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China will enter a period of normalization of negative population growth.
Recently, the fertility problem in China has been widely concerned by the society. June 65438+1October 65438+In July this year, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the population of China decreased by 850,000 by the end of 2022 compared with the previous year, which also means that China will enter a period of normalization of negative population growth.
This reality of population development makes it more urgent to raise the social fertility rate in China. In this context, it was once again proposed to reduce the legal age of marriage to 18 to stimulate fertility, which triggered discussion.
In fact, as early as 20 19, when the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) was deliberating the draft civil code on marriage and family, some members put forward this proposal, so as to adjust the declining number of marriages and the rising trend of aging. For a time, this news quickly became a hot search.
However, from a legal point of view, the Civil Code stipulates that a natural person over the age of 18 is an adult with full capacity for civil conduct and can conduct civil legal acts independently. Marriage right is a basic civil right. Therefore, lowering the legal age of marriage to 18 is of great significance for restoring rights to the people and giving them the right to protect the marriage and family rights of adults.
Under the background of late marriage and low fertility rate, whether the measures to reduce the legal age of marriage to 18 have obvious effect on improving fertility rate remains to be verified in reality.
We should strategically attach importance to and promote the improvement or stability of fertility rate.
Du Peng, vice president of China Population Society and vice president of China Renmin University, said in an exclusive interview with China News Service's "Face to Face with China Focus" recently that the population aging in China will accelerate in the next decade, and we should attach strategic importance to and promote the improvement or stability of the fertility rate in response to the "aging of fewer children".
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2022, the population aged 60 and over in China will reach 280 million, accounting for 19.8% of the total population, of which the population aged 65 and over will reach 200 million, accounting for 14.9% of the total population. At the same time, by the end of 2022, the national population will be reduced by 850,000 compared with the end of last year, which is the first negative population growth in China since 6 1 year.
What preparations should China make when the "aging of fewer children" is the norm and the population structure is "decreasing and increasing"?
Du Peng said that as early as 2006, the national level had proposed to actively respond to the aging of the population, which later became a national strategy. The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China（CPC）'s report included "reducing the cost of childbirth, parenting and education" and "implementing a national strategy to actively deal with the aging population" as part of promoting the construction of a healthy China.
"From a practical point of view, in recent years, we have been constantly exploring and solving the problem of' one old and one young', such as constantly improving the birth policy, exploring the care of the whole people, and promoting educational equity. And alleviate the anxiety or parenting costs of young people in school choice and extracurricular counseling. "
In addition, Du Peng believes that the role of pension measures is also closely related to improving the fertility rate.
"The first child in the family is usually brought by the elderly. If the second child is still taken care of by the elderly, the elderly will have 8- 10 years to take care of the children, which poses a new challenge: whether the elderly are willing to help the children bear the responsibility of raising them. "
Du Peng said, just like providing for the aged, there will be many social security problems, such as how to promote the elderly and their children to live together, how to give young people preferential tax, how to solve the problem of medical insurance for the elderly in different places, and so on. In these aspects, the state has been constantly improving relevant measures.
Many countries in the world are exploring how to deal with the "aging of fewer children". What experience can China learn from other countries?
"In recent years, we are also learning measures to encourage fertility in some countries. But in general, what we need to do is: first, pay attention to it strategically, pay attention to and promote the improvement or stability of fertility rate strategically; The second is comprehensive policy, not just focusing on one aspect; Third, learn from the experience of others, combine our own national conditions and learn from the good experiences of different countries. In the final analysis, China still has to find its own way.