1.
First of all, what is our overall evaluation of the current world situation? According to our central leading comrades, it is generally like this:
It is called "overall relaxation, local tension", "overall peace, local war" and "overall stability, local turmoil". These three sentences can govern the present and the future. I don't want to waste time here. I divide the world situation since the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War into three stages to describe to teachers and students. Then analyze the real question. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union as a superpower, we call it the end of the Cold War. This contains multiple statements. Personally, I don't think the cold war is completely over. The cold war mentality still exists, and I am still using the concept of the end of the cold war. Three stages: the first stage is when the United States and the western world digest the results of the disintegration of the Soviet Union five years later. 199 1 year1February, the first Soviet Union disintegrated. When did the Soviet Union disintegrate? There are various statements in the newspapers. On February 2 1 day, leaders of Soviet participating countries met in Alamutu, announcing the disintegration of the Soviet Union and establishing a pluralistic body that is neither a state nor a supranational entity. This is June 199 1, 65438+February 2 1. 65438+February 25th is also the most talked about day in the newspaper. Gorbachev continued to serve as the president of the Soviet Union, and the Soviet flag landed over the Kremlin, which is a manifestation. On the 26th of the next day, the Soviet Union and the Supreme Soviet General Assembly of the Republic of China held a meeting to legally announce that the Soviet Union had gone through a legal procedure, although it was a formality, thus announcing the end of the Soviet Union. So there are three dates, which are actually 65438+February 2 1 and legally 65438+February 26. What are these two days? 65438+February 2 1 Stalin's birthday, 65438+February 26, Mao Zedong's birthday, thought-provoking! Then in these five years, the United States and the West helped Russia and other socialist countries in the former Soviet Union and ASEAN completely abandon the original traces of socialism and take the road of western capitalism. This is the quintessence of China. The United States and the West gave them assistance. Democratization and privatization mean political democratization, economic privatization and military nationalization. This is from the American perspective.
From abroad, the United States and the West began to accelerate the pace of NATO's eastward expansion. On the one hand, they induce you to fall to the west, on the other hand, they force you to accept western demands by NATO's eastward expansion. These five years have been a success in digesting the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Facts have proved that in the past five years, western aid has been lip service, such as Russia. The west has been paying attention to whether the situation in Russia can fall to the west and has made great efforts to this end. Why not rest assured? First, the producers of * * * still have a lot of power. Two presidential elections, especially the first presidential election, almost came to power as the chairman of the * * * production party, and I was very uneasy. Second, Russia has a large nuclear arsenal equivalent to that of the United States in the former Soviet Union. This country cannot be strong. Being strong is dangerous. Therefore, the so-called aid is all lip service. Yeltsin was disappointed and had to investigate his foreign policy from 1996. As you can see in the newspaper, it has changed from one-sided to comprehensive in the west. The second five years can be calculated from 1996 to 200 1, which is the five years when the United States and western countries want to further expand the achievements of the disintegration of the Soviet Union. It is difficult to push you completely to the west. The pace of NATO's eastward expansion is accelerating. What is one of the outstanding signs? He believes that Yugoslavia, led by the Southern Alliance, is the last red fortress of socialism in ASEAN, and it will soon be killed. So 1999 launched the Kosovo war, which is a milestone. In the third five years after George W. Bush took office, the only superpower in the United States stood out. After taking office, he completely abandoned the Clinton administration's strategic partnership with China in the 2 1 century, and the relationship with Russia was also in an antagonistic state, claiming that Russia and China were potential enemies of the United States, rivals, not partners. As a result, the "9 1 1" incident occurred one year after "Ge Leying" took office. What are the consequences of the "9 1 1" incident? The United States has always claimed that it is an absolutely rich, powerful and safe country in the world today. It's called superpowers. The "9 1 1" incident broke a gap in the link of absolute security, but the Bush administration did not learn from a painful experience, but further promoted its unilateralism and hegemonism around the world under the banner of anti-terrorism that everyone could understand, accept and even support. Anti-terrorism can not but support him. He came down to achieve the goal that could not be achieved during the Cold War in the name of anti-terrorism. For example, exclude the power of Russia, France and Germany in the Middle East, and even further want to infiltrate the former Soviet Union.
