Seeing someone on the Internet drying out the lessons of financing for the new public security;
Hong Kong stocks are biased towards retail investors, which basically gives retail investors a head start. As shown in the figure, anyone who subscribes for 65,438+000 shares can win 65,438+000 shares.
If you subscribe for 4000 shares, 100% will get 1 lot, and the other 70% will get 100 shares (1907/2723=70%).
If you subscribe for 30,000 shares, you can win 300 shares at 100%, then there is a 30% probability (69 1/2303 = 30%) to win 100 shares.
So it seems good for Hong Kong stocks to invest a little money and choose some familiar hot stocks to earn some pocket money ~
In addition, I saw an article about Yunfeng Finance, and put forward some suggestions on stock selection of new shares. You can also refer to it ~
Hong Kong stocks hit a new high, earning 60% this year? Five minutes to teach you the correct posture.
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Nothing in the world is difficult for one who sets his mind to it. Investment itself is certainly not easy, otherwise how can 80% people lose money? However, as long as investors are willing to spend time, they can still get some interesting operational ideas through data analysis. If you really don't have time, take five minutes to read this new instruction, and maybe you can learn more interesting operations.
The east is not bright and the west is bright.
New shares are the first step for investors to contact listed companies. Judging from the recent data, the practice that A shares and new shares must earn remains the same, but the winning rate of new shares is only between 0.0 14%-0.029%. What is this concept? It is said that the probability of China and his wife giving birth to twins is 1. 1%, and the probability of giving birth to triplets is 0.01.26%-in other words, it is probably between giving birth to triplets and giving birth to twins. Of course, children can only be born once every ten months, and new shares can be played dozens of times a year, and the hit rate will be higher.
A shares are in trouble. What about Hong Kong stocks separated by a river?
Before sharing the strategy, take 1 minute to learn about the new mechanism and model of Hong Kong stocks:
Hong Kong is listed under the registration system, and the company meets the listing conditions. After the financial and operational problems of HKEx, as long as there are no problems, it can basically be listed in Hong Kong smoothly.
At the same time, there is no price-earnings ratio limit for listing in Hong Kong. As long as investors pay the bill, in theory, the stock price can be as high as the sky. Such as Mito (http:/1357. HK), the parent company of Meitu Xiu Xiu, applied by meeting the market value and income requirements, so it can be listed even at a loss, and the P/E ratio cannot be estimated.
On the contrary, the highest price-earnings ratio of mainland IPOs is 23 times, and companies with strong profits, such as Tencent or Alibaba, can only offer shares at 23 times when they return to A shares.
There are gains and losses, and listing in Hong Kong is easier and more open. From an investment perspective, it is not as simple and rude as A shares. It is common for careless companies to overprice and open at a lower price after opening.
Combining the influences of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong's stock listing systems, each has its own advantages and disadvantages:
Hong kong's new shares are playing hard:
It seems profitable, but in fact it is full of water.
As of July 27th, there are 76 new shares available for investors to subscribe in Hong Kong open market this year. According to the subscription fee of 1% (which will be charged only if the subscription is successful), there were 29 losses and 48 gains on the first day. The maximum profit increased by 1.5 times, and the maximum loss decreased by 28%.
The highlight is the winning rate, the lowest is 15%, and a considerable part is 100%. Of course, this means at least 1 hand.
If readers subscribe for every new Hong Kong stock, the probability of positive return is only 6 1%. Considering the possible human losses in operation, the hit rate is not attractive. The average return of 16.5% looks good, but the reality will affect the actual return because of the different winning rates. For example, if MGO (1.23, -0.0 1, -0.8 1%) and Ye Feng group (0.305, 158.33%) with high returns are excluded.
Find the right posture and hand over Hong Kong new shares in two moves.
Carefully study the short-term return of new shares, and there are three main factors that affect the return:
Some GEM stocks are extremely difficult to win because of the hot number of subscribers.
A considerable number of large and medium-sized stocks are large financial stocks such as banks, and their short-term performance is average.
There are no restrictions on the suspension of trading in Hong Kong, and some new shares have gone up and down.
The right medicine can make Hong Kong stocks make new returns smoother (lower retracement) and improve the hit rate (positive return probability) from two aspects: screening new targets and new operations.
Strategy 1: Eliminate the Growth Enterprise Market and the new shares that raise more than HK$ 600 million.
Since the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) and large-cap stocks are not friendly to returns, can't we beat it or avoid it?
GEM stocks are easy to screen. All companies that see the four-digit code and start with the word "8" are listed on the Growth Enterprise Market.
There is no clear definition of medium and large-cap stocks. The usual practice in the market is to observe the net fundraising amount of listed companies (fundraising amount minus listing expenses), which is usually listed in hundreds of pages of prospectus. However, considering that some retail investors may not be able to read 50 pages of books a year (except for friends circle compositions and children's report cards), we use the maximum fund-raising amount that almost all disk-reading software can easily find. Although some professionalism is sacrificed, it saves investors the time to find information, which is still of certain significance. If the amount raised exceeds HK$ 600 million, please choose directly.
