Document 1 related to population and policy
Study on the change of demographic dividend and population policy.
This paper analyzes and explains the current population structure of our country by using the data of the sixth national census and the population data of our country over the years, and calculates the total social dependency ratio at the present stage in our country, and at the same time calculates the population status indicators such as the total population, the number of people born each year and the total social dependency ratio in 201-2035. Based on the imminent disappearance of China's demographic dividend and many social and economic problems brought about by the current family planning policy, this paper puts forward that the population and family planning policy must be adjusted and is imminent.
Keywords: population structure, demographic dividend and population policy research
China Library Classification. : C923 document identification code: A commodity number:1003-9082 (2013) 06-016-04.
I. Introduction
How much benefit has the population and birth policy for more than 30 years brought to our country? Demographic dividend? ,? Demographic dividend? It created the miracle of China. Relevant investigation reports show that in the past 30 years, China has created a remarkable miracle of economic growth by relying on the world's leading cheap labor, and the contribution rate of labor to China's economic growth is 26.8%. With the decrease of fertility rate and the acceleration of aging, the population structure of China is undergoing fundamental changes, and the relationship between the elderly and the young has been completely reversed. The era of enjoying the demographic dividend will never return in the near future. China's traditional economic and social structure, values and cultural customs will be violently impacted with the demographic structure transformation, and it will face huge social and economic problems. Before we enjoy it? Demographic dividend? Don't forget the population you may face in the future while getting rich returns? Liabilities? Our country must adjust the population birth policy in time to alleviate the change of population structure by increasing the fertility rate.
Second, the connotation of demographic dividend
The concept of demographic dividend was first put forward by foreign economists when they studied the economic miracle in East Asia. Starting from 1998, the United Nations Population Fund officially used the word demographic dividend in the State of World Population (1998), which made the concept of demographic dividend gradually recognized and used by the academic community. American scholar David? David e bloom and Jeffrey? When Jeffrey G.Williamson and others studied the role of population transition in promoting economic growth in East Asia, they first proposed? Population gift? In other words, demographic gifts or bonuses. Since then, David E. Bloom and others have clearly pointed out that demographic transition will produce a demographic dividend that is conducive to economic growth, namely? Demographic dividend? It is pointed out that the decline of fertility and mortality and the change of population age structure provide an opportunity window for the vast majority of developing countries to rapidly develop their economies and improve their living standards.
Cai Fang, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, and other domestic scholars pointed out in their research? Demographic dividend? The general characteristics of the age structure of the population in this period, namely? Big in the middle and small at both ends? The relatively low child support ratio and the relatively low old support ratio are conducive to the formation of economic development with relatively rich labor resources and relatively light social burden? Golden age? , that is? Demographic dividend? Or? Population opportunity window? . At the same time, Chen Youhua and other scholars pointed out? Demographic dividend? With what? Population debt? It appears alternately. Demographic dividend? It is only a relatively short period of historical opportunities.
Demographic dividend? Is it a kind of demographic transition? Opportunity window? Its essential significance lies in the population burden coefficient, also known as dependency coefficient and dependency ratio, that is, the ratio of non-working-age population to working-age population in the whole population. Explain how many non-working-age people are burdened by every 100 working-age population from the perspective of the whole society. In general research, 50% of the population burden coefficient is taken as? Demographic dividend? With what? Population debt? The dividing line . That is, the population burden coefficient is less than or equal to 50%, which is called the population opportunity window period, which can also be called the demographic window period. The population burden coefficient is the total social dependency ratio, and the calculation formula is as follows:
The child population refers to the population aged 0- 14. There are two algorithms for the elderly population and the working population:
First, according to the current retirement system in China, 15-59 years old is the working age, the working population 15-59 years old, and the elderly population is 60 years old and above; Second, if retirement is extended to 65 years old and 15-64 years old is the working age, then the working population is 15-64 years old and the elderly population is 65 years old and above. According to the two algorithms of working age, two kinds of dependency ratios can be calculated, namely, the total social dependency ratio (1) and the total social dependency ratio (2).
Three, after the founding of China's demographic situation and demographic dividend analysis.
1. Population situation of China after the founding of People's Republic of China (PRC).
After the founding of People's Republic of China (PRC), China's population changes can be divided into four stages: rapid growth period,1949 ~1970; Fast deceleration period,1971~1978; Stationary fluctuation period,1979 ~1990; Smooth deceleration period, 199 1 ~ 20 10 years.
