According to the Notice of Shanghai Economic and Information Committee on Doing a Good Job of Power Peak Winter in 2020, the maximum power demand this winter is expected to increase by 14% compared with the last peak winter. Despite the overall balance, the supply of thermal coal is still unstable, and it is necessary to actively deal with supply risks.
On the one hand, at the end of the year, some infrastructure projects were intensified, and the output of steel and building materials industries maintained rapid growth, resulting in a short-term rapid increase in demand. At the same time, affected by the rain and snow, residents' demand for heating electricity and coal surged. On the other hand, with the concentration of coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia, the coal production in the three provinces accounts for more than 70%, which has an increasing impact on coal supply.
However, due to the tightening of safety supervision and environmental protection requirements, the rigid constraints of coal supply are also increasing. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, as the first province in China with an annual output of more than 654.38 billion tons, local policies have an increasing impact on coal supply. Due to the restriction of "looking back for 20 years" and coal management tickets, the output of each month this year has decreased year-on-year. Even from June 5438+00, the effect of increasing supply is still not obvious under the condition of increasing supply security.
The dislocation of production and transportation demand in the coal market is serious, and the overall thermal coal market is in a tight balance state, and the price fluctuation range exceeds that in previous years. "Since the second half of 20 16, coal-fired power generation enterprises have sustained losses in a large area, and their operations are still difficult.
From June 5438 to September this year, the thermal power losses of Huadian, Datang, Guodian Investment and other enterprises exceeded 40%, and the debt ratio of many power plants in Northeast, Northwest and Southwest China exceeded 100%, and the losses of some power plants in the eastern region intensified. Affected by this, the ability of power enterprises to bear coal prices is further reduced. "
The supply and demand situation may be "tightly balanced" next year. According to Zhao, secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission, the increase in energy demand has promoted the demand for thermal coal, but according to monitoring, the number of days and the total amount of coal stored in power plants are guaranteed. Will the supply of 202 1 be tight after the "immediate" difficulties?
A number of experts told reporters that it is expected that China's macro-economy will continue its steady and positive momentum, forming a rigid support for coal demand, and demand will maintain a small growth next year, with a high probability of "tight balance" between supply and demand. Although it is generally guaranteed, regional, cyclical and structural tensions still exist.
People from China Coal Economic Research Association said that from the demand point of view, the accelerated development of new energy and the enhanced substitution of coal have restrained the growth of coal demand to some extent, showing a trend of "high before and low after". From the production point of view, due to the constraints of resources and environment, there is limited room for releasing new production capacity in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia, and more new production capacity is concentrated in Xinjiang and other places.
"In the first half of next year, it is expected that the coal market will remain tight, and it is expected to restore balance in the second half. As the role of medium and long-term contracts becomes more and more obvious, the fluctuation range of coal prices in the whole year is less than that in 2020. "
Many responsible persons of major producing areas confirmed that scientifically determining the development intensity according to the environmental carrying capacity was the main tone during the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period, and the requirements of environmental protection for capacity release became stricter.
Some coal enterprises have also reported that the increase in the peak-valley difference between coal and electricity has caused difficulties in stable coal production and balanced shipment, affecting stable supply. For example, in markets such as "two lakes and one river" and Southwest China, the peak-valley difference of coal consumption is as high as six or seven times; In Sichuan, a hydropower province, there is a strong demand for coal in dry season, and some power plants can't even receive coal in rainy season.
Production and transportation need the joint efforts of three parties to ensure supply. In order to further ensure supply and stabilize prices, the three parties need to work together. People from China Coal Economic Research Association suggested that we should pay close attention to the macroeconomic situation and changes in the demand of coal downstream industries, strengthen market research and judgment, organize production as needed on the premise of ensuring safety in production, and actively guarantee the stable supply of coal. Especially during the peak winter, we will seriously implement the medium and long-term coal contract to promote the stable operation of the market.
Railways are also making every effort to improve the coal transportation support capacity, shorten the transportation distance, improve the transportation timeliness and further reduce the transportation cost of enterprises. Zhuang He, director of the freight department of the National Railway Group, said that in 20021year, the railway transportation structure will be adjusted accordingly according to the changes in coal production and marketing pattern and the capacity of railway passages.
On the one hand, the steady increase of coal for water transmission from west to east will be realized, and the transportation capacity of 400 million tons of Daqin line will not be reduced, and the transportation capacity of Tangbao line will be increased by more than 6.5438+million tons; On the other hand, a large number of direct coal subsidies have been organized, with more than 80 million tons added to Wayan Line and 25 million tons added to Haoji Line.