The asymmetric effect of monetary policy means that when the economy is overheated, the economic operation is tightened or suppressed by monetary policy, and the effect is obvious; When the economy is depressed, the effect of expanding or stimulating economic operation through monetary policy is not obvious. The following is a paper on monetary policy that I recommend to you for reference.

Model essay on monetary policy 1: An analysis of the current situation of monetary policy in China

abstract:

In recent years, China has been implementing a prudent monetary policy. It can be seen that its implementation should be effective. The central bank is becoming more and more mature in formulating and implementing monetary policies, and its ability of macro-financial regulation is also improving. However, there are still some problems in the practice of monetary policy. Seriously analyzing and solving these problems is conducive to further deepening financial reform and promoting the stable development of the national economy. Keywords: monetary policy, central bank, financial reform

Text:

The current economic situation is complex and changeable, and the central bank's attention to the situation depends more on grassroots investigation, monitoring and analysis. However, the monetary situation in China is closely related to the international monetary situation.

Overall: the current situation of China's monetary policy.

20 1 1 in the third quarter, China's economy continued to develop in the expected direction of macro-control, and the overall situation was good. The national economy has maintained steady and rapid development, and economic growth has changed from policy stimulus to independent growth in an orderly manner. Consumer demand has remained stable, investment in fixed assets has grown rapidly, foreign trade has become more balanced, domestic demand has become a stronger driving force for economic growth, agricultural production is in good condition, industrial production has grown steadily, residents' income has continued to increase, and the excessive price increase has been initially curbed. In the first three quarters, the gross domestic product (GDP) was 321trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and the consumer price rose by 5.7%.

In the third quarter, according to the unified deployment of the State Council, the People's Bank of China continued to implement a prudent monetary policy around the primary task of macro-control, focused on improving the pertinence, flexibility and effectiveness of the policy, comprehensively and alternately applied quantitative, price-based tools and macro-prudential policy tools, strengthened liquidity in the banking system management, guided the steady growth of money and credit, maintained a reasonable scale of social financing, and guided financial institutions to reasonably grasp the pace of credit supply and adjust the credit structure. At the same time, we will continue to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and steadily promote the reform of financial enterprises. Under the comprehensive effect of various measures, the growth of money and credit in 2009 gradually returned to normal from a high level, liquidity in the banking system was generally abundant, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate was enhanced, and the financial operation was stable.

The current stabilization of economic growth is the result of active regulation. For a period of time, the world economic situation is still complicated and changeable, the deep-seated impact of the international financial crisis continues to appear, and domestic economic development is also facing many new situations, changes and challenges. However, China's economy itself has a strong internal driving force for steady growth, and the macro-economy is expected to continue to maintain steady and rapid development.

Background: Problems existing in the current financial operation in China.

The China Financial Stability Report issued by the central bank pointed out: At present, China's finance is generally stable, but we still need to pay attention to the problems existing in the financial system. According to the report, at present, China's economic growth is highly dependent on investment and export, and there is a problem of unbalanced development among industries. Investment-driven economic growth is likely to lead to overheating in some industries and economic cycle fluctuations. The contribution of exports to economic growth is vulnerable to the pressure of international trade protectionism. The ups and downs of real estate, steel and other industries may lead to the lack of sustainability in business development. If the economic environment changes, it may affect the profitability and sustainable development ability of the real economy, which will eventually lead to the rise of non-performing assets of financial institutions and affect the stable operation of financial institutions and financial markets. At present, the development of direct financing in China is slow, the proportion of direct financing and indirect financing is unbalanced, and the bond market and

The development of the stock market is generally lagging behind, and corporate financing is highly dependent on the banking system. Banks have taken some risks that should have been borne by the financial market, and financial risks are concentrated in the banking industry. Accordingly, the hidden fiscal deficit caused by insufficient social security funds and local government debts may be transferred to the financial system, affecting financial stability. Therefore, external intervention in the financial system still exists. For a long time, the financial system has borne a lot of costs of enterprise restructuring. In the process of enterprise restructuring and bankruptcy, if the creditor's rights of banks cannot be guaranteed, it will be difficult to avoid the emergence of new non-performing assets. In addition, in China's social and economic activities, the credit restraint mechanism is not strong, and the phenomenon of ignoring credit and evading bank debts often occurs. Affect financial stability and even social stability.

