First, the contradiction of maritime issues has intensified.
Maritime security has become an important source of security tension around China, and China's maritime strategy has become an important indicator for the international community to judge whether China rises peacefully. China's deep-sea strategy has touched the interests of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region and even the whole world, and neighboring countries have greatly enhanced their potential to form interests on ocean issues by taking advantage of the return of the United States to the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, the marine safety environment in China is further deteriorating, and the pressure on China's deep-sea strategy will be normalized.
Since 20 1 1, the Philippines and Vietnam have taken a tough stance on the South China Sea issue, with constant friction between China, Vietnam and the Philippines and escalating conflicts. China's maritime neighbors tend to "unite" and * * * balance China. The United States takes maritime security as the main "grasping hand" and builds a "goose-shaped security model", which has been actively cooperated by Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and other countries, and the internationalization trend of disputes in the South China Sea has been further accelerated. The United States announced the deployment of an offshore warship in Singapore and a marine corps in Australia, marking the first time since the Vietnam War that the United States has expanded its long-term military presence in the Pacific, targeting China. The tough stance and behavior of the Philippines and Vietnam are not only inspired by the commitment and support of the United States to regional security, but also have profound domestic political and economic difficulties. At the East Asia Summit held in June, 1 1, except Cambodia and Myanmar, all other 16 countries talked about maritime security, and a large number of them expressed their concerns about the South China Sea.
Second, the stalemate on the peninsula is difficult to break.
Since 20 1 1 1, the DPRK has adopted a new soft stance towards the relations between the DPRK and the ROK and the DPRK-US. North Korea expressed its willingness to engage in various forms and levels of dialogue with South Korea, and proposed to unconditionally restart the six-party talks to ease the isolation and high-pressure situation of the US-Japan-ROK alliance system against the DPRK. However, since
20 1 1 After the first contact between the chief representatives of the six-party talks between the DPRK and the ROK during the ASEAN Forum in July, 2008, the DPRK-ROK relations have not been substantially eased. North Korea told the delegation led by former US President Carter that it would not give up its nuclear weapons until its security was guaranteed to some extent by the United States.
The policy of the United States, Japan and South Korea towards the DPRK focuses on deterrence, containment and prevention of the DPRK, and does not exclude some tentative bilateral contacts. It may be difficult to break the deadlock on the Korean peninsula by blindly adhering to the coordination system of the US-Japan-ROK alliance. In particular, the so-called "North Korea collapse theory" of Lee Myung-bak's government is still lingering, and the issue of "defectors from North Korea" (Korean citizens who have left North Korea) has been hyped in a new way. If the tension on the Korean peninsula is prolonged, it will harm the interests of all parties concerned.
At present, North Korea continues to make remarkable new progress in restoring and developing its national economy. All parties should know the political and economic situation of North Korea realistically and strengthen regional cooperation. American scholars, in particular, began to notice the differences between North Korea's domestic political elites and ordinary people, hoping to weaken its security threat through differentiated policies toward North Korea.
Third, Japan has strengthened the Japan-US alliance by "making distant friends and attacking near"
On 20 1 1 March11day, a triple disaster of devastating earthquake, tsunami and nuclear leakage occurred in northeastern Japan. The international rescue operation of the earthquake in Japan and the rescue situation in Japan clearly reflect the order of Japan's foreign relations. The Japan-US alliance is CNNC；; The second level is indirect allies, mainly Britain, French, Korean, Australian, China, Taiwan Province and other countries and regions under the American alliance; The third level is the Southeast Asian countries with deep historical roots and the same values as Japan. The fourth level is Russian, Indian, Mongolian and other countries that can balance China's strength. Specifically, the core of the Japan-US alliance is speed.
The ability of rapid coordinated operations shows unparalleled superiority. The second-level indirect allies also played the advantage of rapid assembly and rescue. The third level of relationship is mainly embodied in the good friend relationship of "emotional input feeds back and gives back". The fourth level mainly plays the role of a balancing hand, and all the above four levels have obvious strategic intentions to target and contain China. Although China was deeply concerned about the disaster situation after the earthquake, and gave great assistance in materials, Japan was very cautious when choosing to accept China's assistance. Judging from Japan's attitude towards other international disaster relief, it fully shows its modern version of the strategy of "making friends far away and attacking near".