How to achieve the goal of further global expansion under the banner of counter-terrorism Therefore, choose the Middle East, a region with very important strategic position and extremely rich energy resources. Who are we going to operate on? Take Iraq for example, because Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq really has a bad reputation at home, and it once annexed Kuwait. How to achieve the goal of destroying Saddam's regime in Iraq? You must be a famous teacher, so give two reasons. First, Saddam participated in the "9 1 1" incident, and the slogan was aboveboard. Second, Saddam Hussein's regime possesses weapons of mass destruction, and this slogan is also in line with people's hearts. So we started the Iraq war. By the way, talking about Saddam here is another matter. As a powerful country, it is another matter for you to destroy a legitimate regime. As a result, the fighting has continued until now. Although the new regime has existed and has not ended, we can't get out of this quagmire. What are the consequences of the Iraq war? It has been more than four years now. In three years, 3,000 people died, and now it is close to 4,000 people, costing 300 billion US dollars. This is a guide to talking about the international situation. The purpose of the consequences of the Iraq war is to support a so-called new regime to occupy strategic locations in the Middle East and monopolize oil resources in the Middle East by telling its own democratic values. As a result, it caused so much damage and provoked religious and ethnic conflicts in Iraq. As a result, the contradiction between the United States and its original allies such as Germany and France became obvious, and the relationship with Russia further deteriorated. The aftermath of the Iraq war has also caused another problem, which is to urge North Korea, Iran and other countries to speed up their nuclear tests. Why? After the Bush administration announced that the Saddam issue was resolved, as a rogue country like Iraq, it had ulterior motives, followed by Iran and North Korea. I can take a preemptive strike against you because of the sinister racial nature of your rogue country. My preemptive strike can include the use of nuclear weapons. The result of Saddam's downfall will force the leaders of the Iranian and North Korean authorities to consider what to do. If we don't speed up the test of nuclear weapons, it is not enough to protect ourselves. So I'm going to talk about regional issues, and the United States is responsible. However, the Iraq war has its two sides and its positive side. That's because of the passive situation in Iraq, it has to appear on the North Korean nuclear issue.
The Six-Party Talks, a non-Iraqi way to solve problems, promoted the use of China's influence. This also provides China with the possibility to further coordinate with us on the issue of Taiwan Province Province through negotiations on the DPRK nuclear issue. Therefore, the war has a dual nature, not that the Iraq war is good, but that it is an objective consequence. From the Iraq war, we have a basic concept. It can be said that it is three affirmations and three minor changes. I told my classmates that I always hate using one, two and three, but in order to remember it better. Three for sure. What is this? First, judging from the Iraq war, the United States is indeed the only superpower in the world today, and this status will be hard to change for a long time, and no one can replace it. The news media deliberately hyped there, saying that China's economic aggregate will surpass that of the United States by 20 15, and the United States will also take this opportunity to put pressure on us.
The second decision is that the seriousness of public opinion against terrorism has increased. It is indeed global, but don't regard the importance of counter-terrorism as more important than anti-hegemony. The third determination is that judging from this change in the international situation and the consequences of the Iraq war, it is indeed very urgent to establish an international political order. The idea of building a harmonious region and a harmonious world put forward by our leaders is indeed lofty, but it still has a long way to go.
The third subtle change is that although the United States is the only superpower, its economic aggregate and comprehensive political and economic national strength surpass others. Unipolarization has been vigorously promoted, but the trend of multipolarization in the world has not changed. The so-called multi-polarization trend means that not one force is at work in the world, but many forces are at work. Second, the continuous development of economic globalization is manipulated by developed capitalist countries. For developing countries, there are advantages and disadvantages, and the side effects have increased significantly. In the international community, the voice against globalization is getting louder and louder. However, the general trend of globalization has not changed. The third has not changed, although the United States continues to promote its values and promote its so-called democratic model, pointing at both China and Russia. However, the diversification of development models in various countries in the world has not changed, so to sum up, the world multipolarization, economic globalization and diversification of development models mentioned by the central leading comrades are still a mainstream in the world today.