Third, the ultimate goal: the regulatory goal of current monetary policy.

20 1 1 In the first half of the year, according to the unified arrangements of the State Council, the People's Bank of China continued to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintained the continuity and stability of the policy, made efforts to improve the pertinence and flexibility of the policy according to the new situation, strengthened liquidity in the banking system management, guided financial institutions to reasonably grasp the total amount, pace and structure of credit supply, continued to steadily promote the reform of financial enterprises, further promoted the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, improved foreign exchange management, and promoted stable and healthy economic development.

In the next stage, the national economy is expected to gradually move towards stable and sustainable growth on the basis of rapid recovery. The central government has introduced a series of new measures to promote economic growth, which is conducive to accelerating economic restructuring and forming a more sustainable economic growth point. However, the current domestic and international environment is still complicated and severe, and there are many uncertain and unstable factors in economic operation, so macro-control is facing a dilemma. The foundation of world economic recovery is still fragile, and the international financial environment is still unstable. Domestic private investment and endogenous growth momentum need to be strengthened, the task of expanding household consumption, improving income distribution and promoting economic restructuring and optimization is arduous, the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction is grim, the risks in the financial sector can not be ignored, the price situation is more complicated, and the management of inflation expectations still needs to be strengthened.

Tools of China People's Bank: Monetary policy measures currently adopted by China People's Bank.

In the third quarter of 201/kloc-0, according to the unified deployment of the State Council, the People's Bank of China continued to implement a prudent monetary policy, closely focused on the primary task of macro-control, focused on improving the pertinence, flexibility and effectiveness of the policy, strengthened the management of liquidity in the banking system, guided the steady growth of money and credit, maintained a reasonable scale of social financing, guided financial institutions to rationally grasp the pace of credit supply and adjust the credit structure, continued to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and made steady progress.

First, flexible open market operations.

1. Conduct open market operations in a timely and appropriate manner.

The People's Bank of China further strengthened the analysis and monitoring of various factors affecting liquidity supply and demand, and cooperated with other monetary policy tools to rationally adjust the level of liquidity in the banking system.

2. Optimize the combination of open market operation tools.

The People's Bank of China actively responded to short-term liquidity fluctuations caused by seasonal factors and changes in market environment. According to changes in supply and demand in liquidity in the banking system, it flexibly matched central bank bills and short-term repurchase to carry out hedging operations, timely increased short-term repurchase operations for seven days, continuously optimized the combination of open market operating tools, and further improved the pertinence and flexibility of hedging operations.

3. Reasonably grasp the flexibility of the operating interest rate in the open market.

In line with the adjustment of benchmark deposit and loan interest rates and liquidity management requirements, the People's Bank of China has played an important role in reasonably grasping the flexibility of open market operating interest rates, effectively guiding market expectations, and improving liquidity management.

4. Timely carry out cash management of the central treasury.

Second, further improve the deposit reserve system.

Since 2065438+01September, the People's Bank of China has included the deposit reserve, which will be gradually put in place within 3-6 months according to the liquidity of financial institutions. This is a routine adjustment and system improvement of the deposit reserve deposit base. We will continue to implement dynamic adjustment measures for differential reserves, appropriately adjust relevant parameters according to changes in the situation, and effectively guide financial institutions to maintain steady credit growth and optimize credit structure by linking credit growth with countercyclical capital requirements.

Third, raise the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans in a timely manner.

The People's Bank of China raised the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions on July 7th. Raising the benchmark interest rate of deposits and loans in a timely manner has played a positive role in stabilizing inflation expectations and guiding the reasonable growth of money and credit, and is also of positive significance for consolidating the effect of real estate regulation and control, optimizing the allocation of funds, and maintaining and increasing the wealth of residents.

