Professor Yang Qixian, Vice President of China Economic Reform Society
Today I will talk about two issues: the current economic situation and the current reform situation. Some views are purely personal for comrades to learn from.
I. Current economic situation and development prospects
Under the influence of active macro-control policies for three consecutive years, China's economy has undergone many new and gratifying changes since 2000, and the overall situation is relatively good. The specific performance is as follows:
1. Economic growth stopped falling and rebounded. In the early 1990s, the highest annual economic growth rate in China exceeded 14%. Due to economic overheating and inflation, macro-control has been implemented since the second half of 1993, and the speed has dropped by almost one percentage point every year, reaching a minimum of 7. 1% in 1999. Since 2000, this slowdown has been reversed, with an increase of 8.2% in the first three quarters compared with the same period of last year, which is more than one percentage point higher than the whole year of last year.
2. Domestic demand has rebounded in an all-round way. In view of the lack of demand and weak market in recent years, the government began to issue additional government bonds from 1998 to expand infrastructure investment. Increase employees' income and increase holiday days. Implement consumer credit. Measures such as improving social security have effectively promoted the recovery of domestic demand. From June 5438+0 to June 5438+0 1 in 2000, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 3.0 trillion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was accelerated by 3 percentage points. Investment in fixed assets 1.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 1.7%, and the growth rate accelerated by 4.9 percentage points.
3. Import and export trade has increased substantially. Since 2000, import and export trade has maintained rapid growth. The total import and export volume increased from 1 to 1 1, with a year-on-year increase of 33.4%, of which exports increased by 30. 1% and imports increased by 37.4%, both higher than the growth rate of the same period last year by more than 20 percentage points. 4. The economic benefits of enterprises have been significantly improved. From June 5438+0 to June 5438+0 1 in 2000, the accumulated profits of industrial enterprises reached more than 370 billion yuan, up 92% year-on-year. Among them, the profits of state-owned and state-holding enterprises increased by 1.4 times, while the losses decreased by 16.3%.
5. Deflation has eased, and the income of urban and rural residents has been increasing. From the second half of 1997, deflation began to appear in China, and the absolute level of consumer prices fell, with10.8% in 1998 and10.6% in 1999. In 2000, this trend basically reversed, from 1 to 1 1, with an increase of 0.2%. Calculated at comparable prices, the per capita cash income of farmers in the first three quarters of 2000 increased by 2.5% compared with the same period of last year, and the income of urban residents increased by 8.4%.
The above situation not only proves that we have achieved remarkable results in implementing a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, but also shows that we have successfully overcome the impact of the Asian financial crisis and made an important turn for the better in economic development. The disadvantage is that the current economic growth rate has rebounded, which is affected by policies. External factors, insufficient effective demand, unreasonable economic structure and other problems that hinder sustained economic growth have not been fundamentally solved. To this end, we decided to issue 50 billion yuan of government bonds in the fourth quarter, continue to expand investment and domestic demand, and promote strong market sales; Coupled with the optimistic international economy, exports will still maintain a certain growth. Coupled with the low growth base in the fourth quarter of last year, China's economy will continue to maintain a good development trend, and the annual growth rate may reach 8%, an increase of about one percentage point over the previous year. By the end of 2000, the Ninth Five-Year Plan can be completed in an all-round way, with an average growth rate of over 8% in five years, and the annual GDP will reach 1 trillion US dollars, with per capita exceeding 800 US dollars.
The Fifth Plenary Session of the 15th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held not long ago put forward the basic principles and target outline of China's economic development in the next stage. At present, the relevant departments are working out specific plans, which will be implemented after being approved by the National People's Congress at the beginning of next year. Its main tasks and development trends are:
1. Insist on maintaining a relatively fast economic growth rate. It is required to double the GDP of 2000 by 20 10, that is, the average annual growth rate will reach about 7.2%, which may be slightly higher in the first five years and slightly lower in the second five years. In order to further improve China's comprehensive national strength and international economic competitiveness, broaden employment channels, expand residents' income, and greatly improve the material and cultural life of urban and rural people.
