(1) Topic type: ① People's livelihood: price dynamics, reform dynamics, etc. ② Types of accidents and disasters: all kinds of safety accidents, etc. ③ Types of government corruption: involving "officials" and "corruption"; ④ Type of public health events: events that seriously affect public health and life safety; ⑤ Group event types: all kinds of events triggered by some social contradictions, temporarily formed by the gathering of a specific group or an unspecified majority, and having a significant impact on social stability through large-scale gathering without legal basis; ⑥ Main melody type: praising socialism and other themes; ⑦ Types of life and leisure; (8) Types of international news; Pet-name ruby culture and education; Attending other types.
(2) Related posts: the number of related posts brought by a specific topic.
(3) Number of replies: ① Number of replies to posts; ② The total number of replies to each topic.
(4) Click volume: ① Post click volume; ② The total number of clicks on each topic.
(5) Content source: ① original content of the author; 2 original content reprinted from other netizens; ③ News, news comments, etc. Reprinted from online media or traditional media.
(6) Content tone: ① positive; ② Negative; ③ objective criticism; ④ There is no obvious emotional color.
2. Communication characteristics of the topic
(1) Conventional topics/unconventional topics: Conventional topics are often national events or major emergencies; Unconventional topics refer to topics that are triggered by abnormal or unreasonable phenomena, and netizens independently publish information with the help of online media platforms.
(2) Mandatory topic/non-mandatory topic: mandatory topic refers to the topic that the audience can directly experience; Non-mandatory topics refer to topics that the audience can't experience directly and must be understood through mass media.
(3) Whether opinion leaders participate: Use this indicator to measure the effectiveness of the topic.
(4) Whether there is traditional media participation: Use this indicator to measure the spillover effect of the topic.
(5) the psychology of the public in the process of topics and events: ① the psychology of seeking knowledge and truth; ② catharsis and emotional expression psychology; ③ conformity psychology; ④ Seeking identity psychology; ⑤ Pursuing equality; 6. Loneliness and boredom; ⑦ Highlight individual psychology; 8 self-realization psychology.
(6) Types of viewpoints in the topic: ① Unity; ② Binary (or more) opposition.
Second, data analysis.
Because "View" and "Reply" are fixed distance variables, and the rest are fixed type variables, T test and Chi-square test are used to verify their representativeness to the population.
(A) Internet topics into public opinion topics need the participation of opinion leaders.
The participation of opinion leaders is not a sufficient condition for the formation of hot issues of online public opinion, but a necessary condition. Public opinion leaders can constantly supplement and provide the latest information on the development of events, so that netizens can keep their attention and expand the social impact of the topic. In addition, opinion leaders also have the functions of setting a discussion framework, providing objective reference opinions, and promoting the transfer and transformation of online public opinion during the formation of online topics and public opinion, which can maximize the influence of topics.
(2) Topics that can satisfy the public psychology of a certain group are more likely to be transformed into online public opinion issues.
Lei Wen's psychological field theory holds that all human behaviors change with the change of individuals and (psychological) environment. Once people's psychological balance is broken, they need corresponding behavioral means to release tension and make psychological compensation, and so does online public opinion. A lot of emotional remarks are the process that netizens feel nervous, cause psychological tension, release tension, and then produce psychological balance when facing unexpected events. Studies have shown that many netizens with psychological imbalance believe that using online media to express their views online can release their social pressure. Wang Daming: On the psychological mechanism of online public opinion-A study based on field theory, Master thesis of Guangxi University, 20 10, p.1/. Netizens with similar psychology will gradually form groups, realize the transformation to group psychology, and form online public opinion. The statistical results show that the most common netizens' psychology in online topics is seeking approval, and the least is conformity. This is because the anonymity of network communication greatly weakens people's fear of isolation, so the motivation of network conformity is correspondingly reduced.
(3) Non-mandatory topics are easier to be transformed into online public opinion topics than mandatory topics.
For the audience, those mandatory topics that can be directly experienced without being learned through mass media are not so valuable. Although netizens have more room to speak and express when discussing these topics, in the process of agenda setting, the public is more likely to be interested in topics that cannot be directly experienced and need to be understood through mass media, and their psychology of seeking knowledge and truth is more easily satisfied, and the effect of agenda setting is more obvious. For example, the political situation in Libya and the financial turmoil in Wenzhou involved in the study are all non-optional topics.