This is the previous overview, and the following is the theme. What do you think of the current world situation? Six words are the standard of my lecture today, one is comprehensive, the other is profound and the other is popular. So on this premise, I divide all aspects of the world into four sections. The first beat is called the key beat, which is the relationship between eight countries. Eight-nation relations can involve eight aspects, and I will focus on four.
Sino-US relations, Sino-Russian relations, Sino-Japanese relations, plus Russia-US relations. There are other relations between the four countries, such as Sino-British relations, China-EU relations, Japan-US relations and US-Europe relations, which are all very important. I'm afraid I don't have that much time to talk about it. This is a key area.
The second part focuses on hot spots, which are the three hot spots in the world in 2006. One is the North Korean nuclear issue, and the other is the Palestinian-Israeli conflict related to the Iraq war. The third part talks about scenic spots. The United States is engaged in the Soviet color revolution, which is colorful. The left wing in Latin America is very active and colorful now. The progress of the EU is relatively difficult and colorful. So, I call it a scenic spot. Perhaps everyone is most interested in the revival of Russia and the state of the color revolution.
2. First, the United States continues to pursue a super-hegemonic strategy and actively participates in world affairs, but it is also exposed that it is stretched and unable to do so.
The United States has adjusted its policies and strategies. The three major components of Bushism, namely unilateralism "preemptive strike" and regime change through democratization, have completely lost their former edge, and some have even been shelved. In order to strengthen and expand the support point of American foreign policy, the United States has stepped up its efforts to repair its relations with European allies, worked hard to stabilize its relations with big countries such as China and Russia, eased its rigid attitude on certain regions and hot issues, and attached importance to its work with developing countries in Africa and other regions.
However, it is wrong to think that the United States has changed its diplomatic strategy or is implementing strategic contraction. In fact, the United States has not spared the proliferation of counter-terrorism and the Middle East, nor has it forgotten to guard against the challenges that other big powers may pose to American hegemony. The United States continues to vigorously operate Iraq and suppress Iran. Strengthen the competition with Russia in CIS and squeeze its strategic space. In China, we played chess in Puckilo, strengthened the US-Japan military alliance, and tried to actively win over India and infiltrate into Mongolia. At the same time, it enriches ideology in foreign policy and highlights American democracy and freedom as a card of its global strategy.
However, the hand of the United States is too long, and it is inevitable to pay attention to one thing and lose sight of another. Although relations with European allies have improved, differences in economic, security and diplomatic concepts still exist between the United States and Europe, and structural contradictions have not been resolved. The United States is deeply involved in Iraq, the Palestinian-Israeli peace process is full of difficulties, and the Iranian nuclear issue is in a dilemma. In the struggle with Russia for the Commonwealth of Independent States, there are gains and losses, and uncertainties in US-Russian relations have increased. In the Asia-Pacific region, the "containment" of China has not achieved the expected results, so we have to strengthen the "contact" hand. The so-called "responsible stakeholders" and "double betting" are the biggest manifestations of this policy. The centrifugal tendency of allies such as South Korea and Australia is also more obvious. At home, Bush's foreign policy has been widely questioned, political, economic and social contradictions are prominent, and with the consequences of natural disasters such as hurricanes, Bush's support rate has fallen to a new low.
Second, the major forces in the world are developing in a balanced direction. Although this process will be long, it is important that it has already started.
