The research team sequenced the genome of 378 samples randomly selected from the patients admitted to Shanghai Public Health Center in autumn and winter of 2022, and found that the main strains included BF.7, BA.5.2 and BQ. 1 and XBB recently appeared in Europe and America, but no new COVID-19 mutant was found.
The research team analyzed the clinical evolution of 5706 patients with symptomatic COVID-19 infection in Shanghai Public Health Center from September 1 2022 to February 26, 2022, among which 3.03% patients developed into severe/critical illness.
According to COVID-19's whole genome sequence research, 95.95% of the genome sequences are concentrated in five genome subfamilies. Photo courtesy of Jiao Tong University School of Medicine
The results indicated that with the change of virus transmission route caused by the evolution of epidemic situation, many Omicron subtypes spread simultaneously in China. Among the people who have recently developed symptoms of COVID-19 infection, severe cases are mainly concentrated in the elderly with basic diseases. From New Year's Day to Spring Festival, COVID-19 epidemic will mainly affect rural areas and small and medium-sized towns. What deserves special attention is that the medical resources in rural areas and small and medium-sized towns in China are relatively scarce, and there are a large number of elderly people and people with basic diseases. During the period of Spring Festival travel rush, the mobility of urban and rural population will greatly affect the epidemic trend.
Serious diseases are mainly concentrated in the elderly with basic diseases.
In this paper, the research team sequenced the genome of 378 samples randomly selected from patients admitted to Shanghai Public Health Center in autumn and winter of 2022, and obtained 369 high-quality COVID-19 genome sequences.
The research and analysis found that these virus genomes * * * include 30 strains of Omicron subtype recorded in the global * * * All Influenza Data Initiative database, among which 355 genome sequences are concentrated in five Omicron subfamilies, and the main strains include BF.7 and BA.5.2 reported in Beijing and Guangzhou, and BQ. 1 and XBB recently appeared in Europe and America.
Combined with the travel history and infection contact history of infected people, it is proved that those who have a history of epidemic contact in Beijing or Guangzhou mainly carry BF.7 and BA.5.2 strains respectively. The infected people who entered Shanghai from abroad mainly carried BQ. 1 and XBB；; Besides BA.5.2, there are many strains of Omikrongya in Shanghai, accounting for a relatively high proportion. No new COVID-19 mutant was found in these results.
Because the task of fighting COVID-19 infection has been changed to the prevention and treatment of severe diseases, the research group analyzed the changes of the number of severe/critical patients and the total number of infected people in the wave of 20221October 29th 165438+, and found that the number of severe/critical patients increased with the increase of the number of infected people, with the proportion reaching 0.035%.
According to the general rule, the high-risk group evolved into severe/critical patients 2-3 weeks after admission. The research team analyzed the clinical evolution of 5706 patients with symptomatic COVID-19 infection in Shanghai Public Health Center from September/KLOC-0 to February 26, 2022.
Through comprehensive medical observation and diagnosis, 5533 patients showed mild and common symptoms, and the rest 173 patients progressed to severe/critical diseases, of which 20 patients were only infected with COVID-19, and 153 patients' basic diseases were aggravated by COVID-19 infection. In addition, the risk of serious/critical diseases of the elderly and male patients is significantly increased.
Using the mathematical model, the research team preliminarily predicted the epidemic trend of Omicron. Source map
It is predicted that during the period from New Year's Day to Spring Festival, the epidemic will mainly affect rural areas and small and medium-sized cities and towns.
This paper also makes a preliminary prediction of the popular trend of Omicron by using mathematical model.
Based on the data of infected people in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Chongqing and other places, this study established a mathematical model to simulate the change curve of infected people, evaluated and predicted the development trend of the recent epidemic, and preliminarily judged that the number of infected people in this round of Omicron epidemic tends to be flat around New Year's Day in 2023.
However, the mathematical simulation analysis based on the data of Chongqing's main city and suburbs shows that the peak of epidemic situation in suburbs is delayed, and during the peak period of Spring Festival travel rush, the peak of infection will be significantly enhanced due to the accelerated spread of epidemic situation.
For Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai and other provinces, it is expected that the peak of infection in rural areas and small and medium-sized towns will appear in the middle and late June of 2023, and these peaks may also come ahead of time due to the peak in Spring Festival travel rush.
According to the analysis of the research group, during the period from New Year's Day to Spring Festival, the epidemic situation in COVID-19 will mainly affect rural areas and small and medium-sized urban areas. What deserves special attention is that the medical resources in rural areas and small and medium-sized towns in China are relatively scarce, and there are a large number of elderly people and people with basic diseases. During the period of Spring Festival travel rush, the mobility of urban and rural population will greatly affect the epidemic trend.
Therefore, it is urgent to start the emergency plan for the spread of Omicron epidemic to rural areas, allocate more medical resources to rural grassroots units, do a good job in the emergency use license of effective drugs and new vaccines, and do a good job in the production, storage, distribution and clinical rational use of anti-COVID-19 specific drugs and auxiliary drugs as well as traditional Chinese medicines with definite curative effects. At the same time, it is necessary to implement classified and stratified treatment, strengthen the ability of severe treatment in small and medium-sized towns, continue to use non-drug public health measures accurately, and strive to reduce the peak of the epidemic and ease the heavy pressure on the medical system and medical staff.
In addition, the research group believes that it is necessary to continue the whole process of immunization for high-risk groups and start the fourth immunization booster vaccination for high-risk groups; Strengthen the popularization of personal family prevention and control knowledge and skills, do a good job in health promotion and risk communication, protect the lives and health of the people, especially the vulnerable groups, ensure China's smooth exit from the epidemic, and promote the orderly recovery and development of social economy.