1. 1 high-speed growth period. In the early days of the People's Republic? Many hands make light work? 、? Great mother? And then what? How glorious is it to have more children? Under the call of slogans such as encouraging more children, the population of China has grown rapidly, from 541670 thousand in 1949 to 829.92 million in 1970, with an average annual growth of 26.2 million and 20.526 million? . Although due to the continuous improvement of social security such as medical and health care, the mortality rate at this stage has dropped rapidly, but the ultra-high birth rate has driven the high natural growth rate of China's population.
1.2 fast deceleration period. In the early 1970s, Ma Yinchu, a population expert in China, predicted that the population of China would increase explosively in the future, and China would bear enormous population pressure. In this context, China began to advocate? Just eat one, okay? The birth rate in China began to drop rapidly, from 65438 to 33.43 in 0970? Quickly fell to 1978+08.25? , with an average annual decline of 1.898 thousandth; Although the death rate tends to be stable at present, with the rapid decline of the birth rate, the natural growth rate of China population also drops rapidly, from 25.83 in 1970? Quickly fell to 1978+02.00? The average annual decline is 1.7288 thousandth.
1.3 stationary fluctuation period. After family planning became the basic national policy of our country from 65438 to 0978, our country carried out the family planning policy more firmly, the fertility rate decreased rapidly and the mortality rate tended to be stable. However, because the baby boomers in China have entered the childbearing age before the implementation of the family planning policy, the birth rate and the natural population growth rate show steady fluctuations.
1.4 slowed down steadily. From 199 1, the birth rate in China began to decline steadily; The population mortality rate remained stable from 199 1 to 2003, but it gradually increased with the increase of the proportion of the elderly population in China from 2004. With the steady decline of birth rate and the recovery of death rate, the natural growth rate of population has steadily decreased year by year.
2. Demographic dividend of China after the founding of the People's Republic of China.
With the baby boomers (1949 ~ 1978) gradually entering the working age before the implementation of family planning, the number of working people in China is increasing, and the proportion of working people in the total population is also increasing; With the deepening of China's family planning policy, the fertility rate of women of childbearing age and the birth rate of population in China have declined rapidly, and the number of children in China has also decreased rapidly, and the proportion of children in the total population has also declined rapidly; With the continuous improvement of social security and living standards such as medical and health care, the life expectancy of China population is also increasing, the number of elderly people is increasing, and the proportion of elderly people in the total population is also increasing steadily. Under the dual effects of the increasing working population and the rapid reduction of the number of children, the child dependency ratio in China has dropped rapidly. Although the dependency ratio of the elderly population in China has also increased with the steady increase of the proportion of the elderly population, it cannot match the rapid decline of the dependency ratio of children in China, so the total dependency ratio of our society has also shown a rapid decline trend with the rapid decline of the dependency ratio of children.
2. 1 Even if the retirement age is extended to 65 years old (that is, the internationally accepted algorithm is also the algorithm before the sixth national master plan in China). As can be seen from Table 2, in 1953, the total social dependency ratio in China was as high as 68. 1%, among which the child dependency ratio was as high as 61.17%; By 1964, with the rapid increase of child dependency ratio, the total social dependency ratio in China has also increased rapidly, reaching 79.37%; By 1982, after the implementation of family planning in China, the child dependency ratio has dropped rapidly, and the total social dependency ratio in China has also dropped rapidly, reaching 62.60%. After that, with the steady decline of the child dependency ratio, the total social dependency ratio in China is also steadily declining, and it has dropped to 49.83% by 1990, just below the critical value of 50%. By 6: 00 p.m. on 20 10, the total social support in China had dropped to 34.28%, far below the critical value of 50%. The above analysis shows that if the retirement age is extended to 65, China will be in the population window in 1990, and China will be in the peak of demographic dividend in 20 10.
2.2 If we take the existing retirement system in China as an example (a new algorithm was introduced in June 20 10). Working age 15 ~ 59 years old. As can be seen from Table 3, in 2000, the dependency ratio of children was 34.36%, the dependency ratio of the elderly was 15.70%, and the total social dependency ratio was 50.05%, just equal to 50%. In 20 10, the dependency ratio in China was 23.70%, which was 10.66 percentage points lower than that in the fifth general education. The old-age dependency ratio was 19.02%, which was 3.32 percentage points higher than that in the Fifth Five-Year Plan. The total social dependency ratio is 42.72%, which is 7.33 percentage points lower than that of the Fifth General Plan. The total social dependency ratio is 42.72%, which is 7.28 percentage points lower than the critical value of 50%. The above analysis shows that according to the existing retirement system in China, China just entered the population window in 2000. With the rapid decline of the child dependency ratio, the total social dependency ratio has also decreased, and by 20 10, China has reached the peak of the demographic dividend.
