On February 6, 2006, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development issued the White Paper on High-tech Development in Russia and Abroad. According to the instructions of Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, the white paper was jointly drafted by the Ministry of Economic Development, the National Higher University of Economics, the National Center for Technology and Creativity, authoritative ministries and commissions, and head enterprises. The present situation and development trend of artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, 5G network, quantum computing, quantum communication, distributed account book technology, electric energy transmission and distributed smart energy system technology, electric energy storage system manufacturing technology, new materials and new materials technology, and future space system *** 10 are studied, and the gap, advantages and disadvantages and future risks between Russia and leading countries in these fields are analyzed. In view of the state secrets involved, some contents in the development direction of 16 formulated by the Russian government for large enterprises, such as the manufacture of new generation microelectronics and electronic components and quantum sensors, have not been included in the white paper.
artificial intelligence
From 20 15 to 20 19, the number of patent applications related to artificial intelligence in the world increased from 22,500 to 63,700. The number of applications submitted by Russian applicants every year is about 100~ 140. In the total number of scientific papers published in the field of artificial intelligence, the proportion of Russian authors is1.5% (data in 2020). China and the United States lead in the number of patents and papers published.
In 20021year, the U.S. government spent $65,438.05 billion on research and invention in the field of artificial intelligence, which will increase to $32 billion by 2026. However, the main development direction of artificial intelligence technology is controlled by large digital groups in the United States: Amazon (with an investment of $42.7 billion in 2020), Alphabet ($27.6 billion), Microsoft ($65.438+09.3 billion), Apple ($65.438+08.7 billion) and Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook, 65.438+088). China's investment is unknown, but the total R&D investment of Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu alone will reach $654.38+06 billion in 2020.
The biggest markets based on artificial intelligence include biometric systems (with a global market capacity of $36.6 billion), aviation and road traffic with different degrees of autonomy ($27.4 billion and $23.3 billion respectively). The main R&D enterprises of artificial intelligence in Russia include Yandex, VisionLabs, NtechLab, Russian Savings Bank, VK, мт, natural gas industry oil company and Kaspersky Lab.
The author of the white paper pointed out that Russia's advantage in the field of artificial intelligence is its supercomputer. In the regularly updated list of the top 500 supercomputers in the world (version 202 1), there are seven supercomputers in Russia, among which Yandex's "Chervoniakis" supercomputer ranking 19. Russian R&D enterprises can manufacture world-class products, but they must stimulate the demand of users in departments. Russia's main shortcoming in this field is the backwardness of electronic components.
Internet of things
Russia accounts for 0.2% of the total patent applications for related inventions in the field of Internet of Things, and the proportion of published scientific papers accounts for 1.5%. China and the United States have invested the most in this field. In 2020, the total investment in the global Internet of Things will be 742 billion US dollars. According to IDC's forecast, this index will increase at an average annual rate of 1 1.3% before 2024.
Global leading enterprises in this field include Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, IBM Watson, PTC, Google Cloud, Cisco, Alibaba Cloud, China Baidu, etc. Russian companies include мтс, "Signal Flag" Communication Company, Megafon Telecom Company, Russian Telecom, Russian Technology Group and so on. The Internet of Things is entering industries such as industry, agriculture, residential utilities, etc., and is applied to ecological monitoring, fire safety, meteorological monitoring and other fields. Compared with foreign competitors, the main advantages of Russian enterprises are more powerful software, more efficient data processing algorithms, solutions in the field of data storage and monitoring and support for Russian users. The disadvantage is that the main hardware solutions are based on foreign component manufacturing.
5g network
In the total number of invention patent applications and scientific papers related to 5G mobile communication network published in the world, Russia accounts for 0. 1%(20 19) and 1.8%(2020) respectively. The construction of 5G infrastructure is mainly undertaken by equipment manufacturers of large communication operators: Huawei and ZTE in China, Ericsson in Sweden, Nokia in Finland and Samsung in South Korea. The above enterprises account for 95% of the world mobile communication equipment market share. In 2020, their total investment will reach more than 30 billion US dollars. By the end of 2026, the total capacity of the 5G market may increase by more than 100 times, reaching $667.9 billion.
