(1) The current world economic recovery.
The global economic recovery has slowed down and the downside risks have increased. The unemployment rate in developed countries remains high and private demand is weak; The growth rate of emerging markets and developing countries has slowed down, and the situation facing macro-control is more complicated; The European sovereign debt crisis continues to escalate, the long-term sovereign credit rating of the United States has been downgraded, and the international financial market has repeatedly fluctuated greatly; At the same time, commodity prices fluctuated at a high level, and global inflationary pressure remained high.
The economic recovery in the United States has obviously slowed down. In the first two quarters of this year, the annual growth rate of the US economy was 0.4% and 1.0% respectively, which was much lower than the growth rate in each quarter of last year. The main reason for the slowdown in economic recovery is that the effect of stimulating fiscal policy and loose monetary policy is weakened, while the private sector continues to be weak and cannot effectively continue to stimulate economic growth. In the first quarter, private consumption in the United States increased by only 0.4% at an annual rate, driving economic growth by 0.3 percentage points, the lowest level since the recovery. Although US investment maintained positive growth in the first two quarters, the growth rates were only 3.8% and 6.4% respectively, far lower than the levels of 365,438+0.5% and 26.4% in the same period last year. In the second quarter, exports increased by 3. 1% at an annual rate, driving economic growth by 0.4 1 percentage point, which is also the lowest level since the recovery. At present, the employment situation in the United States is still grim, and the unemployment rate in August is still at a high level of 9. 1%.
The economic growth rate of the euro zone has dropped significantly, and the economic trends of various countries have intensified. Affected by the slowdown of economic growth in emerging market countries, high commodity prices and the further deepening of the sovereign debt crisis, the euro zone's economy grew by only 0.2% in the second quarter, significantly lower than the 0.8% in the first quarter. Among them, the industrial output index decreased by 0.7% in June, the highest decline since the second half of 2009.
Since the third quarter, the economic growth in the euro zone has remained weak, and the industrial output index in July was only the same as the average level in the first half of the year. At the same time, the economic trends of euro zone countries are more differentiated. The industrial output index of Italy, Spain and Portugal further declined in July, with the declines of 0.7%, 0.7% and 3.0% respectively. The German economy maintained a steady growth trend, with the industrial output index increasing by 4. 1% in July. The employment situation in the euro zone is still grim. In July, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was still as high as 10%, which was only 0.2 percentage point lower than the same period of last year. The unemployment rate in Spain rose to 2 1.2%, the highest level after the financial crisis.
Japan's economy continued to grow negatively in the first half of the year, but gradually showed signs of improvement. The earthquake, tsunami and nuclear leakage caused serious damage to Japanese production facilities and power supply shortage. In the first quarter, GDP decreased by 0.9% from the previous quarter. In March, industrial production decreased by as much as 15.5% month-on-month, exports dropped sharply, and foreign trade surplus decreased. In the second quarter, Japan's economy continued to decline, with a negative growth of 0.5% from the previous quarter. Among them, exports fell by as much as 4.9% month-on-month, and foreign trade turned into a deficit. Investment in private housing and investment in fixed assets of private enterprises decreased by 65438 0.8% and 0.9% respectively compared with the previous quarter.
With the gradual elimination of supply-side constraints caused by the earthquake and post-disaster reconstruction, Japan's economy has gradually shown signs of improvement. In April, May and June, industrial production continued to grow positively. In July, excluding seasonal factors, industrial production has returned to the pre-earthquake level. After falling by 8.0% in March and 7.0% in April, exports began to increase positively in May, and July was close to the pre-earthquake level. At the same time, the investment in fixed assets of enterprises has gradually recovered, and private consumption as a whole has shown an upward trend. Public investment increased with the development of post-disaster reconstruction. In the second quarter, government investment in fixed assets increased by 4.3%, which became the main driving force of economic growth. However, the Japanese economy is still not out of deflation. According to the latest revised data in August, the consumer price index excluding fresh food decreased by 0.8% and 0.3% in the first and second quarters respectively, and it was the same as last year in July.
The growth rate of major emerging market countries has generally declined. With the tightening of monetary policy and the slowdown of global economic growth, the economic growth rate of major emerging market countries has generally declined. Brazil's GDP in the second quarter increased by 3.2% year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, lower than the 4.2% and 3.2% in the first quarter; India's GDP in the second quarter increased by 7.7% year-on-year, lower than the growth rate of 7.8% in the first quarter, the lowest since1August; Russia's GDP growth rate in the second quarter dropped from 4. 1% in the first quarter to 3.4%. Mexico's economy grew by 3.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2009.
