Since 20 10, other European countries have also begun to fall into crisis. Greece is no longer the protagonist of the crisis, and the whole EU is troubled by the debt crisis. With Germany, France and other leading countries in the euro zone beginning to feel the impact of the crisis, the whole euro zone is facing the most severe test since its establishment 1 1, and some critics even speculate that the euro zone will eventually end in disintegration. According to the Greek Finance Minister, Greece needs about 9 billion euros to tide over the crisis before May 20 19 10. However, European countries failed to reach an agreement on aiding Greece. On April 27th, Standard & Poor's downgraded Greece's sovereign rating to "junk", and the crisis further escalated.
On October 8, 2065438+0165438/KLOC-0, Fitch, one of the three major rating agencies, announced that Italy and Spain had been downgraded, with a negative rating outlook, in view of the worsening sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the slow economic growth. At the same time, Portugal's credit rating was confirmed as BBB- again, and the outlook was negative. In addition, Moody's warned that Belgium's local currency and foreign currency bond ratings have been included in the negative watch list, and said that Belgium's rating may be lowered. This is another impact of international rating agencies on EU economies after Greece's downgrade, and the financial market is once again nervous.
In the face of the growing European debt crisis, the international community has given a positive rescue signal. European leaders, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, China, etc. They all lend a helping hand to the European debt crisis to ensure the economic stability of the euro zone, enhance the confidence of market investors and revitalize the world economy.
20 1 1 On July 22nd, 2008, the European Union held a European summit to reach a further understanding on rescuing Greece. Eurozone leaders provided Greece with 654.38 billion euros in new financing. According to the draft EU Summit, the term of european financial stability facility (EFSF) is tentatively extended from 7.5 years to at least 15 years, and the loan interest rate of EFSF is lowered to 3.5%. The draft reached an agreement on the new Greek rescue plan, and said that EFSF would be able to recapitalize financial institutions by providing loans to the government. The relevant regulations of EFSF also apply to Ireland and Portugal, and EFSF can intervene in the secondary market, depending on the capital injection by the European Central Bank. The draft also shows that three schemes for the private sector to participate in the second round of Greek bailout are still under discussion, and the three schemes for the private sector to participate in the second round of Greek bailout are debt repurchase, extension and swap.
The European debt crisis is a continuation of the global financial crisis. In order to achieve rapid economic recovery, all countries will implement a proactive fiscal policy. Due to the special system of the euro zone, countries can't implement active monetary policy, but can only implement active fiscal policy to achieve economic recovery, which also leads to the expansion of fiscal deficits in Greece, Portugal and other countries.
In the face of the Greek crisis, financial institutions kept shorting Greek bonds in the financial market, which made the aid to Greece minimal. In addition, the three major rating agencies have continuously downgraded the debt ratings of euro zone countries, which has also contributed to the debt crisis in the euro zone. To this end, we should strengthen the supervision of financial institutions, so that they can really promote economic development.
4. 1.2 Reform the economic structure of EU countries
In order to alleviate the crisis and avoid its recurrence, we must fundamentally carry out structural reforms in the economies of EU countries. Therefore, countries should promote liberalization reform, improve labor productivity and enhance export competitiveness by developing education to promote human capital accumulation and accelerating technological innovation. At the same time, they should reform the labor market, reduce nominal wages, reduce the impact of low-cost countries in Asia outside the euro zone, restore the balance of supply and demand and trade inside and outside the euro zone, and achieve economic recovery through a soft landing.
4. 1.3 A sound economic policy is the basis for maintaining macroeconomic stability.
Prudent industrial policy is the basis of maintaining macroeconomic stability, and economic development divorced from reality will hide great risks. Major countries in crisis rely too much on one or several cyclical industries seriously affected by the crisis. For example, Greece relies on tourism and shipping, Spain on tourism, Ireland on real estate and other countries should achieve an effective balance between industrial development and macro-stability, give full play to their own economic development advantages, foster strengths and avoid weaknesses, and actively develop characteristic industries.
4. 1.4 EU integration needs to be improved urgently
In this debt crisis, the long-standing institutional defects and policy misplacement in the euro zone were quickly exposed. EU countries should speed up the improvement of European monetary, financial and political integration mechanisms, strengthen policy coordination and communication, strengthen and supplement existing mechanisms, strengthen financial supervision and cooperation, and improve EU stability and crisis response capabilities.
4.2 Enlightenment to China
The occurrence and evolution of European sovereign debt crisis not only brought severe challenges to the global economic recovery in the post-crisis era, but also reminded sovereign countries to pay enough attention and vigilance to the government debt problem. For China, although we are far away from the European sovereign debt market and there will be no sovereign debt crisis in the short term, the European sovereign debt problem can still give us a lot of enlightenment.
