Russian urbanization process; Anti-urbanization; Level of urbanization; Urban population; City grouping
Since 1980s, the process of urbanization in Russia has begun to slow down, which has attracted the attention of many sociologists and economists, who have conducted in-depth research on it [1] (PP 65-77). Western urban theory holds that when the country's urbanization level reaches a certain level, it will be reversed, so some researchers believe that Russia also belongs to this situation [2]. However, due to the uncertainty of Russia's economic development, Russia's urbanization process is still unclear, so it is doubtful whether Russia's urbanization process has entered the stage of anti-urbanization, and many phenomena are inconsistent with those of western countries. This is the original intention of this paper, and this paper will answer this question through a lot of data analysis.
First of all, the challenge of Russian urbanization process to urbanization theory.
1900, Russia was still a purely agricultural country, with only 15% of the population living in cities, while the urbanization level of western countries was 2.5 times that of Russia in the same period. Twenty years later, after the baptism of World War I, Russia suffered considerable losses, and this proportion remained unchanged. But then, with the large-scale industrialization of the Soviet Union, the urbanization process in Russia began to accelerate. By 1980, the urbanization level of the Soviet Union was close to that of western developed countries and much higher than that of the vast number of third world countries. However, from 199 1, both the urban population and the total population of Russia began to decrease, and the level of urbanization began to decline significantly. The population decline is not the first time in Russian history, but this time it is not because of war or plague, but because of some internal factors, which is the first time in Russian national history [3]. During this period, the negative population growth rate of Russia even surpassed that of western European countries, which is in sharp contrast with the rapid population growth of third world countries. At the same time, Russia's urbanization level is also declining rapidly, approaching the level of semi-marginal countries (more developed developing countries) in the world, while its population negative growth trend is similar to that of western countries. The proportion of Russian urban population is decreasing, and the total population is decreasing at the same time. This is the basic situation in Russia at present.
What needs to be mentioned here is the influence of the Soviet Union on the level of urbanization in Russia. You know, the achievements of the former Soviet Union in urbanization are purposeful. At present, there are 1090 cities in Russia, about 630 of which were established after 19 17. The industrialization process of the former Soviet Union absorbed a large number of rural labor force, and established a large number of cities in the core and periphery of the former Soviet Union, which developed rapidly. In this process, many cities developed ahead of schedule, which caused many social and economic problems [4]. Therefore, the Soviet Union began to control the migration and industrialization of urban population in 1930s, and further restricted the development of big cities after 1960s. This urbanization policy of the Soviet Union can be called "decentralization and centralization", some of which are similar to the policy of "controlling the scale of big cities, rationally developing small and medium-sized cities, and actively building county towns and market towns" advocated by China in the 1980s. At this stage, the population of the core area of the Soviet Union (European part) spread to many areas in the east, north and south, and these backward marginal areas developed well in the past. The implementation of these policies is obviously to avoid excessive concentration of population and industry.
Harris thinks that the former Soviet Union is a land full of big cities [5]. This is especially true in Russia. The federal population is 565,438+0%, and the urban population is 57%. Among the cities with a population of over 500,000 in the Soviet Union, Russia accounts for 62% of the population. However, the proportion of Russia's big cities with a population of more than 6.5438+0 million is very small, far below the world average, and even lower than countries in Latin America and the Far East [6] (pages 34-48). This coincides with the "decentralized and centralized" urbanization strategy adopted by the Soviet Union.
During the same period, the establishment of many low-level industrial towns and semi-urbanized towns in the Soviet Union caused many scholars to discuss "over-urbanization" [7]( pp.2 19-244). There may be some problems with this term itself, but debaters believe that the urban system of the Soviet Union is incomplete, the urbanization process is imperfect, and the level of urbanization has not yet reached the level of western developed countries. If this view is correct, then the events that happened in 1990s should be regarded as a "pause" symbol of Russian urbanization process, and not as the arrival of anti-urbanization stage. The more important fact is that the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the stagnation of urbanization in Russia almost happened at the same time, which is very puzzling.
Here, I would also like to mention another view of Russian scholars. In recent research, Medvedev believes that 199 1 is the turning point of Russian urbanization S curve, that is, the turning point of urbanization process to anti-urbanization stage. Generally speaking, before this turning point, the level of urbanization has been highly developed, the gap between urban and rural areas has narrowed significantly, and the population of big cities has begun to migrate to suburbs or small cities [8]. The turning point in the United States is probably 1970. The author believes that no matter whether the Soviet Union fails or not, no matter how much the political and economic situation changes, this anti-urbanization stage will come sooner or later. At the same time, he found that the growth of Russian urban population mainly shifted from big cities to medium-sized cities after that. Cities with a population of over one million lost 2 million residents in 199 1- 1996, while cities with a population of 0.25- 1 10,000 lost 1 10,000 during this period. Small cities continue to grow. In the urban group of 0.05-0.25 million people, the total population reached 2.5 million people, more than 2 million people more than before 199 1. Obviously, this is a trend of anti-polarization.