Combining the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence, 5G network can ensure the transition of social and economic sectors and fields to a higher level of technological development, which will improve labor productivity, improve the quality and flexibility of production and services, and reduce the accident rate. Now, there has been a huge gap: the level of 5G injection in the United States, China and South Korea has reached 15%~20%, while this technology in Russia has only been realized in some pilot areas, and the real start of these pilots will wait until 2024. By then, the gap may reach the limit in terms of the development level of 5G network infrastructure and the service readiness based on these infrastructures.
Quantum computing
Russia accounts for 1.5%(20 19 data) and 4.7%(2020 data) of the total number of patent applications and published scientific papers in the field of quantum computing in the world. From the overall index, the leaders in this field are China and the United States. The world market of quantum computing is in its formative stage. Its market capacity will reach10 ~ 2 billion dollars in the last five years, and it may increase to 450 ~ 850 billion dollars in the next 15~30 years. Both countries and large groups are investing in technological development in this field, especially Google, IBM, Microsoft and Honeywell. Russian domestic enterprises engaged in technology development in this field include Russian Atomic Energy Group, Russian Quantum Center and universities.
According to the evaluation, in the field of quantum computing, Russia is 7~ 10 years behind the world's leading countries in technology. From 2025 to 2030, quantum computers are widely used, and Russia's advantages in non-quantum technology will no longer exist. However, at present, quantum devices used for work can not surpass traditional supercomputers for the time being (quantum advantage means that the speed of quantum computers to solve some special tasks is several orders of magnitude higher than that of traditional computing systems).
In the total number of patent applications and scientific papers published in the field of quantum communication in the world, Russia accounts for 1. 1%(20 19 data) and 4.4%(2020 data) respectively. And in terms of atmospheric and space communication lines, Russia accounts for 50%. At present, the United States, Europe, Britain, Japan, China and Russia are laying multi-node trunk lines and urban optical fiber quantum networks. Russia is engaged in related work by companies such as Russian Railways and Russian Telecom.
quantum communication
It is of great significance to industry, because the technology in this field can ensure the protection of digital data based on the basic laws of quantum physics, which is of great practical significance in the case of increasing network threats and the development of quantum computers (with the help of quantum computing, existing encryption algorithms can be cracked in a short time).
Distributed ledger technology
Russia accounts for 0.2%(20 19 year data) and 2. 1%(2020 data) of the total number of patent applications and scientific papers published in the field of distributed ledger technology in the world. The leaders in this field are the United States and China. Companies with the largest number of patent applications include Alibaba in China, Tencent Technology and Hangzhou Complex Technology Company, as well as IBM in the United States and nChain in the United Kingdom. It is predicted that by 2030, the application of distributed ledger technology may ensure that the world GDP will increase by about10.8 trillion US dollars, of which 960 billion US dollars will come from supply chain management, goods and services monitoring and 430 billion US dollars will come from the financial sector. The units applying this technology in Russia include the Federal Tax Bureau, the Russian Savings Bank, Norilsk Nickel Company, and the natural gas industrial oil company.
Power transmission technology and distributed intelligent energy system technology
Energy transformation is one of the priorities on the world economic agenda. EU countries, China and the United States have announced the transition to carbon-neutral energy. Many countries have made plans to increase the proportion of renewable energy in the energy balance.
Russia accounts for 0.8% (data of 2065438+09) and 2% (data of 2020) of the total number of patent applications and published scientific papers in the field of power transmission technology and distributed smart energy system in the world. The leaders in this field are China, Japan and the United States. In Russia, many companies are engaged in the production of products and components in this field, such as Russian Network and Russian Atomic Energy Group. According to the goals set by many road maps, strategic documents and planning documents, by 2035, the total power generation based on renewable energy will reach12GW; By 2030, the total output of electric vehicles will increase to 730,000, and the supporting charging infrastructure will be completed.
