introduce

In recent years, China's real estate industry, as an important growth point of the national economy, has played an important role in promoting rapid economic development. At the same time, problems such as overheated real estate investment and high housing prices have also interfered with the economic order to some extent. The state timely introduced and improved new real estate policies such as investment policy, demand policy and supply policy, which created favorable conditions for strengthening and improving macro-control. Personal housing loan policy is a form of demand policy and a short-term regulation means that changes with the development of national economy. Through the leverage of personal mortgage policy, it can stimulate residents' effective demand for real estate and start real estate consumption. Similarly, paying attention to and adjusting the policy value orientation can also make the government's macro-control play a greater role and meet the wishes of more people.

1, economic analysis of real estate policy

Real estate policy is a part of the government's public management policy, and the analysis of real estate policy is a typical empirical study. The economic analysis of real estate policy is professional, predictive and consulting, which can help decision makers to find and solve public policy problems by using policy adjustment tools, and to some extent improve the effectiveness and efficiency of policies.

(1) Main policy adjustment tools-interest rate, land supply and tax.

① Interest rate

According to western economics, a country uses its policy tools through the central bank to adjust the money supply and interest rate according to the established goals, thus affecting the level of macroeconomic activities. In the field of real estate credit, the government can adjust the personal housing loan interest rate through the change of market interest rate, and guide the real estate price to return to reasonable expectations. The change of interest rate directly affects the repayment behavior of residents, increases the repayment pressure of buyers, increases the risk of loan cost, and makes buyers more cautious in housing consumption loans. Therefore, the change of interest rate is that the government adjusts the leverage of capital price, uses market forces to guide real estate developers to locate reasonably, commercial banks lend reasonably, and buyers form reasonable expectations for the real estate market, thus promoting the healthy development of the real estate industry.

② Land supply

In economic analysis, as a factor of production, the supply elasticity of land is zero, that is, from the perspective of the whole society, the supply of land is fixed, but from the perspective of land use differences in different time periods and regions, the supply of land is not completely inelastic. The state and even local governments have the conditions to achieve macro-control of the housing industry by controlling the pace of land supply and land development. According to the law of commodity supply and demand, when the real estate market exceeds demand, the real estate price will fall. Judging from the growth of the construction and completion area of China real estate market in recent years, the real estate market is generally in a situation of oversupply, but the internal structural contradictions of the real estate industry are more prominent.

③ Taxation

Taxation is a means for the national financial policy to regulate the national economy. For the real estate industry, the current tax control measures in the production field are stronger than those in the consumption field. In the stage of economic expansion and overheating of real estate speculation, by adjusting the corresponding taxes and tax rates of real estate, the speed of speculative transactions can be slowed down, thus curbing economic overheating and speculative demand. In the field of real estate consumption, the speculative income of real estate can be reduced by collecting personal income tax, business tax, deed tax and stamp duty. China stipulates that from June, 2006, individuals will be taxed in full on the sales of houses purchased for less than five years, and from August, 2006, personal income tax on the transfer of second-hand houses will be uniformly levied nationwide. It can be seen that in the real estate policy regulation, although the regulation fields and means of various policy regulation tools are different, their purposes and functions are the same.

(2) Selective control policy tools-real estate credit control and preferential interest rates.

Selective control is a monetary policy that the state focuses on controlling the supply and demand of credit in a specific market, regulating and influencing credit activities. Its control tools mainly include consumer credit control, real estate credit control, preferential interest rate and so on. In the field of real estate, consumer credit control and real estate credit control can be collectively called real estate credit control, which is an important part of the central bank's monetary policy. The regulatory authorities will strengthen the foresightedness and effectiveness of credit policies through the analysis and monitoring of industries, and constantly improve their risk management capabilities. From 65438 to 0998, because the domestic housing system reform has just started, residents' willingness to buy houses is not strong, and the People's Bank of China implemented preferential interest rates for residents' housing loans in a short time. After 2004, the dominant position of China's monetary policy and fiscal policy has changed. The central bank adheres to a prudent monetary policy, strengthens the regulation of housing credit, timely adjusts and conveys the intention of monetary credit policy, and guides social expectations.

(3) Effective demand and speculative demand

Effective demand in the field of economics refers to the demand with the ability to pay. Keynes believed that effective demand is the total demand when the total supply price and total demand price of goods reach equilibrium, including consumption demand and investment demand. Due to the budget constraints of personal consumption, the actual effective demand for residential products is limited. When consumer demand is met and investment demand is aggravated by profit, it becomes speculative demand when it exceeds a certain limit. At present, the demand for buying houses in China real estate market includes both effective demand and speculative demand. Effective demand is mainly manifested in residents' self-occupied housing and various demands based on direct use. For example, buying, building, renovating and overhauling self-occupied housing is a typical effective demand, and the purpose of speculative demand is to earn the difference. The state's control over real estate credit is mainly to reduce the demand for speculative housing loans. According to the actual situation in China, for most families, meeting the consumer demand for housing can only be achieved by buying a house with a loan. The adjustment of individual housing loan policy by the state can stimulate housing consumption demand to a certain extent, transform potential housing demand into effective housing demand, and expand the boundary of effective housing demand as much as possible through institutional arrangement or policy adjustment. By the end of 2005, the personal housing loan of domestic commercial banks reached 2,025.8 billion yuan. According to the market development trend, the effective demand of the personal housing loan market will continue to grow steadily.

