First, the quantitative analysis of the game model

Model hypothesis: In order to simplify the analysis, we simplify the subjects involved in this game into three subjects: e-commerce sellers, entity sellers and product manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as e-commerce, entities and manufacturers). Considering that in the process of actual economic development, e-commerce has a changing process of emergence, development, growth, prosperity and decline. In the model, we simplify the simulation by distinguishing seven cases of quantity ratio between e-commerce and entities. In our discussion, we only discuss the changes in the number of e-commerce and entities for the time being, without considering the changes in the number of producers.

(1) The number ratio of entities to e-commerce in the market is n: 1.

In this case, when e-commerce just started, there was only one e-commerce in the market, and some markets were divided by e-commerce. Many entities compete with each other and the only e-commerce, and e-commerce is in a passive position in the whole game process. However, due to the significant difference in sales methods, e-commerce has a complete monopoly position in online sales, so on the one hand, it will enhance its own advantages and stabilize its market share, on the other hand, it will open up new markets and expand its market share to a certain extent. In the game process, the entity will have two countermeasures: First, the entity is worried that e-commerce will occupy more market share, so the entity will unite to lower the price and squeeze e-commerce out of the market. At this time, e-commerce may be unable to resist because of its weak strength. Second, when entity enterprises see the development prospect of e-commerce, they will spend some funds to study the development potential of e-commerce, and it is possible to test water e-commerce. Manufacturers and entities continue to cooperate. In view of the existence of electronic commerce, manufacturers may have two countermeasures. On the one hand, in order to broaden their own sales channels, increase sales and be optimistic about the development prospects of e-commerce, they will work closely with e-commerce; On the other hand, it is believed that e-commerce has no development prospects and will not bring more profits to its own sales. It is also to prevent e-commerce from selling its own goods. Because the existence of counterfeit goods will have an impact on its own brand, it will not cooperate with that e-commerce. In this case, the game will produce two results: first, entities occupy all markets, and entities continue to compete. Second, entities and e-commerce coexist, and e-commerce has gradually grown.

(2) The number of entities and e-commerce in the market (A: B) is A >；; B> 1

In the second stage of the game between entities and e-commerce, the number of e-commerce has increased greatly, occupying a larger market share and increasing the degree of competition among them. In this game process, entities will have three behavior choices when combining their own advantages and disadvantages: first, physical stores will maintain their own advantages and remain entities; Second, some entities have discovered the development potential of e-commerce and actively seek cooperation with e-commerce; Third, there are still some physical stores that completely abandon physical operations and begin to transform e-commerce. Accordingly, the strength of e-commerce is growing, and various measures are taken to increase investment, constantly innovate development models, compete with entity enterprises for market share, and selectively cooperate with physical stores while competing. At this time, the entity took the initiative to raise the purchase price to the manufacturer, and wanted to cut off the supply of e-commerce and suppress e-commerce by cooperating with the manufacturer. If the manufacturer chooses to cooperate with the entity, the physical store may supply some goods to the e-commerce at a higher price after cooperating with the manufacturer, so as to obtain greater private interests and thus obtain intermediate profits. However, manufacturers may not simply cooperate with physical stores. They will look at various factors, including the operation, development and future market occupation of entities and e-commerce, and selectively allocate their own sources of goods in order to maximize their profits. In this case, entities and e-commerce coexist, e-commerce occupies more market share due to its cost advantage, the market share of entities is decreasing, and the game advantage of e-commerce is increasing, and the two continue to develop in the game.

(3) The number of entities and e-commerce in the market is A = B..

E-commerce has developed rapidly, squeezing out of the market quickly and competing with entities. In an increasingly harsh competitive environment, after the survival of the fittest, only some physical stores can retain their own advantages and maintain market share, and the competition between them is in a stalemate. In this game process, the entity has three countermeasures: some physical stores with weak foundation can't withstand the impact of e-commerce and are eliminated; Some powerful enterprises are still insisting on and seeking the combination with e-commerce; Some of them have been transformed into e-commerce companies with cost advantages. E-commerce has developed rapidly, occupying half of the market, but some problems such as its quality, reputation and after-sales service are gradually exposed. We should slow down and improve our own quality. In the case of having a comparative competitive advantage, it is also actively seeking integration with entities. At this time, for manufacturers, if e-commerce and entities unite, they can * * * reduce the price of suppliers * * * and make profits; It is also possible that e-commerce does not cooperate with entities, because the cost of e-commerce is lower than that of entities, and it can give more money to producers, and joint producers weaken the strength of entities. In this case, some e-commerce companies have combined with entities and achieved considerable benefits. Those who still insist on being entities will be affected but will not be substantially damaged, while e-commerce still has advantages in occupying the market and continues to develop.

