For this grand idea, I have a preliminary understanding of CCTV's Lecture Room. Generally speaking, when a person's feet are high enough, the three-dimensional scenery around him will be miniaturized by his senses and consciousness. For example, Confucius on Mount Taishan in Dongshan in those days. Kong Sheng stepped onto the world in Lu Xiao. Similarly, when Guo Kai Lao Guo, the "chief designer of the West Line Water Diversion Project", stepped on the geographical commanding heights of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, walked to the commanding heights of CCTV, pointed out the first and second steps of China with the handwriting of the "creator" and tried to "chisel through" it, the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the stratum closest to heaven, became a plasticine in his eyes. At this moment, I was deeply shocked by Professor Guo's grand blueprint and the feelings of Genesis, so that my lips that I couldn't close for a long time could no longer be moved by those two fashionable words-what a genius! Too JB shocked!
A nation should have dreams. We don't want to be forced by the "creator". We should use our own intelligence and wisdom to fight against the harsh natural conditions, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and create a better living environment. This is the eternal pursuit of mankind for thousands of years, and it is also the cornerstone of human civilization and progress. Especially in our country, the rainfall is decreasing from south to north, and too much precipitation in the south flows into the sea in vain, which is often plagued by floods; In the north, due to the lack of rainfall, water resources are seriously inadequate and droughts occur frequently. Looking back at the history of China, there is a phantom of "great drought" behind those famines that caused millions or even tens of millions of people to starve to death. Therefore, how to solve this dilemma of "flooding in the south and drought in the north" in order to improve the current living conditions has become a top priority. In this context, "South-to-North Water Diversion Project" and its upgraded version "Great West Line Water Diversion Project" came into being.
We should affirm the starting point of this thought and the dynamic spirit of not giving in to nature. However, both the well-known "South-to-North Water Diversion Project" and the current "West-route Water Diversion Project" are based on the concept of "Long-distance South-to-North Water Diversion Project". Because of the "waterlogging in the south and drought in the north", theoretically speaking, it is very tempting to pump out the remaining water in the south to help the north fight drought. But there is a gap between theory and practice. Restricted by many conditions, many things that seem feasible in theory cannot be transformed into operational reality.
Take the "Great West Line Water Transfer Project" as an example. A key link of this idea is to build a dam to intercept water, that is, to build a 300-meter-high dam at the corner of the Yarlung Zangbo River. Based on this, it is decided that the so-called "West Line Water Transfer Project" can only be a castle in the air. As we all know, the Yarlung Zangbo River is no better than the Yangtze River, and the Three Gorges of the Yangtze River is located at the junction of Chongqing and Hubei, with developed surrounding economy and dense population, which is conducive to large-scale construction. The Yarlung Zangbo River Gorge is extremely steep and rugged, and it is difficult to cross on foot. Many places, even Tibetans who have lived for generations, have never set foot on them and are in an undeveloped state completely isolated from modern civilization. How to build a large-scale project in such a place? Without construction machinery, people can get the Yarlung Zangbo River Gorge out of Pinghu by hand. Even if the problems of construction machinery and construction sites are ignored, where will the civilized supporting facilities such as production and living areas needed for large-scale construction around southern Tibet come from? To say the least, these problems were finally solved by the spirit of China people, so this plan and the original "South-to-North Water Transfer Project" still cannot be implemented. In this regard, the author expounds from the following three aspects:
First of all, we should consider the future climate change factors. There are two main points here.
1, ignoring the periodic changes of East Asian monsoon climate.
Chinese mainland is deeply influenced by the East Asian monsoon climate, which is characterized by obvious seasonal changes and reduced rainfall from south to north. Generally speaking, it is rainy in the south and dry in the north. However, due to the complexity of monsoon climate, in addition to the spatial law of "rainfall decreasing from south to north", it also shows "annual imbalance of rainfall in the same area" and the periodic transformation law of rainfall between north and south within 60 years. At present, the drought in the north began in the early 1980s. The author was born in the northern countryside in the 1970s, and has a deep understanding of this point. In my childhood memory, I have deposited a lot. At that time, the ditches around the village were often filled with rivers and plains. Because I like playing with water very much, I have been in the pond next to the village since childhood. At that time, adults often went to the fields to drain water. Due to accumulated water, saline-alkali land is everywhere. Around junior high school, the rainfall began to decrease obviously. Finally, as the pond near the village dried up, the fun of playing in the water became my childhood memory. Because most cities are built near water sources, many northern cities already have springs. Needless to say, Jinan, which is famous for its springs, is Beijing. In the 1950s, many paddy fields in the suburbs of Beijing were nourished by springs. Later, with the advent of drought and over-exploitation of groundwater, the spring water that was originally everywhere gradually lost its former gurgling style and fell silent.
