Uncontrolled inflation is the direct cause of Vietnam's economic crisis. This kind of inflation is imported inflation. In order to transfer the losses of its subprime mortgage crisis, the United States issued a large number of dollars, lowered the interest rate of dollars, and promoted the depreciation of dollars. The depreciation of the dollar directly leads to the rise of international energy prices, raw material prices and food prices, which endangers countries like Vietnam that rely on energy imports and food exports to develop their economies. The cost of Vietnamese enterprises has increased, and the profit margin has decreased, which is unsustainable. But inflation is a symptom, and there are some deep-seated reasons that led to the outbreak of the financial crisis in Vietnam.
First of all, the Vietnamese government's economic policy has been mishandled.
The Vietnamese government has made mistakes in its economic policy, hoping to introduce a large amount of foreign capital to stimulate economic development, but also trying to help state-owned enterprises "become bigger and stronger". As a result, the financial and credit policies are too loose, the stalls are too large, and the overheating of the economy is difficult to contain.
Second, the Vietnamese government's monetary policy has been mishandled.
In the past few years, the Vietnamese dong has been in a slight appreciation trend. In late March this year, the Vietnamese government accepted the suggestion of foreign experts to "control inflation through the appreciation of the local currency" and expanded the floating range between the Vietnamese dong and foreign currency from 0.75% to 1%. However, contrary to expectations, the expansion of the exchange rate changed the Vietnamese dong from appreciation to depreciation in a short time. The rapid appreciation of the local currency has further enhanced the speculative impulse of international hot money, reduced the profit cost of international hot money, and facilitated the final profit-taking of international hot money. Once international hot money is cashed out, local depreciation will become inevitable.
Third, international hot money speculation is excessive.
The speculation of international hot money or international hot money also contributed to the outbreak of the financial crisis in Vietnam. In June 2007, 5438+ 10, the average P/E ratio of the constituent stocks of Vietnam stock market index was as high as 73 times. However, the supervision department of Vietnam's stock market is addicted to the glory of "the stock market with the highest growth rate in the world", allowing or even encouraging foreign hot money to enter the market. As a result, after these hot money entered the market, they repeated the old tricks of the Southeast Asian financial crisis and quickly arbitrage in the stock exchange market, which made Vietnam's financial products suffer a catastrophe. The only purpose of international hot money is profit-seeking, but at the beginning of hot money's entry, it is very easy for people to relax their vigilance because of the temptation of false prosperity it creates. In fact, in the past few years, Vietnam has been immersed in this false prosperity. At the beginning of hot money, it not only satisfied Vietnam's thirst for funds, but also laid a huge hidden danger. Once the money-making intention of hot money is realized, it may suddenly retreat. When the hot money retreats and the cornerstone supporting the false economic prosperity collapses, it will easily lead to a financial crisis and even the whole economic crisis.
Fourth, excessive foreign investment.
After Vietnam became a member of WTO, foreign direct investment (FDI) poured into Vietnam. At the same time, the continuous high rating of Vietnam by major foreign investment banks has also stimulated the influx of FDI. According to the data of the General Statistics Bureau of Vietnam, since Vietnam began to absorb FDI, the actual FDI in place has reached 40 billion US dollars. According to the latest statistics released by Vietnam General Statistics Bureau on June 6th, in 2008, the intentional investment of foreign direct investment reached US$ 654.38+0.5 billion. In May alone, the Vietnamese government approved 65,438+030 projects, and the intended investment of foreign direct investment was US$ 7.5 billion. In addition to foreign direct investment, Vietnam's economy is also absorbing a large number of other forms of foreign capital. These high foreign capital injections are one of the culprits of Vietnam's current high inflation and economic turmoil. In the field of economics, there is a name to describe this phenomenon-"capital account crisis".
The outbreak of the Vietnamese financial crisis sounded the alarm for China. Vietnam's economic development path is similar to that of China in many places. Vietnam's economic structure can lead to financial crisis, and developing China also has the possibility of financial crisis. Therefore, the relevant departments of China government should take precautions, nip in the bud, formulate correct economic and monetary policies, strictly control inflation, and prevent the crisis from spreading to China. The Vietnamese financial crisis has the following warning to China's economic development.
First, strictly control inflation.
The direct cause of the financial crisis in Vietnam is high inflation. Due to the weak dollar policy adopted by the United States, the price of international commodities denominated in dollars has skyrocketed. This worldwide inflationary pressure has been transmitted to every corner of the globe with economic activities, leading to the rising cost of raw materials and the rapid growth of PPI. The upward pressure of PPI has gradually passed to CPI, pushing up inflation. China is also facing enormous inflationary pressure. Since CPI just started to rise last year, China has started to tighten monetary policy to curb liquidity. At the same time, various incentive measures have been taken to increase the production and supply of pork and grain, effectively preventing food prices from getting out of control. At the same time, curb the rise of electricity prices and oil prices in exchange for time to ease inflationary pressures. So far, China's domestic economy is running well. However, due to the high dependence of economic development on foreign countries, the ability to resist imported inflation is still a weak link in China. At the same time, Vietnam's CPI index is 25.2% and its GDP growth rate is 8.5%. However, the CPI statistics in Vietnam are somewhat different from those in China. Except for the house price, the CPI index in Vietnam will not exceed 10%, which is close to the current CPI index in China. Therefore, the government should pay close attention to and strictly control the current inflation in China.
