Abstract: The Yellow River problem is very complicated and contains extensive and profound contents. Studying the Yellow River should be a social topic. This paper attempts to examine and think about the related problems of the Yellow River from the social level to the technical level, focusing on the research perspective rather than solving the problems. The basic point of thinking is that the Yellow River needs long-term stability. Long-term stability is first of all that the will of the country should be fully reflected. Long-term stability is a process, and only long-term stability is possible; The stability of the Yellow River depends on taking active countermeasures and measures to fully reflect social progress, scientific and technological development and productivity level. Managing the Yellow River should keep pace with the times. In the past, the management of the Yellow River mainly reflected the struggle between man and nature. In reality, the solution of the Yellow River problem should start from the harmonious coexistence between man and nature and the sustainable development of economy and society, and show more human ability to overcome themselves.

Keywords:: the Yellow River problem governance stability

It should be noted that the author has neither engaged in professional technical research on harnessing the Yellow River nor engaged in practical work of engineering technology. This article is just some immature ideas of the individual.

The Yellow River issue has a long history and can be said to have ended with the history of the Chinese nation. As early as Dayu's flood control era, marked by resisting the flood of the Yellow River, the ancestors had already established a strong and lasting consciousness of flood control, and harnessing the Yellow River became the epitome of ancient China people's conquest and transformation of nature. The meandering Yellow River is a symbol of the brave and fearless spirit of the Chinese nation. The history of harnessing the Yellow River for thousands of years is a true portrayal of the Chinese nation's perseverance, unity and struggle, wisdom and competence. The thought of river management formed in ancient times and a large number of classics are also one of the precious cultural heritages. In the long historical process, the flood of the Yellow River and the change and utilization of water resources have been puzzling the rulers of past dynasties, affecting and even determining the geographical, social, political, economic and human environment in different historical periods. Governing the Yellow River has always been a powerful manifestation of the national will, and the long-term stability of the Yellow River is the unremitting pursuit and expectation of people in various historical periods.

The Yellow River, the "worry of China", is constantly changing and developing with the development of the times and social progress. On the one hand, the great achievements of modern people in harnessing the Yellow River have controlled and alleviated the harm of floods to a considerable extent; The Yellow River, with its limited runoff, largely supports the resources and water defense lines in the vast areas in the north and northwest of China. On the other hand, because human beings can't dominate the general natural form and basic evolution law of the Yellow River, the flood problem has not been fundamentally solved. Especially with the increasingly stable regional socio-economic structure, the connotation, characteristics and significance of water disasters have also changed. However, the contradiction between water resources protection, environmental problems and water resources supply in the Yellow River basin has aroused widespread concern in society. All these have potential and far-reaching social and political impacts. The suffering of the Yellow River today shows its natural needs and urgent expectations for human beings after making valuable contributions. The relationship between the Yellow River and the Chinese nation is not only a problem in a certain field, but also contains a broader and deeper topic.

The Yellow River needs long-term stability, because the stability of the Yellow River is the premise of regional stability. When you open the map of China, it's easy to find the location of the Yellow River. It is undoubtedly very important to look at the areas that may be affected by the Yellow River disaster and water crisis. These areas are likely to be the intersection of the southeast and northwest of China, that is, the transitional zone between the economically and culturally developed areas and the underdeveloped areas in China. The prosperity of the Yellow River in this area will be transformed into the source of its economic and social development. Disasters and water crisis will seriously hinder the sustainable development of economy and society, and produce a "barrier" effect, which is extremely unfavorable for realizing the development strategy of the country's western development. In the three-step strategic plan of Socialism with Chinese characteristics's modernization, by the middle of the 20th century, it should reach the development level of moderately developed countries. The degree of river management and development is one of the signs of national development and progress. The solution of the Yellow River problem depends on taking active countermeasures and measures to reflect the progress of modern society, the development of science and technology and the level of productivity.