It can be said that the northern part of China is rainy and humid as a whole, although there has been drought for about 60 years since the early 1980s. This relatively rainy period is the so-called 30-year "northern waterlogging and southern drought" period. Since the early 1980s, with the periodic shift of rainfall from north to south, except for a few years, the north has been shrouded in the shadow of drought. This period will last until about 20 10 years, until another round of "northern waterlogging and southern drought" comes.
Therefore, whether it is "South-to-North Water Diversion Project" or "West Route Water Diversion Project", the periodic transfer law of rainfall between north and south under the condition of East Asian monsoon climate should be considered. Otherwise, when the "long-distance water transfer project" which consumes huge financial resources is put into use, it may face such an embarrassing situation: there is no excess surface water for adjustment in the original planned output area, but the planned input area is fully fighting floods.
2. The influence of global warming on the climate in China should be considered.
Now, the whole world is paying attention to a topic-global warming, and has begun to deal with it. Although there is still controversy about the future warming trend of the earth, the mainstream view supports warming. In recent years, some phenomena, such as the accelerated dissolution of polar icebergs, the erosion of coastlines and beaches, and the upward movement of snow lines in alpine glaciers, have confirmed the view of warming. According to scientists' estimation, by the end of this century, the global temperature will rise by 1. 1-6.4 degrees. In other words, with the continuous warming, the earth will usher in a hot era. This will profoundly change the climate pattern we are used to and have a great impact on the human environment.
With regard to China, many people speculate that the rainfall in the middle and low latitudes (south) and high latitudes (north of the Great Wall) will increase, while the middle and high latitudes (vast North China) will become more arid. It will take time to draw a conclusion whether this prediction is true or not. However, judging from the influence caused by the alternation of cold and warm in the history of the earth, this speculation is obviously untenable. As we all know, the earth is a strange thing. It's cold, just like sending medicine when it's hot. The whole evolutionary history of the earth is a history of alternating ice age and warm age. Every warm period is full of vitality and flourishing species. During the ice age, species shrank; In the worst case, the species will be extinct on a large scale until another warm period, when a new species, Black Pink, appears and eventually becomes the new owner of the earth. Especially in northern China, which is deeply influenced by monsoon climate, it has been very humid during the warm period of the earth. The time for saber-toothed tiger to perform with "Beijingers" on the same stage is too long for us, so I won't mention it. The history of climate change since China entered the threshold of civilization alone is enough to confirm this conclusion.
Zhu Kezhen, a famous climatologist in China, based on abundant meteorological and phenological records in archaeological materials and historical documents, after in-depth research, summarized the climate profile of four warm periods in China history for us:
(1) about 3000 BC-65438 BC+065438 BC+000 BC warm period.
This period is called "archaeological period", so named because the climate of this period is mainly inferred from archaeology. For example, the skeletal remains of subtropical animals such as roe deer, bamboo rat and raccoon dog were found in the Yangshao culture (5600-6080) site in Banpo, Shaanxi Province. Later, in the ruins of Yin Ruins (about 1400- 1 100), elephants were found in addition to roe deer and bamboo rats.
The remains of tapirs, buffaloes, etc. And the historical document "Lu Chunqiu? As the old saying goes: "Businessmen wear elephants", it can be seen that businessmen can domesticate wild elephants. Mencius again? There is a saying in the summer that "the Duke of Zhou is king of each other, killing the election" and "driving away tigers, wolves, rhinoceroses and elephants". Henan province was called Yuzhou in ancient times. According to Hu Houxuan, the word "Yu" is a sign that a person is holding an elephant. All the above are proofs of wild elephant activities in the lower reaches of the Yellow River in Shang Dynasty and early Zhou Dynasty.
As we all know, tapirs and elephants are both animals in tropical forest areas of Southeast Asia. At present, modern elephants can only live naturally in the dense forests of Xishuangbanna, southern Yunnan Province, China. Modern Asian tapirs exist only in the swamp forests of Malay Peninsula and Sumatra. These warm-loving ancient animal remains show that the climate in the Yellow River Basin was warm and humid at that time. Archaeologist Yin Da also found carbonized bamboo joints in the Longshan cultural site in Licheng County, Shandong Province, which was later than Yangshao culture. The large-scale growth of modern bamboo has not generally exceeded the Yangtze River basin. Accordingly, Zhu Kezhen speculated that in the past five thousand years, the northern boundary of bamboo distribution retreated southward by about 1-3 latitude, thus confirming that the annual average temperature at that time was about 2℃ higher than now, and the winter average temperature at 1 was 3-5℃ higher than now. All these prove that North China is warmer and wetter than it is now.
