lateral variable information.
Taking the stable residual sequence ECM of equation (4) as the error correction term, the following error correction model is established: LLV = β 0+β1GDP+yet-1+μ t = 4.780690+0.0317lgdp-1.30.
The error correction model shows that the development of national economy in Sanming area plays a very important role in logistics industry in both short and long term.
Three. conclusion and suggestion
Through empirical analysis, it can be seen from the model analysis that there is a long-term balanced relationship between the development of modern logistics industry in Sanming and the national economy, which shows that the modern logistics industry in Sanming has made great progress, but it has not formed a certain scale, and the promotion of modern logistics industry to economic development is not obvious. Because the development of modern logistics industry in Sanming area is driven by economy, the development of modern logistics industry is highly dependent on the development of national economy. The ECM coefficient of the error correction model is 1.355480, which shows that the development of national economy in Sanming has a significant impact on the development of logistics industry in a short period of time.
Therefore, in order to promote the development of the logistics industry in Sanming, based on the above research results, the following suggestions are put forward: (1) Sanming should vigorously develop the national economy and promote the development of the logistics industry, so as to realize the rapid development of the logistics industry and promote the economic development in Sanming.
(2) Under the trend of economic globalization, vigorously cultivate and tap a large number of logistics needs in Sanming, and take this as the primary task of the current development of Sanming's logistics industry.
(3) In the post-financial crisis economic background, it is necessary to integrate a large number of logistics resources, form an efficient logistics service network, guide large enterprises to effectively outsource logistics business, focus on developing third-party logistics, and improve logistics efficiency.
(4) Improve the basic platform system of logistics industry, including transportation infrastructure and logistics information facilities, realize the informationization of logistics development, and then promote the sound and rapid development of Sanming economy.
(5) Vigorously develop logistics bases and integrated logistics centers to realize the scale effect of modern logistics industry. The construction of comprehensive logistics parks such as Northwest Fujian Logistics Park and Sanming City Logistics Park in Sanming further promoted the development of regional logistics integration in Sanming, thus realizing the scale benefits of sustainable economic development in Sanming.
(6) Strengthen cooperation with surrounding areas and promote economic exchanges. Sanming region should strengthen its economic cooperation with neighboring provinces and cities and the economic zone on the west side of the Taiwan Strait, so as to realize the development of regional logistics in Sanming region to promote the development of regional economy, and then promote the economic development of neighboring economic cooperation zones and realize the all-round economic development.