China is the largest developing country in the world and one of the countries with the largest carbon emissions in the world. In the past 30 years, with the sustained and rapid economic growth, energy consumption has risen sharply. In 2009, the total energy consumption in China was about 365,438+tons of standard coal, and the average annual growth rate from 2006 to 2009 was 9. 1%. China's primary energy consumption is dominated by coal, accounting for about 70% of the total primary energy consumption. The rapid growth of energy demand has increased carbon emissions. According to the report of the International Energy Agency, the total carbon dioxide emission of China in 2005 was about 565,438+billion tons, accounting for 18% of the global emissions, ranking second in the world, second only to the United States. In 2007, it surpassed the United States to become the largest country in global carbon dioxide emissions, accounting for 2 1% of global emissions.

In China, the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation accounts for about 865,438+0% of the total installed capacity, so the power industry emits a lot of carbon dioxide. According to the data of the International Energy Agency, the carbon dioxide emitted by thermal power accounts for 40% ~ 50% of the national carbon dioxide emissions, and will continue to rise in the future. Therefore, carbon emission reduction in power industry is of great significance to China's low-carbon development.

Power system mainly includes power supply, power grid and power users, among which power grid is the link between power supply and power users. At present, the key points of carbon emission reduction in power industry are: improving the efficiency of power generation, transmission and electricity consumption; Vigorously develop clean energy power generation. Building a strong smart grid can promote the development and utilization of clean energy and improve the energy efficiency of the power industry. 20 10 the government work report of the third session of the 11th national people's congress has clearly put forward "strengthening the construction of smart grid".

The Role of Strong Smart Grid in Energy Saving and Emission Reduction

At present, State Grid Corporation of China has put forward the goal of building a strong smart grid. By 2020, a "strong smart grid with UHV power grid as the backbone, coordinated development of power grids at all levels and characterized by informationization, automation and interaction" will be built, and the traditional power grid will be upgraded and leapfrogged to an efficient, economical, clean and interactive modern power grid. The construction of a strong smart grid includes six links: power generation, transmission, substation, distribution, electricity consumption and dispatching. Large-scale grid connection technology of clean energy units, flexible UHV AC /DC transmission technology, intelligent substation technology, distribution automation technology, two-way interactive key technology and intelligent dispatching technology are the key technologies in building a strong smart grid.

After the completion of the strong smart grid, it will play an important role in energy conservation and emission reduction, which is mainly reflected in: supporting large-scale access of clean energy units, accelerating the development of clean energy, and promoting the optimization and adjustment of China's energy structure; Guide power users to shift from peak hours to low hours, improve power load rate, stabilize the output of thermal power units and reduce coal consumption for power generation; Promote the popularization and application of advanced transmission and distribution technology in power system and reduce transmission loss rate; It provides technical support for the effective interaction between power grid and users, which is beneficial to the intelligent use of electricity by users and improves the efficiency of electricity use; Promote the development of electric vehicles, promote the development of related industries, and promote the upgrading of industrial structure.

Carbon emission reduction benefits of strong smart grid

From the five aspects of supporting clean energy power generation access, improving thermal power generation efficiency, improving grid transmission efficiency, supporting users to use electricity intelligently, and promoting the development of electric vehicles, by 2020, if a strong smart grid is basically built in the business area of State Grid Corporation of China, carbon dioxide can be reduced by about 654.38+0.53 billion tons. (See table 1 for the carbon reduction benefits of a strong smart grid in 2020. )

Support access to clean energy. Developing clean energy such as hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and solar energy is of great significance for optimizing the energy structure of China, reducing fossil energy consumption and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Strong smart grid integrates advanced information and communication technology, automation technology, energy storage technology, operation control and scheduling technology, which provides technical support for intensive and large-scale development and application of clean energy. Strong smart grid can solve the problem of safe and stable operation of power grid caused by large-scale access such as wind power and solar power generation, and improve the ability of power grid to accept clean energy. The powerful cross-regional power grid structure can provide output conditions for the large-scale intensive development of clean energy far from the load center.

According to the plan, by 2020, the installed capacity of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and solar energy in the operation area of State Grid Corporation will increase by about1566,000, 50180,000, 97.25 million and1820,000 kilowatts respectively compared with 2005. According to the calculation that the annual utilization hours of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and solar power are 3,500 hours, 7,500 hours, 2,000 hours and 1.400 hours respectively, in 2020, the clean energy power generation in the operating area of State Grid Corporation of China will increase by 1. 1.4 trillion kwh compared with 2005, which can reduce coal consumption by 3.93.