(b) Prospects for world economic trends
At present, the downside risk of the world economy is increasing, and the International Monetary Fund even thinks that the world economy is in a new dangerous stage, and recently lowered its forecast for world economic growth this year and next to 4.0% respectively. Judging from the development trend, although the European sovereign debt crisis may still deepen or even drag down the economic recovery in Europe and even the world, as long as the countries concerned make joint efforts to effectively deal with it, the world economy can still avoid a second recession, and it is expected to maintain a low growth trend next year.
1. The U.S. economic recovery will remain slow and it is unlikely to fall into recession again.
American economic recovery will remain slow. First of all, due to the high unemployment rate and rising inflation rate, the real income growth rate of residents has declined. In the first two quarters of this year, the actual disposable income of residents increased by 65,438 0.2% and 65,438 0.0% respectively, which was significantly lower than the growth rate in each quarter of last year. In August, the consumer confidence index dropped to 44.5, the lowest level since May 2009. Secondly, due to the overall economic downturn, investors' confidence is insufficient. In the second quarter, the confidence index of American CEO dropped sharply from 67 in the first quarter to 55. In July, the purchasing managers' index of American manufacturing industry dropped to 50.9, the lowest level since September 2009. At present, international organizations, the US government, economists and large commercial organizations have lowered their growth expectations for the US economy this year and next. In September, the IMF's forecasts for the annual growth rate of the US economy of 20 1 1 and 20 12 were lowered from 2.5% and 2.7% in June to 1.5% and 1.8% respectively. The September forecast of the White House Office of Budget and Management was lowered from 2.7% and 3.6% to 1.7% and 2.6% respectively. The survey of economists released by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve predicted that it would be lowered from 2.7% and 3.0% to 1.7% and 2.6% respectively. Citibank's August forecast was lowered from 1.7% and 2.7% to 1.6% and 2. 1% respectively.
The American economy is unlikely to fall into recession again. First of all, since June last year, 65438+ 10, American consumer credit has been growing at a positive annual rate. July this year is close to the level before the financial crisis, which is conducive to promoting the expansion of consumer demand. Secondly, from March to July this year, American house prices have been on the rise for five consecutive months. The rebound in house prices will help improve consumption power and investment confidence, and reduce the loss of bank mortgage loans. Third, American industrial production has been expanding since April this year. In July, the industrial production index and capacity utilization rate improved significantly. Fourth, the banking system in the United States is gradually improving. In the first two quarters of this year, the assets of commercial banks increased by 3.6% and 15.2% respectively. In the second quarter, the default rate of bank loans dropped to 1.68%, which was close to the level before the financial crisis. Fifth, the US fiscal stimulus has gained new space. On August 2 this year, Congress raised the federal government's debt ceiling, creating conditions for the US government to continue to implement the fiscal stimulus policy. On September 8, President Obama launched a $447 billion job creation plan to continue to inject momentum into the US economy through tax cuts and infrastructure investment. Sixth, US monetary policy will continue to be loose. The ultra-low level of the federal funds rate of 0-0.25% will be maintained until the end of June 20 13. The Federal Reserve announced that it would extend the maturity of 400 billion US dollars of national debt. In the future, the Fed may still take other measures to further relax the monetary environment.
2. The downside risks of the euro zone economy have increased.
Since the second quarter, the economic confidence index of the euro zone has continued to decline. August was 98.3, down 4.7 from July, and it was lower than the long-term average for the first time this year (100). Among 17 member countries, only Germany has an economic confidence index higher than the long-term average. It is predicted that the economic growth rate in the euro zone in 20 12 will be significantly lower than that in 20 1 1 year, which may even lead to negative growth due to the slowdown of global economic growth, the continuous deterioration of the financial situation in southern European countries, the possible further escalation of the European debt crisis, and the high commodity prices. In August, Goldman Sachs lowered the economic growth rate of the euro zone from 2% and 1.2% to 1.7% and 0.5%. In September, the International Monetary Fund lowered the GDP growth rate of 201and 20 12 in the euro zone from 2.0% and 1.7% in June to 1.6% and1.
Japan's economy will recover slowly.
Although Japan's economy will still experience negative growth this year, it is expected to recover gradually and slowly under the impetus of post-disaster recovery and reconstruction. The Bank of Japan predicts that the economy will resume positive growth in the third quarter of this year and enter a moderate recovery track in the fourth quarter. However, Japan's economy still faces challenges such as the slowdown of world economic recovery, the appreciation of the yen and the lack of endogenous growth momentum. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting in July lowered the economic growth rate from 0.6% to 0.4% in fiscal year 20 1 (the second quarter of this year-the first quarter of next year), and maintained it at 2.9% in fiscal year 20 12. The International Monetary Fund predicts that Japan's economy will decline by 0.5% this year, but it is expected to grow by 2.3% next year.