On the other hand, however, this view is questionable. Because most small cities are located in areas with immature urbanization, the life in these small cities can only be called semi-marginalized urban life. You know, before the stage of anti-urbanization, the difference between big cities and small cities and suburbs has been greatly reduced. At the same time, the urbanization level in some parts of Russia is very high, and the urbanization process has reached a stage of stagnation, while the urbanization level in many other places is still very backward [8]. So it seems wrong to think that the level of urbanization in Russia as a whole has reached a highly developed state. Because in the next stage (1996- 1999), Russia's economy recovered, and big cities began to grow again, increasing by as much as140,000 people, while the population growth rate of small cities slowed down, only increasing by 200,000 people, and the residents of medium-sized cities with 20,000 to 500,000 people decreased by 2 million. However, after a four-year growth period of 199 1- 1994, the rural population began a new stage of decline.
The above discussion proves that the Russian urban system is extremely unstable after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and it has not actually reached the stage of anti-urbanization in the West. Generally speaking, at the beginning of this stage, the west has basically eliminated the gap between the core and the periphery in wealth and living standards. In Russia, unrest has further widened the gap between a few big cities and remote areas. The population in remote areas is experiencing serious poverty. In many remote cities, local industries can't meet the needs of local people, so many people have returned to the countryside. Next, this paper will analyze the urbanization process of Russia in the past century by analyzing the changes of the total population and migration of urban groups of different sizes, so as to further understand the historical evolution process and future development trend of Russian urbanization process.
Second, the time series analysis of Russian urbanization process: the changes of total population and net migration population in different urban groups.
In order to deeply analyze the historical process of the development of large, medium and small cities in Russia, firstly, the author needs to group cities according to the population size. It should be noted that the definition of large, medium and small cities changes with time, because the population of cities is growing, and the previous standards are no longer applicable. The average urban population in Russia increased from 5 cadres in 1800 to 2 cadres in 1900, and then to 90,000 in 1900. This is also the reason why this paper defines the scale of large, medium and small cities by time. According to the author's various references, the size of medium-sized cities is defined by time. After defining the size of medium-sized cities, the population sizes of natural big cities and small cities come out accordingly. The author defines the population size of medium-sized cities in Russia in different periods as follows:15,000-20,000 people in the 9th century; At the turn of the century 1897 to 1926, 10000-50000 people; From 1926 to 1959, there are 20000- 100000 people; From 1959 to 1970, there are 40,000-200,000 people; After the last 1970 is 50000-250000. The lower limit of standards after 1970 refers to the standards of developing countries, while the lower limit of 250,000 people in big cities is the normal level of central cities in contemporary Russia [9].
According to the above standards, there were 74 big cities, 263 medium-sized cities and 2630 small cities in Russia in 2000 (of which 755 were cities in full sense and 1, 875 were small towns). 1897, according to the standard of19th century, Russia has 85 big cities, 306 medium-sized cities and 430 small cities (excluding small towns).
Because in a long time series, the census data is relatively complete and the migration data is relatively scattered, so the author first analyzes the former. Figure 1 reflects the general situation of Russian urbanization process since the middle of the 9th century, from which we can also see many twists and turns in Russian urbanization process. 186 1 after the abolition of serfdom, a large number of farmers were liberated from the land and many farmers began to work in cities. Russia has also gradually transitioned from a feudal urban system to an industrialized urban system. However, during the period of 19 14-26, due to the influence of World War I, Soviet revolution and civil war, this development process was seriously affected. During this period, the population of Moscow and St. Petersburg decreased by nearly half. As can be seen from the curve in the figure, during this period, the population growth rate of big cities in Russia is almost zero, while the situation in rural areas is similar. Medium-sized cities are the most affected, and only small towns are still stable. This shows that when the crisis comes, a large number of residents will move to small towns or villages to tide over the difficulties because big cities can't meet people's lives. Compared with big cities, medium-sized cities have a poor foundation, so they are also the hardest hit areas.
Figure 1 Average annual growth rate of different urban agglomerations in Russia
The period from 1926 to 1939 was the stage of compulsory industrialization and collectivization in the Soviet Union. During this period, the city has developed greatly (of course, this development is at the expense of the countryside). The development of big cities is the fastest, while the development of small cities is the slowest, which indicates that Russia is gradually transitioning from the early urbanization stage to the polarization stage, and this process continues until 1940. The second world war once again disrupted the urbanization process in Russia, making all the curves in the picture downward. In 1950s, Russian economy recovered to a certain extent, and Russia resumed the normal development process of urbanization for the third time. It was not until the sixties and seventies that it slowly recovered to the pre-war level, and the growth rate began to slow down gradually.
As can be seen from figure 1, the urbanization process in Russia was interrupted by political turmoil for the second time, forming a wave-like urbanization development curve. After the third resumption of development, the urbanization speed is obviously not fast and has been in a downward trend, which shows that the urbanization speed in Russia will inevitably slow down after reaching a certain level; On the other hand, the Soviet Union paid too much attention to the development of urban industry, especially heavy industry, and neglected the support and development of secondary and tertiary industries, which obviously hindered the further development of urbanization in the Soviet Union. Although its urbanization level is very high, the quality of urban life still lags behind that of western developed countries. This stage lasted until the disintegration, during which the urbanization level of Russia once reached more than 73%.