I. Flood control of the Yellow River

No matter in the past or now, or even for a long time to come, defending the Yellow River flood is the primary problem in the Yellow River problem. The flood disaster of the Yellow River is mainly in the lower reaches. The basin area of more than 700,000 square kilometers is almost all concentrated in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River, while the downstream is a "suspended river" with a width of 800 kilometers and a length of about 100 kilometers. I'm afraid this kind of river pattern is unique in China and even in the world. In a short period of time, the flood has a large flow and strong momentum, and the distance from the plain area to the sea is long, and tens of millions of people within a range of more than 100,000 square kilometers are facing possible extinction. The difficulty of flood control and the arduous task are self-evident. The devastating damage caused by the Yellow River flood carrying a lot of sediment is incomparable to other river floods. 1938 was formed in the Huangpan District of Huayuankou, and it is still one of the poverty-stricken areas in China. The evaluation of the Yellow River flood should be understood in a historical, developing and systematic way of thinking, such as studying the influence of human environment, social progress, political power construction and national development strategy. It is not enough to analyze and judge only from the economic and regional perspectives.

There are many problems in flood control in the lower reaches of the Yellow River. The most realistic problem is the re-understanding of moderate flood. The so-called normal flood is a concept defined from the forecast period, which is different from large floods and medium and small floods in terms of flow characteristics. Moderate floods play a vital role in the Yellow River: First, transport sediment into the sea, scour the river and stabilize the river; The second is to supplement downstream resources to meet environmental and ecological water demand. Historically, every evolution cycle of major rivers in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is a process of gradual siltation of rivers and uplift and extension of estuaries, as well as a process of slowing down the longitudinal gradient and increasing the lateral gradient. It is this process that gave birth to the river course change caused by the catastrophic flood and the flood caused by the moderate flood once every three years. After the current channel has been maintained for more than 100 years, the unusually high water level and flood discharge process in the lower reaches of Anlan occurred in August of 1996 for a long period of time, reminding people to re-recognize the moderate flood. The appearance of abnormal phenomena means that it is not objective to define, distinguish and understand the possible floods of the Yellow River only by forecasting time period and discharge, and the water level has more important practical significance. The small flood discharge and high-level floodplain of wandering rivers may evolve in disorder, and the engineering function of rivers will be greatly weakened, and then the river regime will change sharply, endangering the safety of dikes. Therefore, the flood of the Yellow River, especially the moderate flood, cannot be analyzed only by general hydrology. It is a very urgent task to establish an efficient and accurate monitoring system by using high-tech means to monitor and control the temporal and spatial changes of river morphology and flood evolution in real time.

Secondly, through the re-understanding of normal floods, we should clearly realize that the threat facing the lower reaches of the Yellow River is not mainly floods but high water levels. Therefore, the concepts of extraordinary flood and normal flood and their relationship, flood control benefit and operation mode of Xiaolangdi Reservoir need to be re-recognized. In particular, the problems that may occur in normal floods obviously require us to have a new understanding and evaluation of the previous concept and significance of preventing extraordinary floods after the completion of Xiaolangdi Reservoir.

The third is the problem of flood detention. The emergence of flood storage and detention areas reflects the initiative and strategy of human beings in flood control, and it has been proved to be successful by flood control practice. The struggle between man and flood is also the struggle between man and nature for living space. With the progress of human society and the development of science and technology, the increasingly stable social and economic structure of the Yellow River flood storage and detention area (including the beach area) makes people more and more have to think about the rationality and reality of this dynamic strategic flood control measure. After the completion of Xiaolangdi Reservoir, the flood storage and detention area will still be used to prevent the once-in-a-thousand-year flood. From the perspective of social progress, sacrificing the long-term, overall and fundamental interests of a certain region is increasingly out of proportion to the concept of long-term stability, and development should not be the first choice. Therefore, it is necessary to actively seek new strategies and measures.

Second, about the diversion of the lower Yellow River.