Fourth, strengthen window guidance and credit policy guidance.

The People's Bank of China will continue to strengthen and improve window guidance, guide financial institutions to reasonably grasp the pace of credit supply, optimize the credit structure, and guard against credit risks.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) promotes the development of cross-border RMB business

On August 22nd, 2065438+0/KLOC-0, the People's Bank of China, together with five ministries and commissions, issued the Notice on Expanding RMB Settlement Areas for Cross-border Trade, which expanded the domestic geographical scope of RMB settlement for cross-border trade to the whole country. 10 On June 35438+03, the Ministry of Commerce issued the Notice on Issues Related to Cross-border RMB Direct Investment, and the People's Bank of China issued the Measures for the Administration of RMB Settlement of Foreign Direct Investment, allowing foreign investors to invest in China in RMB.

Sixth, improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.

In accordance with the principles of initiative, controllability and gradualism, we will continue to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism based on market supply and demand and focusing on adjustment with reference to a basket of currencies, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate and maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

Seven, continue to promote the reform of financial institutions.

Ask ABC to continue to deepen the reform of the system and mechanism and further increase its services? The input of agriculture, rural areas and farmers has been continuously improved? County financial services for agriculture, countryside and farmers. Continue to promote the reform of policy-oriented financial institutions.

Eight. Deepen the reform of foreign exchange management system

It keeps increasing, right? Hot money? Inflow inspection and blow. Strengthen the supervision of cross-border capital flows. Promote the reform of key areas of foreign exchange management such as trade in goods.

5. Transmission: the impact after the implementation of the current monetary policy.

First, the money market was active and the market interest rate dropped slightly.

The inter-bank repo and lending market is active, and the overall transaction volume has increased. From the perspective of term structure, market transactions are still mainly concentrated in overnight varieties, with repurchase and borrowing of overnight varieties accounting for 75.5% and 84.2% of their respective total, respectively, accounting for a year-on-year decrease of 4.5 and 3.5 percentage points. The cumulative transaction of national debt repurchase in the exchange market was 13.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202.2%.

Second, the yield curve of government bonds has generally moved up, and the scale of bond issuance has increased substantially.

The transaction volume of spot bonds in the inter-bank bond market has increased steadily. From the perspective of transaction subjects, state-owned commercial banks and foreign financial institutions are net buyers of the inter-bank spot bond market, with net purchases of 472,654.38 billion yuan and1646,543.8 billion yuan respectively; Other commercial banks and other financial institutions are the main net sellers, selling 494 billion yuan and 654.38+0.422 billion yuan respectively. The exchange traded 98.8 billion yuan of treasury bonds, a year-on-year decrease of 33.2 billion yuan.

Third, bill financing increased slightly, and the interest rate in the bill market fluctuated upward.

The balance of bill financing increased slightly, and the bill market was active. In the first three quarters, enterprises have issued commercial bills cumulatively.

Tickets 1 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%; Accumulated discount 18.2 trillion yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year. The unexpired amount of commercial paper at the end of the period was 6.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%; Discounted balance/kloc-0.5 trillion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year. In the third quarter, financial institutions continued to strengthen the adjustment of total credit and structure, and rationally controlled the growth of bill financing. The ending balance of bill financing increased by 654.38+0363 billion yuan compared with the end of last quarter and 654.38+062 billion yuan compared with the second quarter. The balance of bill financing accounted for 2.8% of all loans, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. Influenced by many factors, such as money market interest rate, changes in supply and demand in the bill market, the bill market interest rate continued to fluctuate upward in the third quarter, and the whole was at a historical high.

Fourth, the stock market index went down as a whole, and stock financing decreased.