(2) The Spring and Autumn Period, Warring States Period, Qin and Western Han Dynasties from 770 BC to the beginning of AD was the second warm period in China.
During this period, the temperature continued to warm, and there was abundant rainfall in the north, all over the swamp. According to historical documents, both Henan and Shaanxi Weihe Plain have planted bamboo on a large scale. In the first year of Yuanfeng (1 10), the Yellow River burst its banks and the flood was serious.
③ From 600 AD to 1000 AD, from the Sui and Tang Dynasties to the early Northern Song Dynasty, the climate in China entered the third warm period. During this period, according to the records of the first year of Yonghui (650), the second year of Zhang Zong (669) and the third year of Yifeng (678), there was no ice and snow in Chang 'an, the capital, and the climate was warm. During the Tang Xuanzong (7 12-756) and Tang Wuzong (84 1-846), plum blossoms and oranges were planted in the imperial palace and Qujiang pond in the southern suburbs. Jiang Caiping, the concubine of Emperor Xuanzong of the Tang Dynasty, was called Mei Fei because her residence was full of plum blossoms. On one occasion, Tang Wuzong gave ministers three oranges, all of which were picked from the orange tree in the palace. Citrus and plum trees can only resist the minimum temperature of -8℃ and-14℃, but now in Xi 'an, the absolute minimum temperature is below -8℃ every year, and sometimes it will drop below-14℃, so plum trees are not growing well, not to mention citrus.
In this era, as the temperature rises, the whole north is rainy. During the Tang Dynasty, the climate in Guanzhong area was very humid. The surface runoff is rich, and there is a saying that "eight waters go around Chang 'an".
④ The period from 1200 to 1300, from the middle of Southern Song Dynasty to the middle of Yuan Dynasty, was the fourth warm period in China.
The degree of recovery during this period is not as good as the first three periods, and the time only lasted for one hundred years. So, I won't introduce it again.
Looking back at the climate of several main warm periods in China's history, it is not difficult to draw the conclusion that "with the earth heating up, the northern part of China will become relatively humid". Interestingly, the warm period is also the golden period of Chinese civilization from birth to growth. On the contrary, in the cold period, due to abnormal climate, large "natural disasters and man-made disasters" often occur. For example, the Yellow turban insurrectionary uprising and warlord scuffle at the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty, the Eight Kings Rebellion in the Eastern Jin Dynasty, the subsequent rebellion in China, Laos and Sixteen Countries, and the Tangut rebellion in Qidan after the end of the Tang Dynasty all brought great disasters to China, resulting in the third northern people's wave, great famine, great war and the invasion of braid soldiers at the end of the Ming Dynasty. Therefore, according to the past practice, if the earth continues to warm in the future, the northern part of China will have a warm rain period. This is an important factor that can never be ignored when evaluating the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.
Second, we should bypass the traditional thinking mode of "remote water transfer"
Whether the rainfall in China will shift from south to north in 20 10 years, or the trend that the north will be "wet" with global warming, these cannot change the regional difference of rainfall between north and south. Even if the future enters the period of "northern waterlogging and southern drought", the average precipitation in the south is much higher than that in the north, but the gap is small. Moreover, due to the imbalance of annual precipitation in monsoon climate, in the relatively rainy period, the north will still suffer from drought, even as serious as once in 60 years, which is an unavoidable reality. Especially today, with the development of economy, the water consumption for domestic production has greatly increased, and the water resources are increasingly tense. Water shortage in the north has become a big problem that affects people's quality of life and restricts economic development.
When dealing with this difficult problem, we might as well jump out of the thinking mode of "dewatering" with high cost and uncertain advantages and disadvantages and adopt a "harmonious" solution instead. For example, increase publicity and popularize people's awareness of water conservation; Promote the water-saving industry and reduce the waste of water resources through benefit leverage and technological upgrading.