River regime stability is the premise of realizing long-term stability and implementing the strategy of harnessing the Yellow River. The possibility of moving with the flood is the first problem that must be considered in seeking long-term stability. The optimistic and consistent view is that the current river course can be maintained for several decades. If the regulation of sediment deposition in the middle reaches of the reservoir is considered, especially the scientific practice of water and sediment regulation, it seems possible to stabilize the current river course for a hundred years. Since the people governed the Yellow River for more than half a century, social progress, political stability and the level of productive forces have greatly developed. In particular, the successful practice of 1958 and 1982 in overcoming the measured flood, the relatively complete engineering system at present and the long-term stable development of the country make people have reason to believe that the lower reaches of the river can remain stable for a hundred years. Considering the natural factors such as "hanging river", wide at the top and narrow at the bottom, unbalanced gradient and sediment transport capacity, it is impossible to have fundamental changes in a short time, and human activities in the beach area will undoubtedly be a very arduous project to maintain the stability of the existing river course for a hundred years. Fragile stability and long-term stability are not necessarily the same level.

There are different views on the diversion of the lower Yellow River, but one thing should be made clear: that is, the diversion of the lower Yellow River refers to the long-term and stable flow path change from a certain base point in the lower Yellow River, which has a great impact on the geographical and social environment of the relevant areas. From this, we think of the flow path problem in the estuary delta, which is put forward in view of the problem of the Yellow River entering the sea. The Yellow River is different from other rivers entering the sea, and its sediment-laden characteristics determine that the rivers in the delta region change frequently due to siltation and elevation. The area and length of the Yellow River Delta are increasing, and the starting point of river change is likely to be extended. The elevation of the estuary is one of the main reasons for the change of the river course, and the change of the river course in the estuary area is the reflection of the change of the whole downstream river course, which has an important influence on the overall stability of the downstream river course. For a long time or in history, there has been great instability in the mouth of the Yellow River. This is in contradiction with the current environment, resources and economic and social development in this area, which determines that the problem of the Yellow River estuary can no longer be accommodated by a concept of flow path. Estuary management can not be understood only from the professional level of estuary flow path. If the problem of estuary flow path is raised to the level of downstream diversion, it is understandable to draw the view that the downstream diversion of the Yellow River is likely. The analysis of the possibility of diversion of the lower Yellow River should at least enhance our sense of urgency and show greater initiative in harnessing the Yellow River.

Three, about the Yellow River sediment problem

The fundamental crux of the Yellow River disaster is the sediment problem. Abnormal sediment concentration, siltation and erosion not only bring great difficulties to flood control, but also greatly aggravate the consequences of flood disasters. Long-term river siltation also constitutes the possibility of downstream diversion. At the same time, it also brings many problems to the development and utilization of water resources in the Yellow River. At present, the treatment of sediment in the Yellow River mainly depends on the river (mainly flood) to carry sediment into the sea, which is obviously at the expense of wasting a lot of valuable water resources. The engineering technical measures that have been implemented, including reservoir sand retaining, silt reclamation, siltation of dikes, dredging, etc., can only delay the siltation of rivers. If the sediment problem is not effectively solved or controlled, there is no way to maintain long-term stability.

Sediment in the Yellow River mainly comes from the Loess Plateau. Soil and water conservation in the Loess Plateau is a grand and arduous land improvement and ecological environment construction project. Because it directly reduces sediment entering the Yellow River, it becomes the basic part of the Yellow River regulation system and is highly valued by modern Yellow River regulation. Engineering measures, biological measures and agricultural measures of soil and water conservation are complementary, but engineering measures have more direct, practical and basic significance. Large and small reservoirs and dam systems all over the Loess Plateau not only directly retain sediment and change the micro-landform, but also directly improve the micro-ecological environment and ensure the effectiveness and sustainability of biological and agricultural measures. Under the condition of strong gravity erosion, non-engineering measures are more pale and powerless; Due to the influence of population and environmental factors, soil and water conservation and control in the source areas with heavy and coarse sand depend more on engineering measures. It can be seen that the engineering measures of soil and water conservation in the Loess Plateau should be the first from the perspective of land improvement and ecological construction, or from the perspective of soil and water conservation to reduce sediment entering the Yellow River. This does not deny the ultimate basic role and significance of biological measures. With the establishment and improvement of the socialist market economic system, the reaction of economic benefits to soil and water conservation will become more and more obvious. In particular, the impact of agricultural changes on soil and water conservation after China's entry into WTO should be studied on a special topic. Although the soil and water conservation work has achieved certain results after decades of practice, and the sediment flowing into the Yellow River has also decreased obviously, the huge economic and scientific investment in soil and water conservation, especially the slow timeliness and complex historical, social and cultural background factors, cannot but make people feel the complexity and depth of the Yellow River problem. The Yellow River can't be clear. Soil and water loss in the Loess Plateau began in geological period, and behind the evolution of the Yellow River is a natural evolution process. The Yellow River does not need dredging, and effective control through soil and water conservation and water and sediment regulation may be the only way to cure the Yellow River.

