foreword
The first part is the analysis of international oil price fluctuation.
Chapter 1: Research on information spillover in global oil market.
1. 1 Introduction
1.2 Literature Review of Information Spillover Testing
An Empirical Study of 1.3
1.4 Summary of this chapter
1.5 citations
Chapter II Study on Short-term Fluctuation of International Oil Price
2. 1 Introduction
2.2 Previous related research
2.3 Empirical data and methods
2.4 Empirical results
2.5 Overview of this chapter
2.6 references
In chapter 3, the influencing factors of oil price are analyzed based on rough set and wavelet neural network.
3. 1 Introduction
3.2 Hybrid method based on rough set and wavelet neural network
3.3 Application of Mixed Method
3.4 Overview of this chapter
3.5 References
The fourth chapter is a comprehensive analysis of the influencing factors of international oil prices.
4. 1 Introduction
4.2 Factors affecting crude oil supply
4.3 Factors affecting crude oil demand
4.4 Short-term factors affecting crude oil prices
4.5 Overview of this chapter
4.6 References
Chapter V Analysis of the Impact of Unexpected Events on Oil Price
5. 1 Introduction
5.2 Types of emergency situations
5.3 Characteristics of oil price fluctuation
5.4 Case study: the impact of unexpected events on oil prices
5.5 Overview of this chapter
The sixth chapter is the analysis of international crude oil price fluctuation based on empirical mode decomposition.
6. 1 Introduction
6.2 Empirical Mode Decomposition
6.3 decomposition
6.4 synthesis
6.5 Overview of this chapter
6.6 references
The seventh chapter is the application of LSI-based text clustering in the classification of events affecting oil prices.
7. 1 Introduction
7.2 Text preprocessing
7.3 text clustering based on LSI
7.4 Cluster result analysis
7.5 Overview of this chapter
7.6 references
The second part of the international oil price forecast
Chapter 8 Prediction of Crude Oil Price by Dynamic Factor Method
8. 1 Introduction
8.2 Dynamic factor method
8.3 data
8.4 Regression and prediction results
8.5 Overview of this chapter
8.6 references
Forecast of international crude oil futures price based on fund position.
9. 1 Introduction
9.2 Analysis of factors affecting the international crude oil futures market
9.3 International crude oil futures price forecast
9.4 Overview of this chapter
9.5 references
Chapter 10 Application of Wavelet Transform in Oil Price Analysis and Prediction
10. 1 Introduction
10.2 wavelet transform
10.3 multi-scale decomposition of oil price series based on wavelet transform
10.4 Oil price forecast based on multi-scale decomposition
10.5 Summary of this chapter
10.6 references
Oil price forecast based on wavelet neural network.
1 1. 1 Introduction
Introduction of 1 1.2 wavelet neural network
1 1.3 empirical analysis
1 1.4 Summary of this chapter
1 1.5 reference
Chapter XII Oil Quarterly Price Forecast Based on Supply and Demand Theory
12. 1 Brief introduction of oil price influence mechanism
12.2 analysis of the influencing factors of oil quarterly price
12.3 Establishment of quarterly oil price forecasting model
12.4 Summary of this chapter
12.5 references
Chapter XIII Analysis of the Relationship between Exploration and Development and International Oil Supply and Demand
13. 1 Introduction
13.2 analysis of influencing factors of oil supply and scenario prediction
13.3 analysis of influencing factors of oil demand and scenario prediction
13.4 Summary of this chapter
13.5 references
Annual international crude oil price forecast based on VARX and VECM models.
14. 1 Introduction
Theory and method of 14.2 model
14.3 variable selection and data description
14.4 model prediction and conclusion
14.5 Summary of this chapter
14.6 references
Appendix I International Oil Price Forecast Series Report (Excerpt)
Appendix II Selected Newspaper Articles and Opinions