Recently, the debate about RMB exchange rate has become more and more fierce. More and more political and economic figures in the United States, regardless of political parties, have unanimously accused the China administration of deliberately underestimating the RMB exchange rate, which has made the US economic recovery difficult and even seriously affected the global economic recovery. Furthermore, the US Congress may pass a bill to list the RMB as a government-manipulated exchange rate, and it seems that a Sino-US trade war is coming.
With the development of the global economic crisis, it seems that all the attention has begun to focus on the RMB exchange rate. The author believes that this is a development trend with increasingly concentrated contradictions and increasingly clear situation. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is an economic phenomenon, and there are a series of complicated reasons behind this economic phenomenon. Although it is difficult for this paper to make a comprehensive and detailed analysis of all these factors and their interrelationships, it can be boldly and briefly summarized as follows: This reflects the serious imbalance of basic rights in the real world caused by the huge differences in cultural traditions and values between China and the United States. In the last two decades, this difference initially showed some complementarity, which led to the domestic economic and political policies of the two countries moving in their respective directions. However, in fact, there was an invisible "competition" between the tolerance of most people in China society for the lack of basic rights and the binding force of most people in the United States for unrestrained indulgence, and finally the serious imbalance of this difference developed to an unsustainable level. First of all, this binding force in the United States collapsed, and the credit crisis began to lead to a financial crisis, then developed into an economic crisis and then spread to the whole world.
Now the problem is focused on the RMB exchange rate, which is ostensibly an exchange rate issue. But it affects all kinds of profound contradictions and interests in Chinese and American society.
As far as the United States is concerned, for a long time, due to the serious imbalance of basic rights between the two countries, American society actually relied on the extremely cheap labor of hundreds of millions of ordinary workers in China, providing a "blood transfusion" mechanism for its unrestrained indulgence, and at the same time losing its own "hematopoietic" function to a considerable extent, which is manifested in the increasingly hollowing out of manufacturing industry and the serious shrinkage of the real economy relative to the virtual economy. As a result, after the economic crisis broke out, it was suddenly found that most of the American economy had become a bubble. The serious shrinkage of the real economy has not only caused our dependence on the export of products from other countries (mainly China) to the United States, but also seriously eroded and harmed the health and vitality of American society itself. The American Social Democratic Party, * * * and the party representatives expressed two main values and policy directions. At the peak of the United States' strongest comprehensive national strength, George W. Bush's two presidents and the party government once thought that they could maintain world hegemony for a long time with their superior military strength (which was largely due to China's "blood transfusion"), but the actual process of the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan made most Americans see the prospect of this policy. Coupled with the outbreak of the economic crisis, the United States had to seriously and comprehensively review the party's policies and consequences, so there was a one-sided election victory for the Democratic Party. However, the values of the Democratic Party believe that the United States should first revisit the spirit of democracy and equality. In real life, most ordinary people are not only required to control consumption, but also to work. Unfortunately, the lifestyle that has lasted for more than ten years cannot be easily changed in a short time. The American people once overwhelmingly supported Obama's "change", but once this "change" involves people's real life style, the attitude of ordinary Americans will naturally be somewhat discounted. This policy of encouraging small and medium-sized enterprises to regain their competitive vitality directly faces the challenge of a large number of cheap products in China, and the low exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has become a serious obstacle to the survival and development of small and medium-sized enterprises in the United States, and it is also the first difficulty that the United States must overcome in order to truly get rid of the economic crisis. Therefore, the two parties in the United States unanimously put increasing pressure on the China administration on the RMB exchange rate issue. In fact, Americans are also going through a rather painful process of economic restructuring. "There is no (forever) free lunch in the world."
As far as China is concerned, since the mid-1990s, the guiding ideology for formulating economic policies has been firmly believing in the principle of the supremacy of GDP for more than ten years. Deng Xiaoping's phrase "development is the last word" monopolized all ideological activities of economic policy think tanks and decision makers. As long as the annual GDP growth is the right direction and the ultimate goal, no one has thought deeply and asked for a long time: "What is development?" As a result, the proudest achievements of decades of economic development are trillions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves and trillions of dollars in US Treasury bonds. For decades, the labor value of billions of RMB created by billions of ordinary workers has been lying in the national treasury, or provided to the American people for unrestrained consumption in advance. However, the labor skills and quality of life of most ordinary workers have hardly been improved. The comprehensive development index and per capita index of the whole society still rank around 100 in the world after 30 years' efforts and even countless lives. People all over the world want to know how China people understand the meaning of life. No wonder Kissinger said a few days ago, "China has always been a fascinating country." The author thinks that the undervaluation of RMB exchange rate in China comprehensively reflects that the labor value of most ordinary workers is seriously underestimated, and further, the life value of most ordinary workers is seriously underestimated!
To sum up, the author believes that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is a comprehensive indicator, reflecting the cultural, political and economic differences and imbalances between China and the United States. Solving the RMB exchange rate problem is not a simple economic problem. Therefore, we cannot simply set an immediate appreciation range of RMB against the US dollar according to the wishes and requirements of the United States, but must gradually appreciate according to the actual quality of life, labor efficiency and the actual improvement of basic rights of most ordinary workers in China society. The United States should never force the RMB to appreciate in any way. The current situation between China and the United States is caused by the serious inequality of basic rights over the years, and this inequality should not continue. For a big country like China, the United States should (in fact) clearly realize that there is no way to force China to act according to the wishes of the United States by coercive means (including war). More importantly, China should be aware of its own interests and know how to safeguard and realize its own interests rationally, rationally and firmly.
Specific to the practical problems, the current real economy lacks the strength to compete with China's cheap products, which is a practical problem in the United States and will indeed affect the recovery of the American economy. However, it is impossible for China to complete the transformation of its socio-economic structure, especially its political structure, in a few months or years. Moreover, if we continue to rely on cheap labor to maintain economic growth, it will only further accumulate social contradictions and damage China's long-term core interests. Therefore, the author believes that according to the current situation, China should not and cannot substantially increase the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar. If the United States thinks it is necessary to launch trade war protection, encourage small and medium-sized enterprises in the United States to resume production, increase the employment of most people and accelerate economic recovery, as long as it does not intend to confront China, appropriate trade protection will benefit both sides. Low-intensity trade war can force China to get rid of export dependence, improve labor efficiency, improve the quality of life of most workers and realize real social development. As far as China is concerned, there is no need to fear some degree of US trade protection. This trade war should be roughly confined to China and the United States, because the trade between China and other countries in the world is not as serious as that between China and the United States.
In short, the status quo of China and the United States is that no one can live without anyone, and malicious challenges from either side will hurt themselves. The wise decision is that both sides consider each other's actual situation and don't deliberately take advantage of each other's difficulties.