Second, strictly monitor the entry and exit of international hot money and appropriately control the scale of foreign investment.
Compared with China, Viet Nam is a small economy, equivalent to the size of Suzhou's economy, so the impact of international hot money on its economy will be greater. Although China has some resistance to international hot rights, it must not be taken lightly. In the first quarter of this year, China's foreign exchange loans increased by 48.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 46.2 billion US dollars year-on-year, an increase of 18 times. The data in April was even worse, and the balance of foreign exchange reserves increased by $74.46 billion, hitting a single-month high. Among them, the monthly trade surplus and foreign direct investment increased by only $24.28 billion, and the unexplained foreign exchange inflow was as high as $50,654.38+$80 million. The purpose of the influx of hot money is to make a profit in a short time. Once this process is completed, they may suddenly retreat. For China, how to reduce the profit expectation and profit opportunity of hot money and avoid the profit retreat of hot money is a problem that the government needs to pay close attention to. If we strengthen the policy of "strict entry and wide exit" of capital when hot money is preparing to evacuate on a large scale, that is exactly what hot money wants.
At the same time, the scale of foreign investment should be properly controlled. Any foreign capital comes to China for profit, not to be Lei Feng in China. Our initial idea of exchanging market for technology and market for management failed to some extent. In the absence of domestic funds, the introduction of foreign capital can be said to be an achievement and can promote local economic development. However, after 30 years of reform and opening up, it is a bit slippery to emphasize the importance of introducing foreign capital when domestic capital is abundant and no suitable investment channels can be found. Properly control the scale of foreign capital, guide and make good use of domestic capital, and reasonably control the dependence of domestic economy on foreign capital.
The third is to strictly control changes in the RMB exchange rate.
The Vietnamese government's mistake in handling the exchange rate policy is one of the fuses leading to the financial crisis. China is now facing the problem of RMB appreciation. Why do so many huge sums of money flock to China? Their purpose is to wait for the appreciation of the renminbi and reap huge profits from it. According to the latest research report of Deutsche Bank, with the appreciation of RMB and the expectation of subsequent appreciation, the actual inflow of hot money in the first four months of this year even exceeded the increase of official foreign exchange reserves, reaching 370 billion US dollars. Some investors believe that the RMB exchange rate will break 6 or even lower in the near future, which brings great attraction to hot money. Vietnam's lessons show that rapid appreciation will not only attract more hot money, but also help it reduce the time cost of profit, rather than prevent it from entering. Now, all the hot money arriving in China is waiting for you, and further appreciation will only be what you want.
The fourth is to strictly curb asset bubbles.
From 2005 to March 2007, 12, Vietnam's stock market rose five times. At the same time, in recent years, land prices and house prices in Vietnam have been rising for ten years. As the land price rises too fast, foreign investors who invest in Ho Chi Minh Industrial Park in Vietnam have to pay twice the rent of Bangkok Industrial Park in Thailand, which reduces Vietnam's competitiveness. In the process of rising house prices, banks added fuel to the flames. According to Morgan Stanley's estimation, loans have been growing at an annual rate of more than 35%. The continuous rise of house prices and land prices has accumulated a lot of bubbles, which eventually became an important force to boost the financial crisis. At present, the average price of real estate in large and medium-sized cities in Vietnam has fallen by more than 50%. Because this decline is a concentrated outbreak of the bubble, its intensity is completely beyond the control of the government.
Some situations in China are similar to those in Viet Nam. However, since the stock market fell from 6,000 points to 2,900 points in June 2007, the cumulative decline has exceeded 60%. Without the financial crisis, the stock market crash had already broken out. It can be said that the valuation has returned to a reasonable level, and the P/E ratio basically has long-term investment value even compared with developed capital markets. However, the regulation of the real estate market has been ineffective. Because the rise and fall of house prices are closely related to local governments, many local governments have resisted macro-control policies in disguise, resulting in no obvious effect of real estate regulation since 2005 (only the house prices in Shenzhen and Guangzhou have undergone deep adjustment). The lessons of Vietnam, the previous Southeast Asian financial crisis and the lessons of Japan's bubble economy all show that there is no house price that will only rise or fall forever. If the bubble in the real estate market is not squeezed out in advance through regulation, it will have to face terrible hidden dangers. Like Viet Nam, China's housing prices have experienced a decade-long rising cycle. The internationally recognized index to measure the rationality of housing prices-the ratio of housing prices to income is usually three to five times the annual household income, but in the central areas of several big cities in China, the ratio has reached more than 30 times. Therefore, in the next stage, it is necessary for the government to make great efforts to strictly curb the real estate asset bubble.
In a word, the Vietnamese financial crisis must be highly valued by China's economic departments. Although Vietnam is a relatively small economy, there are many similarities between the economic development of Vietnam and China. By analyzing the economic development track of Vietnam in recent years, we can deeply reflect on the problems existing in China's economic development, formulate relevant policies in time, eliminate hidden dangers, and further promote China's economic development.