The growth rate of emerging economies will continue to slow down.
The economic situation in developed countries has deteriorated and the international capital market has fluctuated greatly, which has brought downward pressure on the economic growth of emerging economies. Since September, relevant countries and international institutions have lowered their economic growth forecasts for this year and next. Brazil's central bank lowered its GDP growth forecast from 3.84% to 3.79% this year and from 4% to 3.9% in 20 12. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has lowered the GDP growth rate this year from the original 4.2% to 4. 1%, and predicted that the rapid economic growth will not be earlier than 20 14 years. The latest estimate of the Bank of Mexico is that the economic growth rate this year is 3.8%-4.8%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous forecast. In its September report, the Asian Development Bank lowered India's economic growth forecast for this fiscal year (from April/KLOC-0 to the end of March next year) from 8.2% to 7.9%, and lowered its growth forecast for the next fiscal year from 8.8% to 8.3%.
Although the economic growth rate of emerging economies is also slowing down, it will still maintain rapid growth. Slowing global economic growth and weakening demand will curb the further rise of commodity prices and help alleviate the imported inflationary pressure and economic overheating in emerging economies. In addition, developed countries will extend the implementation time of low-interest monetary policy, and emerging economies may moderately relax excessively tight monetary policy to promote economic growth. In addition, the financial situation of emerging economies is generally significantly better than that of developed countries, and the policy space for stimulating domestic demand to support economic growth is still large. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the economies of emerging markets and developing countries will still grow by 6.4% and 6. 1% respectively this year and next, among which Russia will grow by 4.3% and 4. 1% respectively, India will grow by 7.8% and 7.5% respectively, Brazil will grow by 3.8% and 3.6% respectively, and sub-Saharan Africa will grow by 5.2% respectively.
Second, global inflationary pressure is still relatively high.
(a) Commodity prices will remain high and fluctuate violently.
Since the beginning of this year, commodity prices in the international market have fluctuated violently. At the beginning of the year, due to the rapid recovery of the world economy, the intensification of global excess liquidity and the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, commodity prices continued to rise. The price of new york West Texas light crude oil (WTI crude oil price) rose from 9 1 USD/barrel at the beginning of the year to11USD/barrel at the beginning of May, with an increase of 2 1%. The price of Brent crude oil in the North Sea (BRT crude oil price) rose from $95/barrel at the beginning of the year to1$26/barrel at the beginning of May, with an increase of 30%. Subsequently, due to a number of macroeconomic indicators showing that the global economic growth rate may slow down in the future, the market's expectations for the future supply and demand of commodities have eased, and global commodity prices have entered a high level and fluctuated slightly.
Since August, the market's concerns about the future global economic slowdown have further intensified. In addition, due to S&P's downgrade of the US debt rating and the rising risk of default on Italian and Spanish sovereign debt, the global financial market once fluctuated greatly, and a considerable amount of capital withdrew from the commodity market out of risk aversion. Commodity prices once fell sharply in a short time. New york West Texas crude oil price once dropped from about 100 USD/barrel at the end of July to about 80 USD/barrel at the end of August. However, the high fluctuation of commodity prices has not fundamentally changed. On September 6th, 2065438+0/kloc-0, new york West Texas light crude oil price closed at 87.05 USD/barrel, while Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures price closed at 500 USD/ton, still at a high level.
20 12 The global commodity price trend will still be affected by the fundamentals of supply and demand, global liquidity, the stability of international financial markets, the trend of the US dollar exchange rate and unexpected events, among which the fundamentals of supply and demand are the fundamental factors. The global economy is likely to maintain steady growth in 20 12 years, especially in emerging market countries, which will provide stable support for the growth of commodity demand. It is predicted that the overall commodity price will remain at a high level in 20 12 years. However, in 20 12, the risks faced by the global economy will further increase, the short-term fluctuations of financial markets will be more severe than in 20 1 12, and the fluctuation range of commodity prices may further increase in 20 12. If the balance sheets of the banking systems in the United States and the euro zone deteriorate again, resulting in a sharp decline in global economic growth, commodity prices may reappear the rapid decline after the 2008 financial crisis.
(b) Inflationary pressures in developed countries have increased significantly.