The stock market index fell overall. At the end of September, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 2359 points and 10292 points respectively, down 14.6% and 15.0% respectively from the end of June. The average P/E ratio of A shares in Shanghai stock market dropped from 16.5 times at the end of June to 14.2 times at the end of September. The Shenzhen market fell from 30.7 times to 27.0 times. The growth enterprise market index has declined. At the end of September, the Growth Enterprise Market Index of Shenzhen Stock Exchange closed at 79 1, down 6.5% from the end of June.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) The total amount of insurance assets continues to grow rapidly.

In the first three quarters, the insurance industry realized a total premium income of 1. 1.3 trillion yuan; The accumulated compensation expenditure was 287.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.0%. Among them, property insurance claims increased by 24. 1%, and personal insurance claims increased by 30.3%.

Intransitive verbs are active in foreign exchange market.

RMB foreign exchange forward and? Foreign currency pair? The scale of transactions continued to expand rapidly. In the first three quarters, the spot turnover of RMB foreign exchange was US$ 2,766.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%; The cumulative turnover of RMB foreign exchange swap transactions was equivalent to USD 13 165 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%; The cumulative turnover of RMB foreign exchange forward market was $654.38+076.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2,343.0%. The first three quarters? Foreign currency pair? The cumulative turnover was equivalent to US$ 73.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 63.7%. Trading entities in the foreign exchange market have further increased.

7. The gold market is running smoothly.

The trend of domestic gold price is consistent with the international gold market, and the overall trend is fluctuating and rising. In the third quarter, the highest afternoon fixing price in London was $65,438 +0.895 per ounce, and the lowest was $65,438 +0.598 per ounce. The highest price of domestic gold (AU9995) is 395 yuan per gram, and the lowest price is 322 yuan per gram. At the end of September, the domestic gold closing price was 337.77 yuan per gram, up 7.9% from the end of June.

Six defects: the limitations of the current monetary policy.

1. It is getting more and more difficult to choose the total target of our macroeconomic policies, especially monetary policies, or the choice space is getting smaller and smaller. Throughout the tenth five-year plan period, a proactive fiscal policy means that the expansionary monetary policy remains unchanged. Under the complicated macroeconomic situation, it is different from the past. It is impossible to tighten and expand now. Our general goal is difficult to choose.

2. The direction of monetary policy and fiscal policy has been seriously disturbed. The prudent fiscal policy is still expanding, and the national debt has not decreased at all, which is a double expansion compared with previous years. Our fiscal expenditure policy does not hesitate to expand the deficit, which is the expansion of demand and the expansionary fiscal revenue. The direction of monetary authorities' policy and fiscal policy is different, one is expansion and the other is austerity, but this kind of austerity collocation is passive and helpless and needs to be adjusted.

3. There are stage differences in the behavior of the government, the main body of policy implementation. The behavior goal of our local government is now more and more like a company, the company is to maximize profits, and our local government is more and more to maximize fiscal revenue. This will form a relationship, and the economic driving force supporting its development is not finance, and the other is not banks. The development speed of each place has nothing to do with the level of savings. The speed of local economic growth depends on the speed of investment, and the speed of investment depends on the amount of savings. The investment of savings depends on the speed of investment. Therefore, there is a cyclical and anti-cyclical game in China's macro-economy.

4. The demand effect of monetary policy is decreasing. The decline is mainly in two aspects: on the one hand, it is the currency liquidity trap in China. We cut interest rates continuously and our savings are increasing. After the emergence or emergence of liquidity trap, especially when other investment channels of Chinese people are not smooth, the impact is not great. Therefore, there is a great pressure on the difference between deposits and loans in China's commercial banks. If the monetary policy adopts the policy of raising interest rates, from the demand point of view, inflation expectations are good, but people's expectations of inflation will not decrease. The effect of China's monetary policy demand is that there are new restrictions.

Seven summaries

Under the background of economic globalization, China's economic development is generally stable, showing a growth model. The monetary situation in China is relatively stable, but under the influence of the global financial crisis, many disadvantages have also been exposed, especially the continuous appreciation of the people's ratio in recent two years, which has had a negative impact on economic development. Therefore, although monetary policy can adjust the problems existing in the theory of economic development, it cannot take care of several things by itself. It is not enough to solve the problems existing in China's economic development by monetary policy alone. It is also essential for the government to promote the reform of the administrative system and adjust its own behavior.