Manufacturing technology of electric energy storage system
Technical field of energy storage system (various batteries, etc.). ), the number of patent applications submitted by Russia and the number of scientific papers published in the world account for 1.2%(20 19) and 2.2%(2020) respectively. At present, more than 20 countries have banned the use of internal combustion engines, including Norway (from 2025), Germany (from 2030), France (from 2040), Britain (from 2050), Slovenia, Belgium, India, Singapore and other countries. Judging from the number of patent applications and published scientific papers, Russia's contribution in the field of hydrogen energy technology is more prominent. The Russian Atomic Energy Group is carefully studying the construction project of Russia's "Kyrgyzstan Factory"-a lithium-ion battery production factory.
New materials and new material technology
In the total number of patent applications and scientific papers published in the field of new materials and new materials technology (ultra-light materials, supersolid materials and memory materials, etc.). ) Worldwide, Russian accounts for 0.8% (data of 2019) and 4.3% (data of 2020) respectively. There are large electric vehicle manufacturers (Tesla, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Toyota) and metal products manufacturers engaged in the development of these technologies. The most urgent and demanding applications in various economic sectors are additive manufacturing, polymer composite materials, rare earth metal and its products acquisition technology, lithium technology and so on. Russia's greatest advantage in this field is the acquisition technology of rare earth metals (20 19 accounts for 4.9% of global patent applications). The world's largest importers of rare earth equipment are China and the United States. Russian rare earth metal reserves account for about 17% of the world's reserves, and the total amount of proven raw materials ranks second in the world after China, but the mining amount ranks seventh in the world.
Future space technology
Russia accounts for 3.9%(20 19 data) and 5. 1%(2020 data) of the total number of patent applications and scientific papers published in the field of space technology in the future. According to these two indicators, China and the United States occupy the leading position in the world. Russia holds the largest share of patents in the fields of future geographic information system development (29%) and new generation spacecraft manufacturing technology (4.2%).
Countries with these technical reserves will gain long-term strategic competitiveness. The application of space technology in the future will bring great opportunities for added value growth in agriculture, forestry, mineral resources development, construction, transportation and logistics, information and communication, education, national management and other fields. Russia is developing these technologies under the framework of the national comprehensive development plan for aerospace information technology from 2022 to 2030. The implementation of this plan should ensure that satellite communication, digital broadcasting and high-speed access to the Internet cover the whole territory of Russia, including the Arctic region and northern sea routes, and promote the development of Internet of Things services (marathon Internet of Things) and earth telemetry services.
danger
Undoubtedly, judging from most parameters in the above-mentioned technical fields, the United States and China have opened a great distance from other countries. Judging from the enthusiasm index of scientific researchers for publishing papers, Russia ranks between 7-8 and 19; Judging from the enthusiasm index of patent application, Russia ranks fourth and sixth, and between 20th and 30th. If China needs two patent applications on average to publish a scientific paper, the Russian ratio is about 1:5.
Parts and equipment are heavily dependent on imports (including equipment necessary for research and invention), there is a shortage of senior professionals, the number of emerging companies is extremely low (compared with leading countries), and unicorn enterprises-private high-tech companies (companies with market value exceeding 1 billion dollars) are actually completely lacking, which hinders the development of Russian technology. Under this circumstance, most of the ideas and inventions of Russian universities and scientific research institutions, including those with budgetary allocations, have flowed abroad and returned to Russia in the form of products and services with high price increases.
The pioneers of these new technology markets in the world are Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Tesla, Meta, NVIDIA, Tencent, Samsung, Alibaba, Space Exploration Technology Company and other big companies. Russian companies involved in the above-mentioned process are all large state-owned companies, including Russian Savings Bank, Russian Telecom, Russian Atomic Energy Group, Russian National Aerospace Group, Russian Network, Russian Petroleum, Russian Railways and Natural Gas Industry Corporation. At present, without the active coordination and support of the state, the dream of Russian enterprises entering foreign markets cannot be realized. At the same time, it should be emphasized that even the most powerful "players" in the contemporary world need to adopt an open and innovative business model to conduct business and form a consortium and ecosystem that can multiply the capital value.