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Analysis of Macroeconomic Situation and Policy Orientation
In 2003, industrial production increased and rural economy developed steadily; Investment in fixed assets grew strongly, and household consumption continued to expand; The import and export of foreign trade increased substantially, and the utilization of foreign capital remained at a high level. Various reforms have also been promoted in an orderly manner, which has promoted the coordinated development of the regional economy. In 2004, the international environment facing China's economic development may be better than that in 2003. Major international economic organizations have generally raised their forecasts for 2004. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will grow by 4. 1%, the world trade will grow by 5.5%, and the OECD predicts that the world trade will grow by 7.8%, both higher than in 2003. These new changes in the international economy are conducive to the accelerated development of China. But at the same time, we should also see that there are still some uncertain factors in the development of the world economy, which affect the stable recovery of the global economy.
I. Remarkable achievements in economic and social development in 2003
In 2003, faced with the complicated and changeable international situation, the sudden outbreak of atypical pneumonia and frequent natural disasters, the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Hu Jintao as the general secretary calmly responded, made decisive decisions, made timely adjustments, firmly grasped the development of this party's top priority in governing and rejuvenating the country, mobilized and organized the people of the whole country, overcame various difficulties, won a major victory in the fight against SARS, defeated various natural disasters, and maintained a good momentum of rapid economic growth and all-round development of social undertakings. It is preliminarily estimated that the annual GDP will exceed 1 1 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of about 8.5%, and the per capita GDP will exceed 1 10,000 USD for the first time. The quality and efficiency of economic growth have been further improved, and fiscal revenue has increased even more throughout the year. Industrial enterprises have achieved substantial profit growth.
The growth of industrial production has accelerated and the rural economy has developed steadily. Heavy industry continues to be faster than light industry, and high-tech manufacturing industries such as electronic information, transportation equipment and electrical machinery have become the leading forces for industrial growth. Raw coal and electricity production continued to maintain rapid growth. The level of industrial production and marketing convergence has been further improved. Agricultural quality, regionalization and industrialization have been continuously promoted, and animal husbandry and aquaculture have developed rapidly. The state has further increased investment in rural "six small" projects, rural medical care and education, and the production and living conditions in rural areas have been improved.
Investment in fixed assets grew strongly, and household consumption continued to expand. The investment in fixed assets of the whole society is expected to increase by 23% in the whole year. The national debt investment is further inclined to key areas such as improving rural infrastructure, starting the construction of public health facilities, promoting coordinated regional development, strengthening environmental protection and ecological construction, and promoting technological progress. The enthusiasm of industrial enterprises for technological transformation has been continuously improved, private investment has become more active, and the growth factors of investment autonomy have been enhanced. Residents' consumption once fell sharply under the impact of SARS, but recovered quickly after SARS, and it is expected to increase by 9% for the whole year. The pace of upgrading the consumption structure has accelerated, and residents' consumption expenditure on automobiles, communications and housing has increased substantially.
The import and export of foreign trade increased substantially, and the utilization of foreign capital remained at a high level. It is estimated that the total import and export volume of foreign trade in the whole year will reach 840 billion US dollars. In the total export, the export of mechanical and electrical products accounts for more than 50%, and the export of high-tech products and traditional products such as clothing and shoes has further expanded. Imports of crude oil, refined oil, steel and automobiles increased substantially. Compared with the previous year, the annual trade surplus has decreased. By further broadening the fields of foreign investment and improving the investment environment, the actual utilization of foreign direct investment continues to maintain a high level. New progress has been made in implementing the "going out" strategy, and foreign contracted projects and labor cooperation have expanded. The RMB exchange rate is basically stable, and the country's foreign exchange reserves continue to increase.
Various reforms have been carried out in an orderly manner, and the efforts to promote the coordinated development of regional economy have been continuously increased. The reform of government institutions has been steadily advanced, the reform of state-owned assets management system has taken important steps, the framework of financial separation supervision system has basically taken shape, and the construction of food safety and safety production supervision system has been strengthened. Reforms in power, telecommunications, civil aviation and other industries were implemented steadily. Rural reform was further deepened. New progress has been made in the development of the western region, and ecological environment protection and key project construction in the western region have been actively promoted. The adjustment and transformation of the old industrial base in Northeast China began.