2, to improve economic efficiency as the center, promote the strategic adjustment of economic structure. The key points are: optimizing the industrial structure and comprehensively improving the level and efficiency of agriculture, industry and service industry; Implementing the large-scale development of the western region, rationally adjusting the layout of productive forces and promoting the coordinated development of regional economy; Accelerate the pace of urbanization, gradually solve the long-term low level of urbanization, strive to achieve a benign interaction between urban and rural economies, and effectively improve the labor productivity and income level of rural residents; Strengthen infrastructure construction, improve the ecological environment, vigorously promote national economy and social informatization, and realize the rapid and sustainable development of social productive forces.
3. Deepen economic reform and do a good job in system innovation and scientific and technological innovation. This is the key to promoting economic development and structural adjustment. The key points are: further opening up the market, establishing and perfecting a unified, fair competition, standardized and orderly market system throughout the country; Continue to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises, vigorously develop the private economy, and establish a modern enterprise system with clear property rights, clear rights and responsibilities, separation of government from enterprises and scientific management; Deepen financial reform, improve financial organization system, strengthen financial supervision and guard against financial risks; Further streamline administrative institutions, transform government functions, minimize administrative examination and approval of economic affairs, do not directly interfere with the production and business activities of enterprises, and eliminate various institutional obstacles that hinder the development of productive forces. At the same time, we will continue to implement the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education, accelerate scientific and technological progress and personnel training, actively promote high-tech research with strategic significance, concentrate our efforts on making breakthroughs in information technology, biotechnology, new material technology, advanced manufacturing technology, aerospace technology and other fields, and constantly provide strong technical support for the country's modernization drive.
4. Further opening to the outside world and improving the environment for foreign investment. With China's entry into the World Trade Organization, China is faced with introducing more capital, technology and management experience. It is necessary to combine the absorption of foreign capital with the adjustment of industrial structure, the reorganization and transformation of state-owned enterprises and the large-scale development of the western region, and gradually promote the opening up of banking, insurance, telecommunications, foreign trade, domestic trade, tourism and other service fields. Gradually implement national treatment for foreign capital, and boldly absorb and learn from all business methods and management methods that meet the requirements of socialized mass production. We will promptly clean up, revise and improve relevant economic laws and regulations, protect the legitimate rights and interests of foreign businessmen in accordance with the law, deepen the reform of the foreign trade system, and establish and improve a foreign-related legal system and foreign trade and economic cooperation system in line with international norms and China's national conditions.
It can be predicted that in the coming new century, China's economy will surely have greater development at a new starting point.
Second, the current economic system reform.
China's economic system reform actually started with 1957. At that time, it was mainly about collecting income and adjusting affiliation in administrative authority. Although it has been explored for twenty years, it has not achieved great success because of the wrong method. After the reform and opening up, after summing up experience, I realized that the main thing is to solve the relationship between planning and market, and I saw many disadvantages of planned economy. I propose to carry out market-oriented reform, gradually expand the market share, reduce the planned share, and make the reform move forward step by step. However, whether socialism can be a market economy or a commodity economy is controversial in theory, and it is impossible to make great strides in reform. It was not until the early 1990s that Comrade Xiaoping made a speech on inspection in the south that this problem was solved. Before that, many comrades thought that the planned economy was socialism and the market economy was capitalism. However, Comrade Xiaoping clearly pointed out that a planned economy does not mean socialism, and capitalism also has plans. Market economy is not equal to capitalism, and socialism also has a market. Planning and market are both means to regulate the economy, not the standard to distinguish socialism from capitalism. In this way, this theoretical problem was finally broken through at the 14th Party Congress of 1992, and it was not easy to clearly put forward that the goal of reform was to establish a socialist market economy. How should we establish a socialist market economy? The 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly stipulates that there are four main aspects of reform. From now on, great progress has been made in these four aspects of reform.
