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20 15 Contradictory performance of economic situation analysis and forecast in China.
Economic development falls into the paradox of "investment/growth/surplus". The Blue Book points out that China's economic growth is highly dependent on investment, and investment is precisely the source of overcapacity. The key to steady economic growth under the new normal is to improve the investment mechanism in the spirit of reform and handle the problems of what to invest, how to invest and who to invest.

The leverage ratio soared. The rising leverage ratio is a financial risk with overall and systematic influence. There are two major problems in China's local debt: insufficient solvency and insufficient liquidity. To deal with the debt problem, the short-term goal is mainly to prevent the debt situation from deteriorating, and the long-term goal is to establish a reasonable and sustainable local government financing mechanism.

Urbanization transformation. To promote urbanization under the new normal, we must change the bias of planning urbanization based on "urban residents", reverse the tendency of "development zone", overcome the disadvantages of "losing market", establish the basic position of improving land use efficiency, attach great importance to the coupling of supply-side factors that are more important for long-term sustainable development, such as industrial accumulation, human capital accumulation and knowledge spillover, and take urban-rural integration as the ultimate goal.

The real estate market situation reversed. The Blue Book points out that the fuse of the real estate market decline is not from the policy side, but from the profound changes in the internal supply and demand pattern of the urban housing market. Short-term countermeasures should be devoted to cleaning up a lot of real estate laws and regulations, choosing improper and contradictory ones and abandoning them, and returning the true colors of the market; The long-term countermeasure should be to speed up the "top-level design" of the real estate market, especially to solve the problems such as the rental-to-sale ratio, the relationship between housing and land, the relationship between the real estate market and urbanization, the main body of the real estate market development, the position and role of the government in the real estate market, the real estate financial system, and the fiscal and taxation policies that support and standardize the development of the real estate market.

Financial chaos is rampant. The Blue Book points out that to control financial chaos, we must reform the system and mechanism, with three main objectives: to reform the current foreign exchange reserve management system so as to completely get rid of the predicament that foreign exchange reserves kidnap China's monetary policy; Reform the multi-sector and separate supervision mode, eradicate the basis of regulatory arbitrage, and cover endless comprehensive financial business as much as possible; Abandon complex and outdated "policy constraints" and return the market to its true colors.