From the point of view of sediment transport and siltation reduction, the view that the Yellow River has less water and more sediment is preliminarily analyzed. Furthermore, the idea of water and sediment regulation in outer basin is put forward, with the aim of controlling sediment treatment and eliminating or delaying sediment deposition in downstream rivers. In the long run, increasing the water volume of the Yellow River through the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is more conducive to water and sediment regulation and improving the sediment transport capacity of the main stream of the Yellow River. At present, it is obviously more realistic and economical to transfer water from other basins without using the Yellow River's own regulation to solve the problem of sediment transport. Water and sediment regulation should have different contents in broad and narrow sense. Broadly speaking, the benign water and sediment movement process formed by human runoff changes belongs to the category of water and sediment regulation. The upcoming water and sediment regulation should be a narrow concept, that is, water and sediment regulation is a direct and dynamic reflection of the law of water and sediment movement. This is at the expense of a considerable amount of valuable water resources of the Yellow River; Second, it has great dependence on the downstream river regulation project. Comprehensive analysis, water and sediment regulation should be carried out at the same time: First, water and sediment regulation should take into account the ecological and social water use of downstream and estuary at the same time, and water and sediment regulation should not be an isolated practical process. Second, water and sediment regulation should be carried out simultaneously with the planning adjustment of river regulation projects. River regulation project should present the regulation of water and sediment bed and the evolution law of water and sediment within a certain range, otherwise, sediment regulation can only be a simple attempt to transport sediment. Thirdly, water and sediment regulation should be carried out simultaneously with active dredging and diversion in the downstream, especially in the estuary area. Downstream dredging, especially estuary dredging, may play a decisive role in the practice of water and sediment regulation Fourthly, the long-term project of South-to-North Water Transfer Project should be studied in advance at the same time. Regulating water and sediment is not the only way to solve the problem of sediment in the Yellow River. What we need is comprehensive and effective water and sediment regulation measures with strong macro and micro objectives, that is, scientific and systematic water and sediment regulation practice.

Four, about the relationship between the Yellow River and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project

As mentioned earlier, the original idea was to transfer water from other river basins to solve the problem of less water and more sediment in the Yellow River. The first consideration is to transfer water from the upper reaches of the Yangtze River to the Yellow River, which is equivalent to the South-to-North Water Transfer on the western front. At present, the South-to-North Water Transfer Project has become a long-term strategic plan for the country to adjust the imbalance of water resources between the north and the south and solve the water shortage in the north. Imagine that if the total annual runoff of the Yellow River can be doubled (equivalent to one tenth of that of the Yangtze River), that is, from the current 50 billion cubic meters to more than 654.38 billion cubic meters, then the South-to-North Water Transfer Project may become a historical term. From this point of view, the premise of the current South-to-North Water Transfer Project is largely due to the shortage of water resources in the Yellow River, which also means that the South-to-North Water Transfer Project has been completed when it reaches the Yellow River. In fact, the West Route Project of South-to-North Water Transfer Project is such a concept.