Fourth, the forecast of China's demographic dividend in the future.
China's family planning policy has made great achievements at this stage. Demographic dividend? It has made great contributions to the rapid development of China's economy after the reform and opening up, but? Bonus? What is the antonym of? Liabilities? The accelerated aging and declining birth rate gave birth to our country? Demographic dividend? According to the data of the sixth national census in 20 10 and the sampling data of 1% population over the years after the founding of the People's Republic of China, what impact will it have on the future of China? Demographic dividend? Make a prediction.
1.2011~ population forecast of China in 2035.
The calculated birth rate and natural growth rate are 1. 1. As can be seen from Figure 1, China's population birth rate and natural growth rate fluctuated in an orderly manner in recent ten years, and the fluctuation was relatively stable. During the period from 2000 to 20 10, the birth rate in China decreased from 14.03 in 2000. Decreased year by year to110 years? , with an average annual decrease of 0.213 ‰; The natural population growth rate increased from 7.58 in 2000? Decreased year by year to 4.79 in 20 10 years? , with an average annual decline of 0.279 per thousand. According to the fluctuation of China's birth rate and natural growth rate from 2000 to 20 10, it can be inferred that China's birth rate and natural growth rate will continue to fluctuate from 2000 to 20 1 ~ 2035, so 201~ can be calculated. From the calculation table of China's birth rate and natural growth rate from 20 1 1 to 2035 (table 1), it can be seen that by 2028, the natural growth rate of China's population will drop to negative, that is, the total population of China will stop growing (see table 1).
1.2 Calculation of total population and annual birth population. From the natural growth rate and birth rate in 20 1 1-2035 and the total population of China in 20 10, we can calculate the total population and the number of births per year in China in 201-2035 (see table 2).
2.20 1 1 Calculation of population age structure in China by 2035
2.1mortality prediction of population aged 0 ~ 64.
It can be seen from the table 1 that during the 27 years from 1978 to 2005, the mortality rate in China fluctuated steadily, basically maintaining at 6.50? It fluctuates from left to right, but it has been increasing year by year since 2005, mainly due to the acceleration of aging. As can be seen from Table 2, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in the total population in China rose slowly from 4.4 1% in 0953 to 5.57% in 1990, and then rose rapidly to 7.65438+ in 2000.
Therefore, it can be inferred that the increase of the mortality rate in China in 2005-20 10 was caused by the increase of the mortality rate of the elderly, while the mortality rate of the population aged 0-64 was still relatively stable, so it can be assumed that the mortality rate of the population aged 0-64 in China will remain at 20 10 from 2065438 to 2035.
2.20 ~ 64 years old population calculation
2.2. 1 Step 1, calculate the survival rate of the population aged 0-64 according to the mortality rate of the population aged 0-64 in China in the sixth census of 20 10. The calculation formula is as follows:
2.2.2 Step 2: Calculate the population of 0-64 years old in China from 20 1 1 to 2035 according to the number of people born every year in Table 5, the population of 0-64 years old at the time of the sixth census in 20 10 and the survival rate of 0-64 years old calculated in step 1.
For example, the calculation formula of 20 1 1 year is:
3.2011-Calculation and forecast of China's demographic dividend in 2035
According to the total population, population aged 0-64, population aged 60 and over and population aged 65 and over in 20 1 1-2035, the age composition and dependency ratio of China population in 20 1-2035 are calculated. Over the past 35 years, the total social dependency ratio in China has been increasing year by year, and the total social dependency ratio, that is, the population burden coefficient, will begin to exceed 50%, which indicates that the demographic dividend that has made great contributions to China's economic development will soon disappear in 20 17. Then it will continue to increase year by year. By 2035, the total social dependency ratio will be as high as 79.0 1%, of which the elderly dependency ratio will be as high as 57.52%. By then, China will shoulder a heavy burden of providing for the aged.
If China's retirement age is extended to 65, the total social dependency ratio will increase from 20 1 1 year by year, reaching 50.82% in 2032, and the total social dependency ratio, that is, the population burden coefficient, will begin to exceed 50%, which will indicate that the demographic dividend that has made great contributions to China's economic development will also fade in 2032. Then it will increase by more than 2 percentage points every year. By 2035, the total social dependency ratio will be as high as 57.24%, the elderly dependency ratio will be as high as 38.36%, and China's demographic dividend will soon be exhausted.
