This year, the price of gold once again experienced a roller coaster performance. Since the war between Russia and Ukraine at the end of February, gold, as a safe-haven asset, has been rising all the way, reaching nearly $2,000 per ounce at the highest time. However, with the rising global inflation rate, the Federal Reserve started the pace of raising interest rates in the US dollar in May, and the golden days suddenly ended and began to fall endlessly. Now it has been opened, and it has reached around $65,438+$0.700 per ounce in mid-July. It seems that the breakthrough of 1.700 USD/oz is just around the corner. So as an ordinary investor, can you buy gold at the bottom now? My answer is that now is not the right time to make a one-time investment and gain profits for three reasons:

First, the dollar and gold have always been negatively correlated. Judging from the long-term trend, the dollar still has room to rise.

Since the Fed began to raise interest rates in May, it has raised interest rates twice in a row, and each time it is stronger than Fang. It is now widely predicted that the interest rate hike in July will reach 75 basis points. The reason why the Fed raises interest rates is simple, that is, inflation in the United States is getting higher and higher. The just-released CPI index of the United States in July has reached a record 9. 1%. At present, the Fed's policy is very obvious, that is, to curb inflation by raising interest rates. However, this wave of inflation in the United States is too fierce to last for several months. It is conservatively estimated that by the end of this year, the US dollar will raise interest rates three or four times. The dollar goes up and gold goes down, which is an objective law summarized from historical financial transactions. Therefore, it is difficult for gold to rise again in the short term, and the risk of falling again is great.

Second, although the price of gold has fallen this year, it is still at an all-time high.

This wave of gold rose after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020. From 1.400/oz, it has been rising to the highest of 2000 USD/oz. The biggest rising logic is the world turmoil, and gold can be used as a safe haven. In addition, in order to recover the economy from the epidemic as soon as possible, the Federal Reserve put a lot of money into the market, totaling more than 10 trillion dollars. This is also the depreciation of the dollar itself and the rise in the price of gold. But now the situation has changed, and the United States has begun to pay for the amount of money released. There is no way to make the currency shrink just by raising interest rates. According to the normal situation, the annual increase of gold price is very limited, which has no investment value in itself and is an interest-bearing asset. It will also take up a lot of cash, and now gold is in a process of rational return.

Third, the gold investment market is too deep for small companies to participate.

I don't know if you have noticed this news recently. State-owned banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank have announced that they will suspend the personal trading business of precious metal products such as gold and silver from August 15, 2022, and will ban the buying business of gold and its related financial derivatives. The reason given by the bank is to protect the interests of investors. It can be seen from here that professional investment institutions have issued an early warning on the current precious metal trading. Recalling the crude oil treasure incident in early 2020, we really need to pay special attention to our investment. To be sure, this kind of transaction is a risk paradise for big companies, professionals and big funds. Ordinary wealth management products have thunderstorm risk, not to mention this high-risk product.

But then again, gold is still rising in the long run, and it still has certain investment and collection value for us ordinary people. If we keep buying at low prices and don't want to do speculative business, we can consider buying a gold jewelry as a pastime and inheritance, but it has nothing to do with venture capital.