(4) The number of entities and e-commerce in the market is 1

E-commerce occupies most of the market share, develops rapidly, and the living environment of entities is getting worse and worse. In order to seek profits, it continues to compete with e-commerce. In this game process, the entity has three countermeasures: the general enterprises quit to reduce losses and protect capital, and all of them transform into e-commerce; Some brand enterprises withdraw some funds in order to combine with e-commerce; There are also some entities that look for features that e-commerce does not have, constantly upgrade their brands, pay attention to user experience services, and then counter e-commerce. E-commerce continues to expand its own market, seize a larger market share, and constantly suppress entities. In the process of its own development, it is also constantly reviewing, improving service quality and paying attention to user satisfaction. At the same time, e-commerce is still seeking the combination with entities, so as to meet the needs of consumers and consumer psychology to a greater extent. In the case of good development momentum of e-commerce, sufficient supply is needed. Manufacturers realize that the sales of physical stores are declining, so they seek cooperation with e-commerce and tilt the supply to e-commerce. E-commerce will also take this opportunity to lower the supply price, and e-commerce will make more profits. Under this circumstance, market competition is fierce, e-commerce slows down, and entities are further weakened.

(5) The number of entities and e-commerce in the market is1:n.

Although e-commerce has an absolute advantage, entities still occupy a part of the market share, and the two continue to play the game. In this game process, entities adopt a series of measures such as membership system, combining with specific e-commerce companies and seeking greater benefits to survive and give play to their own advantages. E-commerce actively seeks cooperation with the entity; At the same time, due to the large number of e-commerce, the competition among e-commerce has intensified, and some e-commerce companies will take various measures to maximize their own interests, such as: fighting for price, fighting for quality, and seeking product differentiation. At this time, manufacturers will choose to cooperate with well-run e-commerce companies to provide them with more sources of goods. In order to obtain more goods and expand itself, an entity may take the initiative to raise the purchase price and compete with e-commerce for goods. Manufacturers will choose between entities and e-commerce to maximize their own interests and allocate their own goods. In this game situation, a physical store takes advantage of its own advantages and gradually grows up in a harsh competitive environment.

(6) In the second case, the number of entities and e-commerce in the market is1:n.

Competition within e-commerce has intensified and profits have decreased. However, physical stores have a wide market and good benefits. Under pressure, e-commerce is also aware of the profit space and development prospects of physical stores. Some e-commerce companies with poor business conditions want to turn into entities, and this entity will resist the entry of e-commerce for its own interests. In this game process, entities will take two measures: resistance and acceptance. In the case of resistance, physical stores will optimize services, differentiate products, expand the brand awareness of physical stores, adopt more favorable prices, seize the market, attract customers and give play to their own advantages. At the same time, the entity will negotiate with the manufacturer in advance and sign a contract, which can only supply this entity, and cannot supply the newly opened physical store, thus resisting the e-commerce from becoming an entity. In the case of acceptance, the physical store will accept some e-commerce companies as entities for entity integration. Manufacturers realize that physical stores are growing, and entities also have strong bargaining power at this time, so suppliers will lower the supply price and increase the supply to entities, and entities will become more advantageous in countering e-commerce. E-commerce companies with advantages in internal competition will maintain their advantages and continue to be e-commerce companies because of their good benefits. At the same time, they will expand sales channels, innovate sales models and find new breakthroughs to expand market share. E-commerce, which is at a disadvantage in internal competition, wants to reduce the losses caused by internal competition of e-commerce and turn it into an entity. For this part of e-commerce, when the entity boycotts, the barriers to entering the entity will increase, not only facing the resistance of increasing costs, but also facing the pressure brought by manufacturers, which is likely to face the risk of unsuccessful transformation. If the entity is accepted, it may gain new profit space and develop better. In this case, the number of entities has increased and the number of e-commerce companies has decreased relatively. In the case of improving strength, both sides have improved their profits.

(7) The number of delisting entities and e-commerce enterprises is 1

In order to seize the bigger market, e-commerce plays a game between entities to resist the further expansion of entities, and both parties gain greater benefits. The cooperation between e-commerce and entities is relatively smooth. Some e-commerce companies want to transform into entities. Of course, there are also entities that have transformed into e-commerce. Entities boycott e-commerce, and e-commerce will boycott entities, which makes the transformation more difficult for both sides. In this case, there are barriers for e-commerce to enter the entity, and the cost of transforming e-commerce from the entity is higher. Not only that, both of them have developed to a higher level and are in a relatively stable and saturated market state, which intensifies the difficulty of their transformation. E-commerce and entities continue to stabilize the market and realize cooperation between e-commerce and entities. The market has entered a state of equilibrium, and the two are neck and neck in the * * *. While the two companies constantly improve their own capabilities and achieve a balance, manufacturers will gradually tend to provide goods to both parties at a unified price, stabilize profits, and only play the role of supply.

Second, the conclusion

Under the constant coordination of manufacturers and suppliers, e-commerce will not completely replace entities, and entities will not completely suppress e-commerce, and the mutual transformation between them will be curbed. E-commerce and entities have achieved cooperation and balance through repeated games. In the future development, the number of physical stores will gradually decrease, but the advantages in experience service and personalized service will continue to increase. While constantly improving its own services, e-commerce also pays attention to the combination with physical stores, looking for the perfect experience of consumers and realizing comprehensive information enjoyment.

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