Five, the family planning policy adjustment is imminent.
Over the past 30 years, China has unswervingly implemented the national policy of family planning, effectively controlled the severe population explosion situation in China and brought great economic development to China? Demographic dividend? . However, with the imminent disappearance of the demographic dividend, the ultra-low fertility rate and the acceleration of aging, China's population structure has gradually changed from a young population type with a large family and a large number of surplus labor to an aging structure. In addition, the existing family planning policy has brought about the imbalance between men and women, the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and many social problems faced by the one-child family. Therefore, it is time for China's family planning policy to be adjusted in time, and the changes in China's population structure must be alleviated by increasing the fertility rate.
1. The current family planning policy in China.
Article 25 of the Constitution of People's Republic of China (PRC) stipulates that the state practices family planning to adapt population growth to the economic and social development plan. ? Article 49 of the Constitution stipulates that both husband and wife have the obligation to carry out family planning. ? At the same time, the marriage law also stipulates that both husband and wife have the obligation to implement family planning.
Birth policy: A couple should have one child. Under any of the following special circumstances, both husband and wife shall apply at the same time, and with the approval of the family planning administrative department at the county level (including county-level cities and districts, the same below), they may have another child according to the population plan and interval arrangement:
1. 1 The only child suffers from non-hereditary disability and cannot grow into a normal labor force after being identified by a medical appraisal institution for disabled children at or above the municipal level (excluding county-level cities);
1.2 remarried couples, one of whom has given birth to a child and the other has not; Or before remarriage, both parties gave birth to a child, and at the time of divorce, the subsequent spouse of the child has been determined according to law or the divorce agreement, and the newly formed family has no children;
1.3 Infertility after more than five years of marriage, and pregnancy after legally adopting a child after being appraised by a medical and health institution at or above the county level;
1.4 Only child marries only child;
1.5 One of the spouses has worked underground or in the deep sea for more than five years, but still engaged in the work;
1.6 Both husband and wife belong to the agricultural population, and the first child is a girl.
2. The necessity and urgency of family planning policy adjustment.
2. 1 The total population has been effectively controlled. According to the calculation of the total population of China by 20 1 1 by 2035: 20 1 1 by 2035, the total population of China can basically be controlled within1400 million, and it will stop growing in 2028, and then it will decrease year by year.
2.2 ultra-low fertility rate. According to the data of the sixth population census, in 20 10, the fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China was 1. 18, which was far lower than the intergenerational replacement level (the fertility rate at the population replacement level was 2. 1), which meant that the population of the next generation would not increase or decrease compared with the previous generation. )。
2.3 accelerate aging. According to the data of the sixth census, in 20 10, the proportion of people aged 60 and over in China was 13.32%, and the proportion of people aged 65 and over was 8.92%. Then it will increase year by year. According to estimates, by 2035, the proportion of people aged 60 and over in China will reach 32. 13%, and the proportion of people aged 65 and over in China will reach 24.40%. According to the definition of the United Nations, the population over 60 years old accounts for more than 10% of the total population, and the population over 65 years old accounts for more than 7% of the total population, that is, it has entered an aging society.
2.4 The demographic dividend is about to fade. According to the current labor system in China, that is, taking 15 ~ 59 as the working age, China's demographic dividend will disappear in 20 17; If the retirement age is extended to 65, China's demographic dividend will disappear in 2032. However, most industries in China are still labor-intensive, and there is still a long way to go before modernization. The experience of demographic dividend fading caused by demographic changes has also been verified in East Asian countries, especially Japan. According to relevant data, at the end of 1960s, Japan's total dependency ratio remained stable at around 45%, and this balance continued until the early 1990s, which was a glorious period for Japan. However, since1990s, with the decrease of the proportion of young working population and the increase of the proportion of old people, the old-age dependency ratio began to rise, which became one of the main reasons for the long-term economic downturn in Japan.