To understand the relationship between the Yellow River and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, we can't only understand the relationship between the Yellow River and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project from some technical aspects. The west route project of South-to-North Water Transfer Project directly enters the Yellow River, while the east route and middle route projects are not "crossing the Yellow River" but "meeting the Yellow River". First of all, the South-to-North Water Transfer Project and the Yellow River are mutually adjusted and supplemented. At present, the natural Dongping Lake, which undertakes the task of flood regulation in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, and other lakes and canal systems connected with Dongping Lake are themselves an important part of the East Route Project of South-to-North Water Transfer. The main stream of the Yellow River and its water conservancy hub system play an irreplaceable role in the west route project of South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The water control projects built and to be built in the middle reaches of the main tributaries should also play a great role in supporting and ensuring the regulation capacity and water transfer efficiency of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Secondly, the potential of large-scale water transfer, water supply and irrigation and drainage systems in the lower reaches of the Yellow River should undertake the task of redistribution and utilization of water resources in the north. At the same time, the water transfer in other basins has also formed a favorable situation for the practice of water and sediment regulation in the lower reaches of the Yellow River. It can be seen that the planned South-to-North Water Transfer Project, whether it is the west line, the middle line or the east line, has a direct or even dependent relationship with the Yellow River. It can also be said that the Yellow River is an important part of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.

In short, from the perspective of water resources, the Yellow River and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project should be superimposed and supplemented; From the perspective of Yellow River management, the South-to-North Water Transfer Project has opened up a new way to solve the Yellow River problem.

V. Utilization of water resources in the Yellow River.

The coexistence of water shortage and flood, that is, the uneven distribution of water in time and space, is one of the important characteristics of the Yellow River Basin. Historically, the number, frequency and severity of flood and drought disasters in the Yellow River basin are quite similar, and some droughts have far greater effects and losses than floods. Just because of the directness and intuition of flood disasters, people often don't compare flood disasters with drought disasters. The cut-off of the lower Yellow River, which began in the early 1970s, is only a new manifestation of this feature. The cutoff of the Yellow River means that the transport of sediment to the ocean will stop, which will undoubtedly increase the siltation of the river. It is more realistic that the interruption of groundwater recharge and the decline of downstream wetlands may bring environmental problems, followed by resource water supply. Considering the long-term dependence of the Huang-Huai-Hai region on the water resources of the Yellow River, it is not our ultimate goal to maintain a continuous flow state (which is proved to be achievable in practice), nor is it commensurate with the status of the Yellow River. This is the reason why the cut-off of the Yellow River has no less influence than a rare flood in all aspects. The allocation and utilization of water resources in the Yellow River are not at the same level as solving the problem of the Yellow River cut-off. The goal of solving the problem of cut-off should be to maintain the minimum runoff of ecological water; Only when it is greater than the minimum runoff of ecological water can we talk about the utilization of water resources. The solution of the Yellow River water resources problem depends on comprehensive means and measures such as economy, law and administration. The management and development of the Yellow River is a continuous systematic project, so we should correctly understand the problems caused by the lack of water resources, and solve the water resources problems should be considered simultaneously with other aspects of the Yellow River management.

Geologically speaking, the Yellow River used to be an inland river, and the basin itself should be a self-sufficient ecological environment system. Today's Yellow River is the development of the historical Yellow River, and maintaining the ecological environment system itself is an important symbol of the stability of the Yellow River. The Yellow River created the North China Plain and its ecological environment. Today, the wetland ecology of the Yellow River estuary and its downstream is the natural expression of this ecological environment. The reason why the Hetao area in Ningmeng can fight against the desert today is directly related to the existence and unremitting nourishment of the Yellow River. This makes people have to think about whether the irrigation method of diverting water from the Yellow River, which has lasted for more than two thousand years in Ningmeng area, has more important environmental and ecological significance. At present, in the process of allocation and utilization of water resources in the Yellow River, the consideration of the Yellow River ecosystem is at least insufficient. Ecological protection and rational utilization of water resources must be based on reliable water resources protection. Judging from the present situation and development trend of water pollution in the Yellow River, water pollution is likely to surpass water waste in the future and become one of the two major water losses coexisting with floods. If flood control is mainly a struggle between man and nature, then the protection and rational utilization of water resources mainly reflects the ability of human beings to overcome themselves. In a sense, the latter may be more difficult than the former.