Various social undertakings have developed steadily, and people's lives have continued to improve. Increase investment in national debt, speed up the construction of public health system, and further improve the conditions for running basic education in rural areas. The development of science and technology has made great achievements in some fields, and the first manned space flight was a complete success. The income of urban and rural residents continued to increase. Positive results have been achieved in employment and re-employment, with more than 8 million new jobs in cities and towns throughout the year. Social security work was further strengthened.
Second, the overall requirements of economic development environment and economic work in 2004
In 2004, the international environment facing China's economic development may be better than that in 2003. Major international economic organizations have generally raised their forecasts for 2004. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will grow by 4. 1%, the world trade will grow by 5.5%, and the OECD predicts that the world trade will grow by 7.8%, both higher than in 2003. These new changes in the international economy are conducive to the accelerated development of China. But at the same time, we should also see that there are still some uncertain factors in the development of the world economy, which affect the stable recovery of the global economy.
From the domestic point of view, the national economy still has the conditions for rapid development: (1) the policy effect of expanding domestic demand will be further manifested, the material and technological foundation of economic development will be continuously strengthened, and the effective supply capacity will be significantly improved; (2) The continuous expansion of opening to the outside world has enabled us to make full use of two markets and two resources, and the space for economic development and room for manoeuvre has been expanding; (3) Implementing the Decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee on Several Issues Concerning the Perfection of the Socialist Market Economic System will gradually eliminate some institutional and institutional obstacles that have hindered development for many years, give full play to the development potential of enterprises of various ownership, and provide new impetus for economic development; (4) After years of practice, the country's macro-control experience is more abundant, and its ability to control complex situations is further enhanced.
However, we should also see that there are still some difficulties and problems in economic development: First, the income growth of farmers is slow, especially in major grain producing areas and pure farmers, and the income gap between urban and rural areas continues to widen. Grain output continues to decline, and the problem of emphasizing agriculture over grain in some places is more prominent. Second, the employment situation is still grim. The newly created jobs cannot meet the employment needs of urban and rural residents, and the social security pressure is great. Third, some industries and regions tend to invest blindly and expand at a low level. The problem of blindly setting up development zones in some places is more prominent. The situation of extensive management such as high energy consumption, waste of resources and environmental pollution is more serious, and the contradiction of resource constraints is increasingly prominent. Fourth, credit is put in quickly, and the structure of loan investment in the industry is not reasonable. Fifth, the economic and social development is not coordinated enough, and the development of public services cannot meet the growing needs of the people. Sixth, the intensification of international trade protectionism makes it more difficult for China to expand its exports, and the utilization of foreign capital will also face more intense international competition.
In order to consolidate the current good situation of economic and social development, focus on solving the prominent contradictions in economic life and actively respond to various challenges, the Central Economic Work Conference determined that the overall requirements of economic work in 2004 are: under the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory and Theory of Three Represents, fully implement the spirit of the 16th National Congress and the Third Plenary Session of the 16th Central Committee, adhere to the people-oriented principle, establish the guiding ideology of building a well-off society in an all-round way, coordinate the sustainable development concept, deepen reform and opening up, grasp the overall situation, and resolve contradictions according to stable policies and appropriate adjustments. Adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, protect, guide and give play to the enthusiasm of all parties for accelerating development, and effectively shift the focus of work to adjusting the economic structure, changing the growth mode, and improving the quality and efficiency of growth, so as to achieve sustained, rapid, coordinated and healthy development of the national economy and all-round social progress.
Three. Policy Orientation and Main Measures of Macro-control in 2004
The year 2004 is an important year to fully implement the spirit of the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Third Plenary Session of the 16th Central Committee, and also a crucial year to achieve the objectives of the 10th Five-Year Plan. We should further strengthen and improve macro-control, strengthen economic monitoring and early warning and economic operation adjustment, and actively do all kinds of work in accordance with the arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference.