4.2. 1 Relevant policies and measures should be actively formulated to prevent the impact of the European debt crisis on China.
On the one hand, China's export enterprises should make emergency preparations to minimize the losses caused by shrinking exports, and the government should also reduce external demand to prevent economic growth from slowing down. Expanding domestic demand, changing the mode of economic growth, improving the international competitiveness of domestic industries and enhancing the endogenous power of the economy cannot completely follow the government-led investment-driven development model. The root cause of the European debt crisis is the weak economic growth of various countries and the decline of international industrial competitiveness. Countries in crisis have a weak economic foundation and face greater production pressure after joining the euro zone. And increase government debt and fiscal deficit. In the troika to stimulate the economy, investment has always been the killer of our government to promote economic development, especially after the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the import and export suffered heavy losses, the consumer market was depressed, and increasing the quota overdraft tried and tested. How to reduce the dependence of economic development on investment and export, that is, reduce the contribution of capital formation and net export to economic growth, and improve the contribution of final consumption to economic growth, is the key to China's economic transformation. In the future, infrastructure construction should be moderately reduced, and improving residents' income and consumption tendency should be the focus of domestic economic work.
On the other hand, although China's capital account is not fully open at present, the continuous influx of hot money has caused the bubble of China products. Relevant departments should strengthen the observation and early warning of the inflow of official funds and take effective measures to ensure that possible risks are resolved.
4.2.2 Comprehensively examine the sovereign debt problem of China.
Although China's fiscal deficit and public debt have been below the national warning line, the fiscal deficit accounted for 3% of GDP in 2009. The total debt accounts for 20%, far below the international warning line of 60%, and the security is obviously better than that of developed countries. However, China should examine China's debt problem more comprehensively from the aspects of foreign exchange reserves, foreign debt burden and overall debt situation. At the same time, the government debt problem should be highly valued. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, large-scale rescue measures have been launched in various places, and local debts have expanded rapidly. Some studies estimate that the total local debt is equivalent to 16.5% of GDP. Once these debts default, it will affect market confidence and even national economic security. China should strengthen local government budget management through legislation as soon as possible, improve local government budget management level, enhance transparency, reasonably control the scale of government debt, and strengthen risk management. We should make a comprehensive inventory and evaluation of the national financial debt in a timely manner, conduct quota management and risk early warning on the scale of local government debt, and effectively prevent the risk of default from both financial and financial aspects.
4.2.3 The euro crisis has provided beneficial enlightenment and created new opportunities for RMB internationalization.
The lack of a fiscal policy system compatible with the unified monetary policy system and independent control of finance have caused the imbalance of the euro system. Therefore, the internationalization of RMB needs the construction of perfect monetary policy and fiscal policy system. China can also take advantage of the euro credit crisis to actively promote the use of local currency in bilateral trade with some countries that settle trade in euros, increase the international use of RMB, and gradually promote the regional trade settlement function of the people's currency.
4.2.4 China cannot rashly establish or join the Asian currency area.
According to the provisions of the European Monetary Union, the European Central Bank can only manage European currencies, but not the budgets of member countries. The EU only uses monetary policy tools and has no right to use fiscal policy tools. In the event of a debt crisis, the EU cannot mobilize the financial strength of all countries for regulation. The contradiction between the decentralized fiscal policy and the unified monetary policy in the euro zone also exists in several different versions of the "Asian dollar", that is, the Asian regional monetary integration plan, or even more serious. All versions of "Asian Dollar" seek the unification of regional currencies and a series of monetary and financial opening policies to realize free circulation within the region, but at the same time, they all emphasize the financial autonomy of each country and hold reservations and exclusive attitudes towards supranational financial supervision. In this case, once monetary integration is implemented, the necessary supporting measures are lacking, but when an event similar to the Greek crisis occurs, the pressure and threat faced by Asian countries will be equally serious, or even more serious. Therefore, from the current situation, it is not yet ripe to establish the "Asian dollar" monetary system, and various systems need to be further strengthened.
Conclusion:
In the above, we learned about the current situation of the European debt crisis, the causes and consequences of the European debt, and the enlightenment we got from it. The European debt crisis, which began with the Greek debt crisis in 2009, has not yet emerged from the debt crisis. When we analyze the European debt crisis, we know that the European debt crisis has both internal and external influences. There are internal factors such as imperfect system and unreasonable industrial structure; There are also external reasons such as the persistent external economic crisis and improper measures taken by rating agencies. No matter where these reasons come from, it shows that the euro zone is not perfect. While analyzing the European debt crisis, we should strive to find our own shortcomings from the European debt crisis, constantly change the unreasonable parts of our economic system, and achieve sound and rapid economic development.