The first aspect of reform is to establish and develop a real market as a mechanism for the whole economy. To develop a market economy, there must be a market. Without the market, it can't be a market economy. Moreover, this market is not only a general market, but also a unified, open and competitive market. It is not just a commodity market, but a comprehensive market including various factors of production. From this perspective, we have made great progress in market reform, which can also be said to be the greatest progress in economic reform. The commodity market has been basically established. Because there is no market, the most important measure is price, that is, whether the price is set by the state or whether the market fluctuates according to the relationship between supply and demand. If it is stipulated by the state, it is not a real market, but a simulated market, and the market cannot be simply measured by whether there is anything to sell. Things used to be sold for a long time, even in the most difficult period. There are even dazzling displays in some places, but this is not a real market, but a simulated market, because the price is stipulated by the state. From this perspective, the current changes are considerable. For example, before the reform and opening up, more than 95% of the prices of consumer goods were set by the state plan, and now more than 95% have become market decisions. The purchase price of means of production and agricultural and sideline products used to be almost 100% determined by the state plan, but now about 80% (some people say 85%) is determined by the market. This shows that the commodity market has basically taken shape. Of course, it is impossible to completely liberalize the price, and no country has completely liberalized it. There are several prices, such as public facilities. Generally speaking, energy prices should still be controlled by the state, but the management methods should be changed.
There are two main factor markets, one is the capital market and the other is the labor market. Now it seems that the gap is still very big. The measure of the capital market is whether interest rates (including exchange rates) are liberalized, which is not yet available. The measure of the labor market is whether employment and wages are determined by the market. There are two situations at present. The employment and wages of non-state-owned enterprises have basically been marketized, and the labor force of state-owned enterprises has not yet entered the market.
The second aspect of reform is the reform of enterprise system and mechanism, which is very fundamental. With the market, whether the market can run well depends on whether the main body of market operation, that is, whether the system and mechanism of enterprises can adapt to the market. From this point of view, there are basically two situations at present: the system and mechanism of non-state-owned enterprises have basically adapted to the market economy, so they have developed rapidly and well, which is the most important growth point of the current economy; The system and mechanism of state-owned enterprises are not adapted to the market economy. Although the country has given many preferential policies, the difficulties are still great, which has affected the whole economic development. A very critical issue affecting the whole reform.
The third aspect of reform is macro management. Basically divided into two parts, one part is the reform of macro-control means, or the establishment of new macro-control means; The other part is the reform of macro-management system. Great achievements have been made in the reform of new macro-control measures. In the past, macro-control measures mainly relied on mandatory plans and administrative orders and took the form of direct control. The market economy cannot be directly regulated, but indirectly regulated by economic means. Some are mandatory, and we can only take legal measures. From this point of view, we have made great achievements, and a new macro-control system based on finance, taxation, especially financial means has been basically established, which plays a decisive role in macro-control. However, the reform of macro-management system is progressing slowly. Mainly the reform of the government itself and the streamlining of institutions. The progress of functional transformation is relatively slow.
The fourth aspect is the reform of distribution and social security system, which has also made considerable progress. Especially in the distribution system and distribution principle, there has been a great breakthrough. In the past, distribution was said to be distribution according to work, but it was actually egalitarian distribution, an iron rice bowl and a pot of rice. Now it is clear in theory that the distribution system should adhere to the principle of distribution according to work, but also adhere to the principle of giving priority to efficiency and giving consideration to fairness. This is very important. Because there is interest, it is possible to distribute, and without interest, there is nothing to distribute. At the same time, it is further clarified that distribution according to work should be the main body, but production factors such as capital, technology and management should also participate in distribution. These aspects are currently being promoted. An important aspect of the reform of distribution system is the reform of social security system. Whether reasonable and fair distribution can be achieved, whether social stability can be guaranteed and whether people's unity can be maintained is a very important and key issue. This aspect was not done enough in the past, but it is being promoted now.