2.5 The current family planning policy has gradually failed to adapt to China's economic and social development. First, the ratio of male to female is becoming increasingly unbalanced: the existing family planning policy has greatly tested the traditional concept in China, and the traditional concept of raising children and preventing old age has given birth to fetal sex identification and selective abortion, which has made the sex ratio of newborns in China increasingly unbalanced (see Table 3), which will bring great instability to future social development. Second, the gap between the rich and the poor has widened: the existing family planning policy has given the only child greater inheritance rights, while the second child in rural areas, especially the more and more poor children, faces a greater economic gap with the only child when they grow up, and social contradictions are acute. Third, the one-child family faces some social problems: some only children are spoiled from childhood, and when they grow up, they have poor tolerance for setbacks and will bear a heavy burden of providing for the elderly; With the new generation of only children entering the age of marriage and childbearing, China's traditional concepts such as marriage between men and women, carrying on the family line and so on have seriously troubled the only child families and caused some social problems. Is the bereaved family going through it? Losing children when you are old? Some institutions have done sampling statistics: at present, the total number of only children aged 15 to 30 in China is about1900,000, and the annual mortality rate of this age group is four ten thousandths, so there are about 76,000 families who lose their independence every year. According to this statistic, at present, there are about 76,000 families who have lost their independence in China.
2.6 Fertility takes a cycle. The change of population structure has its laws. It takes at least 15 years to change from birth population to working population. We can't wait until the demographic dividend fades before adjusting the family planning policy. Professor Yuan Xin from the Institute of Population and Development, School of Economics, Nankai University pointed out:? Giving birth is a cycle. Unlike China, which can import food from abroad when it is short of food, the problem of labor shortage cannot be solved by international workers. ? It's time for China's birth policy to be adjusted, and the change of China's population structure must be alleviated by raising the birth rate in time.
Six, some suggestions on adjusting the family planning policy
1. First of all, it is recommended to immediately liberalize the second child policy for single families.
Marriage is not as simple as buying and selling goods, and it is impossible and impossible to set conditions in advance, so the proportion of two-child families is quite low. In fact, it is more of a marriage and family with one child. Although China has liberalized the second-child policy for second-child families, has it been cancelled? Four, two, one? The emergence of the family, but we can't ignore the marriage and family of the only child, and the social problems they face can't be underestimated: the problem of providing for the elderly of the parents of the one-child family, the inheritance of the traditional surname of China people, and the question of who to return to for the New Year, all of which seriously plague the single marriage and family. It is suggested that married families with one child should immediately release the second child policy to alleviate many social problems faced by existing one-child families as much as possible.
2. Secondly, it is recommended to conditionally liberalize the second child policy of other families.
By 20 17, the second child policy will be liberalized, but the birth spacing should be appropriately increased to alleviate the resulting population growth. Choosing to fully liberalize the second child policy and appropriately increase the birth spacing when China's demographic dividend begins to turn will help further alleviate the upcoming demographic changes in China and will not bring about a sharp increase in the total population. Because the comprehensive second child policy is basically close to the intergenerational replacement level of the population, it will not have much impact on the total population.
3. Recommend once again that a unified family planning policy should be implemented throughout the country.
Fine-tuning the existing family planning policy and adopting a unified family planning policy across the country regardless of region and household registration can not only control the population growth rate more effectively, but also help improve the overall quality of the population and accelerate the process of urban-rural integration. Because since 1978 family planning became the basic national policy of our country, in fact, only the urban registered population has fully implemented the strict one-child policy, while the proportion of the urban registered population in our country is very small, only 29. 14% in June of 20 10, and the vast majority of the population, accounting for 70.86% of the total population, have given birth to a second child or more, or even more. Moreover, at present, most rural areas in China are almost no different from cities except household registration, and it is more conducive to speeding up the process of urban-rural integration to implement the population and family planning policy without distinction between urban and rural areas.
4. Finally, it is suggested to strictly implement the marriage and childbearing policy.
Relevant departments should formulate strict measures to ensure that the marriage and childbearing policy is put in place, which can not only effectively control the total population of our country within the expected range, but also reflect fairness. At present, many grassroots marriage and childbearing policies are not implemented in place, and the phenomenon of early marriage and multiple births is still serious. According to the data of Liu Pu, among the women of childbearing age in China10/5-64 in 20 10, 13.39% had three or more surviving children, of which 9.43% had three surviving children and 2.9 1% had four surviving children. In 2009. 1 1. 1? Of the 2010.10.31women of childbearing age who gave birth within one year, 6.55% gave birth to the third child or above, and 2.35% gave birth to women of childbearing age aged 15- 19.
refer to
Wang Ying, Tong Jian, Jiang Zhenghua. Demographic dividend, economic growth and population policy [J]. Population Studies, 20 10/0,34 (5): 28-34.
[2] Fan Kai. Demographic dividend, as a key variable of economic growth —— Taking China demographic dividend and its realization as an example [J]. Journal of Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, 2009, (5).
[3] Fan Kai. Demographic dividend, as a key variable of economic growth —— Taking China demographic dividend and its realization as an example [J]. Journal of Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, 2009, (5).
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