(1) Adhere to the basic orientation of macro-control policies and correctly grasp the strength and focus of policies. In 2004, we will maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand, and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. At the same time, according to the changes in the situation, we should adjust the intensity and focus of policy implementation in a timely and appropriate manner, solve outstanding contradictions and problems in economic operation in a targeted manner, and strive to maintain steady economic growth and avoid ups and downs. In the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy, taking into account the needs of maintaining stability, promoting development and promoting reform, as well as the requirements of strengthening the construction of public infrastructure and public welfare projects, we should continue to issue a certain number of long-term construction treasury bonds, focusing on adjusting the economic structure with treasury bonds. Promote the role of coordinated development, increase support for rural infrastructure such as "six small" projects, public medical and health system, basic education and grass-roots political power construction, western development and adjustment and transformation of old industrial bases in Northeast China, ecological construction and environmental protection, and ensure the construction of major national debt projects under construction. We will intensify the structural adjustment of fiscal expenditure, focusing on supporting agriculture, rural areas and farmers, public health, employment and social security. We will continue to implement zero growth in general expenditure and curb "image projects" and "performance projects" in some local construction. Study and establish a sound government public investment mechanism, form a stable source of government public investment funds that meets the requirements of economic and social development, and gradually solve the problem that the country has owed too much in public infrastructure construction, social development, ecological construction, environmental protection and other aspects for many years.
Continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, give full play to the macro-control function of monetary policy, comprehensively use various monetary policy tools, and pay attention to "pre-adjustment" and "fine-adjustment" to promote the reasonable growth of the total amount of money and credit. Strengthen the coordination of credit policies and industrial policies, encourage and guide commercial banks to adjust their credit structure, and increase credit support for promoting structural adjustment, expanding consumption and increasing employment. Expand the proportion of direct financing. Strengthen financial supervision. Improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate on a reasonable and balanced basis.
(2) Strive to increase farmers' income and attach great importance to food security. Coordinate urban and rural development, continue to take solving the "three rural issues" as the top priority of economic work, pay more attention to the countryside, care for farmers and support agriculture. (1) Implement the strictest farmland protection system. Carry out law enforcement inspection of basic farmland protection nationwide to stop the indiscriminate occupation and abuse of cultivated land. (2) Resolutely correct the tendency of neglecting grain production, increase the sown area of grain, maintain and improve the comprehensive grain production capacity of the main producing areas, increase investment in the transformation of low-and medium-yield fields and the construction of existing large-scale commodity grain production bases, and focus on strengthening the construction of small and medium-sized rural infrastructure. The main sales areas should also protect basic farmland and maintain the necessary comprehensive grain production capacity. (3) Steadily promote the adjustment of agricultural structure. Accelerate the pace of high-quality and regionalization of agricultural products, strengthen agricultural science and technology reserves, improved seed breeding and technology popularization, and improve the output and quality of agricultural products. Actively develop animal husbandry. Promote agricultural industrialization and the development of leading enterprises. (4) Strive to increase farmers' cash income. Focus on providing services for farmers to go out to work, increase the inspection and punishment of arrears and deduction of migrant workers' wages, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of migrant workers. State-supported investment in rural project construction should specifically collect remuneration from farmers. Further deepen the reform of the grain circulation system, and change the indirect subsidies through the circulation link into a direct subsidy for grain farmers. Accelerate the reform of rural taxes and fees, abolish all taxes on agricultural specialties except tobacco taxes, and reduce the agricultural tax rate by 1 percentage point on average. Strive to increase the per capita net income of farmers by 5% in 2004, and reduce the tax burden compared with the previous year.
(3) Strengthen guidance and regulation, and restrain blind investment and low-level expansion. Adhere to the market orientation, pay more attention to the use of information means to guide, economic means to adjust, legal means to standardize, supplemented by necessary administrative means, and promote the healthy development of steel, automobile, electrolytic aluminum, cement and other industries. (1) Accelerate the formulation and improvement of industry development plans and industrial policies, improve and strictly implement industry access standards, establish an industry information release system, and guide the investment direction of local and enterprises. (2) Give full play to the role of the market mechanism in eliminating the fittest, promote joint reorganization of enterprises, accelerate structural optimization and upgrading, promote the development of dominant enterprises, and eliminate backward production capacity. (3) Improve the land management system and strictly manage the land use. Any construction project that does not meet the industry planning and industrial policies and fails to meet the industry access standards shall not use the land. Continue to clean up and rectify various development zones. (4) Strengthen the coordination and cooperation between financial institutions and macro-control departments, and guide commercial banks to actively support production enterprises and construction projects with market and benefits that meet the requirements of environmental and ecological protection according to industrial policies and industrial development guidance catalogues; For blind investment, low-level expansion of outstanding areas of construction projects, we must strictly examine loans.