Inflationary pressure in the United States is rising. From May to July this year, the overall inflation rate in the United States remained at 3.6%, the highest since June 2008 165438+ 10. The rise in energy consumption prices is the main factor pushing up the overall inflation rate in the United States. From May to July, the year-on-year growth rate of consumer price index of energy for residents reached 2 1.5%, 20.65, 438+0% and 19% respectively. In July, the core inflation rate in the United States was 1.8%, which was close to the warning line of 2% of the Federal Reserve.
Inflation in the euro zone has risen sharply. The inflation rate in the euro zone was as high as 2.8% in April, and it is still at a high level of 2.5%, which greatly exceeds the warning line of 2% of the European Central Bank. The monthly report of the European Central Bank in September predicted that the inflation rate in the euro zone would be between 2.5% and 2.7% in 20 1 1 year. In 20 12, global commodity prices are likely to be in a state of high volatility, and the European Central Bank also needs to maintain a relatively loose monetary policy to stimulate economic growth. It is expected that the euro zone will still face some inflationary pressure.
(3) The inflation situation in emerging market countries is still grim.
In August, Brazil's consumer price index rose by 0.37% month-on-month, higher than 0. 16% in July. As of August, Brazil's consumer price index increased by 7.23% within 12 months, once again breaking the record of 6.87% in July and setting a new high since June 2005 (7.27%). Brazil's official inflation forecast for 20 1 1 is raised from 6.28% to 6.3 1%, and the inflation forecast for 20 12 is 5.20%, which is far from the inflation control target of 4.5%. South Korea's CPI rose by 5.3% year-on-year in August, hitting a three-year high; According to a survey by the central bank, consumers expect the inflation rate to reach 4.2% in the next 12 months, which is also the highest point in the past two and a half years. India's wholesale price index, which measures inflation, rose by 9.78% year-on-year in August, the highest level in a year, forcing the Bank of India to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points on September 16, which is the second rate hike by the Bank of India since last March. ADB's September report raised India's inflation forecast from 7.8% to 8.5% this fiscal year, and raised Asia's inflation forecast of 20 1 1 from the previous 5.3% to 5.8%, and pointed out that inflation will still be a challenge for Asian policymakers.
Third, the deepening and spread of the sovereign debt crisis triggered violent fluctuations in the financial market.
(a) The risk of further spread of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is rising.
Since the beginning of this year, the European debt crisis has further escalated. First, some countries are unable to repay their debts. Greece had a huge fiscal deficit for a long time before the crisis, and the fiscal stimulus policy implemented after the crisis greatly increased the scale of sovereign debt. From June 5438 to February 2009, the Greek sovereign debt crisis broke out, and the Greek government has been unable to pay off its due debts with its own financial resources since 20 10. Second, the crisis has spread to the core economies of the euro zone. With the rising scale of the sovereign debts of Spain and Italy, and the sustained economic downturn, the market's concern about the default of the sovereign debts of the two countries has obviously intensified. In September of 20 1 1, the yield spreads of Italian/German and Spanish/German government bonds widened obviously, and the yield spreads of Italian/German government bonds once reached an all-time high of 444 basis points. At the same time, the ratio of public debt to GDP of Germany and France, the two core economies in the euro zone, has also increased, and Standard & Poor's warned that the sovereign rating of France's long-term national debt may be downgraded. Third, the crisis has seriously affected the European banking industry. European banks have huge exposure to the "Euro-Pig Five", such as BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale, with their exposure to the "Euro-Pig Five" reaching 654.38+0983 billion, 654.38+0356 billion and 47 billion euros respectively. Once the sovereign debt of the "Euro-Pig Five" defaults, it will seriously worsen the balance sheets of major European banks. European banks are highly dependent on interbank loans for financing. Once the balance sheets of major banks begin to deteriorate, the interbank lending rate will rise sharply, and even a liquidity crisis may occur.
At present, the plan of the "European Pig Five" to reduce the fiscal deficit faces strong opposition at home. Germany, France and other core EU member countries are under pressure to oppose the government's use of taxpayers' money to rescue other countries, and the just-concluded EU finance ministers meeting has not reached a new agreement on the debt crisis. Against the background of weak economic growth in the euro zone and the continuous expansion of the sovereign debt scale of the "Euro-Pig Five", the European sovereign debt crisis will further escalate in 20 12. According to the internal report of BOC Hong Kong, 20 12-20 13 is still the peak period of the sovereign debt maturity of the "Euro-Pig Five", and the debt default risk of the "Euro-Pig Five" may be higher than 20 1 1.