Improve the efficiency of thermal power generation and reduce coal consumption. Driven by the development of strong smart grid, the installed capacity of clean energy power generation has increased; At the same time, due to the increase of peak-shaving power supply, the operation efficiency of thermal power plant is improved, and the coal consumption per unit power generation is reduced, thus reducing the fuel consumption of power generation system. Through "demand side response", users are guided to transfer power load from peak period to low period, thus reducing the frequency and amplitude of peak load, peak-valley difference of power grid load and output adjustment of thermal power units, improving the efficiency of thermal power units, reducing coal consumption of thermal power units and reducing greenhouse gas and environmental pollutant emissions. According to the overall optimization planning of power system and the calculation of system production simulation software, under the influence of the development of strong smart grid, the national average coal consumption of thermal power units will decrease by 5.8 g/kWh in 2020. According to the plan, the installed capacity of thermal power in the operation area of State Grid Corporation of China will reach 936 million kilowatts in 2020. According to the calculation of thermal power utilization hours of 5,300 hours, reducing coal consumption for power generation can save 29 million tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 80 million tons.

Improve the transmission efficiency of power grid and reduce line loss. In the future, China's UHV technology and powerful smart grid will greatly reduce the power loss during power transmission. In addition, the intelligent control of smart stations by flexible transmission technology and the real-time two-way interaction with power users can optimize the power flow distribution of the system and improve the transmission efficiency of the transmission and distribution network.

The advanced voltage control system of strong smart grid can effectively improve the energy-saving voltage regulation level of conventional power grid, improve power transmission efficiency and reduce transmission and distribution losses. The research of American Northwest Pacific National Laboratory (PNNL) shows that the advanced voltage control system can make the power saving potential of the power grid itself 1% ~ 4% of the on-grid power.

Considering the actual situation of domestic line loss, there is relatively little room for future decline. It is assumed that the development of a strong smart grid can reduce the average line loss rate in the operating area of State Grid Corporation of China from 6.58% in 2005 to 5.7% in 2020, reduce the line loss power by 50.2 billion kWh, and correspondingly reduce the carbon dioxide emission by 510.45 million tons.

Support users to use electricity intelligently and improve the efficiency of electricity use. An important feature of smart grid is that it can realize two-way interaction between power grid and power users through innovative marketing strategies, guide users to actively participate in market competition, and realize effective "demand side response".

On the one hand, smart grid can provide users with storage and feedback functions of electricity consumption information. Users' electricity consumption information is collected by smart meters, and information such as electricity price, electricity consumption and electricity charge in different periods are fed back in time to guide and change users' electricity consumption behavior. Users can set parameters for various electrical equipment according to their own electricity habits, electricity price level and electricity consumption environment. Intelligent electrical equipment such as air conditioner and lighting can automatically optimize its power consumption mode according to relevant parameters, so as to achieve the best power consumption effect, thereby improving the power consumption efficiency of the equipment, saving electricity, and reducing electricity expenditure by selecting power consumption time. The research of PNNL shows that the information intervention and feedback system can improve the electricity consumption efficiency of users by 3%.

On the other hand, smart grid can provide users with automatic fault diagnosis service. Real-time collection of electrical equipment operation, timely detection of faults and feedback to users, users timely adjust and optimize the operation mode of equipment, reduce power consumption and operation and maintenance costs. Research shows that by providing this service, users' electricity efficiency can be improved by 3%.

At present, the electricity price mechanism in China is not reasonable, the interaction between power users and power system is poor, and the power users still have great potential to save electricity. With the development of strong smart grid construction, the interaction between power grid and users will continue to deepen, and power users will save electricity more actively. Referring to the research results of PNNL, combined with the actual situation of electricity consumption in China, it is assumed that a strong smart grid can improve the electricity efficiency of users by 4%. According to the calculation of the total electricity consumption of the whole society in the operation area of State Grid Corporation of China in 2020, and the auxiliary power consumption rate is 5%, the power users in the operation area of State Grid Corporation of China can save about 265.438+05 billion kWh of electricity and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 235 million tons in 2020.

Promote the development of electric vehicles and reduce oil consumption. Automobile is an important field of energy consumption in China. With the increasing number of cars, fuel consumption will continue to rise, which brings great hidden dangers to China's energy security. Automobile exhaust emissions have also become an important source of urban air pollution. An electric vehicle is a vehicle powered by electric energy. In terms of energy efficiency, the energy efficiency of electric vehicles is 1 ~ 2 times higher than that of fuel vehicles. From the economic point of view of operation, electric vehicles only consume 10 kwh per 100 kilometers, and the operating cost is much lower than that of ordinary cars.