(4) More emphasis should be placed on expanding employment and efforts should be made to create more employment opportunities. Conscientiously implement the policies and measures determined by the central authorities and continue to pay attention to employment and reemployment. (1) governments at all levels should establish and improve the responsibility system for employment and reemployment, and increase support for reemployment. Improve the statistical system of employment and unemployment. (2) create favorable conditions in taxation, financing and market access, vigorously develop labor-intensive industries, actively support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and private economy, and fully tap and give play to the potential of the tertiary industry to absorb labor. (3) Increase the support for the separation of main and auxiliary industries and the reorganization of auxiliary industries of large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises, make full use of the non-main assets, idle assets and effective assets of closed bankrupt enterprises, create new jobs and resettle laid-off workers. Deepen the reform of labor management, household registration system and social security system, and accelerate the cultivation of a unified and standardized labor market throughout the country. Improve the employment service and training system, encourage flexible employment and self-employment, and improve the reemployment assistance system.
(5) Promote and expand residents' consumption and continue to expand domestic demand. We should actively create conditions to further develop the consumption demand potential of urban and rural residents and lay a solid foundation for sustained and stable economic development. The first is to enhance the consumption power of low-and middle-income people. We should not only promote farmers' income through multiple channels, but also strive to increase the income of low-and middle-income people in cities and towns, raise and strictly implement the minimum wage standards in different regions, and increase the adjustment of income redistribution and support for difficult groups. The second is to improve the consumption environment. Strengthen the construction of rural infrastructure, commodity circulation facilities and commercial outlets, and accelerate the promotion of urban and rural electricity consumption with the same network and price. Continue to expand the scale of consumer credit. The hearing system shall be implemented for the decision-making on the price and charge of medical services in non-compulsory education, and the price and charge shall be determined reasonably. We will continue to rectify and standardize the market economic order, crack down on counterfeiting and commercial fraud, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. The third is to cultivate and expand consumption hotspots to meet different levels and diversified consumption needs. Increase the supply of low-priced ordinary commodity housing, establish and improve the low-rent housing system, and promote the transaction of stock housing. Encourage residents to consume cars. Promote universal telecommunications services and promote telecommunications consumption in rural and remote areas. We will continue to improve tourism infrastructure and services, develop sports and cultural industries, and encourage residents to expand tourism, fitness and cultural consumption.
(6) Adhere to structural adjustment as the main line and effectively change the mode of economic growth. Continue to promote the strategic adjustment of the economic structure and enhance the stamina of economic development. We should guide all sectors to do what they can, overcome the tendency of simply pursuing speed, rushing for success and consuming too much resources in economic development, and earnestly take improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth as the focus of economic work. (1) Marketization accelerates the pace of industrial upgrading. Adopt advanced and applicable technologies to transform traditional industries and vigorously develop equipment manufacturing industry. Actively promote high-tech industrialization and gradually form high-tech industries with core technologies and independent intellectual property rights. (2) Efforts should be made to ease the bottleneck of economic development. Speed up power grid construction, do a good job in power dispatching and increase power supply; Accelerate the construction of large coal bases and intensify the exploration and development of important mineral resources; Reasonably allocate transportation capacity and speed up the construction of important transportation trunk lines and hubs. (3) In accordance with the requirements of coordinating the harmonious development between man and nature, make economic development adapt to population, resources and environment, do a good job in the conservation and comprehensive utilization of land, water, energy and important raw materials, and accelerate the technological transformation of water-saving and energy-saving in key industries such as metallurgy, petrochemicals, building materials and papermaking.