However, it is unlikely that the European sovereign debt crisis will lead to the collapse of the European financial system and the disintegration of the euro zone. Once the euro zone breaks up, the whole of Europe will come to a standstill, and countries' right to speak in international affairs will also drop sharply, which will seriously endanger the recovery of the world economy. Therefore, although there are obvious differences in the positions of countries and international organizations, an effective short-term rescue plan will eventually be reached; In the medium and long term, the sovereign debt crisis will be gradually solved with the adjustment of the substantive financial system in the euro zone.
(b) The international financial market fluctuates greatly repeatedly.
Since mid-July, worries about the worsening of the European debt crisis and the "second recession" of the global economy have triggered repeated violent shocks in financial markets. On August 8, the first trading day after Standard & Poor's downgraded the US credit rating, global stock markets sold off, and the US Standard & Poor's 500 index closed down 6.6%, the biggest one-day drop since June 65438+February 2008. Germany's DAX index closed down 5%, France's CAC index fell 4.7%, and Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 3.4%. In the first two weeks of August, the market value of global stock markets shrank by about 4 trillion US dollars. On September 5th, the yields of Italian and Spanish 10-year government bonds suddenly rose, and the latest economic data of many countries weakened, which triggered the global stock market to plummet again. The US Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 14.5% from the year high reached at the end of April, and both Germany's DAX Index and Japan's Nikkei Index hit new lows in the year. As of September 15, compared with the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 index in the United States has dropped by 4.9%, the DAX index in Germany by 2 1%, the CAC index in France by 22%, the FTSE 100 index in London by10/.2%, and Japan.
Money poured into the gold and bond markets in search of safety. At the beginning of September, the price of gold once climbed to an all-time high of $65,438 +0.920 per ounce. On September 2nd, the yield of US Treasury bonds closed below 2% for the first time since 1950. On September 5th, the yield of 10-year German government bonds dropped to 1.85%, the lowest level ever. On the same day, the yield of Italian 10-year bonds rose to 5.58%, the highest since August 8. The yield of Spanish 10-year government bonds also rose to a one-month high of 5.328%.
The influx of safe-haven funds pushed the yen and Swiss franc to appreciate sharply. Although the Japanese authorities have intervened in the market twice this year, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar still hit a postwar high in mid-August, reaching a high of 1 US dollar against 75.95 yen. In order to curb the strong appreciation trend of the Swiss franc, the Swiss National Bank took tough measures in early September and set the lower limit of the euro against the Swiss franc at 1.2 Swiss franc. At the same time, some investors began to flee emerging markets. Since September 9, emerging market currencies began to depreciate against the US dollar, and central banks in South Korea, Indonesia, Brazil and other countries intervened in the market to prevent their currencies from falling rapidly. As of September 23rd, compared with the closing price of the exchange rate against the US dollar on September 8th, in just two weeks, the Korean won has fallen by 8.5%, the Indonesian rupiah by 6%, the Russian ruble by 9.3%, and the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso by 15.6% and 12.7% respectively.
Fourth, it is more difficult to coordinate global macro policies.
Developed countries have insufficient endogenous motivation and heavy debt burden, and there is little room for further fiscal stimulus, so they can only rely on loose monetary policy. The Federal Reserve publicly promised to keep the zero interest rate to 20 13, the European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at10.5%, the Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate at a historical low of 0.5%, and kept the bond purchase scale under the quantitative easing program unchanged at 200 billion pounds. As the global economic recovery slows down, the pace of monetary tightening in emerging economies slows down. The Turkish central bank took the lead in cutting interest rates in early August; On August 3rd1day, Brazil's central bank suddenly lowered the interest rate from 12.5% to 12%, ending the latest interest rate hike cycle that started at the beginning of the year. The central banks of Russia, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines all kept their policy interest rates unchanged, and only the Bank of India raised interest rates again in mid-September.
At present, in order to stimulate the economy, developed countries may further relax monetary policy; Emerging economies are still facing high inflationary pressures, and premature relaxation of austerity policies may lead to sustained price increases and excessive accumulation of asset bubbles, and monetary policy still needs to be biased towards austerity. At the same time, developed countries will continue to increase their intervention in currency appreciation in emerging economies, requiring emerging markets to expand domestic demand and increase imports; In the context of slowing global economic recovery and gradual decline in domestic economic growth, emerging markets need to avoid excessive appreciation of their currencies in order to maintain export competitiveness and promote steady economic growth. Therefore, there are differences and conflicts in the macro-control objectives and directions of various countries, and the difficulty of coordination will inevitably increase, and even trade wars and exchange rate wars may break out.