It is estimated that in 2020, driven by smart grid-related technologies, about 25 million electric vehicles will be added to the operating area of State Grid Corporation of China in 2020 compared with 2005. According to the calculation that each electric vehicle travels 20,000 kilometers per year, it can replace 35.5 million tons of gasoline every year, and realize about 79.4 million tons of carbon dioxide emission reduction.

The contribution of building a strong smart grid to achieving China's carbon emission reduction targets.

In a long period of time in the future, the process of industrialization and urbanization in China will be accelerated, the economy will maintain steady and rapid growth, and the rapid economic development will lead to a substantial increase in energy demand. According to the prediction of relevant institutions, China's energy consumption will reach 4.5 billion tons of standard coal in 2020, and the national GDP will reach 62 trillion yuan (comparable price in 2005). According to the carbon emission intensity in 2005, the total carbon dioxide emission in China will exceed 654.38+073 billion tons in 2020. This has far exceeded the limits of China's resources and environment.

As a major challenge to the sustainable development of human society, climate change has attracted great attention from the international community. In order to actively respond to the problem of climate warming and realize green development and low-carbon development, the China Municipal Government has put forward the carbon emission reduction target of "by 2020, the carbon dioxide emission per unit GDP will be reduced by 40% ~ 45% compared with 2005". If the intensity of carbon dioxide emission in China in 2020 is reduced by 40% ~ 45% compared with that in 2005, the total carbon dioxide emission in 2020 should be controlled below 95 ~ 65.438+0.04 billion tons, and the carbon dioxide emission should be reduced by 6.9 ~ 7.8 billion tons.

According to the above calculation, building a strong smart grid can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about10.53 billion tons, and the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 will be 8.8% lower than that in 2005, which will contribute 19% ~ 22% to the carbon emission reduction target of China in 2020. If the state strengthens the implementation of relevant policies, this contribution rate may increase.

Construction of UHV in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan —— 500 billion imagination space

The downstream of electrical equipment industry involves power generation, transmission and distribution and electricity consumption, including electric power, power grid, metallurgy, coal and other industries, which is closely related to industrial production and residents' life. Because of its special status, the state has strict supervision over the downstream power and power grid industries, and has issued a series of policies and norms to restrict the business behavior of enterprises.

From top to bottom, the Twelfth Five-Year Plan is the most instructive policy at the national level at present, which will affect the development and transformation in the next five years. By interpreting the 12th Five-Year Plan and the planning of emerging industries, it can be determined that the electrical equipment industry will focus on the development of smart grid (including UHV), industrial energy-saving products and the transformation of distribution network in the next five years.

From bottom to top, popularize mature technologies (such as flexible power transmission and transformation, frequency conversion technology and intelligent power system) first; Based on the comprehensive analysis of market space and development progress, UHVDC transmission, flexible power transmission and transformation, high-performance high-low voltage frequency converters, intelligent substations and intelligent power consumption systems, and rural distribution network transformation will become the development focus of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.

Starting from the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the investment in electrical equipment industry will show a "polarization" trend in the next five years: the transformation of UHV backbone network and distribution network will become the theme of power grid investment, "intelligence" will promote the proportion of secondary equipment, and frequency converters in industrial fields will be further popularized. Specifically, in terms of UHV, DC construction is basically in line with the schedule, and the communication delay is caused by the delay in the acceptance of the demonstration line, which is currently showing a trend of speeding up. Nine UHVDC lines will be built in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, with an estimated total investment of 21700 million yuan. UHV air conditioning has completed the construction of "three horizontal, three vertical and one ring network". It is optimistic that the investment will reach 298.9 billion yuan. If the influence of project delay is considered, the forecast is about 209.2 billion yuan. It is estimated that the investment of UHVDC converter station is101400 million yuan, of which converter transformer, converter valve and DC protection system account for 65%; The investment of UHV AC substation is 65.438+0225 billion yuan, mainly including transformers, reactors and GIS switches, accounting for 654.38+08%, 654.38+06% and 24% respectively.

Developing smart grid and UHV is an endogenous demand.

China's power supply has long faced the status quo of long distance, high load and large capacity, which is a development problem different from most countries in the world. Endogenous demand determines that China power grid must surpass all other countries and regions in strength, breadth and stability.

The difference of energy and power load distribution makes UHV an inevitable choice.

