China's careful prediction of changes in the surrounding international environment is very important for maintaining regional peace and concentrating on economic development in the coming period. In recent years, some disturbing events have taken place in the surrounding areas of our country. For example, India and Pakistan ignore international public opinion and oppose the development of nuclear weapons; The United States continues to pursue the policy of military alliance in Asia, trying to establish a TMD system that may undermine the balance of regional military power; Asian countries have signs of an arms race; Separatism and international terrorism have brought serious challenges to some countries; Wait a minute. While being aware of these threats to peace and security, we must also observe the distribution of international power relations around us from a more comprehensive perspective, and observe whether the ways in which countries confirm and realize their national interests have changed, so as to judge the surrounding environment in the next century. One of the new changes in the international environment is that a multipolar power structure is being formed around China. This is not the product of multipolarization in the world, but a regional structure. Due to the stagnation and low-speed development of Japan's economy, the gap between Japan and other Asian forces is narrowing. At the same time, Japan's willingness to play a role in the political and security fields is even stronger. Russia's economy has stabilized after experiencing a serious recession. With Putin's election, its comprehensive strength has entered a recovery period. Although the integration process of ASEAN has been hit by the financial crisis, it has not been fundamentally hit, and the economic, social and political cooperation among ASEAN countries is still strengthening and expanding. The emergence of the new economy has improved India's economic situation. With the possession of nuclear weapons, India's military deterrence continues to increase. India's desire to play the role of a big country in Asia has obviously increased. China's comprehensive national strength continues to increase, and its position in regional and international relations has been strengthened. The United States is the only superpower in the world, and this position supports its dominant position in Asia. But the United States is a non-Asian country, and its power is scattered all over the world. Its power distribution in Asia is limited by these two factors. The multi-level structure composed of China, Japan, the United States, Russia, ASEAN and India will be a relatively stable and balanced structure. In the foreseeable period, it is impossible for any pole to gain an advantage in this region alone. In the multipolar equilibrium structure, the change and polarization of the alliance are the main reasons for instability. In the foreseeable future, the US-Japan alliance will remain stable, but its role will be restricted by the strategic relationship between China and Russia, and it will not be unconditionally supported by ASEAN and India. No interests will prompt India and ASEAN to abandon their long-term independent and neutral foreign policy and get involved in the confrontation between the United States and China and Russia. China is the fastest growing country in the region, China will continue to pursue an independent foreign policy of peace, and China will contribute to the stability of this structure. The stability of this multipolar structure also lies in that even the superpower America can't change it. The distribution of American power in Asia can maintain this relatively stable structure, but if we want to change this structure and adopt a policy of "containment" against China, the cost will be unbearable and will far exceed its benefits. The United States will continue to seek "leadership" status in Asia, but if it wants to establish unipolar hegemony, it will inevitably be resisted by other forces jointly or separately. It should be pointed out that the stability of the multipolar power balance around China will be affected by the subregional power and power relations. For example, South Korea and North Korea are important forces for sub-regional balance in Northeast Asia; Pakistan and Thailand are important forces in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Indonesia and Vietnam may play an important role in Southeast Asia. Kazakhstan and Afghanistan may play an important role in Central Asia. These forces not only play an important role in the sub-regional balance, but also pose complex constraints on China and other big countries, thus affecting the stability of the multi-polar structure in Asia. These situations show that the balance of power itself cannot prevent the occurrence of various unstable factors. Another new change in the international environment is that the international multilateral system will become an important way to maintain peace and stability in the surrounding areas. The existence of multipolar pattern does not mean that the surrounding environment of China is safe. The pursuit of unilateral economic and political interests by hegemonic countries and disorderly competition between the two poles will cause serious damage to the security around China. In addition, other disorderly factors may include territorial disputes and arms races in neighboring countries, cross-border terrorism and separatist activities by non-state actors, or a large number of refugees in some countries due to poverty or other reasons. If these disorderly competitions cannot be stopped and controlled in time, it will be difficult to maintain peace and stability around China. The economic interdependence of Asian countries is deepening, and two-thirds of the foreign trade of East Asian countries is completed within the region. This interest is the basic driving force for their cooperation in the next century. The technological revolution in the field of information and transportation is removing