Coordinate regional development, and gradually form a pattern of East-West interaction, complementary advantages and mutual promotion. We will improve the policies and measures for the large-scale development of the western region, continue to strengthen the construction of infrastructure and ecological environment, and strive to develop characteristic economy and advantageous industries. Give full play to the location and economic advantages of the central region and support the central and western regions to accelerate reform and development. Continue to increase the opening up of the eastern region, and enhance the level of industrial technology and international competitiveness. Actively implement the strategy of revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China and concentrate on the adjustment and transformation of key areas, key advantageous industries, key industries and enterprises. Vigorously promote the economic transformation of resource-based cities.
(7) Intensify reform and investment to promote the development of social undertakings. According to China's basic national conditions and development stages, focus on key points and accelerate the development of science, education, culture and health. (1) Do a good job in the construction of disease prevention and control system, medical treatment system for public health emergencies and health law enforcement supervision system. Gradually establish and improve the rural medical and health system, and do a good job in the pilot work of the new rural cooperative medical system. (2) Take rural education as the top priority of education, increase investment, and guarantee the right of rural school-age children to receive compulsory education. Accelerate the construction of "two basics" in the western region and intensify the renovation of dilapidated houses in rural primary and secondary schools. Promote the adjustment of the discipline structure of higher education, vigorously develop vocational education and continuing education, and speed up the training of talents in short supply. (3) Do a good job in the preparation of medium and long-term science and technology planning. Strengthen the national innovation system and the construction of national science and technology infrastructure, and gradually increase the proportion of research and experimental development expenditure to GDP. Support the development of private scientific and technological enterprises. (four) to promote the reform of cultural system and mechanism innovation, encourage multi-channel capital investment, and guide and promote the coordinated development of cultural undertakings and cultural industries. (5) Do a good job in the protection of population, resources and environment.
(eight) efforts to expand foreign trade exports, improve the quality of foreign capital utilization and water year. Coordinate the relationship between domestic economic development and opening to the outside world. (1) Further macro-control of import and export. Cultivate domestic dominant brands and improve the technical content and added value of export products. Reform the system of import and export chambers of commerce and improve services to enterprises. Strengthen the balance and management of import and export of important commodities, and continue to crack down on smuggling activities. Improve the early warning system of industrial damage. Strengthen foreign negotiations and effectively deal with international trade frictions. (2) further improve the investment environment, pay attention to improving the quality of attracting foreign investment, and combine the utilization of foreign capital with the adjustment and optimization of domestic industrial structure and the reorganization and transformation of state-owned enterprises. To study policies and measures to standardize the development of development zones and promote their healthy development. (3) Strengthen the planning guidance of overseas investment cooperation and promote the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. Actively develop multinational companies in China. Fully implement and gradually improve the arrangement of closer economic and trade relations between the mainland and Hong Kong, Macao and the mainland.
(9) Conscientiously implement the deployment of the Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee and further deepen various reforms. Take advantage of the favorable opportunity of rapid economic growth and relaxed development environment to study and solve deep-seated institutional and institutional problems. It is necessary to coordinate the interests of all parties in the process of reform, pay attention to the relationship between reform intensity, development speed and social affordability, and promote various reforms in a focused and step-by-step manner. (1) Accelerate the adjustment of the layout and structure of the state-owned economy, establish and improve the supervision and management system of state-owned assets, develop large companies and enterprise groups with international competitiveness, and continue to liberalize and invigorate state-owned small and medium-sized enterprises. We will promote the standardized shareholding system reform of state-owned enterprises and develop mixed ownership economy and non-public ownership economy. We will improve the management system reform of telecommunications, electric power, civil aviation and other industries, steadily promote the reform of postal services, railways and other industries, and accelerate the marketization of municipal public utilities. (2) Earnestly implement the Administrative Licensing Law and continue to promote the reform of the administrative examination and approval system. Do a good job in the reform of the investment system, further establish the dominant position of enterprises as investors, and allow private capital to enter industries and fields that are not prohibited by laws and regulations such as infrastructure and public utilities. (3) Steadily promote fiscal, taxation, financial and price reforms. Gradually implement the transformation of value-added tax from production to consumption, and reform the export tax rebate mechanism. Improve the supervision mechanism of financial enterprises, deepen the reform of financial enterprises, and establish and improve the internal control mechanism. Select qualified wholly state-owned commercial banks to implement standardized joint-stock reform and further do a good job in the pilot reform of rural credit cooperatives. We will introduce supporting measures for electricity price reform and improve the price formation mechanism of water, oil and natural gas. (4) Accelerate the reform of the social security system and improve the basic old-age insurance system combining social pooling with individual accounts. Actively explore the reform of social security system in government agencies and institutions.