China's energy distribution is mainly in the north and west. Taking thermal power as an example, nearly 80% of the proven coal reserves are concentrated in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other regions, while the economically developed eastern coastal areas have a greater demand for electricity. In the past, it was neither economical nor environmentally friendly to transport coal by rail. In the future, direct transmission through the power grid can solve this problem well.

According to the new energy development plan, it is estimated that the proportion of new energy in primary energy consumption in China should reach about 15% by 2020. Wind energy and hydropower also have the problem that resources are distributed far from the load center.

In China, UHV refers to AC 1000kV and above and DC 800kV and above. According to the data provided by State Grid Corporation, the first-class UHV DC can send 6 million kilowatts of power, which is 5~6 times of the existing 500 kV DC network, and the transmission distance is 2~3 times of the latter, which greatly improves the efficiency. At the same time, it can also transmit the same power. If UHV lines are used for power transmission, compared with 500 kV EHV lines, 60% land can be saved. It is precisely because of these advantages that UHV will become the inevitable direction of China power grid construction in the future.

Power grid scale and regional networking put forward new requirements for security and stability.

China's installed power capacity has exceeded 900 million kilowatts, which will increase to 65.438+0.35 billion kilowatts in 2065.438+05 and 65.438+0.79 billion kilowatts in 2020.

By the end of 2009, the loop length of transmission lines of 220 kV and above in China reached 399,400 kilometers, and the scale of China power grid has surpassed that of the United States, ranking first in the world.

The increase of power grid scale, the increasingly complex structure and the interconnection of regional power grids put forward higher requirements for the safety and stability of operation. By introducing advanced sensing measurement technology and adopting safer and more environmentally friendly equipment, the overall integration and two-way communication between equipment and control are realized, which is the embodiment of "intelligence" of power grid.

The process of urbanization and the construction of new countryside are beneficial to the development of distribution network.

China's industrialization has entered the middle and late stage. According to this level of industrialization, the urbanization rate should be 55%~60%, while in 2009, the urbanization rate in China was only 46.6%. In the next 5~ 10 years, the urbanization process will promote the construction of power grid, especially distribution network, with the emphasis on the expansion and transformation of urban network.

There are great differences between urban and rural development in China. In the future, whether from the perspective of improving people's livelihood and promoting social harmony, or from the perspective of stimulating domestic demand and encouraging farmers' consumption, it is required to build and upgrade rural power grids to meet the needs of new rural construction.

It is precisely because the development of China power grid must match the level of industrial production and residential electricity consumption that the demand for UHV, smart grid and distribution network construction has emerged. Endogenous growth conforms to the law of industrial and economic operation and is a sustained and stable trend.

The future development of power grid presents "two poles and three key points"

The three major directions of China power grid development in the 12th Five-Year Plan are: UHV, intelligent transformation and distribution network construction.

UHV and smart grid: the planning proposal mentions vigorously developing clean energy including hydropower and nuclear power, and at the same time "strengthening power grid construction and developing smart grid".

Distribution network construction: the planning proposal requires "strengthening rural infrastructure construction and public services" and "continuing to promote rural power grid transformation".

In the past ten years, China's power grid construction was mainly based on 220~500kV (750kV in the northwest), and it will develop to "UHV" and both ends of distribution network in the future. Intelligentization meets the stability and control requirements of complex networks, and the "three key points" of power grid are clear.

Considering the requirements of power grid for safety and stability, relatively mature technologies should be popularized first, and the construction of equipment or trial operation lines that are still in the stage of network connection may be delayed, so investment in different industries should be differentiated. Generally speaking:

First, the progress of UHVDC construction is basically in line with expectations, and high-end primary equipment manufacturers and flexible power transmission and transformation enterprises will benefit significantly in the future.

Second, the development of "intelligence" corresponds to the construction and renovation of secondary equipment. The intelligence of distribution networks and power terminals is relatively mature, and we are optimistic about leading enterprises with technical and channel advantages.

Third, the transformation of distribution network, especially rural network, emphasizes equipment upgrading and electrification. There are a large number of upstream equipment suppliers with fierce competition and obvious regionalization characteristics.

It is expected that UHVDC, especially flexible power transmission and transformation technology will be popularized the fastest, followed by DC high-end primary equipment manufacturing, smart substation investment and rural power grid transformation.

UHVDC —— Developing first-class high-end primary equipment

"UHV power grid" refers to the transmission network with AC voltage 1000kV and DC voltage of 800kV and above, which can meet the long-distance large-capacity transmission demand of 2000~3000 km from east to west and 800~2000 km from north to south.