2. Macroeconomic and housing loan policies

(1) The evolution of China's housing loan policy under the macroeconomic background.

1998 is the first year that China abolished welfare housing distribution and carried out market-oriented reform of housing system. Since then, it has also been a period of rapid development of national economy and prosperity of real estate. The growth of housing consumption is inseparable from the development of social economy, showing a positive correlation and linkage effect.

Generally speaking, the development trend of domestic macro-economy is steadily improving, and the state will make a choice when formulating industrial policies, especially the real estate policy mentioned above is a short-term policy, which will change according to the economic development trend and the government's regulatory intention. Since 1995, the personal housing loan business of commercial banks in China can be divided into three stages. One is the policy start-up stage (1995- 1998), during which commercial banks began to handle individual housing loan business, and stopped the physical distribution of housing from the second half of 1998 and implemented housing monetization. Second, in the stage of expansion and development (1999-2000), the state has issued a number of encouragement policies through the central bank, reducing the lending threshold as much as possible in terms of preferential interest rates, loan quotas and loan terms, and supporting personal consumption credit. Thirdly, in the stage of normative adjustment (200 1 ~ 2006), in view of the irregularities in the process of individual housing loans, the People's Bank of China tightened the lending conditions in time to reduce the risks of financial institutions, standardize the real estate financial market order, curb real estate speculation and strengthen the management of individual housing loans.

(2) Problems and evaluation of mortgage policy.

The housing problem is a big problem that affects people's livelihood. In recent years, the state has introduced a series of regulatory measures, but the effect is not very obvious. Although the mortgage policy has been adjusted in time, there are still some problems in the real estate market, such as unreasonable housing structure, excessive price increase in some cities, and housing difficulties for low-and middle-income residents.

① the blind spot of mortgage policy-structural contradiction

After 2004, the People's Bank of China raised the benchmark interest rate of financial institutions several times, but the unreasonable demand for real estate was not effectively controlled, and speculative real estate speculation increased rapidly. At the same time, the proportion of middle and low-grade housing supply has declined, which has led to a serious unreasonable real estate supply structure. Since then, the state has used economic means such as credit and taxation to increase the transaction cost of real estate and curb the speculative demand of real estate, but structural contradictions still exist, and the proportion of low-cost housing and affordable housing is low. In 2006, while using various economic means, the country learned the lessons of the previous two years. By issuing the Opinions on Adjusting Housing Supply Structure and Stabilizing Housing Prices, we make up for the shortage of mortgage policy, directly macro-control the housing structure, differentially adjust the down payment ratio of housing consumption credit, and guide rational consumption.

② Loose mortgage policy-a large number of vacant houses.

Before 2004, under the control of active fiscal policy, the domestic real estate market showed typical characteristics of "bright spot economy". During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, many cities listed the real estate industry as a pillar industry. At the same time, the credit policy is also influencing and regulating the investment and demand of real estate. In some areas, real estate investment is overheated, and the speculative demand for buying multiple houses is increasing, which leads to more and more vacant houses in the country that are difficult to digest, and the mortgage policy shows signs of loosening. In 2005, the vacancy rate of domestic commercial housing reached 26%, which greatly exceeded the internationally recognized warning range of 5% ~ 10%. Therefore, from a policy perspective, the overall trend of mortgage policy supporting the development of affordable housing and supporting effective demand will not change, but it will shrink in stimulating individual housing consumption demand.

③ Risk of mortgage policy-poor credit environment

The construction of credit environment is the weakness of the sustained and healthy development of most domestic industries, including real estate. In recent years, financial institutions and consulting intermediaries in some economically developed areas in China have jointly established a personal joint credit information system, which has played an important role in effectively preventing real estate credit risks, especially personal housing loan risks. At present, the nationwide credit information system has not really been established, and it is difficult to realize resource sharing and platform cooperation among financial institutions in a short time. Therefore, the credit construction and maintenance under the market environment need to be further strengthened.

(3) To handle several relationships.

Personal housing policy should deal with the following relations in the process of national macroeconomic policy and industrial policy adjustment. First, handle the relationship between short-term adjustment and continuity. Individual housing loan policy, including provident fund loan policy, is a short-term policy, which is more likely to change in stages than other public policies. Therefore, when adjusting the policy, we should fully consider the feasibility and related effects of the policy and increase the operability and stability of the policy. The second is to handle the relationship between independence and coordination. The mortgage policy should not only reflect the authority, but also be effectively linked with other macro policies to avoid being out of touch with fiscal policy, monetary policy and industrial policy, and form a relatively perfect policy system. The third is to handle the relationship between structure and benefit. Mortgage policy can guide consumers' behavior tendency to a certain extent, especially in recent years, the macro-control policies of the state on the real estate industry have been continuously introduced, and many uncertain factors make it difficult for consumers to make decisions on housing consumption. Therefore, the mortgage policy should seize the opportunity to guide the reasonable housing structure, solve structural contradictions and enhance the actual effect of the policy through policy means. The fourth is to handle the relationship between market mechanism and policy regulation. Practice has proved that the market mechanism is an effective way of resource allocation and can effectively realize market regulation. At the same time, "market failure" is also a single market regulation powerless, which is the objective inevitability of the existence of public policies. The market order needs to rely on the restriction and maintenance of policies, and the formulation and implementation of policies should also be based on the market and respect the objective laws of the market. The mixed economy of "market+government" has been widely accepted at home and abroad. The government only needs to distinguish which ones need policy constraints and which ones can be handed over to the market. If it is not handled well, it will inevitably lead to policy failure.