References:

[1] Monetary Policy Analysis Group of China People's Bank: China Monetary Policy Implementation Report [N]. China Information News, 2011(11).

[2] Cong Ming: A correct understanding of China's proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy [J]. Ideological and theoretical education guide, 20 10(4).

[3] Yan Qingyue: On the coordination of China's fiscal policy and monetary policy [J]. Jinan Finance and Economics, 2008(3).

[4] National Bureau of Statistics Department of National Economic Accounting: How to grasp the coordinated use of fiscal policy and monetary policy [N]. China Information News, 20 10- 12-8.

Monetary Policy Model 2: Monetary Policy Model 2

abstract:

The United States introduced the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy

The influence of this policy on China's macro-economy is analyzed in detail. At the same time, how to deal with these influences, combined with the current macroeconomic situation in China, clearly pointed out the countermeasures that China should take. In a word, China's current economic development tends to be stable, so we should make appropriate monetary policy adjustment, change from moderately loose monetary policy to moderately stable one, and reduce monetary liquidity through a series of means such as raising interest rates, so as to effectively control domestic inflation and effectively resolve the risks brought by American policies to China's macroeconomic development.

Key words:

Quantitative easing, inflation control, capital, financial risk, exchange rate

1, Introduction

In March 2009, the United States launched the first round of quantitative easing monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve purchased10.7 trillion US dollars of US Treasury bonds and mortgage-related bonds in batches, which played an important role in saving the US financial system from collapse. 20 10, 1 1,1On October 3rd, the United States launched the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy. The Federal Reserve decided to buy 600 billion US dollars of long-term US Treasury bonds 20 1 1 before the end of June. When the real interest rate in the United States is close to zero, the Fed's decision is tantamount to injecting a lot of cash into the market. This policy will have a great impact on China, and we should deal with it cautiously.

2. The second round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States.

Scenes and functions

2. 1 Policy background

Affected by the financial crisis, American enterprises lack confidence and great willingness to invest, and American banks are afraid to invest and lend because of the heavy burden of bad debts, resulting in an increase in their unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate in the United States remains high for a long time, it may enter a relatively long-term stage of low growth or even negative growth. For the strategic consideration of the United States, the US government launched the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy.

2.2 Policy objectives

The new round of quantitative easing monetary policy implemented by the United States this time is mainly intended to prevent deflation and stimulate economic recovery by expanding investment and production.

2.3 Policy role

Although the funds released by this policy can make the asset price in the United States rise in the short term, which is manifested in the rise of the stock price, due to the problems in the American financial system itself, the final effect of this policy may be relatively limited. At present, American financial institutions are burdened with heavy debts or toxic assets and are highly cautious. Although the current monetary conditions are very loose and there are a lot of funds in China, we still think that the loan risk is too high and there is no willingness to lend. Therefore, the issued currency is invested abroad by various funds in various forms. Therefore, this fund failed to play an effective role in the United States.

3. The impact of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States on China.

3. 1 leads to the depreciation of foreign exchange reserves.

China has $2.5 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. After the US injected $600 billion into the market, it objectively led to the depreciation of the US dollar, which diluted China's use of the US dollar as a foreign exchange reserve asset. For China, which has 2.5 trillion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves, it will have a direct impact. Because this policy is likely to lead to a rise in domestic prices in the United States, resulting in a large number of investments in the US Treasury bond market shrinking, thus causing China's foreign exchange reserves to suffer a certain degree of loss.

3.2 lead to the influx of hot money

Due to the surplus of funds, all kinds of hot money in the United States, mainly hedge funds, will bring in a lot of hot money, causing various economic problems: First, it will impact the product market, bring about price increases and cause domestic inflation. Second, hot money may enter the capital market, real estate market and stock market, leading to a rapid rise in asset prices in the short term. If it can't be supported by asset returns or potential returns, it will definitely lead to a rapid decline in prices and the bursting of asset bubbles. Third, if the management is not good, hot money may appear quickly in a short time, which will have a significant impact on China's economic security.