From the above four aspects, it shows that the reform has made great achievements. It is precisely because the progress of reform has greatly promoted the development of productive forces and the improvement of people's living standards that the country's economic outlook has indeed undergone earth-shaking changes. The main problem now is uneven development, and some reforms in various fields have made rapid progress, while others have made slow progress. For example, in the market, the appearance of the commodity market cannot be changed after its establishment and progress, and it also affects other reforms, such as the reform of the financial system and the labor system. The 15th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has made it clear that the direction of state-owned enterprise reform is to establish a modern enterprise system with clear property rights, clear rights and responsibilities, separation of government from enterprises and scientific management. The specific organizational forms are company system and joint-stock system. There are two main ways: one is to adjust and improve the ownership structure, which is essentially a part of transfer and withdrawal; One is to establish a modern enterprise system, that is, to carry out standardized company restructuring. With the spirit of these instructions, the reform process of state-owned enterprises can be completely accelerated. Judging from the current progress, it is relatively fast to adjust the ownership structure, and it is relatively slow to reorganize according to the standardized corporate system, because we have not found feasible and mature experience on how to do a good job in the standardized corporate system reorganization, including how to realize equity diversification, how to establish a scientific corporate governance structure, and how to establish an effective incentive and balance mechanism for operators, and there may be a process of exploration. The third aspect is that the macro-control system should be further improved. The tax system, financial system and financial system need to be further improved, but the most important thing is to speed up the reform of macro-management system, that is, streamline government institutions and change functions. At present, people pay more attention to streamlining institutions, but the transformation of functions is not ideal, and it is often a form of controlling enterprises and controlling the economy. For example, in the past, the planned economy was controlled by administrative orders and mandatory plans, but now there are really few such aspects, and there are not many mandatory plans. However, in order to protect their rights and interests, many places try their best to create various examination and approval items, and everything must be approved by him. This is absolutely impossible. Now the central government attaches great importance to this problem and must find ways to solve it. Shenzhen has solved this problem very well, and most of the approved projects have been cancelled. Because this problem is not solved, enterprises can't survive. Moreover, the transparency of the examination and approval economy is worse than that of the planned economy, which may bring more problems such as trading power and money and abusing power for personal gain. Therefore, the transformation of functions must be thorough, and the original planning power must not be turned into the approval power. The fourth aspect is the reform of distribution and social security system. At present, the most prominent thing is that the reform of social security system is not promoted quickly, which affects and restricts the development of state-owned enterprise reform. Because the reform of state-owned enterprises is bound to divert laid-off workers, but no one "covers the bottom". Of course, it is not difficult to promote the reform of the social security system. For example, the central government announced the reform plan of retirement pension system and the reform plan of public medical system in social security system last year. These plans are all good, but they are difficult to implement. The biggest difficulty is that the long-term accumulated social security fund debts cannot be solved. It is said that this debt is at least 3 trillion yuan, which is really difficult to solve. However, the social security system is an important means to maintain social stability and the basic guarantee for the lives of the broad masses of workers. We must find a quick solution to this problem.
Generally speaking, our reform has made great achievements, but the development is uneven, some are fast and some are slow, and the backwardness is mainly in the factor market, the reform of state-owned enterprises, the transformation of government functions, the establishment of social security system and so on. We must make up our minds to speed up the reform in these areas and make it generally linked with the reform in other areas. Because the system is the system, as a system, it should be standardized and generally balanced with each other. Without solving this problem, many chaotic phenomena in our current economic life will be difficult to solve, and unhealthy practices and corruption will be difficult to eradicate. Moreover, to solve these problems, a relatively perfect legal system will eventually be formed so that all parties can act according to law, which is absolutely indispensable for the implementation of the market economy. Therefore, we must speed up the reform and strive to build a relatively perfect socialist market economic system in China in about 10 years.
This article is an academic report made by the author at the fourth congress of China Grain Economic Society. )