There are two main factors affecting population change, namely natural growth and net migration. Since 1992, both rural and urban populations in Russia have experienced a process of negative growth, and the urban population has declined even faster. 199 1- 1992 during the urban crisis, food shortage and soaring prices caused a large number of urban population to move out in a short time. On the other hand, rural areas have absorbed a large number of Russians from other former countries, and some urban residents from eastern and northern Russia have also moved to rural areas in traditional Russian areas. The third specific factor leading to the decline of urban population is the re-differentiation of administrative management: hundreds of semi-urbanized towns demand to return to rural status, because this will make residents bear lower water, electricity and public transportation costs, and they can also own large areas of private land. These factors have led to the population growth in rural areas and the population decline in semi-urban areas. Big cities have also experienced the process of population decline, and other groups have remained basically stable (see table 1).
Tables 1 1989, 1994 and 1999 Population and number of cities in Russia.
Population size (unit: dry people)198919941999
Total population (millions)
Urban population > 250 54.2 53.4 52.8
Urban population 50-250
Urban population is 20-5011.61.61.8.
urban population
Semi-urbanized residence13.512.211.5
Rural 39. 1 39.9 39.5
Number of cities
Urban population > 250 78 76 74
urban population
Urban population 20-50 360 36 1 365
urban population
Semi-urbanized residence 21932,061.922
Rural 152900 No data No data
Source: State Statistical Committee of the Russian Federation, the same below.
Figure 2 is a graph of the net mobility of Russian urban and rural population since 1970. As can be seen from the picture, Russian cities are very popular except in the early 1990s. Before the crisis, the Russian rural population was in a state of net emigration for a long time. In the classical urbanization theory, the migration from rural areas to cities has always been the main flow direction, and the reverse flow is only possible in wartime. However, what happened in Russia in the 1990s was different. Urban residents moved to the countryside for the first time in peacetime in Russia. However, with the gradual recovery of Russian economy, this process has only gone through a short time, and the migration from rural areas to cities has once again become the mainstream, and immigrants from former countries have also turned from rural areas to cities.
Figure 3 shows the net migration curve by city size. Due to incomplete data, only some typical years were selected. As can be seen from the figure, before the crisis broke out, Russia slowly transitioned to the early mature stage of urbanization, and the net migration rate in rural areas gradually transitioned from high to low; The mobility of large and medium-sized cities is very high at first, and then it begins to decline slowly after a certain degree. The turbulence in the early 1990s made the development process of all urban groups retrogress to the early stage of urban development. As mentioned earlier, during the 1992-94 crisis, villages and small cities became popular places to move in, attracting a large number of Russians from big cities and former countries to move in. Immigrants from other countries are often first placed in rural areas and small cities, and are forced to take this as their destination. However, the survey shows that these foreign settlers do not live well in villages and small towns, and many of them ask to leave. Turbulence and these anti-urbanization government actions are the primary reasons for the retrogression and stagnation of Russian urbanization in the 1990s.
Figure 2 Inter-annual net migration of Russian cities, rural areas and total population
Fig. 3 Inter-annual changes of net population mobility in cities and rural areas of different sizes.
Nevertheless, only 65,438+0,992 shows that big cities in Russia have negative net liquidity. Relatively speaking, it is easier to make money in big cities in Russia. The bigger the city, the easier it is. For example, the population of the capital Moscow accounts for only 6% of the country, while the GDP accounts for 13.5% of the country, and the fiscal revenue accounts for as much as 40%. Therefore, when Russia's economy began to recover, the net migration rate of big cities increased steadily, while the net migration rate of rural areas and small cities decreased rapidly. In recent years, the process of urbanization in Russia has recovered from the anti-polarization stage in the crisis to the normal stage in the late 1980s. In addition, it should be noted that the rebound of migration rate in Russian big cities has a lot to do with the relaxation of access threshold and the aging population of big cities since the 1990s, which needs a large number of young laborers to supplement.
Third, the conclusion
Since the early 1990s, the development of urbanization in Russia has stagnated, and the level of urbanization once fell to the level of some developed and developing countries. The persistent economic recession and social unrest have greatly increased the mortality rate of Russian urban population, and young couples are reluctant to have children, resulting in negative population growth and aging problems, which have also appeared in western developed countries. Therefore, some scholars believe that Russia is developing to the anti-urbanization stage after experiencing a high level of urbanization, and the author proves this argument wrong through the above analysis. The anti-urbanization phenomenon in Russia in recent years is not the anti-urbanization stage experienced by western countries. On the contrary, Russia's good urbanization process was disrupted by the turmoil that lasted for more than ten years, and it only recovered with the economic recovery in recent years, but it still takes time to reach the mature stage of urbanization in western developed countries.