At the beginning of the 11th Five-Year Plan, the State Grid proposed to "accelerate the construction of a powerful national grid with UHV as the core". After five years' development, the demonstration project of 0/000 kV AC in Southeast Shanxi-Nanyang-Jingmen/KLOC passed the acceptance test, and the DC±800 kV demonstration project was put into operation on Jiaba-Shanghai line, initially forming the North China-Central China-East China UHV synchronous power grid, basically building the northwest 750 kV main network and realizing the interconnection with Xinjiang 750 kV.

Large-scale investment in DC transmission will become the highlight of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan"

At present, UHVDC transmission in China is mainly 800kV. Technically, it can directly transmit power to the load center from point to point, with high power and long distance, which is suitable for high power and long distance transmission, while maintaining the relative independence between power grids.

800kV Guang Yun UHVDC of China Southern Power Grid was put into operation 2010 in June; The 800 kV UHV DC of State Grid also passed the acceptance inspection during the year, which shows that the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" DC project is progressing smoothly, and the development progress of DC transmission technology is basically in line with expectations.

According to the development plan of State Grid, 9 800 kV DC lines are planned to be put into operation during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, and 2 lines will be started during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. At present, the bidding for the Jinping-Sunan line is being carried out in an orderly manner.

In terms of total investment, the two lines completed on 20 16 will be confirmed as 70% investment during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. The total investment scale of State Grid 800 kV UHV DC is expected to reach 2 1 700 million yuan (see table1). The DC±800kv project planned by China Southern Power Grid is a line from Nuozhadu to Guangdong, with a total investment of about 654.38+087 billion yuan. It is planned to be put into operation in 2065.438+02.

During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, State Grid and China Southern Power Grid estimate that the investment in 800 kV HVDC transmission will reach 235.7 billion yuan, and the construction of UHVDC will be started in an all-round way.

At the same time, considering the construction of 660 kV DC and 400 kV DC of the State Grid and 500 kV DC of the South Grid, the total DC investment scale of the two networks reached 33 1.2 billion yuan during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period.

Equipment supplier-a feast of high-end primary equipment

UHVDC includes the construction of lines and converter stations, among which the incremental investment effect of converter stations on upstream equipment suppliers is more obvious. The main equipment of converter station includes converter transformer, reactor, lightning arrester, converter valve and reactive power compensation device, among which the main investment projects are converter transformer and converter valve.

The equipment investment in converter station of Guang Yun Line exceeds half of the total planned amount. Considering the high price of demonstration line equipment, it is estimated that the proportion will be about 43% after scale construction in the future.

The total investment of 800kV UHVDC equipment in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan is about 654.38+0.0/kloc-0.40 billion yuan, including 39.5 billion yuan for converter transformer, 20.3 billion yuan for converter valve and 665.438+0 billion yuan for DC protection system. If 660kV, 500kV and 400kV networks are considered, the investment in converter equipment of the main station is142.4 billion yuan, including 55.5 billion yuan for converter transformer, 28.5 billion yuan for converter valve and 8.5 billion yuan for DC protection.

Generally optimistic about the first-class equipment faucet.

UHVDC is a powerful transmission network, which will generally benefit from primary equipment manufacturers after the scale construction begins. Considering that UHV has high requirements for equipment stability and technology, and has invested a lot in research and development in the early stage, the leading players in the sub-sectors will continue to lead.

Transformer: The bidding for construction has been completed, and the equipment suppliers are mainly industry leaders such as TBEA and china xd.

The share of TBEA in the bidding of converter transformer is close to 45%, that of china xd is about 35%, and that of Tianweibao transformer is 20%. Considering that the bidding volume of the demonstration line is relatively small and the share is relatively concentrated, the relative share of leading enterprises will decrease slightly after the comprehensive construction, but the absolute bidding volume will increase obviously.

Converter valve: Domestic converter valve manufacturers include china xd, Xuji Group and Electric Power Research Institute. Considering the high technical threshold of converter valve, the three companies will continue to share the world in the future.

DC protection system: Xuji Electric, Nanrui Jibao and Sifang Jibao, accounting for 38%, 60% and 2% respectively.

Reactive Power Compensation Technology-Development Driven by "UHV"

Reactive power compensation technology aims to adjust the reactive power in the power grid, reduce the reactive power transmitted by power supply lines, and ultimately reduce the power loss caused by reactive power transmission of lines and transformers, improve the utilization efficiency of power supply and lines, and ensure the stability of power grid operation. Because of the long distance and high voltage of UHV transmission lines, it is necessary to install reactive power compensation devices in substations and distribution terminals of transmission networks.