(10) Caring for people's lives and maintaining social stability. Adhere to the people-oriented principle, and take safeguarding the vital interests of the people as the starting point and the end result of economic work. Starting with the most realistic, concerned and direct problems of the people, we will do everything possible to help them solve the difficulties and problems in production and life. (1) Continue to consolidate the "two guarantees", standardize the minimum living guarantee for urban residents, and properly solve the practical difficulties of urban poor families in schooling, medical care and housing for their children. (2) Strengthen poverty alleviation and development in rural areas, expand the scale of work-based relief, and standardize the rural social assistance system. Do a good job in tax relief for disaster-stricken areas and poor households, and effectively solve the production and living difficulties of people in disaster areas. (3) Further improve and implement various systems and measures for safe production, and resolutely curb the occurrence of major safety accidents. (4) Effectively maintain social stability and severely crack down on various criminal offences. Do a good job in people's letters and visits, and put the work of solving the vital interests of the people into the track of standardization, institutionalization and legalization.
Chapter II: Comments on the current macroeconomic situation and policies.
Abstract: The debate about whether China's economy is overheated has been endless since the second quarter of 2003, and the intervention of media hype and the voice from abroad have heated up this hot spot. From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, with the basic clarity of the economic growth pattern in 2003, the discussion on this issue has once again become "hot" around the macroeconomic trend and macro-policy orientation in 2004. Because this discussion will have an impact on microeconomic activities and macro-decision-making, it is of obvious practical significance to sort out and summarize its main viewpoints and propositions.
The debate about whether China's economy is overheated has been endless since the second quarter of 2003, and the intervention of media hype and the voice from abroad have made this hot spot even more heated. From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, with the basic clarity of the economic growth pattern in 2003, the discussion on this issue has once again become "hot" around the macroeconomic trend and macro-policy orientation in 2004. Because this discussion will have an impact on microeconomic activities and macro-decision-making, it is of obvious practical significance to sort out and summarize its main viewpoints and propositions.
First, different judgments on whether the economy is overheated.
Most controversial issues are mostly related to the unclear meaning or boundary of the problem. The same is true of this debate about whether the economy is overheating. Judging from the relationship between total supply and total demand, there are only two different judgments on whether the macro economy is "overheated" or "not overheated", that is, whether the total demand (growth) exceeds the total supply (growth). However, there are many different views on this issue at present. The main points can be summarized as follows:
1. Think that the economy is overheating.
It is some economists who put forward this view, which initially caused the debate about economic overheating. The main basis of this view is that the economic growth rate is too fast and the prices of means of production are rising; Behind it is the increase in money supply and loans. For example, by the end of July, 2003, broad money (M2) increased by 20.7% and loans from financial institutions increased by 23.2%, both reaching a high level. In this regard, even Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made it clear at the congressional hearing held on July 6, 2003 that China needs to control the growth of money supply to avoid inflation. At the same time, some foreign economists who study China also published articles, pointing out that China's economy is overheated.
2. Think that the economy is only partially overheated.
Other economists believe that the economy is only partially overheated, and it cannot be said to be "overheated" or generally overheated. The main manifestations of local overheating are: the investment in fixed assets grows too fast (the investment growth rate exceeds 30%); Some industries (such as real estate, steel, building materials, automobiles, etc. ) overheated investment and development; The development zone construction (enclosure) in many areas is overheated; Investment led by local governments is overheated. This view may be more mainstream. Most foreign newspapers and foreign economists' comments on China's economy also tend to this view, arguing that the current overheating of China's economy is mainly an investment overheating.
Another view of local overheating theory is that excessive money supply flows to the asset market, which leads to overheating and price increase in the asset market headed by real estate, while the consumer goods market does not.