At present, the allocation of water resources in the Yellow River is mainly to adjust water-saving resources in time and space with the help of the middle and upper reaches of the water control project, and at the same time control the water transfer in the main stream. The biggest loss of water resources on the Yellow River is the waste of water resources caused by abundant water entering the sea, that is, on the premise of ensuring the ecological water use in the downstream and estuary, runoff resources other than resource water enter the sea. At present, only from the perspective of sediment discharge and flood discharge, this kind of water diversion resource is not an available water-rich resource. With the increasingly serious water crisis and the progress of science and technology in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, we should actively seek ways to utilize the water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River from the aspects of economy, technology and practice, as a supplement to the development and utilization of water resources in the upper and middle reaches, and further improve the degree of development and utilization of water resources in the Yellow River. Whether the abundant water in the lower reaches of the Yellow River can be diverted, diverted and utilized while regulating water and sediment requires some feasibility studies. In fact, at present, a large number of plain reservoirs have been built and planned on both sides of the lower Yellow River, which play the role of water diversion, sand separation and water utilization of the Yellow River. If the sustainable water demand and groundwater recharge in the Huang-Huai-Hai region are linked with engineering measures such as water diversion from the Yellow River to Wei, water diversion from the Yellow River to Tianjin, and South-to-North Water Transfer Project, it is conceivable to connect the Huang-Huai seawater system in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and combine it with the middle route and east route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project to realize the diversion of abundant water and the separation and utilization of sediment in the lower reaches of the Yellow River. If this idea can be realized, in the long run, the water interception of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project from the Yellow River to the Huaihe River may be greatly reduced; The runoff of the Yellow River, Huaihe River and seawater system may be effectively balanced. Measures such as water and sediment regulation and water-sediment separation in the lower reaches of the Yellow River are carried out in parallel, and water can be divided for sediment separation if necessary. So as to adjust water and sediment stably and effectively for a long time and form a stable river course. Sediment in the Yellow River is effectively controlled by the upper dam (water and soil conservation, reservoir storage) and the lower dam (water and sediment regulation, water and sediment separation, etc.). ); The Yellow River, Huaihe River and their sea areas make full use of the rich water resources of the Yellow River. It is both a wish and a hope that the Yellow River will form an inland river to transport sediment and ecological water to the sea and flood into the sea.

The practical problems of the Yellow River have decided that long-term stability has a new connotation. Preventing floods and solving the water resources and ecological crisis in the basin are two important aspects of the long-term stability of the Yellow River, and they are also signs of long-term stability. Long-term stability is a sustainable process, which can only be achieved by achieving long-term stability. The process of flood control, stability and improvement of downstream rivers, protection and utilization of water resources and ecological construction of river basins is not only a process of long-term stability, but also a way of long-term stability. The practice of water and sediment regulation and the construction of "Digital Yellow River" will reflect the latest level of modern Yellow River management. At present, water and sediment regulation is just about to enter the experimental stage, and it takes a long process from experiment to real practice. Generally speaking, the completion of Xiaolangdi Project provides us with time for exploration. We have reason to believe that the accumulation of new practical achievements and experience will mark an important step for the long-term stability of the Yellow River.

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2, "Yellow River Management and Development" Shanghai Education Press1984 June 65438+February First Edition Author: Research Group of Yellow River Water Conservancy Commission of Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power

3. The first edition of Contemporary Yellow River Governance Forum, published by Science Press, 1990, 10 Author: Editorial Group of Contemporary Yellow River Governance Forum of Yellow River Conservancy Commission.

4. yellow river water conservancy press19951KLOC-0/First Edition of General Code for Yellow River Defense Author: Yellow River Conservancy Commission of Ministry of Water Resources (Editor: Yue)

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