After this simple action, something amazing happened! After screening, the number of operations was greatly reduced from 76 to 29 (the frequency of operations was reduced), the average income was directly doubled from 16.5% to 3 1% (the income was more stable), and the probability of positive income was increased by nearly 8 percentage points, reaching 68.97% (the profit curve was smoother). This means that investors can operate in less time, but the parameters of the portfolio are optimized a lot.
Strategy 2: new shares open higher and take profits at the opening price; If it opens lower, it will rebound to the cost price and leave; If it doesn't rebound all the time, stop at the closing price of the day.
After screening the new shares, if you want to further improve the hit rate, you can also start with the operation.
After the continuous daily limit of A-share new shares, it often takes several or even ten trading days for the stock price to fall. There is no daily limit for new shares in Hong Kong, so the ups and downs are often completed in one trading day.
If you don't mind slightly compressing the average rate of return, then the operating principle of "making money and running" will make the return smoother. The specific form of realization is that when the market opens, if it is a list of making money, then profit will be taken immediately; If you lose money when you first enter the market, you can hang a higher cost price (stock price plus 1% handling fee) to play mahjong and make a profit; If you can't close your position before the close (the price has been determined)
Below), stop loss at the closing price. This operation takes about 5 minutes longer than the single strategy 1, but the effect is very obvious.
The average profit of innovation strategy with active operation is reduced from 3 1% to 23%, but the probability of positive profit (no loss) is increased to 82.76%! This means that the degree of principal protection is quite high.
You know, in all investment strategies, the probability of positive return above 70% is very rare.
Make money to buy food!
Aunt Liu has never won a two-color ball in her life, earning 6 thousand from 10 thousand
Interestingly, even according to the most "unlucky" scenario, Hong Kong stocks make new profits at 20 17, which means that only the new shares that have to win at least 1 lot and the new shares that lose money after winning the lottery are counted, and the result can be surprising.
We might as well assume that a reader, Aunt Liu, is a conservative who has never met a good thing or a bad thing. According to the strategy, on the premise of drawing only 1 lot and principal 10000 Hong Kong dollars at a time, after excluding transaction costs, it actually earned 5993 Hong Kong dollars for more than half a year!
Under the most unlucky background assumption, the money for buying food was successfully obtained! If everyone is not so unlucky, according to the normal winning probability and the same cost of 10 thousand, one hand at a time has been successfully doubled this year, and the return is as high as 132%.
Hong Kong stocks are flashy and real estate speculation is boring.
Thousands of Hong Kong dollars may not be enough for a rich reader to eat a meal, so large funds naturally use the VIP channel.
In addition to public offering, there are also international placement channels in the listing rules of Hong Kong stocks. Take China Shenghai Food (2.57, -0.05,-1.9 1%) as an example. Of the 250 million shares issued, 90% were allocated to international allotment, and only 10% was allocated to public offering. At the purchase price of 0.84, HK$ 65.438+0.89 billion is reserved for professional investors and institutions, and the share of retail investors is only 0.265438+0 billion.
Source: Prospectus
There is also an adjustment mechanism for Hong Kong stocks, that is, if the retail subscription is too large, part of the quota of international placement will be transferred back to the public offering channel, generally up to 50%. Even so, the number of investors participating in international placement competition is much less than that of ordinary retail investors. Therefore, it is not impossible to obtain a larger proportion or even a full allotment of 100%.
Source: prospectus
Therefore, if investors have large funds, in addition to the channels of public offering, they can also apply to local brokers for continuous investment through international placement. If you apply for a new leverage line at the brokerage exhibition again, the winning rate will often be higher than that of ordinary retail investors, and the return on investment will naturally be more abundant. I won't tell you that quite a few investors and private equity funds achieve financial freedom through innovation.
abstract
It is one of the strategies that the author is most willing to recommend customers to try. The cost is very small, the holding time is short, and the outcome is clear at a glance. It is very helpful for non-professional investors and readers who have just come into contact with Hong Kong stocks to understand Hong Kong stocks.
Interestingly, the author has counted the simulated benefits of all new strategies since 20 13. According to the above strategic thinking of screening operation, there is actually a function that runs through bulls and bears, and the income is very good. There are two reasons: in the bear market, there are relatively few listed companies, and even if they bite the bullet, the stock price is set conservatively; On the other hand, playing a new strategy is purely short-term operation. The return is more about the popularity of listed companies at that time, rather than the overall market environment. Therefore, the liquidation on the first day has little to do with everyone.
No one is perfect, and playing new strategies naturally has disadvantages. Even if the GEM has been eliminated, the stock price of new shares fluctuates greatly. If the stock price falls sharply on the first day (although it has not appeared in recent years), investors will also suffer greater losses. At the same time, the circulation of the screened enterprises is limited. If only 100 million or even tens of millions of funds are raised, readers who subscribe for more than 20% of the shares will be at risk of lacking counterparties, so the strategic capital capacity is generally tens of millions.
Although the new strategy has various defects, it does not affect its becoming a strategy with relatively high value rate. If readers can combine the other two investment ideas and disperse the funds into different strategic combinations, the system risk can be further reduced. More importantly, there are dozens of opportunities to operate new strategies every year. Interested readers can take a notebook to copy down the main points, and there are many cases to observe the feasibility of the strategy and then consider trying. This is also an interesting and meaningful learning process.