The devastating earthquake in Japan has also accelerated the adjustment of international relations in the Asia-Pacific region. The earthquake has had a great impact on Japan's economy and regional security situation, further widening the strength gap with China, the largest economy in Asia. According to the overall economic data of China and Japan, Japan is more dependent on China, but China still relies on Japan in high-end technology industries. Judging from the supply of Japanese auto parts, the American market and the "Four Little Dragons" market are more advanced than those of China and ASEAN. Perhaps it is the overall dependence, but the local dominance affects the role of disaster relief diplomacy in eliminating the distrust between China and Japan. The interaction between Japan and South Korea after the disaster shows that bilateral relations have got rid of the chaotic period when both sides tried to change each other because of historical problems, and are developing towards the integration stage of admitting differences and starting to listen and ask questions.
Fourth, strategic concerns stimulate the arms race.
After entering the 2 1 century, the military expenditure of China and its neighboring countries has maintained an overall growth trend, which may last for a long time. At present, the United States is the absolute military overlord in the world, which brings the greatest uncertainty to the world; Russia is constantly strengthening and consolidating its position as a military power; India pursues an all-round offensive military strategy and becomes China.
The "rising threat" factors around China; Southeast Asian countries have stepped up their armament construction, especially their maritime forces. In the long run, the increasing military expenditure of countries is not conducive to the construction of security and mutual trust in the Asia-Pacific region, which may lead the Asia-Pacific region into a "vicious circle" of an arms race and worsen the existing security dilemma.
In the eyes of neighboring countries, China's military spending is growing too fast, and China's intentions are very uncertain, which leads to an increase in anxiety, and China's "military threat theory" is amplified. Although the military expenditure and strength of the United States are much higher than that of China, most neighboring countries have a stronger awareness of China's prevention, mainly as follows: Australia has focused its military defense on China; Southeast Asian countries generally have a strong sense of China, especially the Philippines and Vietnam, which have territorial disputes with China; China is Japan's main defense target, and it is hard for Japan to accept that China's military expenditure growth exceeds the actual economic growth. When China began to cut its military spending, its neighbors' trust in China increased. What is more noteworthy is that neighboring countries are strengthening military cooperation, and their intention to jointly check and balance China is becoming more and more obvious.
Verb (verb's abbreviation) non-traditional security threats are on the rise.
The triple disaster of Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear leakage, the floods in Southeast Asia represented by Thailand, the complicated security situation in Central and South Asia after the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, and the losses suffered by China's overseas investment in Myanmar all indicate that the region is deeply affected by non-traditional security threats. Non-traditional security issues tend to be socialized and regionalized, which directly affects people's livelihood.
20 1 1 natural disasters frequently attack the surrounding areas, which brings great challenges to the safety of people's lives and property. Tsunami disasters and nuclear accidents caused by the earthquake in Japan have quickly become non-traditional security issues that have attracted worldwide attention because of their great harm intensity and wide scope.
Ranked second in the 20 1 1 top ten international news selected by the Associated Press, second only to the killing of bin Laden. This incident has had a far-reaching impact on global nuclear safety and the safe use of energy, and triggered a heated debate on nuclear energy utilization policies in various countries. Re-examining the safety measures of nuclear power plants has become the primary task for all countries to ensure the safety of nuclear energy. This nuclear accident also poses a new challenge to the international mechanism for the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The pace of global nuclear energy revival will significantly slow down. Tokyo Electric Power Company's discharge of high-dose and high-concentration radioactive water into the sea has also triggered protests from neighboring countries, which may have a complex and long-term impact on the marine environment and ecology.
Therefore, in the long run, it is very important to build soft power when dealing with non-traditional security issues. If we look at non-traditional security issues from the perspective of soft power, there is a close relationship between them. For example, after more than 60 years of post-war efforts, Japan has formed its own unique soft power advantage in the world. This advantage does not necessarily need the guarantee of the United States, nor does it conflict with the peaceful rise of China. It is the accumulation of human experience in pursuing peace and prosperity. Especially in the face of sudden natural disasters, the technical accumulation and wisdom of a single country are not enough, and international cooperation is needed. The proliferation of global problems has forced the connotation of national interests to be no longer limited to territorial scope, but to show global and regional ties.