3. Think that the current economic overheating is an "atypical" overheating.
Some scholars believe that China's economy has entered an overheated state at present, but this kind of overheating is different from the past and most countries in the world, and it is an inflation-free overheating.
This view puts forward that we should not talk about economic overheating in general, but divide economic overheating into rational economic overheating and irrational economic overheating; It is necessary to find out whether rational economic overheating or irrational economic overheating has the upper hand. Moreover, from the microscopic mechanism of the current economic overheating, the endogenous market-driven model is the main one, and the exogenous government-driven model is the secondary one, which is the difference between this economic overheating and the past. Generally speaking, the current economic "overheating" is both rational and irrational, but the former exceeds the latter; It belongs to both endogenous market-driven economic overheating and exogenous government-driven economic overheating, but the former exceeds the latter; It is very different from the previous economic overheating, and has some similarities with the previous economic overheating, but the former exceeds the latter; Therefore, this is an atypical economic overheating that is completely different from the previous economic overheating.
However, although there is some truth in this view, it seems that the objective phenomenon of "economic overheating", that is, the total demand exceeds the total supply growth, has been transformed into a subjective and microscopic analysis, which deviates from the analysis track of macroeconomics and is not entirely discussing the same problem.
4. Think that there is no overheating problem in the economy.
There are also a large number of economists who disagree or firmly deny that the economy is overheated. Their main viewpoints and bases are as follows:
It is unrealistic to say that the economy is overheated now. At present, there is no problem of overheating of economic growth rate and price increase level. China has a vast market and investment space. The development of the western region is only in the primary stage, and the revitalization of the old industrial base in Northeast China has just begun. Such a huge market can fully support investment growth, and China's economy will maintain rapid growth.
-This round of economic expansion in China is very different from that before 10. The mechanism of economic expansion in 2003 is different from that of 1992. The economic growth rate in the first three quarters has not reached the average annual level of 9.4% since the reform and opening up, so it is impossible to make a simple judgment on the current economic operation as a whole. The speculation that the economy is "overheated" is very harmful to the operation of the economy.
-there is no basis for judging economic overheating. For example, the economic growth rate is lower than the potential growth capacity; The level of price increase is still low; As an economic barometer, the stock market is depressed and the stock price continues to fall; The short-term increase in the prices of means of production belongs to the recovery increase; The final consumption growth is weak, and the weak consumption tendency of residents has become an important factor restricting economic growth; There is no shortage of funds and interest rates are still at the lowest level in history; The rapid growth of loans is the result of the large difference between deposits and loans caused by the reluctance of loans in previous years, and it is the recovery growth after the tightening of loans. Without the change of loans, the change of money supply (from M0 to M2) cannot explain the practical problems of China's economic operation; The rapid growth of fixed assets investment has not caused a sharp rise in investment prices; The overall supply and demand pattern of the national economy is still oversupply; There is no obvious "bottleneck" constraint except that the supply of electricity and steel is relatively tight; There is no obvious "bubble" in the field of economic operation; In the high growth period, the supply and demand of real estate, automobile, steel and other industries grew in harmony, and the development speed was high, but it did not overheat, nor did it cause overheating of economic operation; There are specific reasons for the sharp rise in the prices of individual energy and raw materials products in the short term, which are not so much economic overheating as structural problems.
-Denying the "theory of economic overheating" from the process of economic growth itself. The reasons are as follows: China's economy has entered a new development cycle. Compared with the continuous decline of growth rate in previous years, the current rebound is a manifestation of the law of economic development itself, and this momentum is inevitable or even artificially violated; Look at the macroeconomic situation not only one year or one quarter, but also the long-term trend. To achieve a well-off society in an all-round way in the next 20 years, we must maintain an average annual growth rate of 7.2%, and high-speed growth is possible and inevitable in some years; We can't simply compare China's economic growth with that of foreign countries. There is moisture in our economic growth and there is the problem of double counting. At present, there are five synchronous phenomena in economic growth, including: economic growth is synchronized with structural adjustment, with the improvement of economic benefits, with the growth of national fiscal revenue, with the growth of urban residents' income, and with domestic economic growth and foreign-related economic growth.