Reactive power compensation is mainly divided into parallel type and series type. At present, the Electric Power Research Institute is the industry leader, accounting for more than 80%. Shunt reactive power compensation SVC of Rongxin Co., Ltd. is widely used in the industrial field, and the order of national grid was obtained during the year, which shows that the pace of grid opening is accelerating; TCSC won the bid for China Southern Power Grid, and it is expected to achieve good results in the power grid market after the joint venture with Siemens.

It is estimated that during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the market capacity of shunt reactive power compensation (SVC+SVG) will be 5 1 billion yuan, the demand for TCSC will be 6 billion yuan, and the total demand for reactive power compensation will be1122 million yuan, with an average of 2.22 billion yuan.

Based on the above analysis, the following core viewpoints are put forward: First, the progress of UHVDC in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan is in line with expectations, and the delay in communication construction is a high probability event. At present, State Grid is speeding up project approval and bidding, and the approval of future projects will benefit the industry as a whole.

Second, UHV buildings are mainly high-end primary equipment. Due to the technical difficulty, it needs a lot of upfront investment, and the industry leader has obvious advantages, which will occupy a major share in the future.

3. 20 1 1 is the first year of comprehensive construction, and the contribution of investment to the performance of related companies in the industry will be gradually reflected in the second half of this year.

UHV AC- behind schedule, looking forward to speeding up project approval.

The acceptance of the demonstration line has been postponed, and the speed of communication construction is just around the corner.

The UHV AC demonstration project of State Grid 1000kV line did not pass the national acceptance until August 20 10. At present, the construction progress of UHV air conditioners lags behind market expectations.

State Grid Corporation of China began bidding for the demonstration project expansion project in September last year. It is reported that the preliminary work of another UHV AC line, Ximeng-Nanjing, is being carried out in an orderly manner, which indicates that the State Grid is working hard to promote the UHV AC project, and the future construction speed can be expected.

According to the national grid planning, by 20 15, the UHV power grids in North China, East China and Central China (referred to as "three transformations") will be basically completed, forming a "three vertical, three horizontal and one ring network". In terms of UHV exchange projects, energy bases in Ximeng, Meng Xi, Zhangbei and northern Shaanxi send electricity to Sanhua through three vertical UHV exchange channels, while coal-fired power in the north and hydropower in the southwest send electricity to the UHV ring network in North China, Central China and Yangtze River Delta through three horizontal UHV exchange channels.

Judging from the preliminary preparation and bidding, the "three vertical" lines are progressing rapidly and are expected to start construction before other lines in the future.

It is estimated that the total investment corresponding to the UHV AC planning of State Grid is 298.9 billion yuan, including 654.38+022.5 billion yuan for UHV substations and 654.38+076.4 billion yuan for lines.

Good equipment-transformers, GIS, reactors

UHV AC equipment includes transformers, reactors, switchgear GIS, disconnectors, lightning arresters and reactive power compensation equipment, among which transformers, reactors and GIS account for a relatively large proportion, and the roughly calculated proportions are 65,438+08%, 65,438+06% and 24% respectively according to the investment composition of demonstration lines.

Optimistic estimation: During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, all seven UHV AC lines have been put into operation; Pessimistic estimation: It is estimated that 70% of the investment will be completed during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period.

Transformer: The main equipment suppliers are TBEA, Tianwei Power Transformer and china xd, and the bidding proportions of demonstration lines are 60%, 40% and 0% respectively. It is estimated that china xd has strong technical strength and will enjoy a certain share in the future, while other transformer enterprises are expected to get orders after comprehensive construction.

Reactor: From the bidding of demonstration line, china xd and TBEA account for 58% and 42% respectively. Considering the overall construction, it is estimated that other enterprises can share the market share of 10%~ 15%.

GIS: Gao Ping Electric Company, china xd Electric Company and New Northeast Electric Company all lead the world in bidding for demonstration lines, and it is difficult to switch combined electrical appliances. It is expected that after comprehensive construction, it will remain the three leading industries.

The construction progress of UHV air conditioning is lower than expected. At present, the southeast Shanxi-Jingmen capacity expansion line is being invited for bidding in an orderly manner, and the Ximeng-Nanjing line is expected to be approved this year. Investment and construction are expected to accelerate in the future, and the leading high-end primary equipment is still the beneficiary.