geographical barriers among Asian countries, providing them with the means to communicate with each other and strengthen trust. Asian countries also have a historical tradition of opposing foreign interference and maintaining independence. They cherish their own culture and values. This trend of cultural diversity is the basis of their mutual understanding and compromise. Therefore, after entering the 2 1 century, China and neighboring countries will make greater efforts to seek cooperation and make use of international institutions (that is, various international organizations and institutions) to jointly safeguard the environment of peace, stability and development. In addition to the United Nations and its affiliated institutions, China and its neighboring countries also have some important international multilateral systems, such as Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN Regional Forum, post-ASEAN ministerial meeting, ASEAN plus China, Japan and South Korea meeting, four-party talks on North Korea, the "Shanghai Five" mechanism, and Eurasian summit. These international multilateral systems contain different members, play different roles in different fields, have different priority issues, and their decisions or understandings have different binding force, but their common feature is to promote relevant countries to understand their interests and benefit from cooperation, mutual understanding and mutual accommodation. In the economic and social fields, these mechanisms are already playing a very positive role. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) is promoting trade liberalization, which has greatly strengthened economic cooperation among Asian countries. At the meeting of finance ministers of ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea held in Chiang Mai, Thailand in early May this year, all parties unanimously agreed to establish an Asian currency protection mechanism to avoid the recurrence of a financial crisis that caused a serious impact. This shows that the cooperation of Asian countries has expanded from trade to financial and monetary fields. In terms of security, due to the joint efforts of Asian countries, the United Nations peacekeeping operation in Cambodia has achieved remarkable success. At the same time, some international multilateral systems have played an active role in strengthening mutual trust measures and combating terrorism and separatist activities. In April this year, the defense ministers of the "Shanghai Five" met, and the ministers decided to take collective action to prevent international terrorism, radical separatism and religious extremism from threatening the border areas of the five countries. After entering the new century, as long as all countries can regard peace as the basic principle of cooperation and abandon the cold war mentality, the international multilateral system can play an important role in resolving territorial disputes, controlling the arms race, establishing regional collective security mechanisms, and preventing the proliferation of weapons. At the beginning of the new century, the ASEAN Regional Forum may develop into a multilateral security cooperation system in East Asia. In Central Asia, the expanded "Shanghai Five" mechanism may also play a similar role. But a multilateral system that can cover all countries in East Asia, South Asia and Central Asia is temporarily impossible. There are some regional security problems around China. These problems include Kashmir issue, Korean Peninsula issue and Afghan civil war, all of which have the background of international factors to varying degrees. If these problems are not handled properly, they may lead to major conflicts and pose a serious threat to China's security. However, how to give full play to the role of the international multilateral system and seek to finally solve or alleviate its tension has not been fully paid attention by the countries concerned. For example, India has always refused international organizations to mediate the Kashmir conflict, which not only delayed the settlement of this issue for a long time, but also made it more complicated. After India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons, the continuation of the conflict will be even more dangerous. China and other countries should exert further influence on India and Pakistan, seek a mutually acceptable solution through mediation, and realize that any idea imposed on others will not work. This should also be the basic criterion for solving international security problems in the Asia-Pacific region in the next century. It can be predicted that international cooperation through the international system will be an important manifestation of international relations in the next century, but there is still the problem of how to dominate the international system. China is a big country in Asia, and China can and should play a leading role in the international system. As long as we adhere to the basic principles of the international system, such as respect for sovereignty, equality among countries, mutual benefit and non-interference in internal affairs, China's active participation in international system activities will not only be positively evaluated by most neighboring countries, but also have positive interaction. This will become an important means for China to actively influence the surrounding international environment. Although the significance of the international system is important, it cannot solve all problems, and its effectiveness will not expand rapidly in the short term. Therefore, further strengthening China's comprehensive national strength and ensuring that the multipolar pattern in the surrounding areas will not change fundamentally will be the basic means to maintain China's peaceful and stable international environment. China's overall revival and prosperity in the next century will be promising if it continuously strengthens its comprehensive national strength and actively participates in the international system.