Through the Iraq war, the United States lost its hard power and soft power, especially its soft power. Although the United States will maintain its super position for a long time, its dominant position in the world will be weakened. Relatively speaking, other forces in the world have made great progress. The pace of Russia's national rejuvenation has accelerated, counteracting the American squeeze. The EU still maintains a strong position in the world, second only to the United States. Despite the setbacks in integration, the general direction of the EU will not change. Japan's economy has stepped out of the trough and has a strong desire to become a political power. The economies of China and India are growing rapidly, and many other developing countries are also rising. The relationship of dependence, cooperation, competition and competition among great powers is increasing day by day, and various "triangular relationships" among great powers are playing an increasingly important role. In the long run, the world pattern and international power distribution are brewing changes.
Third, the deepening of economic globalization has become an important factor affecting internal and state-to-state relations.
On the one hand, economic globalization has brought countries closer and closer, increased interdependence and reduced the risk of confrontation between countries. On the other hand, economic globalization has also aggravated the imbalance of development, and the gap between the rich and the poor in some countries and the economic gap between developed and developing countries has further widened. In developed countries such as Europe and America, the poverty population has increased, the unemployment rate has risen, and social and political contradictions have developed; Some developing countries are marginalized, and their international competitiveness is getting weaker and weaker, which affects domestic stability. Although the EU constitutional treaty was rejected in France and the Netherlands, the riots in France were caused by the internal problems of these countries and the rapid expansion of the EU, but they are obviously closely related to the impact of globalization.
Under the background of globalization, international economic frictions are increasing day by day, and global and transnational problems are more prominent than before. The shortage of energy resources and high oil prices not only have a negative impact on the development of the world economy, but also may intensify competition among countries.
As a rebound to globalization, anti-globalization activities are also expanding, and various globalization forces are moving towards unity, spreading geographically from Europe and America to Latin America and Africa. Anti-globalization activities are not limited to economic issues, but also extend to social and political issues.
The momentum of economic regionalization is strong. In the initial stage, although regionalization can be used as a supplement to globalization, in the long run, regionalization is actually a precaution against the negative consequences of globalization. This trend is of great significance to the formation of the future world economic structure.
Fourth, international security issues are prominent and the threat of terrorism is increasing. The impact of public security threats such as natural disasters and infectious diseases on international politics cannot be ignored.
The United States has greatly expanded its military budget, and the total world military expenditure has grown rapidly, exceeding 1 trillion dollars. Many hot issues in the world have not been resolved, the security situation in Iraq is still grim, and it is very difficult to solve the Iranian nuclear issue and the DPRK nuclear issue. Some regions such as the Middle East, East Asia, Central Asia and some CIS countries are gestating new turmoil and conflicts.
Terrorism is still rampant, and terrorist activities are becoming more and more dispersed, hidden and localized, with high frequency and great destructive power. This year, vicious incidents have occurred in Britain, Egypt, Indonesia and India. Tsunami, hurricane, earthquake and other natural disasters and frequent infectious diseases such as avian influenza pose outstanding threats to public security, and various international "disaster relief actions" frequently become prominent features of international politics.
China's diplomacy is colorful.
Under the current international situation, peace, development and cooperation are still the mainstream, and the opportunities for peaceful development in China outweigh the challenges. In 2005, China's diplomacy actively carried out its work, seized opportunities and met challenges, further shaped the international image of making unremitting efforts for world peace, development and cooperation, and showed its frank, responsible, pragmatic, flexible and open diplomatic style and the style of a socialist country that adhered to principles and dared to speak out. Proceeding from the interests of peaceful development of China and the world, China's diplomacy comprehensively deals with relations with neighboring countries, big countries and developing countries and multilateral diplomacy, strengthens its diplomatic soft power and achieves a series of new achievements.
Create the surrounding geographical support. Bilateral relations between China and neighboring countries have developed in an all-round way, and regional and sub-regional economic cooperation organizations and regional security mechanisms (such as 10+ 1,/kloc-0+3, SCO, APEC, Mekong River Cooperation, ASEAN Regional Forum, etc.) have been successfully launched and achieved fruitful results; Unswervingly push forward the six-party talks and make important progress on the DPRK nuclear issue. Clever planning has made the situation in the Taiwan Strait develop in a direction conducive to containing and controlling independence. Breakthrough progress has been made in implementing "* * * common development" in the South China Sea with the Philippines and Vietnam. Relations with South Asian countries have been further strengthened, and China will become an observer of the South Asian Regional Cooperation Organization.