(d) Unconventional topics are easier to be transformed into online public opinion issues than conventional topics.
First of all, unconventional topics are rare and sudden. Secondly, unconventional topics often have certain relevance, which easily leads to their rapid evolution into other events; Third, unconventional emergencies are very complicated. Rarity makes the existing coping strategies insufficient to cope with the development of the incident, suddenness makes it too late for relevant departments to make full preparations, and relevance makes the impact of the incident wider. These attributes make it easy for unconventional topics to form a system and have a complex development chain, thus evolving into a hot public opinion event.
(e) Internet topics involving traditional media are more likely to turn into public opinion topics.
Network media is grass-roots, and the social effect produced only by the power of the Internet itself is limited. Only through the in-depth follow-up and confirmation of traditional media can online public opinion be more authoritative and credible. The transformation process of network issues is not only promoted by public opinion leaders, but also influenced by traditional media reports. The follow-up of traditional media has become a great help in the process of network topic transformation, making the discussion deeper and deeper. Traditional media and online public opinion are the sources of topics. They not only complement each other, but also are a circular process, which makes the impact of the incident expand and spread to all aspects. Therefore, when the network media is combined with the traditional media, it will produce the effect of 1+ 1 > 2, resulting in a public opinion effect that cannot be ignored.
(6) Topics with relatively single opinion types are more likely to rise to online public opinion issues.
There is no obvious correlation between the variable "opinion type in topic" and whether hot public opinion events form this variable, which can not affect the survival of posts and the flow of topics. The topic of unified opinion type itself may be a big and vague topic, and few netizens participate in the discussion; And topics with diverse opinions, such as "Guo Can is beautiful and shows off its wealth, forcing officials to disclose their property?" Topics like this can lead to extensive discussions. Although this phenomenon does not prove that "a topic with a relatively single viewpoint type is more likely to rise to the topic of online public opinion", it does confirm another conclusion of Mr. Yu Guoming to a certain extent, that is, "a topic with diversified viewpoints is generally transformed into a unified viewpoint structure through argumentation".
(7) The formation mechanism of online topics and online public opinion.
Internet speech expressed through online topics usually shows the characteristics of dispersion and simplicity, and most of them have a short survival time, showing a changing trend of "feeling first and then reasoning". This means that the "representativeness" of most online speeches and their social effects are extremely limited. However, although the number of online comments entering the level of rational analysis is small, it can have a strong and lasting social influence.
The formation mechanism of online public opinion can be summarized from the research conclusions: first, the publication of personal opinions and the emergence of ordinary topics. Secondly, it is the proliferation of personal opinions and discussion circles. Discussion circle refers to the communication state in which at least a few people and at most a dozen people get together to talk to each other and reach a preliminary agreement. Liu Jianming, Ji Zhonghui and Wang Lili: Introduction to Public Opinion, Communication University of China Press, 2009, pp. 52-53. At this stage, opinions are constantly supplemented, developed and deepened. Third, public opinion leaders began to intervene. Finally, with the participation of traditional media, the topic has matured. The spillover effect and ringing effect of the problem interact between online media and traditional media, forming a more complete public opinion supervision system.
In the whole process, there may be unexpected events and other factors, which have a catalytic effect on the formation of online public opinion, but the completion of the whole process still follows the above four stages, any of which may complete the transformation from topic to topic. Whether or not some kind of network public opinion is finally formed is the standard to judge whether the transformation is completed.
Network public opinion monitoring requires real-time, comprehensiveness and accuracy. Duoruike public opinion data analysis station can meet the three major elements of the system public opinion information service market, namely, real-time: the earlier the public opinion is obtained, the greater the space left for response and disposal, while the development of online public opinion is often explosive, and the opportunity is fleeting. Once the best opportunity is missed, it will be regretted; Comprehensiveness: Internet public opinion is a little easier to attack, not as good as the rest, with a large amount of information, and it is easy to ignore many important information; Accuracy: under the condition of massive information, how to accurately grasp the core of the problem and not be trapped by interference is the key to making a correct judgment.