In agricultural production, we can learn from the practices of Israel. The average annual precipitation in Israel is less than 200 mm, and the Negev desert accounts for more than half of the country. Compared with Israeli conditions, how can northern China be regarded as a "paradise"? If the conditions are as bad as those in Israel, the whole country can be turned into a "big garden" and the barren Negev desert into a "European vegetable basket". Is there any reason why northern China is doing worse than the Israelis? If the natural precipitation and drought in the north rely on reservoir storage, surface runoff and intensive agricultural irrigation wells, and spare no effort to popularize "micro-irrigation" technology, is it still so difficult to solve the water shortage problem that restricts agricultural development? At the same time, increase investment in agricultural science and technology research and development, cultivate drought-tolerant crops and high-yield crops by using biological gene technology, improve the quality of agricultural products, and cultivate high value-added products. In this way, will it help China to achieve a leap in agricultural level and get rid of inefficient labor that is hard-working but not rich? Are these more difficult than "long-distance inter-basin water transfer"?
In addition, it is particularly important that the water shortage in northern China cannot be completely attributed to natural conditions, but is largely caused by man-made disasters. This point, the color and taste of surface water can best explain the problem. In the north, the Yellow River, which has the largest runoff, can't be mentioned. "It's not clear when you leave Kunlun." Others, except in the depths of inaccessible mountains such as Taihang Mountain, Yanshan Mountain and Lvliang, can occasionally see a few wisps or a flood of fairly clear water. Have you ever seen clean surface water in those densely populated and economically developed areas? Every river is dazzling black and red, and the stench of suffocation comes to the nose! So that crossing the river every time is a serious test of vital capacity. Turbid streams made by papermaking, steelmaking, coal mining and even electroplating look like strings of flies crawling on a green screen from high altitude. Some of them are floating with a foot-thick yellow and white foam, which is shocking pollution! Residents who have lived on both sides of the river for a long time have greatly increased the incidence of cancer, and some have also suffered from inexplicable terminal diseases. Because groundwater is polluted by infiltration, many places are irrigated with sewage, and those toxic substances such as heavy metals are also circulated to the human body through the food chain, devouring people's health all the time.
In the face of such terrible pollution, the local government will ignore it for the sake of "chicken fart" and that poor tax. On the other hand, the Ministry of Environmental Protection manages "pollution prevention" as an income-generating industry. Usually, the main function is to collect money in addition to dealing with superior inspections, and it has become the second "tax bureau". So that "water", the most spiritual source in life, was spoiled by China people. People say that "wise men enjoy water", but who can enjoy this kind of "water" which is darker than "old smoke" and stinks than "rotten mice"?
Environmental pollution, especially water pollution, is seriously harming the health of people in China, offsetting the achievements of economic development. At the same time, this is also an important reason for the water shortage in the north. Therefore, to solve the problem of water shortage in the north, we must first start with pollution control. Otherwise, you don't know how to cherish the ready-made water around you. How can you lick your face and transfer water from other places to spoil it for you? Compared with the planned "long-distance water transfer", which is more realistic, urgent and meaningful, to do a good job of ecological restoration and return the people to green mountains and green waters?
Generally speaking, the "South-to-North Water Transfer Project" is based on an inertial thinking mode and takes the old road of repeated construction in solving the water shortage problem in the north. This is difficult, expensive and unpredictable. Cultivating water-saving consciousness, developing agriculture through science and technology, protecting and improving existing water sources and other measures are innovative thinking. Taking the "harmonious" road of sustainable development can bring about a leap in level. Compared with the two, is it not obvious?
Third, learn to respect and fear nature and comprehensively evaluate possible environmental disasters.
Once upon a time, under the lofty sentiments of "man can conquer nature", we despised the authority of nature, "turned against heaven and earth" and "dared to call the sun and the moon new". We reclaimed grassland and cultivated land to grow grain, but as a result, there was not much grain, which led to the collapse of grassland ecosystem and accelerated the process of desertification. Strikers arrived in the suburbs of Beijing and swallowed up large areas of fertile land every year. The resulting sandstorm not only ravaged North China, Japan and South Korea, but even crossed the ocean and settled in North America. Finally, we had to return farmland to grassland and bow to the laws of nature; We reclaimed the Loess Plateau, resulting in serious soil erosion, and the Yellow River became more and more "suspended", more and more like Peacock River. As a result, Peng Li has shrunk, Dongting has become emaciated, and the ability to control the flow of the Yangtze River has been greatly weakened. Finally, we must return farmland to lakes ... There are many similar examples. All these show that we can no longer continue the thinking mode of "fighting heaven and earth", but learn to respect and fear nature. Otherwise, in the face of the merciless revenge of nature, we can only be forced to swallow one bitter fruit after another.