3. Value orientation of mortgage policy in the new period.

(1) Value Orientation Types and Policy Orientation

Once public policy comes into being, it will face the contradiction between efficiency and fairness. Efficiency refers to the effectiveness of policy resource allocation, and Pareto efficiency is regarded as the highest realm of resource allocation effectiveness in economics. Fairness refers to the rationality of social value distribution. In the case of more complicated social interests, we should grasp the existing interest pattern, meet the needs of different stakeholders in many aspects, and realize the coordinated development of society. The influence of fairness on efficiency and the restriction of efficiency on fairness run through the whole process of public policy practice.

The public policy of modern government always chooses between efficiency and fairness, and different historical periods need to make different choices. Theoretically speaking, the market mainly solves the problem of efficiency, and housing, as a quasi-public product, needs the interaction between policy mechanism and market mechanism in the social environment, which determines that the government should follow the compound value orientation based on efficiency and committed to fairness.

(2) Analysis of the value orientation of recent mortgage policy.

① the choice of fairness and efficiency

The academic circles believe that fairness belongs to the category of value rationality and efficiency belongs to the category of instrumental rationality, which are two value goals that public policies can hardly take into account at the same time. The competition of market mechanism provides a guarantee for the realization of efficiency, and the intervention of policy adds fairness to society. China's central bank policy has its own unity and integration, and it is relatively easy to achieve fairness in macro value orientation, but poor policy implementation will easily affect efficiency. Therefore, the author believes that the government's choice of value orientation should be based on fairness, creating conditions for the efficient operation of the market mechanism, while giving consideration to efficiency and effectiveness. Of course, in different historical periods and different macro backgrounds, the government is required to have different values when formulating policies. For example, in the period of economic prosperity, raising interest rates to curb economic expansion and curb excessive consumption behavior; During the economic depression, in order to prevent the economy from shrinking again, interest rates are lowered and residents are encouraged to spend. Accordingly, changes in interest rates will also have an impact on industrial policies and industry development.

② Value orientation of mortgage loan policy.

As mentioned above, public policy should be based on fairness, and it advocates giving consideration to efficiency according to the actual situation in different periods and regions. Specifically, it emphasizes the efficiency of horizontal interregional supervision and the fairness of vertical policy management. The government should establish a perfect institutional framework for macro-control of the housing financial system, so that the housing industry has a stable development foundation, and at the same time use various macro-policy tools to regulate the housing loan behavior, so that the development of the housing industry conforms to the objectives of public policies. Recently, according to the development and operation of the real estate industry, the value orientation of mortgage policy should pay attention to fairness, guide the supply of factors to shift to actual effective demand, and make more resources shift to the construction of middle and low-grade housing and real estate market with use as the main demand. The state's inclination to the mortgage policy will guide the financial factors and related industries to tilt to the effective demand field of real estate, so that resources can be allocated to the economic field more reasonably and fairly.

③ Problems to be further solved.

The first is to enhance the effectiveness of the policy. It is necessary to take into account the inherent lag characteristics of economic adjustment tools in the implementation process, improve the actual effect and credibility of policies, and realize the optimal allocation of resources. The second is to enhance the pertinence of policies. It is necessary to make clear the direction, give classified guidance, take into account the unity of macro-control policies and the differences of real estate development in different regions, and carry out targeted control policies to improve the implementation effect of policies. The third is to strengthen the standardization of policies and avoid offside and absence of policies. In the period of economic system transition, we should pay special attention to prevent the harmful interference of public policies on the market mechanism and make up for the deficiency of the market mechanism. It is necessary to intensify policy implementation, eliminate the main factors that interfere with policy implementation, and prevent and avoid problems such as inadequate policy implementation.

conclusion

The real estate policy is a part of the government's public management policy. Studying the value orientation in policy analysis is helpful to effectively solve the value conflict in policy, to adjust the whole process of policy formulation, and to improve the efficiency of decision-making to a certain extent. The domestic macroeconomic development trend is steadily improving, and the state will make a choice when formulating industrial policies. As a kind of "quasi-public product", housing needs to be influenced by policy mechanism and market mechanism in social environment. Therefore, the government should be based on fairness, advocate giving consideration to efficiency according to the actual situation in different periods and regions, and further solve the problems of effectiveness, pertinence and standardization of policies.

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