Build a stable framework for relations between major powers. China-Russia strategic cooperative partnership has been further deepened. The two countries successfully held their first joint military exercise and made substantial progress in cooperation in energy and other fields. China and India have signed political guiding principles for solving border issues, established a strategic partnership oriented to peace and prosperity, and the cooperation between the two countries has developed in an all-round way. We reached a series of important understandings with the EU on strengthening strategic cooperation, successfully held the eighth meeting of China-EU leaders and launched the China-EU strategic dialogue. China-EU exchanges and cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, science and technology, culture, education and justice have been steadily advanced. This year, leaders of China and the United States met frequently, and the strategic dialogue formed a mechanism, which restricted the negative aspects of bilateral relations and maintained the momentum of steady development. In Sino-Japanese relations, he adhered to principles and resolutely opposed the stubborn stance of Koizumi and Japanese right-wing forces on major issues such as history.
Highlight the basic position of relations between developing countries. China will continue to strengthen bilateral cooperation with developing countries, constantly enrich the forms and contents of cooperation with developing countries, and build a new type of partnership featuring long-term stability, equality, mutual benefit and all-round cooperation. China's aid to developing countries has increased, and its economic and trade cooperation has developed rapidly. Actively deepen coordination and cooperation with developing countries on international issues, promote the construction of China-Arab cooperation forum and the follow-up of China-Africa cooperation forum, and enhance relations with Latin American regional organizations.
Actively participate in the international system and active multilateral diplomacy. China has played an important role in supporting the United Nations to play its due role and influence, safeguarding the authority of the Security Council, and upholding principles on the reform of the United Nations. In accordance with the spirit of the Charter of the United Nations, actively participate in the cooperation of the United Nations in peacekeeping, arms control, counter-terrorism, development, human rights and justice, environment and other issues, as well as the activities of various specialized agencies of the United Nations. Attach importance to other international multilateral systems, promote international arms control and disarmament, and support multilateral arms control processes, including the construction of non-proliferation mechanisms. Support multilateral pragmatic cooperation in the fields of counter-terrorism, non-proliferation, humanitarian assistance, environment and climate, avian flu and transnational crime.
Unswervingly safeguard national sovereignty, security and the interests of the state and citizens. On the issue of Taiwan Province Province, I will do all-round work for the international community around the Anti-Secession Law, and clarify my principled position of safeguarding the reunification of the motherland. The resumption of diplomatic relations with Grenada and Senegal frustrated the proposal of Taiwan Province authorities to "participate" in the United Nations for the 13th time in a row, and once again frustrated Taiwan Province's attempt to "participate" in the World Health Assembly. Vigorously promote economic diplomacy, make substantial progress in energy cooperation with Russia and Kazakhstan, steadily promote energy resources cooperation with the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and other regions, actively promote various bilateral, regional and multilateral economic cooperation, and serve the expansion of opening up and the "going out" of enterprises. Actively safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of China citizens and enterprises overseas, and properly handle all kinds of consular protection cases.
Strengthen diplomatic soft power. China put forward a series of diplomatic ideas with China characteristics, such as: peace and development are the themes of today's world, seeking peace through cooperation and development through cooperation; Views on the establishment of a new international political and economic order on the basis of the Five Principles of Peace: the views of tolerance and complementarity, respect for the diversity of civilizations, the views of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and cooperation as important means to ensure international security, and the views of developing extensive and mutually beneficial international economic cooperation under the guidance of Scientific Outlook on Development. Recently, China put forward the slogan of building a harmonious world on the basis of summing up the above ideas. China embodied these thoughts in foreign policy, diplomatic practice and foreign propaganda, which enhanced China's international image, international prestige and status, and enhanced China's foreign influence.