Therefore, for some large-scale projects, especially those that are "bone-breaking" and involve changes in topography, it is easy to cause unexpected environmental disasters if they are launched blindly without careful scientific evaluation.
Specific to the possible environmental consequences of the long-distance water transfer plan, involving the previous "South-to-North Water Transfer Plan", there have been many detailed analyses on the Internet, so I won't repeat them here. Here, I want to focus on the environmental disaster that may be caused by the "West Line Water Transfer Project". In the "Great West Line Water Diversion Project" initiated by Professor Guo Kai, the first step is to build a dam in the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon, with a 300-meter dam blocking the rolling river water and then leading it to the Nomatan Reservoir. There is a fatal flaw here, that is, the Yarlung Zangbo River Gorge is not only a leaking channel, but also an important channel for warm and humid air from the Indian Ocean to flow into the hinterland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As we all know, the Himalayas, which straddles the junction of the Indian Ocean plate and the Eurasian plate, is a natural high wall that blocks the warm and humid airflow from the Indian Ocean to the north. Its several gaps can allow the north-south airflow to exchange, thus bringing abundant precipitation to the south of Nyainqentanglha Mountain. The Yarlung Zangbo River splits the East Himalayas and flows southward. Its canyon is one of the most important north-south water vapor channels. Now it is necessary to build a 300-meter-high wall at the throat of this passage, won't it keep the water vapor from the south out of the wall?
The climate of a place is influenced by latitude, topography, atmospheric circulation and many other factors, and it was formed in hundreds of millions of years. The change of any one of these factors will definitely change the local climate pattern. If the planned "high wall" is built, it will not only change the simple landform, but also greatly affect the atmospheric circulation, with disastrous consequences. It can be predicted that due to the destruction of the original atmospheric circulation, the bottom airflow rich in water vapor will be blocked northward, and the rainfall in southern Tibet will definitely drop sharply. As a result, the "holy mountain" was stripped of silver, and the "holy lake" gradually dried up. The jade-like Haizi that fell on the plateau will eventually turn into a saline-alkali swamp. In this way, the ecological environment south of Nyainqentanglha Mountain is completely "finished". Since all the upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River come from this area, at that time, the lack of water supply for this river will also mean the loss of life. In other words, after the dam is completed, it is not an imaginary river that can be adjusted, but probably just a pile of pebbles blown by the wind. In addition, the two "beauties", Cha Yu and Medog, will also be stripped of their moss and become ugly.
The Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon is God's most precious gift to the people of China. Her preciousness lies not in how much water there is in theory, nor in the heavy responsibility of "quenching thirst with water" that she can't afford, but in her beauty and mystery, and in her unbearable holiness. She is the last piece of "pure land" away from the pollution of industrial civilization. The plan to break ground on the top of the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon reminds me of a similar American story. At that time, the United States also had a "Guo Kai". Out of good wishes, they want to build a dam to store water in the Colorado Grand Canyon. 1903, when President Roosevelt visited the Grand Canyon, he said in Angels on the Road to Light that "any human intervention will only destroy the Grand Canyon. Since she is a masterpiece of God, wait for God to change it. " I don't know how people who are overwhelmed by the "Great West Line Water Transfer Project" will feel after seeing this sentence. Americans know how to cherish their own "Grand Canyon" and love it as much as their own eyeballs. And we are far more beautiful, strange, dangerous, deep and quiet than the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon in Colorado. Shouldn't we cherish it more? It can be said that any plan that may lead to the destruction of the Grand Canyon, no matter how beautiful its starting point, is a crime against the people of China! Learn to respect nature, please keep the last piece of pure land for our children and grandchildren!
The above analysis of "South-to-North Water Diversion Project" and "West Line Project" is the author's view as a China person. Because I am not a related professional and limited by my personal knowledge, some viewpoints may be quite different from science. So I hope that knowledgeable professionals can correct me. At the same time, netizens are also invited to express their views on this issue. After all, such a big project will inevitably involve the vital interests of each of us. As a civilian, in view of the special national conditions, we do not expect to have the right to dismiss the CEO. However, we have the right to ask them to listen to our voices when making decisions. That is to say, Premier Wen Jiabao said when answering a reporter's question, "Ensure that the people have the right to supervise and restrict the government." Only in this way can we ensure that our rights and interests are not infringed to the maximum extent, make major decisions scientifically and prudently, and prevent this country from further dying.