3.3 triggered the rise in raw material prices

If the financial reform in the United States is held back by political factors and only issues money to solve economic problems, the resulting money surplus will cause the global raw material prices to rise. The rising price of raw materials will deal a great blow to China and other emerging market countries, because developed countries have completed industrialization and urbanization, and the demand for raw materials is smaller than that of emerging countries, while emerging countries are more dependent on raw materials, which will have an impact on China's economic development.

3.4 Derivative problems

If this policy fails to achieve the expected results, the US government will exert more pressure on China on the exchange rate issue, and if it is not handled properly, it will have a double impact on the economies of the two countries. If the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar appreciates on a large scale, some export enterprises in China will suffer losses. But in the short term, production factors such as equipment and manpower have been put into use, so we can't quit, so we must stick to production. However, for the importing countries represented by the United States, it is impossible to find a manufacturer to replace China suppliers or form productivity in a short time. Therefore, the huge appreciation in the short term can only be realized by exporters raising the prices of export commodities and transferring the appreciation pressure to American consumers, which will lead to the increase of inflation and unemployment rate in the United States, making it more difficult for ordinary American families to consume low-end products from China, resulting in a lose-lose situation between China and the United States.

4. China's countermeasures

4. 1 Appropriate sale of US Treasury bonds

Most American bonds in China are not linked to inflation, and the interest rate is fixed. If inflation in the United States reaches above 4%, China's foreign exchange reserve assets will generate negative returns. Therefore, China should properly sell some US dollar reserve assets when the price of US Treasury bonds rises in the short term to avoid excessive losses.

4.2 Interest rate in response to inflation expectations

The data of the third quarter of 20 10 shows that China's macroeconomic trend is rising steadily, so in the dilemma of maintaining growth and controlling inflation expectations, controlling inflation expectations has become the main contradiction. The urgent task for China's economy at present is to appropriately raise the deposit interest rate to make it higher than the published inflation figure, so as to change consumers' inflation expectations, stabilize price expectations and avoid excessive inflation. 2010165438+1October 19. The People's Bank of China announced that it would raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. Prior to this, the People's Bank of China raised interest rates for the first time since 2007, raising the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points. The continuous introduction of a series of actions by the central bank has sent a clear signal that it can stabilize the capital and curb inflation.

4.3 Prevention of systemic financial risks

4.3. 1 Do a good job in financial supervision.

Starting with adjusting China's current loose monetary policy, we should slow down the growth rate of money stock, at the same time do a good job in the supervision of financial markets and financial institutions, reduce the fluctuation range of capital inflows and outflows, and especially prevent large-scale capital outflows. By developing the capital market and expanding the stock market, bank deposits and other funds will be gradually and orderly directed outward.

4.3.2 Guide funds to invest abroad.

Guide funds to invest abroad in an orderly and step-by-step manner to effectively prevent systemic financial risks. We can also slow down the impact of rising raw material prices on China's economy by investing in mines and other resources.

4.3.3 Ensure the stability of the real estate market.

We should also pay attention to the development of the real estate market, realize real marketization and ensure the stability of the real estate market through comprehensive, thorough and systematic fiscal and tax reform.

4.4 properly handle exchange rate disputes

By changing the mode of production and adjusting the economic structure, China's trade surplus with the United States has been greatly reduced. Therefore, we must adhere to the exchange rate principle and resolutely not allow the RMB to appreciate too fast. Instead, we should make gradual and controllable adjustment and appreciation according to China's own economic situation and the needs of economic restructuring.

5. Summary

In a word, China should pay attention to the impact of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States on China's economy, strengthen research, deal with it cautiously, effectively resolve the impact from all sides, and ensure the steady, healthy and rapid growth of China's economy.